The NFL futures betting markets start reacting immediately after the draft begins. Super Bowl odds, division winners markets and, of course, Rookie of the Year odds all move dramatically with the announcement of new draft picks. In 2025, some teams moved 10% on Super Bowl lines after the draft was finalized. However, the 2026 draft is a complicated picture. 

With teams prioritising defensive structure over offense in the 2025/26 season, the top positions of the 2026 draft were  light on quarterbacks and heavy on edge rushers, linebackers and cornerbacks. Add to that the top two QB picks, Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders (1) and Ty Simpson to the Rams (13), both looking to possibly sit out for at least the start of the season – this year’s odds haven’t moved as much as they have in the past. This is what you need to know about the 2026 rookie class and how they’re already shaping futures odds going into the season.

Rookie QBs May Not Have Immediate Impact 

Mendoza was undoubtedly the highlight pick of 2026. The Heismann-winning, god-fearing, dedicated professional was an absolute revelation at Indiana, leading them to an undefeated 16-0 season with rushing heroics, 41 TDs and 72% pass completion.

However – it looks increasingly likely that he won’t be the Raiders starting QB at Week 1. This has been an emerging trend for rookie quarterbacks, and the betting markets are already forming around the news. 

In many years, a traditionally dominant first pick QB like Mendoza going to a struggling team like the Raiders would have seen him as favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year right from the off.

However, this year most sportsbooks have third pick running back Jeremiyah Love as favorite. Mendoza is averaging around +375 on the moneyline for the Offensive Rookie award where Love is around +250. Implying neither as heavy favorite, but giving Love an around 7% implied edge in the market’s eyes. 

Mendoza, one of the highest rated QB prospects in years, is only around +1500 to win the Offensive Player of the Year trophy – or around 0.7% implied probability. Showing just how quickly the market has judged that he won’t have a huge impact this year. That is reflected in the Raiders Super Bowl odds change too, which have increased just 0.2% on average since the draft.

Meanwhile edge rushers like Love are much easier to slot into teams, and can have immediate explosive impact. Which is a specialisation of Love, who has had some of the highest explosive rushing yards in college football history. 

In such an uncertain market like 2026/27 NFL futures, bettors looking to make long shot futures often consider free bets or other promos for these more speculative bets. Comparison sites provide resources like a a regularly refreshed list of sportsbook promo codes from major operators, which give all the options to assess side-by-side. 

The second highest QB draft pick was Alabama’s Ty Simpson to the LA Rams. The somewhat surprise pick also looks likely to sit out for at least the start of the season under Matthew Stafford, so his odds of making a big impact in 2026/27 are already low. 

So why is the market so uncertain this year? And what about defensive rookies? 

Defensive Stars Could be Bigger Betting Darlings in 2026

The 2025/26 NFL saw teams put a lot of pressure on QBs. Leading to a Super Bowl contested by two defensively dominant teams. This shift has influenced the draft and initial betting odds for 2026/27 in many ways. 

The Defensive Rookie of the Year has a lot more players from the top 10 picks in contention as betting market considerations. Including:

• David Bailey — (Pick 2) — Odds: +550
• Rueben Bain Jr. — (Pick 15) — Odds: +700
• Arvell Reese — (Pick 5) — Odds: +800
• Caleb Downs — (Pick 11) — Odds: +950
• Sonny Styles — (Pick 7) — Odds: +950

Bain Jr. is interestingly high up in the betting odds, at only 15th in the draft. This shows just how much pass rushing and pressures are now seen as a vital part of the game, with two edge rushers taking the betting favorites for Defensive Rookie of the Year positions. 

Bailey in particular was seemingly prioritised by the Jets for his high number of sacks (14.5) for Texas Tech, which is an increasingly valuable skill for teams looking to shore up defenses. 

These positions can impact betting perception quickly, as pressures and sacks are very noticeable and immediately impact games. 

Why Futures Markets Can Be Volatile

Because the outcomes of futures are decided far off – in the future – they are always riskier bets when made early in the season. Rookie hype can dramatically swing odds on many futures before any preseason games or even training camps have taken place. 

Putting a bet on at this time could give bettors an edge if things change significantly during preseason. For example a preseason injury to Matthew Stafford at the Rams or Kirk Cousins at the Raiders could easily throw two new highly-rated rookie QBs into the mix early – which could shake up the markets even further. 

QBs historically move markets more than any ever other player, but because of the defensive turn of the league and a lack of top-tier options outside of Mendoza, there effect has been limited this year. 

Interestingly, Super Bowl futures betting has seen no team rise or fall more than 3% in betting odds since the draft. Showing the markets consider no single team have to gained clear advantage on draft picks alone. Kansas City Chiefs fell off the most so far – at around a 2% drop in implied probability