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NFL Matchup Hub 2026 › Week 10 matchup
Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15 · Line: Packers -3.5 (Circa)
Every number below comes from the two team pages. The highlighted side and the arrow mark the better number in each row; ties are marked even, n/a = nothing to compare yet. No predictions.
| Vikings | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| #11 | Power rank ▶ | #10 |
| 6-2 | Record (straight up) ◀ | 6-3 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread even | 4-4-1 |
| 3-1on the road | ATS on the road / at home even | 3-1at home |
| 1-2as underdog | ATS as favorite / underdog ▶ | 2-3as favorite |
| +2.5pts per game | Avg. cover margin ◀ | +2pts per game |
| +30 | Point differential ◀ | +25 |
| 18.2avg. opp. rank | Strength of schedule so far ▶ | 17.7avg. opp. rank |
| #17 | Net EPA rank ▶ | #3 |
Strength of schedule: average power rank of opponents at kickoff, lower = tougher, so the tougher schedule is marked. EPA ranks: Week 2 onward, #1 is best on both sides of the ball.
| Vikings offense | Packers defense | |
|---|---|---|
| #29 | EPA per play ▶ | #8 |
| #18 | Dropback EPA ▶ | #3 |
| #29 | Rush EPA ▶ | #15 |
| #22 | Success rate ▶ | #19 |
| #1328.1% of dropbacks | Pressure rate allowed vs. pressure rate ◀ | #1928.2% of dropbacks |
| Vikings defense | Packers offense | |
|---|---|---|
| #3 | EPA per play ◀ | #5 |
| #1 | Dropback EPA ◀ | #5 |
| #20 | Rush EPA ◀ | #28 |
| #5 | Success rate ◀ | #18 |
| #139.9% of dropbacks | Pressure rate vs. pressure rate allowed ◀ | #2129.4% of dropbacks |
Every game in order, Week 1 first. Opp. rank = where I had the opponent in my power rankings in effect at kickoff. Recaps are mine, word for word.
Opponent's group in my power rankings at kickoff: Group A Group B Group C Group D Group F
Minnesota VikingsVIKINGS 39, Packers 22 (MIN -1.5). The Vikings couldn't get anything going for most of the afternoon with Carson Wentz, while the Packers hit numerous big plays. Everything changed in the fourth quarter. The Vikings were bailed out by numerous defensive penalties on route to a touchdown and then they pressured Jordan Love heavily. 419-239 GB, 6.3-3.9 GB
Vikings 9, BEARS 3 (CHI -4.5). This was a windy and wet game where both offenses struggled. Caleb Williams got hurt in the fourth quarter. Tyson Bagent got the Bears close to winning, but couldn't complete the drive. 297-246 CHI, 4.8-4.2 MIN
Vikings 23, BUCCANEERS 16 (TB +1). The Buccaneers looked in disarray the entire game. They made many mistakes, including allowing a punt return touchdown and having a hold negate an 87-yard touchdown pass to Chris Godwin. Baker Mayfield got hurt at the end. 243-230 TB, 4.2-3.8 MIN
VIKINGS 15, Dolphins 10 (MIN -10.5). The Vikings dominated time of possession by 20 minutes and Malik Willis didn't even get 10 completions. They couldn't convert in the red zone. All the Dolphins could manage was a long touchdown run by Ollie Gordon. 336-198 SEA, 6.7-4.0 SEA
Vikings 23, SAINTS 13 (NO +2). The Vikings made some mistakes, including an Aaron Jones fumble in the red zone and a Myles Price returned fumble for a touchdown, but Kyler Murray completed most of his passes and made plays with his legs to get the victory. 364-142 MIN, 5.4-3.3 MIN
VIKINGS 16, Colts 10 (MIN -6.5). The Colts went up 7-0 and 10-6 early with some big Jonathan Taylor runs, but the Vikings blanked the Colts in the second half with the help of two missed field goals. Kyler Murray had a long scramble to set up the go-ahead touchdown. 275-218 MIN, 4.9-3.7 MIN
LIONS 19, Vikings 15 (DET -3.5). The Lions moved the ball well in between the 20s but bogged down in Vikings territory. They finally got over the hump twice in the second half, while their defense clamped down on the Vikings except for one late drive. 384-266 DET, 5.6-5.3 DET
Bills 23, VIKINGS 6 (MIN +3.5). The Bills saw lots of pressure from the Vkings, but Josh Allen was able to overcome four sacks and make enough plays to win the game. The Vikings had just nine first downs, some of which came on the final drive in garbage time. 339-178 BUF, 4.3-3.9 BUF
Green Bay PackersVIKINGS 39, Packers 22 (MIN -1.5). The Vikings couldn't get anything going for most of the afternoon with Carson Wentz, while the Packers hit numerous big plays. Everything changed in the fourth quarter. The Vikings were bailed out by numerous defensive penalties on route to a touchdown and then they pressured Jordan Love heavily. 419-239 GB, 6.3-3.9 GB
Packers 20, JETS 17 (NYJ +3.5). The Jets were up 17-3 with their defense smothering Jordan Love, but Jordan Love led a comeback with some clutch plays by Jordan Love and increased pressure from Lukas Van Ness. The Jets helped with a personal foul penalty in overtime. 285-199 NYJ, 4.0-4.0 tie
Falcons 35, PACKERS 14 (GB -4.5). The Packers couldn't pass protect or run the ball, and they had severe issues stopping Bijan Robinson. The Packers went up 7-0 but allowed 27 consecutive points after that. 498-328 ATL, 7.5-5.2 ATL
Packers 17, BUCCANEERS 14 (TB +3.5). The Packers squandered numerous opportunities in the red zone with turnovers, and they were given those scoring chances because Jalon Daniels gave them possessions on two interceptions. 283-275 GB, 5.1-4.5 GB
PACKERS 31, Bears 7 (GB +1.5). Jordan Love completed a million Hail Marys in this game despite getting nothing from his running game, while Tyson Bagent was so bad that he was benched for Case Keenum. 428-246 GB, 7.3-3.6 GB
PACKERS 23, Cowboys 13 (GB -1). The Packers converted all of their third-and-longs, while the Cowboys managed only seven points until the final minute because their receivers inexplicably couldn't get open. Dallas committed two turnovers just outside the red zone. 318-303 GB, 4.5-4.3 GB
LIONS 20, Packers 17 (DET -3). Both teams moved the ball well in between the 20s, but constantly squandered opportunities in the red zone with fourth-down failures and turnovers. The Packers missed two field goals, and Detroit won with a short kick at the end. 415-324 DET, 6.3-5.0 DET
PACKERS 27, Panthers 19 (GB -3.5). The Packers made special teams mistakes and fumbles to allow the Panthers to hang around for a while, but Carolina forgot to run the ball after having success early to allow the Packers to take control of this game. This was 27-13 before a late touchdown. 354-258 GB, 5.3-3.7 GB
Packers 45, PATRIOTS 27 (NE -3). The Packers threw all over the Patriots with Matthew Golden having an amazing first half. The Patriots spent their time turning the ball over all afternoon, and one late touchdown came in garbage time. 478-387 GB, 7.5-6.3 GB
Key: F = Full in practice · L = Limited in practice · D = Did not practice · IR = Injured Reserve · PUP = Physically unable to perform · CE = Commissioner's Exempt List. Numbers are game weeks.
All Week 10 matchups · Minnesota Vikings team page · Green Bay Packers team page
