This is a list of my top 2018 fantasy football busts - players you should avoid unless they fall far in your draft. The Average Draft Position (ADP) is found on FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
I was dead on with some of my busts last year, namely Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Chris Ivory and Doug Martin, all of whom were being chosen in the sixth round or earlier. However, I whiffed big time on two players: Devonta Freeman and Julian Edelman.
Lamar Miller, RB, Texans. ADP: 3.12.
Lamar Miller fell out of favor with the Texans' coaching staff late last year. And yet, he's being drafted in the third round? Why? I'm not convinced Miller would make the 53-man roster if D'Onta Foreman were ready go by the season opener. Miller stinks, and Houston's coaches know that he's completely worn down. Foreman is currently injured, so it looks like Miller will start during the beginning of the regular season, but the Texans know that won't be the case as the year progresses. If you're into drafting running backs who will break down by Week 7, select Miller in your leagues.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks. ADP: 6.08.
Rashaad Penny weighed in at 236 pounds this week, up 16 from what he was at the NFL Scouting Combine in February. This is troubling news, and it's yet another reason to avoid Penny in your fantasy drafts.
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans. ADP: 2.12.
Derrick Henry's early third-round ADP is way too rich for my blood. He's going to split the workload with Dion Lewis this season, so spending such a high pick on him will just set you up for disappointment. Henry posted 744 rushing yards last year on a 4.2 YPC, but remember that he had two meaningless long runs at the end of games that were already decided, skewing his stats.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Rams. ADP: 4.12.
Jared Goff didn't mesh well with Sammy Watkins last year, so why are people assuming that he'll have great chemistry with Brandin Cooks? I think Goff will take a step backward this year because of Greg Olson's departure, which doesn't bode well for Cooks' fantasy outlook.
Josh Gordon, WR, Browns. ADP: 4.10.
Josh Gordon could have a big year, but the fact that he's not practicing right now with his new quarterback could set him back to start the season. There's also a chance Gordon could get into trouble at some point, so I think it's too much of a risk to take him in the fourth round.
Update: Josh Gordon is has been cleared to practice, but he's now missing practice with hamstring tightness. Players who hold out typically suffer minor injuries like this that add up. Gordon didn't technically hold out, but he has missed tons of practice, so it'll take him a while to get up to full speed.
Ronald Jones, RB, Buccaneers. ADP: 7.04.
Everyone assumes Ronald Jones will win Tampa's starting running back job, but he's been very unimpressive in training camp and the preseason. Given his struggles, as well as Peyton Barber's fierce work ethic, it seems like Jones will be watching Barber from the sidelines more often than not this year.
Jordan Howard, RB, Bears. ADP: 2.04.
Jordan Howard could score a bunch of touchdowns this year, but he'll need to in order to be a great fantasy player. Tarik Cohen will be a larger part of the offense, according to new head coach Matt Nagy. I don't hate Howard, but 2.04 is a bit too early for him.
Allen Robinson, WR, Bears. ADP: 5.08.
I don't trust Allen Robinson. He's a very talented receiver who has posted big-time stats in the past, but that hasn't occurred recently. He missed most of 2017, but he mailed in his 2016 season. The amount of lethargy he displayed was appalling, so I'm not sure he'll be putting forth full effort now that he has a new contract.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings. ADP: 7.12.
"What!?" This was my reaction to seeing Kirk Cousins having a 5.12 ADP back in May (now 7.12.) I don't get it. Cousins is a solid quarterback, but he's not anything spectacular. He's also not going to have to throw all that much on his new team because of the Vikings' stellar defense.
Drew Brees, QB, Saints. ADP: 6.06.
Drew Brees is still a great quarterback in real life, but anyone expecting great fantasy numbers from him will be disappointed. Brees saw his yardage and touchdowns fall from 5,208 and 37 to 4,334 and 23, respectively. This was no accident, as the Saints have a much better defense and running game now, so Brees doesn't have to throw nearly as often.