This is a list of my top 2018 fantasy football busts - players you should avoid unless they fall far in your draft. The Average Draft Position (ADP) is found on FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
I was dead on with some of my busts last year, namely Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Chris Ivory and Doug Martin, all of whom were being chosen in the sixth round or earlier. However, I whiffed big time on two players: Devonta Freeman and Julian Edelman.
Lamar Miller, RB, Texans. ADP: 4.07.
Lamar Miller fell out of favor with the Texans' coaching staff late last year. And yet, he's being drafted in the fourth round? Why? I'm not convinced Miller will make the 53-man roster if D'Onta Foreman is ready to go by the season opener.
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans. ADP: 2.10.
Derrick Henry's second-round ADP is way too rich for my blood. He's going to split the workload with Dion Lewis this season, so spending such a high pick on him will just set you up for disappointment. Henry posted 744 rushing yards last year on a 4.2 YPC, but remember that he had two meaningless long runs at the end of games that were already decided, skewing his stats.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers. ADP: 2.08.
If you want to spend a late second-round pick on Christian McCaffrey in a PPR league, that's perfectly understandable. However, this ADP is for standard leagues, and 2.08 is way too early for McCaffrey, who will split the rushing workload with C.J. Anderson.
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos. ADP: 5.05.
Demaryius Thomas is destroying his body with the same horrible diet that ended Arian Foster's career. I'd avoid Thomas unless he happened to fall to the seventh round of a 12-team league.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Rams. ADP: 4.07.
Jared Goff didn't mesh well with Sammy Watkins last year, so why are people assuming that he'll have great chemistry with Brandin Cooks? I think Goff will take a step backward this year because of Greg Olson's departure, which doesn't bode well for Cooks' fantasy outlook.
Jordan Howard, RB, Bears. ADP: 2.05.
Jordan Howard could score a bunch of touchdowns this year, but he'll need to in order to be a great fantasy player. Tarik Cohen will be a larger part of the offense, according to new head coach Matt Nagy.
Jordy Nelson, WR, Raiders. ADP: 5.09.
Jordy Nelson could bounce back this year, but using a fifth-round pick on him seems way too optimistic. Nelson looked done in 2017, struggling to gain any sort of separation. I was hoping to get Nelson at a bargain price this summer - 10th round or so - but that apparently won't be happening.
Allen Robinson, WR, Bears. ADP: 5.01.
I don't trust Allen Robinson. He's a very talented receiver who has posted big-time stats in the past, but that hasn't occurred recently. He missed most of 2017, but he mailed in his 2016 season. The amount of lethargy he displayed was appalling, so I'm not sure he'll be putting forth full effort now that he has a new contract.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings. ADP: 7.02.
"What!?" This was my reaction to seeing Kirk Cousins having a 5.12 ADP back in May (now 7.02.) I don't get it. Cousins is a solid quarterback, but he's not anything spectacular. He's also not going to have to throw all that much on his new team because of the Vikings' stellar defense.
Drew Brees, QB, Saints. ADP: 5.07.
Drew Brees is still a great quarterback in real life, but anyone expecting great fantasy numbers from him will be disappointed. Brees saw his yardage and touchdowns fall from 5,208 and 37 to 4,334 and 23, respectively. This was no accident, as the Saints have a much better defense and running game now, so Brees doesn't have to throw nearly as often.