Brown beats out the other top receivers due to his consistency and extremely high floor. Beckham and Hopkins have just as much upside as Brown, but they just haven't proven they have that consistency yet.
2. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans. Bye: 9.
Nuk has had bad luck with quarterbacks, but last season, he still put up huge numbers with rotten quarterback play, while also showing that a healthy DeShaun Watson can only help him.
3. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants. Bye: 8.
Beckham Jr. probably has more upside than both of these guys, but a not-that-effective Eli Manning is what knocks his ranking down to third for me. It is nice to have such a strong group of receivers and running backs to pick from for your first round.
4. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons. Bye: 11.
What do you do with a talent like Jones, who can't seem to score touchdowns? You rank them high because they still put up good numbers without the touchdowns, plus he can sometimes, once in a blue moon, get into the end zone. And, Jones' three touchdowns last season were an outlier even for him, so expect 6-8, which are around his average. If he would have gotten just six touchdowns this season, he would have finished as a top-four fantasy receivers.
5. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints. Bye: 5.
Thomas had trouble getting into the end zone in 2017, as the Saints were often run-heavy, but he's the no-doubt No. 1 receiver on a good offense. I expect we'll see an increase to better touchdown numbers moving forward.
6. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals. Bye: 9.
Green had a down 2017, but still finished as a top-10 fantasy receiver. We know his upside is much higher than that, but it would be tough to draft for that upside this season.
7. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers. Bye: 11.
Allen had a great rookie season and then two seasons marred by injury. Last season, we finally got to see what Allen is capable of outside of that rookie year, and he was great. Even with just six touchdowns, Allen finished as the third-best fantasy wide receiver in PPR leagues. There's no reason to believe things will change in 2018.
8. Davante Adams, WR, Packers. Bye: 4.
Adams got a big new contract, while Randall Cobb and/or Jordy Nelson could be released to save money, but even if they aren't, Adams is the No. 1 receiver now and has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. Adams on any other team would be good, but Rodgers elevates him into a second-round pick.
9. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers. Bye: 6.
Evans has now gone through a great season, a poor season, a great season again and then a poor season again. If the pattern holds, then we get a great season in 2018! Of course, that's not how this works, but we know what he can do and we know he's stayed relatively healthy and will continue to see good target numbers. His floor isn't as high as I'd like, but his ceiling is.
10. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks. Bye: 5.
Baldwin continues to put up good numbers while not seeing the targets his talent level demands. If Jimmy Graham heads to a new team, I do think Baldwin will have more touchdowns than last season.
11. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts. Bye: 10.
This ranking leans on the hope that Andrew Luck returns in 2018. The news isn't bad, but it's also not overly reassuring, so I wouldn't take Hilton too early just yet.
12. Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs. Bye: 5.
Hill had plenty of doubters coming into last season, but he proved that he could take on the role of a No. 1 receiver and thrive. He'll have Pat Mahomes as his quarterback this season, so there will be some more doubt cast on this upcoming season, but even if there are some major learning curves, Mahomes looks good enough to keep Hill as a strong fantasy receiver.
13. Brandin Cooks, WR, Patriots. Bye: 9.
Cooks isn't going to be Randy Moss, so he will continue to see ebbs and flows as New England's No. 1 receiver. Julian Edelman will return and likely so will Gronkowski, so you just have to take Cooks' inconsistency because you know he's going to put up good overall numbers in this offense.
14. Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings. Bye: 6.
I would like to know who will be Minnesota's quarterback, but if Case Keenum can facilitate Thielen becoming a top-10 wide receiver, then I don't believe we need to worry too much about the quarterback, as the Vikings do have some options.
15. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles. Bye: 4.
Jeffery is in a strong offense and will be able to start 2018 as a veteran of that offense rather than a rookie like last season. He scored seven touchdown in his last seven games.