This is a list of my top 2017 fantasy football busts - players you should avoid unless they fall far in your draft. The Average Draft Position (ADP) is found on FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
I was dead on with some of my busts last year, namely Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Chris Ivory and Doug Martin, all of whom were being chosen in the sixth round or earlier. However, I whiffed big time on two players: Devonta Freeman and Julian Edelman.
Ty Montgomery, RB, Packers. ADP: 3.12.
Ty Montgomery didn't have a good preseason debut. He was stuffed by Brandon Graham on his first run, and then he lost a fumble on his second carry. He was stuffed again on his third and final try. In total, his three carries went for zero yards. Meanwhile, rookie Jamaal Williams looked better, as he was actually able to move the pile on his runs. He managed 14 yards on five carries, looking good in the process. It's quite possible that Montgomery and Williams could end up splitting the workload evenly, making Montgomery a reach at his 3.12 ADP.
Spencer Ware, RB, Chiefs. ADP: 4.05.
Spencer Ware was No. 2 in my Fantasy Football Sleepers list last year, but now he's one of the top busts. I have Ware in the 30s as far as Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings are concerned, but his absurd 4.05 ADP makes him the 20th back off the board. Ware wore down the stretch last year, and the Chiefs selected Kareem Hunt to be their next starting running back, so I don't know what people are smoking when taking him in the fourth frame.
Brandon Marshall, WR, Giants. ADP: 5.07.
Spending a fifth-round pick on a declining, 33-year-old receiver playing in a stagnant offense with a decaying quarterback sounds awful. If you're spending a pick on Brandon Marshall, and it's in a single-digit round, you're doing it wrong.
Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers. ADP: 3.11.
Tony Pauline reported that the 49ers don't view Carlos Hyde as a good fit for their offense. Joe Williams is very talented, and he could start for them early in the season. Besides, Hyde's inability to stay healthy would make him a risky selection in the third/fourth round anyway. Hyde could be traded, which could be either good or bad, depending on where he's dealt.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Seahawks. ADP: 7.02.
No one should even be thinking about selecting Eddie Lacy prior to the ninth round, and even that's too early. Lacy in the seventh frame is mystifying. He's going to be sharing the workload with Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise, and he won't have nearly as talented of an offensive line blocking for him in Seattle. I'm also not even convinced he's going to make the final 53-man roster.
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Redskins. ADP: 3.05.
I don't hate Terrelle Pryor very much. In fact, he could have a good year. I think he comes with risk, however, as he'll be playing in a new offense. He's also just a one-hit wonder, and I have to think that his production could drop now that teams realize they have to pay attention to him. It's also worth noting that Jamison Crowder has been Kirk Cousins' top receiver target throughout OTAs. I'd much rather have Crowder in the sixth round than Pryor in the third.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Eagles. ADP: 5.04.
LeGarrette Blount will be a nice option in touchdown-only leagues this season, but he's sharing touches with too many running backs to warrant an early selection in the fifth round. Blount's ADP should be in Round 7-8 or so in standard leagues. He has struggled in the preseason thus far, so I dislike him even more now.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins. ADP: 8.04.
Kirk Cousins' ADP is in the middle of the eighth round, but he's still being chosen as the ninth quarterback, meaning he's been taken a starter in most leagues. Cousins lost his top two receivers, so I'm not in favor of selecting him so early.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins. ADP: 6.03.
Jarvis Landry at 6.03 in a PPR league sounds reasonable. Not in a standard format, however. Landry doesn't catch many touchdowns, and Ryan Tannehill has too many weapons at his disposal to keep Landry afloat as a fantasy WR2.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Titans. ADP: 1.12.
I don't hate DeMarco Murray this year, but he's going a bit too early for my liking. I get the feeling that he's due to have another injury-prone season, but even if that doesn't happen, Derrick Henry will be around to take some of the workload.
Jay Ajayi, RB, Dolphins. ADP: 2.03.
I've been back and forth on Jay Ajayi being on my busts list. The fact that he went two weeks without being cleared for a concussion is a concern. If he suffers another concussion during the season, he could be out for a while. Plus, Miami's guard situation is quite dubious. Ajayi is too risky for my taste atop the second round.
Andrew Luck, QB, Colts. ADP: 7.06.
Andrew Luck is making his initial appearance in the busts list this week. Luck wouldn't commit to playing in the season opener, and even if he does, he may not be 100 percent. This is not someone I'd like to spend an early seventh-round fantasy pick on at the current moment. I need to see some positive reports about Luck for me to regain my confidence in him.