This is a list of my top 2017 fantasy football busts - players you should avoid unless they fall far in your draft. The Average Draft Position (ADP) is found on FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
I was dead on with some of my busts last year, namely Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Chris Ivory and Doug Martin, all of whom were being chosen in the sixth round or earlier. However, I whiffed big time on two players: Devonta Freeman and Julian Edelman.
Spencer Ware, RB, Chiefs. ADP: 3.07.
Spencer Ware was No. 2 in my Fantasy Football Sleepers list last year, but now he's one of the top busts. I have Ware in the 30s as far as Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings are concerned, but his absurd 3.07 ADP makes him the 15th back off the board. Ware wore down the stretch last year, and the Chiefs selected Kareem Hunt to be their next starting running back, so I don't know what people are smoking when taking him in the third frame.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Seahawks. ADP: 4.05.
No one should even be thinking about selecting Eddie Lacy prior to the eighth round, and even that's too early. Lacy in the fourth frame is mystifying. He's going to be sharing the workload with Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise, and he won't have nearly as talented of an offensive line blocking for him in Seattle.
Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers. ADP: 3.08.
Tony Pauline reported that the 49ers don't view Carlos Hyde as a good fit for their offense. They like Joe Williams a lot, and Williams could start for them early in the season. Besides, Hyde's inability to stay healthy would make him a risky selection in the third round anyway.
Brandon Marshall, WR, Giants. ADP: 5.05.
Spending a fifth-round pick on a declining, 33-year-old receiver playing in a stagnant offense with a decaying quarterback sounds awful. If you're spending a pick on Brandon Marshall, and it's in a single-digit round, you're doing it wrong.
Latavius Murray, RB, Vikings. ADP: 6.09.
Latavius Murray is not a good football player. He averaged only 4.0 yards per carry last season behind a top-three offensive line. He scored 12 touchdowns, but only because the Raiders put him in position to do so. Murray's blocking will be much worse in Minnesota, and the Vikings could give Dalvin Cook the starting job. It doesn't help Murray that he's banged up right now.
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Redskins. ADP: 3.10.
I don't hate Terrelle Pryor very much. In fact, he could have a good year. I think he comes with risk, however, as he'll be playing in a new offense. He's also just a one-hit wonder, and I have to think that his production could drop now that teams realize they have to pay attention to him. It's also worth noting that Jamison Crowder has been Kirk Cousins' top receiver target throughout OTAs. I'd much rather have Crowder in the seventh round than Pryor in the third.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins. ADP: 8.03
Kirk Cousins' ADP is 8.03, but he's still being chosen as the 10th quarterback, meaning he's been taken a starter in most leagues. Cousins lost his top two receivers, so I'm not in favor of selecting him so early.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins. ADP: 4.11.
Jarvis Landry at 4.11 in a PPR league sounds reasonable. Not in a standard format, however. Landry doesn't catch many touchdowns, and Ryan Tannehill has too many weapons at his disposal to keep Landry afloat as a fantasy WR2.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Patriots. ADP: 3.01.
I don't hate Cooks this year, but I think the second round is a bit too rich for him. Cooks will have some big games in 2017, but he'll be inconsistent based on what Bill Belichick's game plans call for on a certain week.
Jay Ajayi, RB, Dolphins. ADP: 2.01.
I'm listing Jay Ajayi here primarily because his center, Mike Pouncey, is injured. Ajayi had two of his three 200-yard games last year when Pouncey was healthy, so there's no sense when that'll be the case.