Here are my Top-50 Dynasty Rookies for this season.
Remember that the odds of getting that diamond in the rough are slim, so a first- or early second-round rookie pick is worth a whole lot more than a whole bunch of fourth- and fifth-round picks. Trade up if you can.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers
There are four players I wouldn't quibble with as the No. 1 pick for rookie dynasty drafts, and amazingly, they are the first four rookies on my list! McCaffrey edges the rest out due to his rushing and receiving ability in an offense that needs both very badly. The Panthers will use him as much as they can, but also keep him from being pounded into dust by running between the tackles. I usually go with a receiver in anything dynasty due to their longevity, but I like McCaffrey too much in PPR leagues, which is pretty much where fantasy leans nowadays.
Corey Davis, WR, Titans
Davis has the upside to be a No. 1 receiver and should compete for that moniker from day one, but I don't believe he's a top-10 overall receiver on spec, which pushes him down a bit for me. But when you factor in a wide receiver's longevity and health compared to running backs, I like Davis ahead of the two other running backs in my top four. He is likely the safest pick of the bunch.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars
Fournette has a ton of upside, but landed in an offense that will need to cater to him. I think the Jaguars will, but I also worry that he won't be able to live up to his potential in any offense with Blake Bortles at the helm. Of course it's not all bad, as Fournette is a beast and can make plays on his own and should be a strong touchdown threat around the end zone.
Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
Mixon has a good mix of abilities and could easily be a three-down back for the Bengals, but I also doubt Gio Bernard is going to disappear. Jeremy Hill, on the other hand, will likely disappear behind Mixon, and we'll see Mixon and Bernard as the new Bengals committee. Bernard is still recovering from ACL surgery and will likely get a slow start to this season, so Mixon could benefit, but as long as Bernard's recovery goes well, he should continue to be a part of the offense.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings
Cook didn't land in the best place for a running back with Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon clogging up playing time, but Cook also has a higher upside than both. If he can learn the system and pass protection, he has a good chance of getting significant work this year and then take over the three-down job in the future.
Samaje Perine, RB, Redskins
You should be able to get Perine later than this, as his ADP is coming around the end of the first round, beginning of the second round, but if you are need of running backs, I would feel fine grabbing him a bit early. He fits Washington's run game perfectly and has more juice than Robert Kelley. Perine may not give you 10 years of solid play, but a nice stretch of 3-4 years is certainly in the cards on a strong offense.
O.J. Howard, TE, Bucs
Howard is a physical specimen who could evolve into a top fantasy tight end. There are some good tight end choices in this year's rookie draft, so don't go overboard on Howard if you need to wait on the position, but I sure would like to see what he can do with Jameis Winston - a known tight end targeter - at quarterback.
John Ross, WR, Bengals
Ross isn't the type of receiver I usually go after in the first round of rookie drafts, but I like his ability with the ball, which is of course helped by his amazing speed. He may have trouble getting knocked off his routes in the NFL, but if he can work on beating press coverage, he could put up big numbers. Even if Ross doesn't, I like his big-play ability, which could lead him into DeSean Jackson territory.
Jamaal Williams, RB, Packers
The Packers can't seem to get any consistency at running back, so they brought in two rookies who both have ability to start in this league. Williams is the more pro-ready though and has the advantage of being a good blocker coming out of college. Ty Montgomery is the RB1 right now, but it sure doesn't seem like the Packers want to give his small frame a big workload. There's no guarantee that Williams carves out a big role this year, but he's my pick to do so in a pretty open backfield.
Evan Engram, TE, Giants
Engram has a similar feel as Marques Colston did when he came out. It's hard to know if the Giants will convert Engram to wide receiver, but either way, you can tell just by the question that Engram is an offensive-minded tight end, and the Giants are very much a pass-oriented team. There is a lot of competition for targets in New York, but Engram is good enough to be a big part of this offense for years to come.
Out of sheer boredom and the upcoming NBA draft has gotten me itching to make a new mock draft. Of course the NFL draft is a whole lot less predictable than the NBA draft, but also provides more success stories than the NBA draft. Again, I used schedules to determine each team's records and if you get upset with me just remember it's June and a whole lot can change by next April.