I've only done one fantasy mock draft thus far, but I just took a peak at FantasyFootballCalculator.com's average draft position (ADP) for the first time this summer. That got me thinking - what would an ideal value team look like? A value team is defined by a group of players whose ADP is lower than X.06 each round. For example, a first-round value would have to be a player whose ADP is 1.07 or lower, but should be higher. A fifth-round value could be someone whose ADP is 5.07 or 6.04 or 8.03, etc., but should be higher.
I've constructed a team like this based on FantasyFootballCalculator.com's ADAP.
There will be many more 2012 Fantasy Football Rankings and features in the late spring and summer, including tons of 2012 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts, Player Rankings, Sleepers and Busts. I'll also have an extensive 2012 NFL Fantasy Football Preseason Stock Report.
Round 1: Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
I'd probably take Chris Johnson fifth overall of standard fantasy drafts, so his 1.08 ADP is just a bit too low. Johnson was chosen in the top three of most fantasy drafts last year, but is going later now because he disappointed. His struggles were fairly predictable, however, because he held out and did not report to the team in shape. His blocking also sucked, but that'll be better because Tennessee signed stud guard Steve Hutchinson.
Round 2: Greg Jennings, WR, Packers
Greg Jennings is my No. 4 receiver in standard leagues, so I believe his ADP is too low at 3.04. I actually had Hakeem Nicks ahead of Jennings, and he fit in this spot because of a 3.02 ADP, but his foot fracture has changed that. Still, even if I can't get Jennings in Round 2, I won't mind Nicks; he doesn't figure to miss any time with his injury.
Round 3: Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants
I normally hate having a running back and a receiver from the same team, but if Ahmad Bradshaw is available to me in Round 3 with Hakeem Nicks on my roster, I'm taking him no matter what. Fortunately, that doesn't matter in this scenario. Bradshaw's ADP is only 3.09 because people assume that David Wilson will steal touches from him. Wilson won't be getting much work unless Bradshaw gets hurt. Tom Coughlin is not going to trust some rookie to carry the ball. Bradshaw will be a very strong fantasy RB2.
Round 4: Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings
Percy Harvin has a 5.01 ADP because average fantasy drafts assume that Adrian Peterson will play most of his games and dominate like he always does. I think that's insane. Peterson tore his freaking ACL in late December. Even his trainer warned the media not to expect Peterson back for Week 1. Harvin will be the focal point of Minnesota's offense as long as Peterson is out.
Round 5: Steve Johnson, WR, Bills
Steve Johnson is a hell of a third receiver. He posted big numbers in the first half of the season when Ryan Fitzpatrick was healthy. His numbers dipped as Fitzpatrick declined, but the Harvard quarterback is 100 percent again. Johnson should have an ADP in the fourth round, so he's a steal at 5.10.
Round 6: Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers
It would have been a tough choice between Tony Romo (ADP 6.06) and Philip Rivers (6.12) had the former been at 6.07. Both are incredible values in the sixth round; I'd happily take either in the fifth, and wouldn't be upset if I had to in the late fourth.
Round 7: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
My running back corps is thin, but almost everyone is going to have that problem this year. Hopefully there will be some good free agents available on the waiver wire in the first couple of weeks. I like Jonathan Stewart as a seventh-round target (ADP 8.07). Ron Rivera will eventually realize that Stewart is the better overall player. Plus, some of Cam Newton's rushing touchdowns are bound to go to his running backs this year, and Stewart is more prominently used on the goal line.
Round 8: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions
I don't know why Calvin Johnson agreed to be on the Madden cover. He's screwed. He'll trip on a McDonald's bag, get struck by lightning or be the victim of an alien abduction. I hope for his sake that those aliens are hot chicks who want to bang non-stop. Ugh, why can't I be on the Madden cover? At any rate, once Megatron goes down with an injury, Matthew Stafford will focus on his other targets; namely Brandon Pettigrew, whose ADP is a low 9.04.
Round 9: Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings
I'm down on Adrian Peterson, so I naturally like Toby Gerhart (ADP 9.08) this season. Gerhart can post RB2 numbers if given the chance. He'll definitely have opportunities this year. If Peterson returns too early, he'll just re-injure himself, much like Jerry Rice did one year when he came back from an ACL prematurely.
Round 10: Santana Moss, WR, Redskins
Santana Moss was injured last year, but should be able to bounce back. Moss reportedly is in fantastic shape, and I see no reason why he won't become a favorite target of Robert Griffin's. He's a steal with an ADP of 11.03.
Round 11: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bills
People forget that Ryan Fitzpatrick (ADP 12.07) was a fantasy stud at the beginning of last season. They remember his second-half collapse, but that was because of a rib injury. I'd love to have Fitzpatrick as my QB2 this year.
Round 12: Jared Cook, TE, Titans
This is the steal of the draft. Jared Cook (ADP 13.07) is a stud. I have no doubt that he'll post TE1-caliber numbers this year. If Calvin Johnson is not abducted by hot alien chicks, and Brandon Pettigrew, as a result, produces mediocre stats, I'll be able to count on Cook as my starting tight end.
Round 13: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Chiefs
I really like Jonathan Baldwin as a late-round sleeper (ADP 13.09). He's been working very hard this offseason, so it's great to see that his effort is matching his unbelievable physical talent. With Dwayne Bowe holding out, Baldwin and Matt Cassel should be able to develop some chemistry, so my hope is that Baldwin will be able to post WR3 numbers this year.
Round 14: Alex Henery, K, Eagles
Alex Henery is going to be a top-five kicker this year despite his 15.03 ADP. While the Eagles have a dynamic offense, they bog down in the red zone. Henery struggled early in 2011, but literally did not miss in the final two months of the season.
Round 15: Alex Green, RB, Packers
Alex Green has no ADP, and I'm not really sure why. All that stands in his way of becoming Green Bay's starting running back is an injury to the always-banged-up James Starks. Take a shot on Green in the final couple of rounds.
Round 16: Vikings Defense
I like to play fantasy defensive matchups, so I'll gladly take the Vikings in the final round (no ADP) because they battle the Jaguars at home in Week 1. Blaine Gabbert closes his eyes before he throws the football, so Minnesota should be able to accumulate tons of sacks and turnovers.