@Mr. Bitter You might be right, I didn't really care for the Ogbah pick either. I can understand criticizing trading the chance to take Wentz even though I would've taken the haul like the Browns did. I don't understand criticizing the Browns for not taking Jack when literally 29 other teams did the same, Jack has top 5 talent, so when an injury is so bad it takes someone like him out of the first round I can understand a team passing on that risk. I'm clearly not as harsh on the Browns draft class as you are, but maybe you'll be proven right in a couple years, who knows.
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Monday, April 4, 2011
Butler (28-9) vs. Connecticut (31-9) Line: Connecticut by 3.5. 9:20 PM ET (Game 601-602)
You have to be nuts to bet this game. Almost every sharp in Vegas has sucked in this NCAA Tournament (per Bill Simmons' podcast). With a gun to my head, I'd take the Huskies moneyline because I don't think Kemba Walker will lose. But who the hell knows anymore?
Virginia-Commonwealth (27-11) vs. Kansas (35-2) Line: Kansas by 11.5. 2:00 PM ET (Game 721-722)
Even when I'm right, I'm wrong. I'm taking Kansas - they're now the favorite to win the whole thing, and as I wrote earlier, the past five national champs are 26-4 against the spread in the tournament. The Jayhawks are 2-1 ATS thus far.
Arizona (30-7) vs. Connecticut (29-9) Line: Connecticut by 2.5. 7:00 PM ET (Game 515-516)
I've suddenly realized why I've sucked at handicapping the NCAA Tournament - because it makes no f***ing sense. How does Kentucky go from nearly losing to Princeton to knocking off Ohio State? Whatever. I'm going one unit from here on out, and I'm taking Kemba Walker tonight. I think we're all overreacting to Arizona's victory over Duke. The Wildcats just played their best half of the entire season. I doubt they can duplicate that.
Kentucky (27-8) vs. Ohio State (34-2) Line: Ohio State by 6. 9:30 PM ET (Game 879-880)
I'm going to continue to ride Ohio State. As I wrote last weekend, national champions are 26-4 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament dating back to 2006, and Ohio State is undefeated against the spread thus far.
College Basketball Pick: Ohio State 82, Kentucky 70 Ohio State -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 Kentucky 62, Ohio State 60
Thursday, March 24, 2011 (1-0, +$100)
Butler (25-9) vs. Wisconsin (25-8) Line: Wisconsin by 4.5. 9:55 PM ET (Game 807-808)
I'm done betting against Butler. They're awesome. They have more experience than Wisconsin, and I can't believe that they'd lose by five or more points to anyone outside of maybe Ohio State.
Michigan (21-13) vs. Duke (31-4) Line: Duke by 12.5. 2:45 PM ET (Game 719-720)
This seems like a high spread, but not after you hear this stat: Since 2006, teams that win the championship are 26-4 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament. With that in mind, I'm taking the two best teams.
College Basketball Pick: Duke 81, Michigan 61 Duke -12.5 (1.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$165 Duke 73, Michigan 71
George Mason (27-6) vs. Ohio State (33-2) Line: Ohio State by 11. 5:15 PM ET (Game 723-724)
Once again, I'm taking the two teams that have the best shot at winning the NCAA Tournament. As for Kansas, I think they're too lazy after watchinig them struggle on Friday.
College Basketball Pick: Ohio State 77, George Mason 59 Ohio State -11 (1.5 Units) -- Correct; +$150 Ohio State 98, George Mason 66
Friday, March 18, 2011 (1-0, +$200)
Hampton (24-8) vs. Duke (30-4) Line: Duke by 23. 3:10 PM ET (Game 829-830)
If I don't get this selection right, I'm done making college basketball picks for the year. I did so well in the regular season, but the conference and NCAA Tournaments have destroyed my bankroll.
College Basketball Pick: Duke 86, Hampton 60 Duke -23 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Duke 87, Hampton 45
Thursday, March 17, 2011 (0-2, -$440)
Northern Colorado (21-10) vs. San Diego State (32-2) Line: San Diego State by 15.5. 4:40 PM ET (Game 731-732)
One afternoon game and one evening game today - I like Northern Colorado to cover the spread. San Diego State had only four conference blowouts, so I don't know why they'd suddenly have a huge victory over a conference champion that can score.
College Basketball Pick: San Diego State 76, Northern Colorado 68 Northern Colorado +15.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 San Diego State 78, Northern Colorado 60
Belmont (30-4) vs. Wisconsin (23-8) Line: Wisconsin by 5. 7:25 PM ET (Game 737-738)
Belmont is better than Wisconsin. That's why I'm taking them. The Badgers are in a free fall; they were blown out at Ohio State and then scored just 33 points against Penn State.
UAB (22-8) vs. Clemson (21-11) Line: Clemson by 4.5. 9:00 PM ET (Game 541-542)
As I wrote in my 2011 NCAA Tournament Picks, I believe that UAB and VCU will make all the talking heads eat their words by winning two games in the Big Dance (including these bogus first-four contests).
College Basketball Pick: UAB 69, Clemson 67 UAB +4.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 Clemson 70, UAB 52
Saturday, March 12, 2011 (0-1, -$220)
Michigan State (19-13) vs. Penn State (18-13) Line: Michigan State by 3. 4:00 PM ET (Game 535-536) - Game at Indianapolis, Ind.
Penn State is currently in the NCAA Tournament according to Joe Lunardi and our own bracketology, but I'm terrified that we're going to embarrass ourselves against Michigan State. It's Izzo Time, and the Nittany Lions are just 4-19 in their previous 23 matchups against Sparty.
College Basketball Pick: Michigan State 59, Penn State 52 Michigan State -3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 Penn State 61, Michigan State 48
Friday, March 11, 2011 (0-2, -$440)
LaSalle (15-17) vs. Temple (24-6) Line: Temple by 9.5. 6:30 PM ET (Game 839-840) - Game at Atlantic City, N.J.
Temple is a capsizing team. The Owls have struggled recently - they barely beat LaSalle about a week ago - because they have so many injuries. It wouldn't surprise me if they lost this game.
South Florida (9-22) vs. Villanova (23-9) Line: Villanova by 9.5. 7:00 PM ET (Game 569-570) - Game at Madison Square Garden, N.Y.
Villanova really sucks. Sure, they've lost to a bunch of great teams recently, but they also barely beat DePaul and Seton Hall during their slump. It wouldn't surprise me if South Florida came away with a victory.
College Basketball Pick: Villanova 73, South Florida 69 South Florida +9.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 South Florida 70, Villanova 69
Monday, March 7, 2011 (0-1, -$220)
South Dakota State (19-11) vs. Oakland (23-9) Line: Oakland by 2.5. 7:00 PM ET (Game 531-532) - Game at Sioux Falls, S.D.
My strategy to bet against the No. 1 seeds in conference tournaments completely bombed on Saturday, but worked flawlessly on Sunday. If only I had the balls to stick with it. Ugh.
Let's keep going with it. This Oakland team is lucky enough to evade Al Davis, but South Dakota State is pretty much at home.
College Basketball Pick: South Dakota State 81, Oakland 77 South Dakota State +2.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 Oakland 110, South Dakota State 90
Saturday, March 5, 2011 (1-4, -$680)
Binghamton (8-22) vs. Vermont (22-7) Line: Vermont by 12. 2:20 PM ET (Game 703-704) - Game at Hartford, Conn.
I have five picks today, all of which have one thing in common - I'm betting against No. 1 seeds in mid- and low-major conference tournaments. The reason's simple: These teams have enjoyed tremendous regular seasons, but one loss here means elimination from NCAA Tournament contention. That's just way too much pressure on a bunch of kids. Hell, professional football and basketball players tend to choke in must-win situations.
In this game, I'm taking Tony Kornheiser's alma mater. Binghamton has been blown out only once since Jan. 23. The Bearcats battled Vermont close on Feb. 13, losing 60-51.
North Florida (15-18) vs. Belmont (29-4) Line: Belmont by 17.5. 6:00 PM ET (Game 711-712) - Game at Macon, Ga.
How can you not take a school named after the great vampire hunter, Simon Belmont? Well, the Bruins have been shaky lately, barely beating Kennesaw State and Mercer. The Ospreys, meanwhile, have knocked off the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds in the Atlantic Sun Tournament.
College Basketball Pick: Belmont 78, North Florida 68 North Florida +17.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 Belmont 87, North Florida 46
Southern Utah (11-18) vs. Oakland (22-9) Line: Oakland by 13. 7:00 PM ET (Game 713-714) - Game at Sioux Falls, S.D.
I'm sure Oakland has a bunch of "great playas" with Al Davis in town, but I'm taking Southern Utah to cover. The Thunderbirds were 5-3 in the month of February, and their losses were by 3, 2 and 14.
Elon (14-16) vs. College of Charleston (22-9) Line: College of Charleston by 9. 9:25 PM ET (Game 675-676) - Game at Chattanooga, Tenn.
This is a conspicuously short line, but Elon's the hotter team. The Phoenix have won four of five, while College of Charleston has dropped two in a row going into the SoCon Tournament.
College Basketball Pick: College of Charleston 77, Elon 75 Elon +9 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 College of Charleston 78, Elon 60
Friday, March 4, 2011 (1-0, +$200)
Southern Illinois (13-18) at Missouri State (23-7) Line: Missouri State by 11. 1:00 PM ET (Game 843-844)
Missouri State put together a great season. However, it could all end this afternoon if they lose to a crappy 13-18 squad. That's a lot of pressure to put on a bunch of kids. Also, the Bears have only one double-digit victory in the past two months.
This game's happening in 20 minutes, FYI. I apologize; I didn't realize that there were early games today.
College Basketball Pick: Missouri State 68, Southern Illinois 61 Southern Illinois +11 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Missouri State 58, Southern Illinois 56
Thursday, March 3, 2011 (1-0, +$200)
Oregon State (10-17) at Arizona (23-6) Line: Arizona by 14.5. 8:30 PM ET (Game 515-516)
Arizona is not playing good basketball right now. The Wildcats have dropped two in a row, and have only beaten one opponent by double digits since Jan. 27. Oregon State, meanwhile, has kept its games close over the past month.
I also gave some consideration to St. John's -2. But that line just looks like a trap. The Johnnies should be ranked in the top 10 and Seton Hall sucks, so why is the line only -2? Makes no sense to me.
College Basketball Pick: Arizona 79, Oregon State 70 Oregon State +14.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Arizona 70, Oregon State 59
Wednesday, March 2, 2011 (1-0, +$200)
Eastern Washington (8-19) at Weber State (17-10) Line: Weber State by 13. 8:00 PM ET (Game 803-804)
The last time Eastern Washington lost by more than 12 points? Jan. 13. Weber State has bigger fish to fry with the Big Sky Tournament coming up.
College Basketball Pick: Weber State 73, Eastern Washington 65 Eastern Washington +13 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Eastern Washington 75, Weber State 59
Tuesday, March 1, 2011 (1-0, +$200)
Youngstown State (9-20) at Valparaiso (21-10) Line: Valparaiso by 13.5. 8:00 PM ET (Game 547-548)
Valparaiso is 21-10, but they're just 2-3 in their previous five games. Youngstown State, meanwhile, has not lost by more than 12 points since Jan. 29.
College Basketball Pick: Valparaiso 75, Youngstown State 67 Youngstown State +13.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Valparaiso 80, Youngstown State 71
Sunday, February 27, 2011 (0-1, -$220)
Providence (14-14) at Marquette (17-11) Line: Marquette by 10. 4:00 PM ET (Game 833-834)
Marquette, losers of five of its previous nine games, has been inconsistent all year. I don't think they deserve to be favored by 10 over a decent Providence team. The Friars should be able to score enough to cover.
St. John's (18-9) at Villanova (21-7) Line: Villanova by 6.5. 2:00 PM ET (Game 567-568)
Villanova has been playing like crap lately. They're 2-3 in their previous five, with their two wins coming against DePaul (by 2) and Seton Hall (by 3). St. John's is the better team right now.
College Basketball Pick: Villanova 70, St. John's 69 St. John's +6.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 St. John's 81, Villanova 68
Mississippi State (14-13) at Tennessee (17-11) Line: Tennessee by 11. 6:00 PM ET (Game 601-602)
Tennessee is a lazy team that doesn't take lesser opponents seriously. And they're not that good. The Vols have lost four of six, while Mississippi State hasn't suffered a double-digit loss since Feb. 2.
College Basketball Pick: Tennessee 71, Mississippi State 68 Mississippi State +11 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Mississippi State 70, Tennessee 69
Wyoming (10-17) at UNLV (21-7) Line: UNLV by 17.5. 10:00 PM ET (Game 673-674)
This is a pretty high spread for UNLV. The Rebs don't really blow teams out, while Wyoming has been playing well of late.
DePaul (7-19) at St. John's (17-9) Line: St. John's by 13.5. 7:00 PM ET (Game 731-732)
DePaul has been playing everyone tough. Check out their previous five results: loss by 2 vs. Villanova; win by 3 at Providence; loss by 11 at West Virginia; loss by 3 vs. Cincinnnati; loss by 4 at Louisville. Meanwhile, St. John's has battled so many tough opponents recently; the last cupcake team they've played was Rutgers (at home on Feb. 2), and they won that game by only two points. This could be a similar letdown.
College Basketball Pick: St. John's 71, DePaul 64 DePaul +13.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 St. John's 76, DePaul 51
Tuesday, February 22, 2011 (0-1, -$220)
Illinois (17-10) at Ohio State (26-2) Line: Ohio State by 10.5. 7:00 PM ET (Game 523-524)
Ohio State isn't playing good basketball right now, having lost two of three. Illinois, meanwhile, has just one loss of five or more points in conference play. They really need this game more than the Buckeyes; a victory would pretty much clinch a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
College Basketball Pick: Ohio State 67, Illinois 61 Illinois +10.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 Ohio State 89, Illinois 70
Monday, February 21, 2011 (0-1, -$220)
Maryland Eastern Shore (6-20) at Morgan State (13-10) Line: Morgan State by 13. 9:00 PM ET (Game 721-722)
Maryland Eastern Shore has an awful record, but it plays its opponents tough; the Hawks have been blown out only once in the past month. Meanwhile, Morgan State has only one blowout victory in the same span.
College Basketball Pick: Morgan State 73, Maryland Eastern Shore 68 Maryland Eastern Shore +13 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 Morgan State 71, Maryland Eastern Shore 54
Sunday, February 20, 2011 (1-0, +$200)
Penn State (14-11) at Wisconsin (19-6) Line: Wisconsin by 12. 6:00 PM ET (Game 865-866)
After a brief slump, Penn State's playing well again. I like them to cover against Wisconsin. The Badgers don't really blow teams out; they just don't have the explosive offense to do that.
College Basketball Pick: Wisconsin 69, Penn State 62 Penn State +12 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Wisconsin 76, Penn State 66
Saturday, February 19, 2011 (1-1, +$80)
Texas Tech (11-15) at Baylor (17-8) Line: Baylor by 12. 8:00 PM ET (Game 593-594)
Texas Tech has only been blown out twice in the past month - against top-three teams Kansas and Texas. I wouldn't put Baylor in that category. The Bears have just one victory of more than four points since Jan. 22 - and that was against Wayland Baptist.
San Francisco (14-12) at Gonzaga (18-9) Line: Gonzaga by 14.5. 8:00 PM ET (Game 595-596)
I'm going against overrated Gonzaga again. San Francisco is 7-2 in its previous nine games, so this line should be in single digits.
College Basketball Pick: Gonzaga 76, San Francisco 68 San Francisco +14.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 Gonzaga 70, San Francisco 53
Friday, February 18, 2011 (1-0, +$200)
Kennesaw State (8-18) at Jacksonville (17-8) Line: Jacksonville by 16. 7:00 PM ET (Game 823-824)
I have no idea where Kennesaw State is, but I'm taking them to cover this inflated point spread. Kennesaw State has won three of four, and they're a team that doesn't get blown out frequently. Meanwhile, Jacksonville doesn't have a win of more than 13 points since Jan. 22.
College Basketball Pick: Jacksonville 69, Kennesaw State 63 Kennesaw State +16 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Jacksonville 75, Kennesaw State 60
Thursday, February 17, 2011 (1-0, +$200)
Santa Clara (16-11) at Gonzaga (17-9) Line: Gonzaga by 13.5. 9:00 PM ET (Game 531-532)
Not sure what happened yesterday. Losing the spread by 1.5 and three points sucks, what can I say?
Hopefully we'll have better luck today. I'm taking this Santa Clara team that has only one loss of more than seven points during conference play. Gonzaga seems to be getting too many points because they're a public team.
College Basketball Pick: Gonzaga 76, Santa Clara 73 Santa Clara +13.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Gonzaga 85, Santa Clara 76
Wednesday, February 16, 2011 (0-2, -$550)
Youngstown State (8-17) at Detroit (14-14) Line: Detroit by 10.5. 7:00 PM ET (Game 737-738)
I went with Youngstown State last week because they usually keep games close. They should be able to cover against a Detroit team that has dropped two in a row and is 4-7 in its previous 11 games.
College Basketball Pick: Detroit 73, Youngstown State 68 Youngstown State +10.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 Detroit 91, Youngstown State 79
CS-Fullerton (9-16) at UC-Santa Barbara (13-10) Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 12. 7:00 PM ET (Game 737-738)
Both teams are 3-4 in their previous seven games, yet UC-Santa Barbara is a 12-point favorite. How does that make any sense? UC-Santa Barbara doesn't blow anyone out, while CS-Fullerton usually keeps its games close; the four aforementioned losses were by 1, 2, 2 and 15.
College Basketball Pick: UC-Santa Barbara 74, CS-Fullerton 68 CS-Fullerton +12 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330 UC-Santa Barbara 86, CS-Fullerton 71
Tuesday, February 15, 2011 (1-0, +$200)
Mississippi State (13-11) at Kentucky (17-7) Line: Kentucky by 17.5. 7:00 PM ET (Game 529-530)
Kentucky should not be favored by this much. Not only have they not blown out anyone in a month; they're just 3-4 in their previous seven games. Mississippi State, meanwhile, has won three of five.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky 77, Mississippi State 68 Mississippi State +17.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Kentucky 85, Mississippi State 79
Sunday, February 13, 2011 (0-1, -$220)
Providence (14-10) at Connecticut (18-5) Line: Connecticut by 10. 7:00 PM ET (Game 839-840)
Connecticut is really struggling right now, having lost three of four. Providence is playing much better; the Friars have won three of five. They seldom get blown out.
Youngstown State (8-16) at Cleveland State (21-5) Line: Cleveland State by 17. 2:00 PM ET (Game 555-556)
Cleveland State has dropped two in a row and has beaten only one team by more than 14 points since New Years Day. Youngstown State, meanwhile, has battled everyone tough. They've only been blown out once in the past month.
College Basketball Pick: Cleveland State 71, Youngstown State 66 Youngstown State +17 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300 Cleveland State 86, Youngstown State 76
Friday, February 11, 2011 (1-1, +$80)
Yale (11-9) at Harvard (16-4) Line: Harvard by 11.5. 7:00 PM ET (Game 821-822)
Yale is a solid team. They've won two in a row, and six of their previous eight. The last time they lost a game by more than eight points was on Dec. 28 at Stanford. Harvard, meanwhile, has only two victories of more than 11 points since New Years Eve. Those wins came against Cornell and Dartmouth, the two worst teams in the Ivy League.
Penn (9-10) at Cornell (5-15) Line: Cornell by 2.5. 7:00 PM ET (Game 825-826)
I'm standing by my position that Cornell really sucks and is very overvalued.
College Basketball Pick: Penn 71, Cornell 67 Penn +2.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 Cornell 82, Penn 71 (OT)
Thursday, February 10, 2011 (1-1, -$130)
Georgia Southern (4-21) at Furman (17-7) Line: Furman by 20.5. 7:00 PM ET (Game 563-564)
Furman is favored by 20.5 - which is way too many points for a team coming off a loss that doesn't blow its opponents out. Georgia Southern, meanwhile, has only lost one game by 20-plus points since the beginning of January, so they've been playing tough despite their ugly record.
Sacramento State (6-16) at Montana (16-7) Line: Montana by 17. 7:00 PM ET (Game 577-578)
Sacramento State has a much worse record than Montana, but they're playing better basketball right now. They've won three of four, while the Grizz have dropped two in a row.
College Basketball Pick: Montana 68, Sacramento State 63 Sacramento State +17 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330 Montana 64, Sacramento 44
Wednesday, February 9, 2011 (1-0, +$200)
Bradley (8-16) at Missouri State (18-6) Line: Missouri State by 15.5. 8:00 PM ET (Game 765-766)
I have to go on a rant for a second because we were seriously cheated in the Indiana-Purdue game last night. Indiana stayed within 11 points the entire game. Thanks to a pair of free throws in the final minute, Purdue finally increased its lead to 12. Indiana missed the ensuing layup, and there were 20 seconds remaining.
Now, down 12 with 20 seconds left, the Hoosiers had no chance, right? Not according to head coach Tom Crean. Crean yelled at his players, imploring them to foul. The refs let a couple of fouls go, but finally blew the whistle with 13 seconds left. Yeah, you're going to overcome a 12-point deficit in 13 seconds, you f***ing moron.
As this happened, I yelled:
"No!!!!!!!!!! What the f*** are you fouling for!!!!! F*** you, Tom Crean, you f***ing nerd!!!!!"
Of course, Purdue drained two free throws and Indiana missed a half-a**ed attempt at a three-pointer, and that was that. The worst push in college basketball history.
At any rate, Missouri State isn't playing very good basketball right now; they've dropped two of three and haven't even covered the spread since Jan. 16. Bradley, meanwhile, has won two in a row.
College Basketball Pick: Missouri State 71, Bradley 64 Bradley +15.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Missouri State 77, Bradley 69
Tuesday, February 8, 2011 (0-1-1, -$220)
Indiana (12-12) at Purdue (18-5) Line: Purdue by 14. 7:00 PM ET (Game 519-520)
Purdue doesn't blow teams out; the last time the Boilermakers have beaten a team by this margin was Iowa on Jan. 9. Indiana, meanwhile, is playing well right now. If the Hoosiers can keep within double digits of Wisconsin and Michigan State, they should be able to cover this large spread.
Utah (10-13) at San Diego State (23-1) Line: San Diego State by 17.5. 10:30 PM ET (Game 537-538)
I had Utah about a week ago, and that worked out well. They should be able to cover. Like Purdue, San Diego State doesn't blow teams out; the Aztecs have just one win of more than 13 points since New Years Eve.
College Basketball Pick: San Diego State 73, Utah 67 Utah +17.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 San Diego State 85, Utah 53
Monday, February 7, 2011 (1-0, +$300)
Illinois-Chicago (6-18) at Butler (15-9) Line: Butler by 16.5. 7:00 PM ET (Game 721-722)
Butler is highly overrated. They're just 1-6 against the spread as double-digit favorites this year, and they've dropped four of their previous six overall. Illinois-Chicago, meanwhile, has only lost one game by more than 14 points since New Years Day.
Providence (14-9) at Georgetown (17-5) Line: Georgetown by 11.5. 12:00 PM ET (Game 525-526)
Georgetown is known as the laziest team in college basketball. They seldom try hard when they don't need to, and they have just one win of more than 11 points since Dec. 23. Providence has won three of four.
Cornell (4-15) at Brown (8-11) Line: Brown by 1. 6:00 PM ET (Game 619-620)
Just because Cornell covered one game doesn't mean that I'm going to stop betting against them. They stink.
College Basketball Pick: Brown 74, Cornell 61 Brown -1 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330 Cornell 91, Brown 70
Friday, February 4, 2011 (0-1, -$330)
Cornell (4-14) at Yale (9-9) Line: Yale by 4.5. 7:00 PM ET
I've been betting against this Cornell team all year because the public doesn't understand how bad they are. Everyone remembers last year's trip to the Sweet 16, but this team really sucks this season.
Michigan (13-9) at Ohio State (23-0) Line: Ohio State by 16.5. 7:00 PM ET
This is a big rivalry, so it should be a close game. Ohio State is undefeated, but they've barely beaten some teams lately, which leads me to believe that this spread is inflated. Michigan, meanwhile, has lost only one contest by more than 16 points since Dec. 28.
College Basketball Pick: Ohio State 78, Michigan 67 Michigan +16.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Ohio State 62, Michigan 53
Pepperdine (9-15) at Saint Mary's (18-4) Line: Saint Mary's by 21. 7:00 PM ET
Saint Mary's has been favored by 20-plus points three times this season, and is 0-3 ATS in those games. Saint Mary's has also dropped two of three, so I like Pepperdine to cover. Pepperdine has won two of three.
College Basketball Pick: Saint Mary's 82, Pepperdine 70 Pepperdine +21 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Saint Mary's 79, Pepperdine 71
Wednesday, February 2, 2011 (2-0, +$500)
Marquette (14-8) at Villanova (17-4) Line: Villanova by 6. 7:00 PM ET
Villanova is playing like crap like now; it looks like they're beginning their annual late-season swoon. Marquette always plays the Wildcats tough; the Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS against Villanova in their previous 10 matchups.
Utah (10-11) at UNLV (16-5) Line: UNLV by 15.5. 10:30 PM ET
This spread is just out of control. UNLV has beaten only one team (crappy TCU) by more than 12 points since Dec. 30. Utah, meanwhile, has only been blown out once since early December (against BYU). The Utes even played undefeated San Diego State tough, losing by just nine points.
Penn State (12-8) at Illinois (14-7) Line: Illinois by 8. 9:00 PM ET
Penn State is playing much better than Illinois right now. The Nittany Lions are 4-2 in their previous six games, with the two losses coming in the final few seconds. The Illini, meanwhile, have dropped four of five.
College Basketball Pick: Illinois 65, Penn State 62 Penn State +8 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 Illinois 68, Penn State 51
Monday, January 31, 2011 (0-1, -$330)
Canisius (10-10) at Fairfield (16-4) Line: Fairfield by 10.
Canisius is 6-3 in its previous nine games, and none of those three losses have been by more than eight points. As for Fairfield, their record is impressive, but they haven't won by more than eight points themselves since early January.
Indiana (11-10) at Michigan State (12-8) Line: Michigan State by 11.
People can't accept the fact that Michigan State sucks. The Spartans have lost three in a row, and the last team they beat by double figures was Prairie View A&M on Dec. 18. Indiana, meanwhile, is playing with a ton of confidence right now.
College Basketball Pick: Michigan State 74, Indiana 71 Indiana +11 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300 Michigan State 84, Indiana 83
Saturday, January 29, 2011 (3-0, +$700)
Northern Illinois (7-11) at Buffalo (11-6) Line: Buffalo by 13.5.
This spread is way too high. Buffalo has just one win of more than 13 points since Dec. 11. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois has won three of five, and the team hasn't lost to anyone by more than nine points since they visited ranked Missouri on Dec. 27.
Columbia (11-5) at Harvard (13-3) Line: Harvard by 11.
Both Columbia and Harvard are pretty good Ivy League teams, so I don't get why this spread is so high.
College Basketball Pick: Harvard 74, Columbia 70 Columbia +11 (2 Units) -- Push; $0 Harvard 77, Columbia 66
Thursday, January 27, 2011 (1-0, +$200)
Tennessee State (10-9) at Morehead State (13-8) Line: Morehead State by 10.5.
Eastern Michigan sucked yesterday, but Rutgers was the right side. They led in the second half, but lost the spread because their idiot coach asked his players to start fouling with three minutes left. Cincinnati naturally hit every single free throw down the stretch. Ugh.
I'm always a fan of Morehead, but I'm taking Tennessee State today. The Tigers have won four in a row, while the Eagles haven't scored more than 50 points in two weeks.
College Basketball Pick: Morehead State 58, Tennessee State 56 Tennessee State +10.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Moreheard State 72, Tennessee State 65
Wednesday, January 26, 2011 (0-2, -$550)
Eastern Michigan (5-13) at Ohio (8-10) Line: Ohio by 10.
Does Ohio deserve to be favored by 10? The Bobcats are 1-5 in their previous six games and 2-7 in their past nine. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, is coming off a win. They have only one loss of more than nine points in the past month and a half.
Rutgers (12-7) at Cincinnati (17-3) Line: Cincinnati by 10.5.
This line is really inflated because of Cincinnati's bogus record. The Bearcats have predictably struggled in Big East play, losing three of their previous five. Rutgers, meanwhile, is 8-5 in its past 13 games.
UNC-Wilmington (10-9) at Old Dominion (14-5) Line: Old Dominion by 14.5.
This spread is out of control. UNC-Wilmington 5-3 in its previous eight games, while Old Dominion is coming off a loss. And check out Old Dominion's margins of victory since Dec. 9: 3, 9, 4, 15, 4, 11, 6.
College Basketball Pick: Old Dominion 65, UNC-Wilmington 63 UNC-Wilmington +14.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330 Old Dominion 58, UNC-Wilmington 43
Sunday, January 23, 2011 (1-0, +$300)
South Florida (7-13) at West Virginia (12-5) Line: West Virginia by 13.
I completely disagree with this spread. South Florida hasn't lost by more than 12 points all year. Meanwhile, West Virginia has just one blowout since Dec. 7. Here are their margins of victory in that span: 4, 30, 6, 2, 11, 3.
College Basketball Pick: West Virginia 75, South Florida 69 South Florida +13 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300 West Virginia 56, South Florida 46
Saturday, January 22, 2011 (2-1, +$280)
Tennessee (12-6) at Connecticut (15-2) Line: Connecticut by 6.5.
I know this Tennessee team. They play hard when they want (i.e. when they're underdogs). They beat Pitt, yet they lose to teams like College of Charleston and Oakland. They're 3-0 against the spread as underdogs. They'll get up for Kemba Walker.
Columbia (10-5) at Cornell (4-11) Line: Cornell by 4.5.
I'm going to keep betting against Cornell. They're overvalued because of last year's NCAA Tournament run.
College Basketball Pick: Columbia 75, Cornell 66 Columbia +4.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300 Columbia 70, Cornell 66
Indiana State (12-7) at Wichita State (15-4) Line: Wichita State by 11.
This line is too high. Wichita State is coming off a loss, while Indiana State has won six in a row. Larry Bird's old school should cover this number.
College Basketball Pick: Wichita State 73, Indiana State 67 Indiana State +11 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Wichita State 93, Indiana State 83
Friday, January 21, 2011 (1-0, +$200)
Wisconsin-Green Bay (10-9) at Butler (13-6) Line: Butler by 14.5.
Butler's reputation has inflated this spread; I don't think the Bulldogs are two touchdowns better than Wisconsin-Green Bay. Butler is coming off a loss, and Green Bay doesn't get blown out often. They even stayed within 14 against Wisconsin earlier in the year.
College Basketball Pick: Butler 74, Wisconsin-Green Bay 67 Wisconsin-Green Bay +14.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Butler 81, Wisconsin-Green Bay 75
Thursday, January 20, 2011 (1-1, -$130)
West Carolina (8-10) at College of Charleston (12-6) Line: College of Charleston by 10.5.
This spread is way too high. West Carolina has won four in a row, while College of Charleston is coming off a loss to Tennessee-Chattanooga. In fact, Charleston has just one victory of more than four points since Dec. 31.
College Basketball Pick: College of Charleston 75, West Carolina 70 West Carolina +10.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330 College of Charleston 93, West Carolina 64
Tennessee Tech (8-8) at Austin Peay (12-7) Line: Austin Peay by 13.5.
Another high line. Austin Peay is coming off a loss to 8-9 Tennessee State, as well as two other close wins. They have just one win of more than 10 points against a Division I opponent since Dec. 18. Tennessee Tech, meanwhile, is 4-2 in its previous six games, with the losses coming by 12 and 7 points.
East Carolina (9-8) at Central Florida (14-2) Line: Central Florida by 12.5.
Central Florida's record is a farce. Check out their previous four games: Loss at Southern Miss by 17; loss at Houston by 5; Won vs. Marshall by 7; Won vs. Princeton by 6. Does this sound like a team that deserves to be a 12.5-point favorite? East Carolina, meanwhile, hasn't lost a game by more than 12 points since Dec. 7.
College Basketball Pick: Central Florida 75, East Carolina 69 East Carolina +12.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300 East Carolina 74, Central Florida 62
George Washington (10-7) at Richmond (13-5) Line: Richmond by 14.
Another spread that's way too high. George Washington has won five of six going into this game, with the one loss by five points.
College Basketball Pick: Richmond 73, George Washington 67 George Washington +14 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Richmond 68, George Washington 58
Tuesday, January 18, 2011 (0-1, -$220)
Clemson (13-4) at North Carolina (12-5) Line: North Carolina by 5.5.
It's amazing how North Carolina continues to be overrated. They don't cover any of their games because the oddsmakers keep setting the line too high, perhaps thinking that bettors expect them to bounce back. Well, it doesn't appear as though they will. Clemson's the better and hotter team.
College Basketball Pick: North Carolina 72, Clemson 70 Clemson +5.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 North Carolina 75, Clemson 65
Monday, January 17, 2011 (0-1, -$220)
Kansas State (13-5) at Missouri (15-3) Line: Missouri by 5.
Remember when Kansas State was a top-five team coming into the season? Well, they've lost some games and have become undervalued. Missouri's record is inflated, and I believe Kansas State is the better team.
College Basketball Pick: Kansas State 70, Missouri 64 Kansas State +5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220 Missouri 75, Kansas State 59
Sunday, January 16, 2011 (0-1, -$330)
Eastern Michigan (4-11) at Western Michigan (8-7) Line: Western Michigan by 10.5.
This is a strange line; Eastern Michigan hasn't lost by double digits since Dec. 5, so I think they'll cover.
College Basketball Pick: Western Michigan 71, Eastern Michigan 65 Eastern Michigan +10.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330 Western Michigan 65, Eastern Michigan 48
Saturday, January 15, 2011 (3-1, +$370)
UCLA (10-6) at Oregon (8-9) Line: UCLA by 4.
Two reasons why I like Oregon: First, UCLA is overrated this year. And second, I don't see how any team can win on Oregon's new court. It's like Boise State's blue turf.