Last Week (March 3-9, 2008):
8-3-1, +$1,730 2007-2008 Season (as of March 9):
71-64-5 (52.6%), +$1,420
Thursday, Feb. 28, 2008 (1-0, +$300)
UCLA (24-3) at Arizona State (17-9)
Line: UCLA by 6.5.
I've made it known that I think UCLA is one of the top two teams in college basketball, and I'm confident that they can go on the road in a tough environment and win.
UCLA 75, Arizona State 67
UCLA -6.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2008 (0-1, -$330)
Oklahoma (18-9) at Nebraska (16-9)
Line: Nebraska by 2.5.
I have to think the Huskers will be flat after their huge upset over Texas A&M. I'm not really confident in Nebraska as a favorite anyway.
Oklahoma 71, Nebraska 68
Oklahoma +2.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Tuesday, Feb. 26, 2008 (0-2, -$550)
BYU (21-6) at New Mexico (22-6)
Line: New Mexico by 4.5.
I've been asked to stop taking unranked home favorites over ranked visitors. It seems like it doesn't work, but it does; I'm still up for the year. What I need to do is be more selective about it. I knew going with Kansas State over Texas was a bad idea because the Longhorns are, in my opinion, one of three teams with a legitimate shot at winning the national title (UCLA, North Carolina). Meanwhile, this matchup is what I'm looking for.
New Mexico 75, BYU 68
New Mexico -4.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Northwestern (7-18) at Michigan (9-18)
Line: Michigan by 8.5.
Northwestern has no conference wins (no surprise there), but they came extremely close to notching their first one against Indiana. The Wildcats played extremely hard but lost in the final few seconds. I can't see them mustering enough energy to compete with a more athletic Wolverines squad tonight. Michigan has won four of five.
Michigan 67, Northwestern 53
Michigan -8.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Monday, Feb. 25, 2008 (0-1, -$220)
Texas (23-4) at Kansas State (18-8)
Line: Kansas State by 3.
I love Texas this year, so it pains me to fade them as a system play. Kansas State is an unranked home favorite.
Kansas State 80, Texas 74
Kansas State -3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Sunday, Feb. 24, 2008 (0-0-1, -$10)
California (15-9) at Stanford (21-4)
Line: Stanford by 10.
Using a small play on California, as the visitor often covers in this rivalry. Ten seems like way too many points. Also, note that if Ohio State is favored over Wisconsin tomorrow, I will take them.
Stanford 70, California 67
California +10 (1 Unit) -- Push; -$10
Saturday, Feb. 23, 2008 (3-0-1, +$980)
Connecticut (21-5) at Villanova (16-9)
Line: Villanova by 1.5.
We haven't had one of these in a while. An unranked host favored over a ranked visitor. This worked really well in January and early February, but has failed recently. Here's to hoping the system rebounds.
Villanova 68, Connecticut 63
Villanova -1.5 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
Boston University (11-15) at Saint Peter's (6-20)
Line: Boston University by 2.
Saint Peter's just battled close to Niagara as a huge underdog. I think Boston University will have more energy in this contest.
Boston University 65, Saint Peter's 58
Boston University -2 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Kansas State (18-7) at Baylor (17-8)
Line: Baylor by 1.5.
Another unranked host. I'm begging this system to work here. I'm desperate.
Baylor 81, Kansas State 74
Baylor -1.5 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
Air Force (13-12) at Colorado State (6-19)
Line: Air Force by 2.
This reminds me of the Boston University-Saint Peter's contest. Colorado State will be flat in the wake of coming close to knocking off double digit-favorite TCU.
Air Force 64, Colorado State 52
Air Force -2 (2 Units) -- Push; -$20
Thursday, Feb. 21, 2008 (1-1, -$20)
Dayton (17-7) at LaSalle (12-13)
Line: Dayton by 1.5.
LaSalle is coming off a huge upset victory over St. Joe's. I don't think they'll be ready to take on Dayton tonight.
Dayton 69, LaSalle 60
Dayton -1.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
UNC-Greensboro (14-11) at West Carolina (8-17)
Line: UNC-Greensboro by 5.
West Carolina is in the same boat as LaSalle - they just played the game of their lives against a conference rival that they can never seem to beat. Greensboro should be able to take care of business tonight.
UNC-Greensboro 71, West Carolina 61
UNC-Greensboro -5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Wednesday, Feb. 20, 2008 (2-2, -$270)
Georgia State (7-18) at UNC-Wilmington (17-10)
Line: UNC-Wilmington by 10.
This line is super shady. A hot 17-10 squad favored by just 10 over a crappy 7-18 team? This line should be closer to 20. Perhaps Vegas knows UNC-Wilmington will be flat off its huge upset over George Mason.
UNC-Wilmington 67, Georgia State 64
Georgia State +10 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Charlotte (14-10) at Richmond (13-10)
Line: Charlotte by 1.
Another team that figures to be flat and unfocused is Richmond, coming off a huge upset victory over Duquesne.
Charlotte 70, Richmond 63
Charlotte -1 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Wisconsin-Milwaukee (13-11) at Cleveland State (17-11)
Line: Cleveland State by 6.
Cleveland State just played the game of its life, nearly upsetting No. 8 Butler as a 12.5-point underdog. No way they're focused for Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 68, Cleveland State 67
Wisconsin-Milwaukee +6 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
Auburn (13-10) at Tennessee (23-2)
Line: Tennessee by 16.
Tennessee has Memphis next, so this has to be a look-ahead situation, right? No! Everyone is calling it that. The Vols will be focused. Look-ahead games happen when no one expects them to. This is too obvious.
Tennessee 84, Auburn 61
Tennessee -16 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Sunday, Feb. 17, 2008 (1-0, +$200)
Western Michigan (14-10) at Northern Illinois (6-17)
Line: Northern Illinois by 2.5.
No way Northern Illinois is ready to play a basketball game in the wake of what happened on Valentines Day. They're coming off an emotional game to boot.
Western Michigan 73, Northern Illinois 50
Western Michigan +2.5 (5 Units) -- Game postponed
UCLA (21-3) at USC (15-8)
Line: UCLA by 6.5.
USC beat UCLA the first time around. I don't think that's happening again. The Bruins were caught off-guard. They'll get revenge here.
UCLA 75, USC 65
UCLA -6.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Saturday, Feb. 16, 2008 (2-3, -$600)
Kentucky (12-10) at LSU (9-14)
Line: Kentucky by 2.
I know it's hard to win on the road in the SEC, but I can't see LSU having any kind of energy after beating Florida as a 14-point underdog two nights ago.
Kentucky 70, LSU 55
Kentucky -2 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Drexel (10-16) at Delaware (11-13)
Line: Delaware by 4.5.
Drexel is another team that figures to be flat on Saturday afternoon. The Dragons just battled CAA powerhouse Old Dominion down to the wire. I doubt they'll be focused for Delaware - there are just way too many hot girls at that school. The Drexel players, used to the nerds in their engineering classes (not that there's anything wrong with that), will be in awe by all the hot females.
Delaware 62, Drexel 54
Delaware -4.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Stanford (20-4) at Arizona (16-8)
Line: Arizona by 2.
Another one of these unranked home favorites over ranked visitors that I like so much.
Arizona 68, Stanford 60
Arizona -2 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
Louisiana Tech (4-19) at San Jose State (10-13)
Line: San Jose State by 11.
I don't think San Jose State should be 9.5-point favorites over anyone, especially when they're coming off a hard-fought battle against Utah State as a huge underdog.
San Jose State 65, Louisiana Tech 62
Louisiana Tech +11 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Texas (20-4) at Baylor (17-6)
Line: Baylor by 1.5.
I can't remember the last time Baylor was favored over Texas in any major sport. How can the Bears not cover this (another unranked home favorite)?
Baylor 81, Texas 76
Baylor -1.5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
Thursday, Feb. 14, 2008 (0-2, -$550)
Eastern Kentucky (13-10) at Jacksonville State (4-20)
Line: Eastern Kentucky by 5.5.
Wow... LSU... Anyway, Jacksonville State is coming off a close game against Tennessee Tech, so I imagine they aren't going to be too focused tonight.
Eastern Kentucky 72, Jacksonville State 58
Eastern Kentucky -5.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Weber State (12-10) at Eastern Washington (9-17)
Line: Eastern Washington by 2.
Another team that figures to be flat is Eastern Washington, a squad that just battled 15-9 Northern Arizona down to the wire.
Weber State 65, Eastern Washington 57
Weber State +2 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Wednesday, Feb. 13, 2008 (0-1-1, -$260)
Drake (22-1) at Southern Illinois (12-12)
Line: Southern Illinois by 3.
I'm really getting sick of betting against Drake. They've burnt me twice already. But I'm just playing the system here. Unranked host favored over a ranked visitor.
Southern Illinois 73, Drake 63
Southern Illinois -3 (4 Units) -- Push; -$40
LSU (8-14) at Florida (19-5)
Line: Florida by 13.5.
LSU just somehow came within a few points of knocking off Tennessee, one of the top teams in the nation. They won't have any energy left for Florida.
Florida 85, LSU 66
Florida -13.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2008 (1-0, +$200)
Kent State (19-5) at Central Michigan (10-12)
Line: Kent State by 3.
Central Michigan is coming off a 2-point loss as a huge favorite at Miami of Ohio. I can't see them having much energy against Kent State tonight.
Kent State 70, Central Michigan 60
Kent State -3 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Monday, Feb. 11, 2008 (1-0, +$200)
The Citadel (5-17) at Elon (8-15)
Line: Elon by 11.5.
You may find it odd that an 8-15 team is an 11.5-point favorite over a squad that has covered six in a row. I think the books know The Citadel will be flat after nearly knocking off Appalachian State as a 20-point underdog. I'm going with The Elon over The Citadel.
Elon 67, The Citadel 48
Elon -11.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Sunday, Feb. 10, 2008 (0-2, -$660)
Indiana (19-3) at Ohio State (16-7)
Line: Ohio State by 2.5.
Glad to see Saturday's unranked home favorite managed to cover over its ranked visitor. Let's hope that happens again on Sunday with Ohio State against Indiana.
Ohio State 69, Indiana 60
Ohio State -2.5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
UNC-Greensboro (13-8) at Furman (4-19)
Line: UNC-Greensboro by 10.
Unless my memory sucks, I used UNC-Greensboro as a moderately sized play about a week ago. Well, I'm coming back with them. Furman just battled tough as huge underdogs against 15-9 Tennessee-Chattanooga. They won't have the energy to battle UNC-Greensboro.
UNC-Greensboro 72, Furman 56
UNC-Greensboro -10 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Saturday, Feb. 9, 2008 (2-1-1, +$460)
Akron (16-6) at Ball State (3-18)
Line: Akron by 6.
Ball State just played the game of its life, coming within three points of rival 18-5 Kent State despite being massive underdogs. There's no way they'll be ready for Akron.
Akron 73, Ball State 56
Akron -6 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Georgetown (19-2) at Louisville (17-6)
Line: Louisville by 2.5.
Unranked hosts favored over ranked visitors have done well this year; just not this week. They're still 11-6 in their previous 17. This applies to Louisville over Georgetown.
South Carolina over Vanderbilt also works, but I believe the Gamecocks will be flat for that contest.
Louisville 67, Georgetown 61
Louisville -2.5 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
Oregon State (6-16) at Stanford (19-3)
Line: Stanford by 21.5.
I have no idea how Oregon State hung with California on Thursday night, but I'm guessing they won't be able to do it again. I'm laying a ton of points here, so I'm making this play one unit.
Stanford 76, Oregon State 51
Stanford -21.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
LMU (5-18) at Portland (7-16)
Line: Portland by 11.
Portland is another team that figures to be flat, as it just nearly beat Santa Clara as a double-digit dog. I don't see why they're favored by 11 over anyone.
Portland 65, LMU 62
LMU +11 (3 Units) -- Push; -$30
Friday, Feb. 8, 2008 (0-1, -$220)
Fairfield (8-14) at Manhattan (8-14)
Line: Manhattan by 2.5.
A rare Friday play. I like cold-as-ice Manhattan over Fairfield, as the latter just won its Super Bowl, beating Niagara as a double-digit underdog. They'll be flat tonight.
Manhattan 70, Fairfield 61
Manhattan -2.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Thursday, Feb. 7, 2008 (1-0, +$100)
UCLA (20-2) at Washington State (17-4)
Line: UCLA by 2.
No unranked hosts favored over ranked visitors, and no teams I suspect will be flat, so I'm going with a small play with the Bruins here. I trust UCLA to win in a tough environment because I think they're the best team in the nation, despite what the rankings or records say.
UCLA 76, Washington State 68
UCLA -2 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Wednesday, Feb. 6, 2008 (2-2, -$380)
Connecticut (16-5) at Syracuse (16-7)
Line: Syracuse by 2.5.
A big UGH goes to Illinois State, who couldn't hold a double-digit lead in the second half. So, the unranked hosts who have been favored over the ranked visitors are now 11-4 against the spread in the last 15 instances. It applies here to Syracuse over Connecticut.
Syracuse 80, Connecticut 73
Syracuse -2.5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
Texas (17-4) at Oklahoma (15-6)
Line: Oklahoma by 2.5.
And Oklahoma over Texas as well. Let's go Sooners.
Oklahoma 78, Texas 67
Oklahoma -2.5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
Wichita State (9-13) at Evansville (6-15)
Line: Wichita State by 2.5.
I'm not sure who Wichita State is to be laying points on the road. Perhaps they're favored because they gave 11-point-favorite Creighton a close game. Who knows? They'll be mentally unprepared for Evansville.
Evansville 66, Wichita State 60
Evansville +2.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Tulane (15-6) at UTEP (13-7)
Line: UTEP by 7.
I think this line is so large - by the looks of the records, it should be -3 or -4 - because UTEP just nearly beat Memphis. Well, they put everything they had into that game, and they won't have anything left for Tulane.
Tulane 69, UTEP 67
Tulane +7 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2008 (0-1, -$440)
Drake (20-1) at Illinois State (16-6)
Line: Illinois State by 4.
Our first instance of the week where an unranked host is favored over a ranked visitor. This system is 11-3 in its previous 14.
Illinois State 74, Drake 63
Illinois State -4 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
Monday, Feb. 4, 2008 (1-0, +$100)
Louisville (16-6) at Marquette (16-4)
Line: Marquette by 2.
Does anyone find it odd that No. 16 is just a 2-point home favorite over unranked Louisville? It's even weirder that despite about 70 percent on the Golden Eagles, the line has dropped from -3 to -2. Just one small play tonight.
Louisville 72, Marquette 69
Louisville +2 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Saturday, Feb. 2, 2008 (4-1, +$980)
Pittsburgh (17-4) at Connecticut (15-5)
Line: Connecticut by 3.5.
I'm taking Connecticut because they're an unranked host favored over a ranked visitor. This system is 9-3 in its previous 12.
Connecticut 85, Pittsburgh 76
Connecticut -3.5 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
Florida (18-3) at Arkansas (15-5)
Line: Arkansas by 3.5.
And another one... By the way, why are there so many games on Saturday? They should have some of them on Friday night. The students would love that. They'd have something to do in between pre-gaming, and getting drunk at frats or bars. It just seems dumb not to have any meaningful college games on Friday night.
Arkansas 74, Florida 64
Arkansas -3.5 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
Cal Poly-SLO (8-11) at UC-Riverside (4-15)
Line: Cal Poly-SLO by 2.5.
I can't wait for this exciting Big West matchup! Cal Poly-SLO is coming off its biggest victory of the year, as it just upset Pacific as a double-digit underdog. I doubt they'll be focused when they travel to the home of Julie Cooper. I find it odd that SLO is favored by just 2.5 over pure garbage.
UC-Riverside 57, Cal Poly-SLO 55
UC-Riverside +2.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Elon (7-13) at UNC-Greensboro (12-6)
Line: UNC-Greensboro by 11.
From the Big West to the SoCon, another team that figures to be unfocused Saturday afternoon is Elon. They just played their Super Bowl against Appalachian State, nearly winning despite being a huge underdog.
UNC-Greensboro 76, Elon 57
UNC-Greensboro -11 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
California (12-7) at Washington (12-9)
Line: Washington by 3.5.
We'll finish the day off in the Pac-10, where the Golden Bears have to somehow get focused after undoubtedly getting smashed in the wake of their huge upset over top-10 Washington State less than 48 hours ago.
Washington 72, California 64
Washington -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
273-255-8 (51.7%), +$945
71-64-5 (52.6%), +$1,420
66-53-2 (55.5%), +$1,680
Career Against The Spread:
906-780-32 (53.7%), +$4,045