2017 Fantasy Football: FanDuel Locks and Value





FanDuel Locks and Values

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By Chet Gresham - @Chet_G
Posted Nov. 11, 2017.


Of course, "Locks" is a relative term, and in this case, means that these plays are locks for my FanDuel cash teams this week. These are plays I feel would be big disappointments if they didn't pan out, whereas "Values" are plays that are riskier, but the price of the player makes the risk not as impactful due to the savings you get to upgrade to more consistent players, like the ones you'll find in the "Locks" section!

Locks

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys

Prescott will have more trouble moving the ball into the red zone without Ezekiel Elliot, and Dez Bryant may not play or at least be limited, but from what I've seen of Prescott so far this season, I expect him to play well and have increased fantasy output with Elliott out. Prescott just had a big game last week with Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams as his top fantasy outlets and looked on point doing so. This game has the highest over/under of the week, and Atlanta has allowed three straight quarterbacks 18 or more fantasy points, including a big rushing day by Cam Newton last week. Prescott has rushed for four touchdowns this season and might be needed more on the ground now that Elliott is out.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

The Browns' pass defense hasn't been as bad as they were to start the season, but with Stafford at home in a dome, facing a team that is near the top in most rush defensive metrics, he should pass a lot and find success. On the season, Cleveland ranks 10th worst in allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks. A limited Marcus Mariota is the only opposing quarterback to not account for multiple touchdowns against this defense, and Stafford has the weapons to be able to hit a high floor in Week 10.

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers

Newton is once again running, and running a lot, which automatically pushes him into top-10 consideration without even thinking about his aerial attack. But this week he also gets a strong matchup in the passing game against the Dolphins, who rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and the highest completion percentage allowed of the teams playing this week.

Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars

Fournette has now had three weeks to rest his bum ankle and should be champing at the bit to play this week in a strong matchup, as the Chargers have been one of the worst defenses against opposing running backs, both on the ground and through the air. He will likely be played heavily this week in DFS, but with strong plays in Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski to pay up for, it's going to be tougher to fit these higher-priced guys in, which means you'll need to choose correctly, and Fournette has everything going for him to be an easy top-five fantasy play.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills

McCoy has been a completely different fantasy player at home than on the road over the last two seasons, and this looks like a week where he can take that home bump and also use it to bounce back from a poor fantasy showing last week. He's also had 10 days off from the Thursday night game and the Saints have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, which is also buoyed by them allowing the seventh-most receiving yards per game and fifth-most receptions to running backs.



Bilal Powell, RB, Jets

I was going to push Orleans Darkwa here, but I've already overlapped enough from my FanDuel team. I like Darkwa, but Powell has moved ahead of him for value, despite costing $700 more, because Matt Forte did not practice this week and appears to be out, which elevates Powell in a strong matchup. The Buccaneers have been awful against the pass, but recently they've been just as awful against the run. Last week, Alvin Kamara ran all over them, Jonathan Stewart rushed for a touchdown the week before, and LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson dismantled them the previous two weeks. Over their previous five games, they've allowed 163.4 total yards per game to running backs and seven total touchdowns. Elijah McGuire will get work as well, but Powell will be the lead back and is more versatile as a receiver.



A.J. Green, WR, Bengals

Green has too much pride to not want to get back out on the field and show his ability after getting ejected against the Jaguars. Before last week, he had scored four touchdowns in his previous five games and had averaged five receptions for 82 yards in every contest. There's also no reason to fear this Titans pass defense, as they've allowed the third-most touchdown passes to wide receivers and rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA. I think we'll like an angry and motivated Green this week.

Golden Tate, WR, Lions

Tate suffered a shoulder injury in Week 6, but was able to play after a Week 7 bye and has not slowed down at all, as he's caught seven passes a game over his last three and hasn't gone below 86 yards in that stretch. For the season, he has five games with seven or more receptions, tying him for the league lead with Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins. He also should avoid cornerback Jason McCourty, as he should be on Marvin Jones more often. But I still like Jones, as McCourty is just returning from a multi-week injury. Overall, the Browns' pass defense ranks 28th in DVOA, while they rank first in run defense DVOA. Look for plenty of passing by the Lions, even if they get out to an early lead.



Cameron Brate, TE, Buccaneers

Ryan Fitzpatrick targeted Brate often when he brought the Buccaneers from behind against Arizona three weeks ago, and Brate gets a good matchup against the Jets, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. They've also allowed five touchdowns in their last five games to the position and Mike Evans is suspended, which gives Brate even more upside as a red-zone target.

Evan Engram, TE, Giants

Rob Gronkowski is my favorite tight end play this week against the Broncos' weak defense against the position, but he is going to take a lot of your salary cap with him. Engram is expensive, but he is cheaper than Gronkowski, and has been extremely consistent since Odell Beckham Jr. went down, scoring a touchdown in each of the last three weeks, while the 49ers have allowed a touchdown to tight ends in each of their last three games.


Value Plays

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buccaneers

Fitzpatrick's price on FanDuel is $6,100, giving him a pretty low bar against a weak Jets defense. Fitzmagic can live up to his nickname at any time, but he also can completely implode at any time as well. I do like Josh McCown more this week, but he also costs $1,300 more and I think this game could turn out to be high scoring, as both defenses are bad.

Eli Manning, QB, Giants

Manning faces a 49ers pass defense that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in each of their last four games and Manning has two strong receivers in Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram to throw to. Manning is always risky, but now that his price has dropped to $6,700, I think you can use him in tournaments.

Adam Humphries, WR, Buccaneers

With no Mike Evans this week, Humphries should see an uptick in targets in a good matchup. If I need salary relief, he is likely to be my first choice this week.

Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants

Shepard will continue to be Eli Manning's top wide receiver target and will only need to really compete for targets with Evan Engram, which should keep him involved against the 49ers, who have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.

Mohamed Sanu, WR, Falcons

Since Sanu has returned from injury, he's picked up his play, with 15 receptions and two touchdowns over his last three games. His price remains low at $5,900, and he gets a nice matchup against the Cowboys, who have allowed the most touchdowns and third-most receptions to wide receivers per game.

Some other plays I like in no particular order: Josh McCown, Jared Goff, Devin Funchess, Robby Anderson, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Jordan Howard, Carlos Hyde, Alfred Morris, Delanie Walker, Kyle Rudolph, Garrett Celek




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More 2017 Fantasy Football Articles:
Fantasy Football Rankings

2017 Fantasy Football Rankings:
2017 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks - 9/6 (Walt)
Chet Gresham's Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings - 8/28 (Chet)
2017 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs - 9/6 (Walt)
Chet Gresham's Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings - 8/28 (Chet)
2017 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers - 9/6 (Walt)
Chet Gresham's Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings - 8/28 (Chet)
2017 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends - 9/6 (Walt)
Chet Gresham's Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings - 8/28 (Chet)
2017 Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers - 8/18 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Rankings: Defenses - 8/18 (Walt)
Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings - 5/12 (Walt)
Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings: Dynasty - 5/12 (Walt)
Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings: Dynasty - 5/12 (Chet)



2017 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts:
2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: PPR - 9/1 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Standard - 8/31 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 2-QB, PPR - 8/25 (Chet)
2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: PPR - 8/24 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: PPR - 8/17 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Standard - 8/10 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: PPR - 8/3 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Standard - 7/27 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: PPR - 7/26 (Chet)
2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: PPR - 7/20 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: PPR - 7/14 (Chet)
2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Standard - 7/13 (Walt)



2017 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets:
2017 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 250 - 9/6 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 250 PPR - 9/6 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 250 2-QB - 9/6 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 250 Touchdown League - 9/6 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Custom - 9/6 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football: Dynasty Rankings - 9/6 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football PPR Rankings - 8/16 (Chet)
2017 Fantasy Football Spreadsheets - 9/6 (Walt)

2017 Fantasy Football Articles:
2017 Fantasy Football Stock Report: OTAs, Training Camp - 9/6 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Sleepers - 9/2 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Busts - 9/2 (Walt)
2017 NFL Preseason Game Recaps - 9/1 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football Stock Report: Preseason - 9/1 (Walt)
2017 Fantasy Football: Running Backs with the Most Carries - 1/31 (Walt)





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