Ben Roethlisberger -
Roethlisberger's home/away splits continue to be a good benchmark for his upside at home, which is extremely high. On average over the last three years, Roethlisberger has thrown for 339 yards and 2.95 touchdowns per game at home. This season he played in just six home games, but averaged 319 yards, 3.3 touchdowns and under one interception to go along with a 70.8 completion percentage. So, he's not too bad at home. How are the Dolphins at stopping the pass? Well, not very good. Let's take a look at the quarterback stats from the last six weeks: Tom Brady 276/3/0, Tyrod Taylor 329/3/0, Petty-Fitzpatrick 266/1/3, Carson Palmer 145/2/2 (downpour game), Joe Flacco 381/4/1, and Colin Kaepernick 296/3/1 (113 rushing yards). That makes for the worst pass defense in the league over the last six games and Roethlisberger should have a field day.
Russell Wilson -
Wilson has talked about removing his knee brace for this game. He says he doesn't need it anymore, which is a great sign for his escapability, which he will need behind his offensive line. The talent deficient offensive line is worrisome, but Wilson has been a strong play at home with four top-five fantasy games out of his last five home games. The Lions also don't make a tough opponent against the pass. They rank dead last in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass and have allowed an amazing 72.6 percent of all passes to be completed. I believe that is a record in futility. On average, the Lions allow two passing touchdowns and 19 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, which is the worst for all teams playing this weekend. Ben Roethlisberger probably has a bit higher upside, but Wilson is cheaper and I don't feel too bad about dropping down to Wilson if it helps me make the best team.
Other plays: Aaron Rodgers
Lamar Miller -
Miller isn't on the injury report this week after getting Week's 16 and 17 off for his ankle injury. The Raiders are susceptible to the run and ranked second in the league for 20-plus-yard runs allowed. Only Miami allowed more total yards and yards per carry to running backs of the teams playing this week, and Miller has consistently played better at home this season. Add in the fact that Connor Cook will have trouble scoring on this Texans defense, and you have a recipe for Miller to see a huge workload, either with a lead or a very close score. There is a chance Miller reaggravates his ankle injury, but he appears to be as fresh as any back at this point in the season. And he's a slight bit cheaper than Le'Veon Bell, 4.2k cheaper on FanDuel. It will be tough to fit Bell into a good lineup, but Miller will allow some room to wiggle in solid picks.
- If you are looking for ways to get players like Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, etc? you are going to need to find some cheaper plays and Perkins is one of those for me this week. Perkins has slowly been getting more work than Rashad Jennings and has been outplaying him on a per touch basis. All signs point to him getting the majority of the work this week, but it will likely still just be a small majority. For his price I think we can take that, as 15 touches is right in his outlook. The Packers run defense started off extremely strong, but over the last 10 weeks they've allowed 136.6 total yards and one touchdown per game to opposing running backs.
Other plays: Le'Veon Bell, Zach Zenner
The Lions have Darius Slay as their best cover man, but he doesn't cover in the slot where Baldwin plays. The Lions also lost their best slot cornerback to injury a month ago, so they've been scrambling to find someone who will succeed there. They haven't found that player on their team unfortunately for them, but if you play Baldwin, you should be the fortunate one.
If Ladarius Green doesn't play (he missed Friday's practice and is still in concussion protocol), then Rogers gets a good bump in usage. With Green out over the last three games Rogers has averaged 7 targets and 83 receiving yards. Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are of course the two best plays on this offense, but Rogers is still a nice value play in a good matchup.
Davante Adams -
Adams can't seem to hold onto a ball, but he still caught 12 touchdown passes from Aaron Rodgers this season and won't have to face Janoris Jenkins. His price isn't as cheap as I'd like, but a touchdown at home is very likely in this game.
Other plays: Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard
C.J. Fiedorowicz -
Fiedorowicz is easily Brock Osweiler's second favorite target and when you consider that the No. 1 target is DeAndre Hopkins, it's amazing that Fiedorowicz is even close to Hopkins in targets. Since Week 5, Fiedorowicz has averaged 7.3 targets a game. The Raiders rank 23rd in DVOA against tight ends and they've allowed the sixth most yards and eighth most touchdowns to tight ends. Fiedorowicz is cheaper than Jimmy Graham and safer than Jared Cook.
Jared Cook -
Cook gets a nice matchup this week against the Giants who have allowed the sixth most receptions and fourth most yards to opposing tight ends this season. Janoris Jenkins could slow Jordy Nelson down enough to get Cook a few more targets as well. His floor is low, but he has possibly the highest upside of any tight end this weekend.