This is a list of my top 2016 fantasy football busts - players you should avoid unless they fall far in your draft. The Average Draft Position (ADP) is found on FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
I was dead on with some of my busts last year, namely Victor Cruz, Nelson Agholor, Joseph Randle and DeMarco Murray, all of whom were being chosen in the sixth round or earlier. However, I whiffed big time on two players: Tom Brady and Brandon Marshall.
Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs ADP: 2.02.
Jamaal Charles hasn't regained the full-time running back role despite his return, as Spencer Ware has been handling most of the first-string duties. The Chiefs aren't going to use Charles all that much early in the year in an effort to preserve him for the playoffs. Plus, Ware has been very impressive. I've been avoiding Charles all summer, and I'd urge you to do the same.
Matt Forte, RB, Jets. ADP: 4.06.
It feels like Matt Forte is being chosen two or three rounds too early. Forte is not nearly the dominant player he once was, and he's certainly not going to handle the full workload on his new team; all reports indicate that Forte and Bilal Powell will share touches evenly. The Jets have a crowded backfield, so I wouldn't take Forte before the sixth frame.
Arian Foster, RB, Dolphins. ADP: 5.02.
Arian Foster had a solid third preseason game, but it doesn't matter because he'll be injured by the middle of October. Drafting him in the fifth round is a huge mistake.
Chris Ivory, RB, Jaguars. ADP: 6.06.
Everyone seems to remember how dominant Chris Ivory was in the early part of the 2015 campaign, but they seem to have forgotten that he was so bad down the stretch that he was benched and barely used in Week 17's must-win contest. Ivory, like Marion Barber before him, isn't going to last very long because of his running style. He's not even Jacksonville's starter, so taking him in the sixth round is just dumb.
Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders. ADP: 3.08.
It's mind-boggling to me that players like Jeremy Hill and DeMarco Murray are being chosen after Latavius Murray. Oakland's coaching staff soured on Latavius Murray last year, and there's no reason to think that 2016 will be drastically different. Murray is way too risky to warrant a late selection in the third round.
Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots. ADP: 4.12.
Taking Julian Edelman in the fourth round just seems crazy to me. Edelman has had surgery on his foot twice in the past 10 months, and he just re-injured it recently. The Patriots should consider themselves lucky if Edelman plays eight games.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons. ADP: 2.07.
Most remember the great start Devonta Freeman had to begin his 2015 campaign, but few recall how much he struggled down the stretch, gaining 3.4 yards per carry or worse in five of his final six contests. He didn't get off to a good start in his preseason opener. He's currently way overdrafted at 2.07.
Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals. ADP: 7.06.
Carson Palmer has looked off to me through two preseason games. His arm strength seems diminished. Perhaps it's nothing, but there's a chance Palmer is on a major decline. I wouldn't trust him in the seventh round.
John Brown, WR, Cardinals. ADP: 7.01.
John Brown missed practice Tuesday with a headache. Brown missed two-plus weeks of practice with concussion symptoms and was finally cleared. Now, he's likely to go back into concussion protocol, as he continues to have headaches. Given this troubling issue, as well as Carson Palmer's preseason struggles, I'd stay as far away from Brown as possible.
Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers. ADP: 2.12.
I'd be worried about Doug Martin this season. He was second in rushing this past year, but he signed a big contract extension in the spring. Martin had been lethargic beforehand, so will he revert to that state? Also, the Buccaneers appear to be interested in allowing Charles Sims to handle more of a workload.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks. ADP: 11.03.
I warned you about Victor Cruz last summer, telling you not to draft him in any round. I'll say the same thing about Jimmy Graham. The Seattle tight end sustained a torn patellar tendon, which is nearly impossible to come back from, period, let alone less than a year.
Torrey Smith, WR, 49ers. ADP: 10.05.
Why is anyone drafting Torrey Smith? Seriously, I don't think I'd take him in the 110th round; let alone the 10th.
I like your write up on Trubisky. I also like the gutsy move of Mahomes at #2 especially with Garrett on the board. However, there are glaring mistakes elsewhere. No way, the Saints draft a RB in 1st round after paying Peterson to be the primary back up to Ingram. Plus, they desperately need talent on the defensive side of the ball. Also, the Browns 2nd pick wouldn't be a rush OLB when they are converting to a base 4-3 and have Jamie Collins at the Sam.