2016 Fantasy Football: MFL10 Industry Draft







By Chet Gresham - @Chet_G
Updated May 12, 2016

Follow @walterfootball for updates.

You can check out my MFL10 Primer to see what I'm getting into here, but suffice it to say, you want to pick the players who will score as many fantasy points in 2016 as possible and you don't have to worry about winning an arbitrary matchup each week.

After the 2016 NFL Draft Mr. John Paulsen of 4for4.com asked me to join in an MFL10 to celebrate the rookies finding homes. He had a host of top fantasy analysts join up, so below you can get a pretty good look at what some of the top fantasy footballers are thinking about the draft fallout.

PickOvrTeamPlayer
1.011Mike Clay - ESPNBrown, Antonio PIT WR
1.022Fantasy Douche - RotoVizBeckham, Odell NYG WR
1.033Evan Silva - RotoworldElliott, Ezekiel DAL RB (R)
1.044Sigmund Bloom - FootballguysJones, Julio ATL WR
1.055Sean Koerner - Stats.comBell, Le'Veon PIT RB
1.066Jeff Ratcliffe - Pro Football FocusHopkins, DeAndre HOU WR
1.077Andy Behrens -- YahooJohnson, David ARI RB
1.088John Paulsen - 4for4.comRobinson, Allen JAC WR
1.099Chet Gresham - WalterFootball.comGurley, Todd RAM RB
1.1010Dave Richard - CBS.comGronkowski, Rob NEP TE
1.1111Bob Harris - Football DiehardsPeterson, Adrian MIN RB
1.1212Pat Fitzmaurice -- SI.comBryant, Dez DAL WR


Round 1:
Of course, the biggest surprise was Silva taking Ezekiel Elliott as the first running back off the board and the third-overall pick. I like Le'Veon Bell more, but I sure can see how Elliott would end up as the best running back this season. With the best line in the game and only one true go-to receiver in Dez Bryant, Elliott could easily see enough work to hit his upside.... I was happy to get Todd Gurley as the ninth pick. I feel his floor is higher than most backs this year.... David Johnson going ahead of Gurley is somewhat surprising, but only because things are so tight here in the first round. Johnson's upside is tremendous in Arizona, and is probably higher than Gurley's, I just feel Gurley is slightly safer with similar upside.... Bob Harris went the safe route with Adrian Peterson and getting him near the end of the first round is great. We know Peterson's yearly averages, and there's no other player out there who has put up top numbers as consistently.

PickOvrTeamPlayer
2.0113Pat Fitzmaurice -- SI.comGreen, A.J. CIN WR
2.0214Bob Harris - Football DiehardsEvans, Mike TBB WR
2.0315Dave Richard - CBS.comCooper, Amari OAK WR
2.0416Chet Gresham - WalterFootball.comWatkins, Sammy BUF WR
2.0517John Paulsen - 4for4.comAllen, Keenan SDC WR
2.0618Andy Behrens -- YahooJeffery, Alshon CHI WR
2.0719Jeff Ratcliffe - Pro Football FocusFreeman, Devonta ATL RB
2.0820Sean Koerner - Stats.comNelson, Jordy GBP WR
2.0921Sigmund Bloom - Footballguys.comMiller, Lamar HOU RB
2.1022Evan Silva - RotoworldCooks, Brandin NOS WR
2.1123Fantasy Douche - RotoVizThomas, Demaryius DEN WR
2.1224Mike Clay - ESPNIngram, Mark NOS RB





Round 2:
I am not a fan of Round 2 this season. Of course, there are plenty of good players available, but the risk seems much higher than I'd like for this early in a draft. That being said, I still feel perfectly fine grabbing A.J. Green early, especially with Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones hitting the road. Pat Fitzmaurice took Green and Dez Bryant at the turn, which is a great double-up on top, safe receivers.... I'm still not completely sold on Mike Evans and Amari Cooper this early in the second round, but plenty aren't sold on my pick of Sammy Watkins either. For me, it was between him, Keenan Allen and Alshon Jeffery, who went right after me. Jeffery's injury history is slightly concerning, as well as Allen, but Watkins isn't devoid of nicks and strains. Mainly it was a gut call, as I like Watkins' upside slightly more than the other two.... I've had trouble deciding on where I'd like to take Jordy Nelson this season. I do wish he came at more of a discount, but he has no competition and as long as he's healthy, he will get his normal number of targets from Aaron Rodgers.

PickOvrTeamPlayer
3.0125Mike Clay - ESPNMarshall, Brandon NYJ WR
3.0226Fantasy Douche - RotoVizLacy, Eddie GBP RB
3.0327Evan Silva - RotoworldCharles, Jamaal KCC RB
3.0428Sigmund Bloom - FootballguysHilton, T.Y. IND WR
3.0529Sean Koerner - Stats.comMcCoy, LeSean BUF RB
3.0630Jeff Ratcliffe - Pro Football FocusRawls, Thomas SEA RB
3.0731Andy Behrens -- YahooEdelman, Julian NEP WR
3.0832John Paulsen - 4for4.comMartin, Doug TBB RB
3.0933Chet Gresham - WalterFootball.comAnderson, C.J. DEN RB
3.1034Dave Richard - CBS.comCobb, Randall GBP WR
3.1135Bob Harris - Football DiehardsMurray, DeMarco TEN RB
3.1236Pat Fitzmaurice -- SI.comMaclin, Jeremy KCC WR


Round 3:
I love getting Brandon Marshall in the third round and had some inkling of hope that he would fall to me, but no luck as Mike Clay snatched him up at the turn.... This is the round we start seeing running backs go, with seven of the 12 picks going that way. In the previous two rounds, eight of the 24 picks were running backs, so the trend of wide receivers early is holding like it was before the NFL Draft.... Evan Silva grabbed Jamaal Charles 27th overall, and that's a great spot for Charles. He does have competition on his team and is coming off another major injury, but he's still JC Superstar. I'll take the risk on him there.... I was looking to go wide receiver with my third pick, but I just liked C.J. Anderson more than what was available at receiver. Of course, he needs to stay healthy, but as long as he does, I think he's a Top-5 back in an offense that will use him fully....

PickOvrTeamPlayer
4.0137Pat Fitzmaurice -- SI.comForte, Matt NYJ RB
4.0238Bob Harris - Football DiehardsBenjamin, Kelvin CAR WR
4.0339Dave Richard - CBS.comRodgers, Aaron GBP QB
4.0440Chet Gresham - WalterFootball.comHyde, Carlos SFO RB
4.0541John Paulsen - 4for4.comLandry, Jarvis MIA WR
4.0642Andy Behrens -- YahooBaldwin, Doug SEA WR
4.0743Jeff Ratcliffe - Pro Football FocusReed, Jordan WAS TE
4.0844Sean Koerner - Stats.comLewis, Dion NEP RB
4.0945Sigmund Bloom - Footballguys.comTate, Golden DET WR
4.1046Evan Silva - RotoworldFloyd, Michael ARI WR
4.1147Fantasy Douche - RotoVizGordon, Melvin SDC RB
4.1248Mike Clay - ESPNDecker, Eric NYJ WR





Round 4:
Our first quarterback goes to Dave Richard who selects Aaron Rodgers. In these "Industry" drafts, we often see quarterbacks waited on for most of the draft. There's always someone who caves, but even then it usually doesn't start a run on signal-callers. Rodgers in the fourth round is a bit early for me, but I'm planning on grabbing a couple of quarterbacks later in the draft. With Jordy Nelson back and Eddie Lacy slimmed down, Rodgers is easily back in the top quarterback conversation, and in normal drafts getting him here would be, uh, normal.... Matt Forte is an interesting pick this year. In PPR leagues like this one, he should have plenty of upside, but he also has a lot of competition and at his not-so-young age, the Jets may look to reduce his reps somewhat. But at 37th overall, I can see taking the risk in a full-PPR league.... With my fourth pick, I once again was looking to grab a wide receiver, but when I saw Carlos Hyde was still there, I had to grab him. My hope for him is mostly due to the up-tempo running game of Chip Kelly. There are plenty of opportunities for running backs in his offense, and Hyde has committed to slimming down and building up his endurance to stay on the field for 10 straight plays.... Doug Baldwin and Eric Decker were the two receivers I contemplated, and both of them went in this round. I believe both are being underrated, and I've got them on many of my MFL10 teams so far.

PickOvrTeamPlayer
5.0149Mike Clay - ESPNOlsen, Greg CAR TE
5.0250Fantasy Douche - RotoVizBernard, Giovani CIN RB
5.0351Evan Silva - RotoworldBrown, John ARI WR
5.0452Sigmund Bloom - FootballguysEifert, Tyler CIN TE
5.0553Sean Koerner - Stats.comSanders, Emmanuel DEN WR
5.0654Jeff Ratcliffe - Pro Football FocusMoncrief, Donte IND WR
5.0755Andy Behrens -- YahooNewton, Cam CAR QB
5.0856John Paulsen - 4for4.comLangford, Jeremy CHI RB
5.0957Chet Gresham - WalterFootball.comJones, Marvin DET WR
5.1058Dave Richard - CBS.comMurray, Latavius OAK RB
5.1159Bob Harris - Football DiehardsHill, Jeremy CIN RB
5.1260Pat Fitzmaurice -- SI.comFitzgerald, Larry ARI WR


Round 5:
I'm probably skipping Greg Olsen this year, as I think the re-addition of Kelvin Benjamin and the growth of Devin Funchess should hold Olsen's upside down a bit.... Evan Silva must feel like this is the year Larry Fitzgerald hits the skids completely, as he's taken Michael Floyd and John Brown with his last two picks. I do agree that Fitzgerald was declining in his mostly possession receiver role last season, but the Cardinals are so good at spreading the ball around to their receivers that I'd rather wait on one when I can.... Both Bengals running backs went in this round. It is tough to know exactly how they will be used with Hue Jackson in Cleveland now, but in PPR, the safe bet is with Gio Bernard, who outplayed Jeremy Hill most of last season and was the better PPR back. I will most likely skip on Hill this season. He just wasn't very good last year and made the bulk of his fantasy points on touchdowns, which are never a given.... Golden Tate went to Sigmund Bloom in the fourth round, but I'm actually higher on Marvin Jones this season. I think he's a better route runner and can win better in the red zone. I also like the way Jim Bob Cooter and Matthew Stafford very quickly got on the same page with the offense last season, and I don't expect a cut back in pass attempts, which were plentiful in 2015.

PickOvrTeamPlayer
6.0161Pat Fitzmaurice -- SI.comJohnson, Duke CLE RB
6.0262Bob Harris - Football DiehardsKelce, Travis KCC TE
6.0363Dave Richard - CBS.comParker, DeVante MIA WR
6.0464Chet Gresham - WalterFootball.comAjayi, Jay MIA RB
6.0565John Paulsen - 4for4.comMatthews, Jordan PHI WR
6.0666Andy Behrens -- YahooStewart, Jonathan CAR RB
6.0767Jeff Ratcliffe - Pro Football FocusJackson, DeSean WAS WR
6.0868Sean Koerner - Stats.comHurns, Allen JAC WR
6.0969Sigmund Bloom - Footballguys.comCrabtree, Michael OAK WR
6.1070Evan Silva - RotoworldMathews, Ryan PHI RB
6.1171Fantasy Douche - RotoVizJones, Matt WAS RB
6.1272Mike Clay - ESPNWoodhead, Danny SDC RB





Round 6:
I must be a glutton for punishment with yet another running back pick, but I'm starting to feel better about Jay Ajayi getting the bulk of the work. It's a gamble, but in the sixth round, it's one I'm willing to make.... Travis Kelce may be my favorite pick here, as I think he's set up for a Top-2 tight end season this year.... Matt Jones, much like Jay Ajayi, should get first dibs as the starting running back, and that gives him some value in the sixth. I'm not as high on Jones as I am Ajayi, but they both are average to above-average ball-carriers and will need plenty of snaps to produce.... Ryan Mathews is the forgotten man so far this season, but he's sitting atop the running back depth chart in Philadelphia right now, and when he's healthy, he is a very good player.

Check out Chet's regular MFL10 Draft!

Continue to Rounds 7 through 12

Continue to Rounds 13 through 20

For a refresher, check out Chet's MFL10 Primer.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Rankings.






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