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College Basketball Picks

College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2014-15): 1-0 (+$200)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2013-14): 11-14-1 (-$460)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2012-13): 11-16 (-$1,380)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2011-12): 28-29-1 (-$1,270)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2010-11): 47-42-4 (+$185)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2009-10): 46-40-1 (+$880)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2008-09): 66-53-2 (+$1,680)
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Sunday, March 22, 2015

West Virginia vs. Maryland.
Moneyline: West Virginia +100.

8:40 PM ET (Game 727-728)

The math says that West Virginia +100 (currently available at 5Dimes) is the best value of the day. You only need to hit 50 percent to break even on this number, yet I'd say there's more than a 50-50 chance the Mountaineers take this; Maryland has been overrated by ESPN all year, and it should've lost to Valparaiso in the opening round.

Dayton is another team I'm looking at, but I'm hoping it gets up to +180 (or at least +175).

I may post another pick later. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.

College Basketball Pick: West Virginia +100 (1.5 Units)


Saturday, March 21, 2015 (1-0, +$200)

Utah vs. Georgetown.
Moneyline: Utah -180.

7:45 PM ET (Game 525-526)

I've been discussing math pertaining to college basketball over the past couple of days with my LVH SuperContest partner Matvei, and with the help of some resources, I think we've developed something. Our projected Thursday moneyline picks were winners, and forecasted selections on Friday went 1-1 for a profit (one unit on UC-Irvine +340; 2.5 units on Dayton +140).

This all has to do with win probabilities and a break-even percentage for certain moneyline values. It says to take Utah -180 for two units today. I like the Utes a lot, and I'd say there's more than a 64.2-percent chance they'd win, which is what the break-even percentage for a -180 moneyline is (available on Bovada).

I'm also monitoring Butler, which needs to be at +175 or +180. It's currently +150 (fell a bit from last night), but the game starts at 9:40, so hopefully the line will move in our favor.

College Basketball Pick: Utah -180 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200

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