Walter I think you're right to go back to psychology being a huge factor in picking games. I think where you error is these one-liners that mostly have to do with what happened during their last game. Take the Chargers for instance, the franchise has been slowly crumbling all season, all the fans saw it a mile away. The failed draft picks, sideline spats, injuries, losing to bad teams, frustrated QB with nobody to throw to, and a coach who has lost the locker room. These were all bigger psychological factors than whatever happened the previous game or looking ahead or whatever. The Packers finally took enough heat from the media to get pissed off enough to win a a game. They hit a tipping point before beating MIN. I think you have to look at the bigger factors that are playing into a team's motivation, if you can find them, and use those to your advantage. As a Charger fan I didn't go anywhere near that bet because I knew nobody would get up for any game until McCoy is gone. Nobody on that team cares right now, except for Rivers.
This is still my favorite site and eventhough the picks have been bad, the analysis still helps for fantasy purposes. Also, when I pair your picks up with a couple other cappers and get rid of the ones you disagree on I tend to do pretty well.
Finally, taking favorites has been brutal lately. I'm currently trying to stay away from any team favorited by more than a TD, I'll tease it if needed. There has been so much randomness that it seems like taking points with decent teams might be a good strategy.
...Yea sure Indiana U is #13th in the country, at 4-1 these guys got outplayed in the second half today (AT HOME) and only missed the cover by 10.5 points.. Yikes and another teaser loss. I had KY -16.5 in that Indy debacle and I'm now moving them to another teaser play. This is what I have left for today in college basketball: Three team teaser with: Maryland -4, Kansas -1, NC -2.5. Another: Vandy -2.5, KY -16.5, one open. Can't find anything else in NBA..so just GST -9 today to close out a teaser play. NHL: I'm taking Dallas -175 to close out 2 different pars that have already been reduced now to a two team par, (Patriot -7 push last night.) Hedging with Ottawa +155 on the comeback. GLTA tonight.
7. Harrison Barnes, F, North Carolina: C Grade
I don't love this pick, but I don't hate it either. Barnes, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson give the Warriors a ton of scorers on the wing, so two questions comes to mind: will there be enough shots to go around and who is going to play defense?
30. Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt: B- Grade
The Warriors add some size inside, which they didn't necessarily need since Andrew Bogut and Andris Biedrins are already on the roster. Ezeli brings some defense to the paint, but is not incredibly skilled on the offensive end. I would have rather seen Golden State roll the dice a bit here rather than playing it safe, but the team does have a pair of second-round picks as well.
35. Draymond Green, F, Michigan State: A Grade
This is a terrific second-round value for the Warriors as Green's versatility, intangibles and basketball IQ will serve him well as a possible rotation guy in the NBA. Golden State does need some depth at power forward, and, while Green is a bit undersized, he will bring energy off the bench.
52. Ognjen Kuzmic, C, Bosnia and Herzegovina: C Grade
With four picks in the draft, I figured the Warriors would take at least one foreign guy. Kuzmic might be a factor in the NBA in a couple of years.
*** 2012 NBA Offseason Needs and Free Agents listed below this comment box. ***
2011-12 Season Summary:
First-year head coach Mark Jackson didn't exactly make good on his introductory press conference promise of leading the Warriors to the playoffs this season. It wasn't Jackson's fault though that he fell short of his guarantee.
Injuries affected the core of the Warrior roster. Stephen Curry was bothered by an ankle injury and only played in 26 games. His backcourt mate, Monta Ellis, was dealt for center Andrew Bogut, who didn't suit up in a single game for Golden State, also because of a banged up ankle.
David Lee was shut down late in the season due to a torn abdominal muscle as rumblings began that Golden State was tanking late in the season to keep their first-round pick in the 2012 NBA Draft. (The Warriors need their first-round pick to fall in the top seven otherwise it ends up going to Utah.) For one game late in the season, Golden State actually started five rookies.
Of those new faces, Klay Thompson proved that he can also score at the NBA level. Thompson averaged 18.6 points per game over the final month of the season which certainly helped fill the void left by Ellis. Second-round picks Charles Jenkins and Jeremy Tyler were thrust into larger roles that quite honestly, they weren't ready for, which contributed to the Warriors' poor record. Golden State also got solid offensive production from veterans Brandon Rush and Dorrell Wright, but remained one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
Golden State now enters the offseason with little flexibility in free agency since Richard Jefferson and Andris Biedrins are eating up more than $19 million in cap space for next season. Those contracts are likely untradeable since both players own player options for 2013-14 worth a combined $20-plus million. With a solid core of veterans and some promising youngsters, the Warriors aren't that far off from reaching Jackson's initial goal of getting Golden State back to the postseason.
1. Get Healthy:
Andrew Bogut was sidelined due to season-ending ankle surgery, while Stephen Curry underwent ankle surgery this offseason. Both should be ready for the start of next season, and the Warriors need that duo at full strength if they have any hope of competing for a Western Conference playoff spot.
2. Frontcourt Depth:
Andris Biedrins suffered through an embarrassingly horrendous season, and the team dealt Ekpe Udoh as part of the Bogut trade. Jeremy Tyler did show promise as a young big man but the Warriors would be wise to add some depth up front especially since Bogut has experienced some injury-riddled seasons the past couple of years.
3. Distributing Point Guard:
After signing Nate Robinson to fill the short-term role of back-up point guard, Golden State should look to add a true distributor to play behind Curry and also provide insurance in case Curry does not return at 100 percent. Charles Jenkins did see time at the one but is more of a combo guard than true floor general. Bringing in a true distributor would also give Jackson the flexibility of allowing Curry to play off the ball some more.
4. Re-sign Rush?:
Brandon Rush becomes a restricted free agent this season and has a qualifying offer worth almost $4.1 million which the Warriors will certainly extend his way. The question becomes whether or not Rush is worth signing to a long-term extension that would almost certainly result in a raise. Thompson appears to be the shooting guard of the future, but it never hurts to have a bench player like Rush. It just depends on what the price tag ends up being.