PGA Picks (Travelers): -$425
PGA Picks (Rocket Mortgage): +$1,025
PGA Picks (John Deere): +$4,080
PGA Picks (Scottish + Barbasol): -$1,115
PGA Picks (British Open): -$625
PGA Picks (3M Open): -$705
PGA Picks (Wyndham): -$45
PGA Picks (St. Jude): +$2,305
PGA Picks (BMW): +$1,310
PGA Picks (2023): +$5,755
PGA Picks (2020): +$270
PGA Bets for the Tour Championship:
We won another tournament, as Viktor Hovland led a charge from behind to win the BMW Championship. The final golf tournament of the season is coming up, as the top 30 golfers will battle in Atlanta at the Tour Championship. Betting this one is tricky because everyone starts the tournament with a score. Scottie Scheffler is the leader at -10, which is why he’s the overwhelming favorite. This dynamic has given us some nice values, however.
Viktor Hovland to win the Tour Championship +555 (Bookmaker)
I believe Viktor Hovland will win the Tour Championship. You need to putt well at East Lake, which is something Scottie Scheffler doesn’t do well. Hovland begins only two back of Scheffler, which would have given them a tie at the BMW. In that case, I believe Hovland would have beaten Scheffler in a playoff. I said this last week, but Hovland somehow ups his game at harder courses, and East Lake certainly qualifies.
Betting 3 Units to win 16.65 (to win +550)
Patrick Cantlay to win the Tour Championship +2115 (Bookmaker)
Patrick Cantlay begins at -4. If you think that’s too difficult to overcome, Rory McIlroy beat Scottie Scheffler despite starting at -4 last year. Cantlay can do it as well. He’s actually No. 1 in my rankings, which distributes 20 percent to driving distance, 35 percent to accuracy, 30 percent to approach, and 15 percent to putting.
Betting 1 Unit to win 21.15 (to win +2115)
Max Homa to win the Tour Championship +4650 (Bookmaker)
I’m prepared to be a flaming Homa-sexual this week, as Max Homa comes in third in my rankings. Like Patrick Cantlay, Homa begins at -4, but he can overcome that if he performs up to his abilities. Also, this likely means nothing, but I had a dream that Homa won the Tour Championship, so I’d be lying if I said that didn’t influence this wager at all.
Betting 1 Unit to win 46.5 (to win +4650)
Lucas Glover to win the Tour Championship +6050 (Bookmaker)
We’re betting the number here, as Lucas Glover’s odds should be much better than +6050. Glover comes in tied for eighth in my rankings, and he’s also beginning this tournament at -5. Automatic Glover has been the hottest golfer over the past couple of months, so I like him as my long shot this week.
Betting 1 Unit to win 60.5 (to win +6050)
Seppulon Straka to finish in the top 10 +750 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Seppulon Straka begins at par, so it would take a host of miracles for him to win this tournament. However, I like him to make a charge up the leaderboard and potentially finish in the top 10. Straka comes in at seventh in my rankings, so the +750 to finish in the top 10 seems like great value.
Betting 1 Unit to win 7.5 (finish top 10 +750)
Good luck to everyone this weekend! Here are my PGA Rankings:
PGA Bets for the BMW Championship:
It was great hitting our 90/1 bet on Lucas Glover, though it was quite the sweat. It was obviously well worth it, especially after some down weeks. Let’s keep on winning as we advance to the semi-finals of the Fex Ex Cup Championship.
Patrick Cantlay to win the BMW Championship +1100 (Bookmaker)
This course is a very tricky one. It requires great driving and accuracy, while the approach stat can’t be ignored either. When combining everything, as well as a shade to putting, Patrick Cantlay is first in my rankings. Yes, even above Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler. Given that Cantlay is No. 1, I have to bet him, even at 11/1.
Betting 2 Units to win 22 (to win +1100)
Viktor Hovland to win the BMW Championship +1850 (Bookmaker)
Viktor Hovland is third in my formula this week, with Scottie Scheffler in between him and Cantlay. We’re not getting great odds with Scheffler, but the +1850 with Hovland is appealing. Hovland always seems to play great on the tough courses, so perhaps he’ll come through for us this week.
Betting 1.3 Units to win 24.05 (to win +1850)
Tommy Fleetwood to win the BMW Championship +2500 (Bovada); finish in the top 10 +175 (DraftKings)
Tommy Fleetwood is a late add here. Fleetwood has had so many top-10 finishes recently, and he lines up well for this course. His driving accuracy has been off the charts in the past couple of months, which is what has turned me on to this bet.
Betting 1 Units to win 25 (to win +2500)
Betting 1 Units to win 1.75 (finish top 10 +175)
Rickie Fowler to win the BMW Championship +4000 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +270 (FanDuel)
Rickie Fowler has made huge improvements to his game, so he has a good chance to win this tournament. Fowler is terrific when it comes to driving distance and approach, and he’s accurate enough to win at this course.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 20 (to win +4000)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 1.35 (finish top 10 +270)
Tony Finau to win the BMW Championship +4500 (FanDuel); finish in the top 10 +320 (FanDuel)
Tony Finau has had quite the fall from grace to be 45/1 at this tournament, but this course sets up well for him. Finau’s main issue has been his putting, but that aspect doesn’t mean as much in this tournament. Finau excels where it matters most here, so he could be a surprise winner at the BMW.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 27.5 (to win +4500)
Betting 0.35 Units to win 1.12 (finish top 10 +320)
Seppulon Straka to win the BMW Championship +11050 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +450 (BetMGM/DraftKings)
Our long shot won last week. How about two in a row? It’s insane to me that Seppulon Straka is 110/1 on Bookmaker. Straka is FIFTH in my rankings, only behind Cantlay, Scheffler, Hovland, and Rahm. He has improved his driving distance recently, and he’s elite when it comes to accuracy and approach. He fits this course so well, and it’s not too long ago that he won a tournament for us.
Betting 1 Unit to win 110.5 (to win +11050)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 2.25 (finish top 10 +450)
Good luck to everyone this weekend! Here are my PGA Rankings:
PGA Bets for the St. Jude Championship:
Ugh. Russell Henley was in first prior to the rain delay. Afterward, he bogied thrice. Lucas Glover, on the other hand, had his ball hit the cart and then bounce into play. Sometimes, it feels like I’m cursed.
Collin Morikawa to win the St. Jude Championship +2500 (BetMGM); finish in the top 10 +210 (FanDuel)
I’m combining ball striking (40%), approach (45%) and putting (15%) this week, and when I do that, Collin Morikawa finishes fourth. He’s 10th in ball striking and second in approach. This course is made for him, so I think 25/1 is a great price.
Betting 1 Unit to win 25 (to win +2500)
Betting 1 Unit to win 2.1 (finish top 10 +210)
Rickie Fowler to win the St. Jude Championship +3450 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +260 (DraftKings)
I love this number for Rickie Fowler. When combining ball striking, approach, and putting, Fowler comes in second behind Jon Rahm. He’s 17th in ball striking and eighth in approach, and he’s played extremely well this year.
Betting 1 Unit to win 34.5 (to win +3450)
Betting 1 Unit to win 2.6 (finish top 10 +260)
Seppulon Straka to win the St. Jude Championship +6000 (FanDuel); finish in the top 10 +410 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
We won big with Seppulon Straka about a month ago, so hopefully we get the same magic again. Straka is sixth when it comes to our ball striking, approach and putting ratios. He’s been playing so well of late, and he could win with his top-15 ratings in ball striking and approach.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 30 (to win +6000)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 2.05 (finish top 10 +410)
Corey Conners to win the St. Jude Championship +7250 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +450 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners has a great course fit. He’s 26th in ball striking and 13th in approach. He hasn’t done well here, but I’m done looking at course history after last week’s fiasco.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 29 (to win +7250)
Betting 0.4 Units to win 1.8 (finish top 10 +450)
Lucas Glover to win the St. Jude Championship +9500 (FanDuel); finish in the top 10 +650 (FanDuel)
I’m kicking myself for not betting Lucas “Automatic” Glover last week, not including the hedge. I was riding him for a while, but stayed away for once because he had a poor course history. Serves me right for falling into that nonsense trap. Glover is top 20 in ball striking and approach, and he’s been putting better lately.
Betting 0.3 Units to win 27 (to win +9000)
Betting 0.3 Units to win 1.95 (finish top 10 +650)
Parlay: Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler to Finish Top 10 +968 (FanDuel)
These are the top three golfers in my rankings, so I’m going to have a for-fun parlay. I want some action on Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, but their odds to win are so low.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 4.84 (to finish top 10s +968)
Good luck to everyone this weekend! You can see my PGA Rankings here.
PGA Bets for the Wyndham Championship:
We were looking at the wrong stats in the 3M Open, as I didn’t take driving distance enough into account. I’m more confident with the Wyndham Championship configuration, so let’s get to the picks.
Russell Henley to win the Wyndham Championship +2000 (all sportsbooks); finish in the top 10 +230 (DraftKings)
Driving accuracy is very important on this course, and no one on the tour is more accurate than Russell Henley. The weakness in Henley’s game has been putting, but he has been putting better recently. He also has great course history in Greensboro. I’m usually not big on course history, but that matters more here than most courses.
Betting 1 Unit to win 20 (to win +2000)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 1.15 (finish top 10 +230)
Si-Woo Kim to win the Wyndham Championship +2000 (any sportsbook); finish in the top 10 +250 (DraftKings)
Si-Woo Kim is another golfer who has amazing course history at Greensboro. He comes in second place in my rankings, as he’s 10th in driving accuracy and 18th in approach.
Betting 1 Unit to win 20 (to win +2000)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 1.25 (finish top 10 +250)
Alex Smalley to win the Wyndham Championship +4000 (any sportsbook); finish in the top 10 +400 (DraftKings)
Alex Smalley has officially played on this course twice on the tour, but he lives right near it and knows it like the back of his hand. Smalley has been played much better golf lately, with his accuracy and approach showing great improvement. He’s worth a bet this weekend.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 20 (to win +4000)
Betting 0.25 Units to win 1 (finish top 10 +400)
Adam Hadwin to win the Wyndham Championship +5000 (BetMGM); finish in the top 10 +450 (FanDuel)
Adam Hadwin was a big disappointment last weekend, but this is a better course for him. He’s 27th in driving accuracy, 34th in approach, and 32nd in putting, so he should golf extremely well this weekend. Oh, and he finished 10th the last time he played this course.
Betting 0.6 Units to win 30 (to win +5000)
Betting 0.3 Units to win 1.35 (finish top 10 +450)
Brendon Todd to win the Wyndham Championship +5500 (BetMGM); finish in the top 10 +500 (DraftKings)
Brendon Todd doesn’t have amazing course history at the Wyndham, but he finished 10th two years ago. He also fits the course well, ranking ninth in accuracy, 72nd in approach, and 20th in putting.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 22 (to win +5500)
Betting 0.15 Units to win 0.75 (finish top 10 +500)
Andrew Putnam to win the Wyndham Championship +8000 (Bovada, BetMGM); finish in the top 10 +600 (Bovada)
I can’t speak highly of Andrew Putnam’s course history at Greensboro, as he has played this course only twice. However, he profiles as someone who can win on this course despite being 80/1. He’s 38th in driving accuracy, 31st in approach, and 10th in putting, so he looks great as a long shot.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 40 (to win +8000)
Betting 0.25 Units to win 1.5 (finish top 10 +600)
Webb Simpson to win the Wyndham Championship +11000 (FanDuel); finish in the top 10 +850 (DraftKings)
I like betting a long shot each week, and Webb Simpson qualifies for this tournament. There are two reasons to consider betting Simpson. First, he has changed his swing and has performed better as a result recently. Second, his course history here is immaculate. Look at the results from 2021 backward: 7th, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 72nd, 6th, 5th, 11th, 22nd, 1st. He has done so well at the Wyndham that he named his son Wyndham! Knowing that, how can you not bet even a bit on Simpson?
Betting 0.25 Units to win 27.5 (to win +11000)
Betting 0.2 Units to win 1.7 (finish top 10 +850)
Hedges: Lucas Glover (+200), Billy Horschel (+210)
We’re in a good spot to hedge our Russell Henley bet. I’m going to wager 1.5 units on both Lucas “Automatic” Glover and Billy Horschel. It’s a bummer I didn’t bet Glover to begin with, failing to do so because of his poor course history at the Wyndham. Serves me right for looking at course history for the first time!
Betting 1.5 Units to win 3 (to win +200)
Betting 1.5 Units to win 3.15 (to win +210)
Good luck to everyone this weekend! You can see my PGA Rankings here.
PGA Bets for the 3M Open:
I’m glad we’re done with these European courses at the moment. The British Open was another s**t show like the Scottish Open, as Scottie Scheffler barely made the cut. We looked at the wrong attributes for that tournament, so hopefully we hit the right ones at the 3M.
Hideki Matsuyama to win the 3M Open +1800 (Bovada); finish in the top 10 +210 (FanDuel)
Hideki Matsuyama appears to be in good form after dealing with an injury earlier in the season. His approach game is elite, which is very important for this course. He also appears to be putting better of late, so I like him to win out of the top favorites. He’s my top hedge play for this tournament.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 27 (to win +1800)
Betting 1 Units to win 2.1 (finish top 10 +210)
Seppulon Straka to win the 3M Open +2350 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +290 (FanDuel)
We won with Seppulon Straka a few weeks ago. He finished tied for second last week at the British Open, so he’s still hot. He’s my top golfer according to my PGA Rankings because of his amazing approach and putting stats.
Betting 1.5 Unit to win 35.25 (to win +2350)
Betting 1 Unit to win 2.9 (finish top 10 +210)
Emiliano Grillo to win the 3M Open +2500 (Bovada, BetMGM, DraftKings); finish in the top 10 +290 (FanDuel)
Emiliano Grillo is coming off a sixth-place finish at the British Open, and he has a victory a couple of months ago. He’s my fifth-ranked golfer this week, as he’s top 50 in approach and adjusted putting.
Betting 1 Unit to win 25 (to win +2500)
Betting 1 Unit to win 2.6 (finish top 10 +260)
Adam Hadwin to win the 3M Open +3500 (every sportsbook); finish in the top 10 +390 (FanDuel)
I didn’t like Adam Hadwin’s putting at the John Deere Classic, but he may have been mentally exhausted after going to extra holes with Rickie Fowler and Collin Morikawa at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He should bounce back in this great course fit. Hadwin is fourth when combining greens in reg, approach, and putting.
Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500)
Betting 1 Unit to win 3.9 (finish top 10 +390)
Lucas Glover to win the 3M Open +5000 (FanDuel); finish in the top 10 +600 (FanDuel)
Lucas “Automatic” Glover’s odds are all over the place, with Bovada listing him at 35/1, while FanDuel has him at 50/1. I’ve been all over Glover recently, as his putting game has improved ever since switching to a long putter. If this continues, he’ll have a good chance to win because he’s a great fit for everything else this course requires.
(FanDuel allowed me to cash out 0.05 units despite Glover failing to make the cut)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 25 (to win +25000)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 3 (finish top 10 +600)
Nate Lashley to win the 3M Open +13000 (DraftKings); finish in the top 20 +450 (FanDuel, DraftKings)
Nate Lashley is my long shot to win this tournament. He’s somehow second when combining greens in regulation, approach, and putting, and yet he’s 130/1! I don’t get these odds, but I’ll happily bet them.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 32.5 (to win +13000)
Betting 0.4 Units to win 1.8 (finish top 20 +450)
Good luck to everyone this weekend! You can see my PGA Rankings here.
PGA Bets for the British Open:
What a miserable weekend. Lucas Glover led for most of the Barbasol, but choked on Saturday and Sunday. I wanted to hedge with Vincent Norrman, who ended up winning the Barbasol, but I was in Las Vegas, and no sportsbooks there offered live betting because they’re all stuck in the 1990s for some reason. In the Scottish Open, none of our guys did well except for Scottie Scheffler and Max Homa, and the latter just barely missed the top 10. I’m not going heavy this weekend because these European courses are weird.
Scottie Scheffler to win the British Open +805 (Bookmaker); finish in the top five +185 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 -110 (Bookmaker)
Scottie Scheffler continued to dominate in the top 10. As mentioned last week, the last time he finished outside the top 12 was back in October 2022. He’s the best fit for this golf course, as the winner is likely to be someone who dominates in strokes gained and elite iron play. It would be shocking if Scheffler didn’t have another top-five finish. The best number for him is +805 at Bookmaker, but you can juice it up to +1000 at DraftKings, albeit at a $5 cap.
Betting 2 Units to win 16.1 (to win +805)
Betting 0.05 Units to win 0.5 (to win +1000)
Betting 1 Unit to win 1.85 (finish top 5 +185)
Betting 1.1 Units to win 1 (finish top 10 -110)
Cameron Smith to win the British Open +2250 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +210 (DraftKings)
I don’t have strokes gained numbers on Cameron Smith because he’s from the LIV, but he’s a terrific irons player. Also, check out his previous tournament results: first, ninth, ninth, fourth, 12th, and first. He had a ninth and a fourth in the previous two majors. He’s also from England, so he knows the course well.
Betting 1 Unit to win 22.5 (to win +2250)
Betting 1 Unit to win 2.1 (finish top 10 +210)
Tyrrell Hatton to win the British Open +2800 (FanDuel, Caesars); finish in the top 10 +260 (Caesars, DraftKings)
Speaking of golfers who know this course well, Tyrrell Hatton is another Englishman who has been on fire lately. Since May, Hatton has two thirds, a fifth, and a sixth, which he just earned at the Scottish Open. Hatton is third in strokes gained this year, and he’s very solid with his iron play. Hatton has done extremely well in European courses over the years, so that could translate into a victory this weekend.
Betting 1 Unit to win 28 (to win +2800)
Betting 1 Unit to win 2.6 (finish top 10 +260)
Tommy Fleetwood to win the British Open +2950 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +260 (Caesars, DraftKings)
Like Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood is an Englishman who has been hot lately. Since May, he has a second, two fifths, and a sixth, which occurred at the Scottish Open last week. Fleetwood is seventh in strokes gained, and he’s terrific with his iron play.
Betting 1 Unit to win 29.5 (to win +2950)
Betting 1 Unit to win 2.6 (finish top 10 +260)
Chris Kirk to win the British Open +25000 (Bovada); finish in the top 20 +490 (FanDuel)
Here’s my super long shot to win. I think this number is outrageous. Chris Kirk is 24th in strokes gained this year, and he’s an excellent irons player, ranking 14th in around the green and 38th in approach. He doesn’t have a good history in Europe, except for when he finished 19th in the British Open in 2014 – which happened to be at this golf course!
Betting 0.2 Units to win 50 (to win +25000)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 2.45 (finish top 20 +490)
Good luck to everyone this weekend! You can see my PGA Rankings here.
PGA Bets for the Genesis Scottish Open:
Congratulations to those who bet Seppulon Straka along with me at 55/1 odds last week! Straka had a rough Thursday, but was on fire the final three days, especially on Sunday. This week, we have a much tougher field at the Scottish Open, but there are still some great betting opportunities.
Scottie Scheffler to win the Genesis Scottish Open +700 (FanDuel, Bovada, BetMGM); finish in the top 10 -130 (FanDuel)
Scottie Scheffler is the best golfer in the world right now, and I think he’s a great bet to win every tournament, assuming you hedge with a top-10 finish. The last time Scheffler finished outside the top 12 was in October 2022! If Scheffler can put at an average level – he changed his putter recently, which could help – he’ll win this tournament. There’s an odds boost on Scheffler at +950 on DraftKings, but they are being cheapskates with a $5 limit this time.
Betting 1.95 Units to win 13.65 (to win +700)
Betting 0.05 Units to win 0.48 (to win +1900)
Betting 2 Units to win 1.55 (finish top 10 -130)
Patrick Cantlay to win the Genesis Scottish Open +1575 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +160 (FanDuel)
The three metrics I’m considering this week are ball striking, approach, and putting. Thanks to putting, there are two players ahead of Scottie Scheffler in these rankings, and Patrick Cantlay is one of them. Cantlay is No. 2 in this regard. I love that Cantlay has great course history here with a top-four finish last year. I usually don’t care too much about course history, but playing in Europe is a different animal.
Betting 1.5 Unit to win 23.63 (to win +1575)
Betting 1 Unit to win 1.6 (finish top 10 +160)
Rickie Fowler to win the Genesis Scottish Open +2100 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +210 (Caesars, DraftKings)
I’m usually against betting players coming off wins, but Rickie Fowler is a seasoned pro who has two top-four finishes after victories in his career. I love Fowler this week because he’s first in the combination of ball striking, approach, and putting. He also played at the Scottish Open last year, so I like that he has experience playing in these conditions. Fowler is having an amazing year with the changes he has made to his game, so I’ll continue to bet him.
Betting 1 Unit to win 21 (to win +2100)
Betting 1 Unit to win 2.1 (finish top 10 +210)
Xander Schauffele to win the Genesis Scottish Open +1800 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +165 (Caesars, DraftKings)
Xander Schauffele is fourth if you combine ball striking, approach, and putting, so I like getting him at 18/1. Also, if you’re talking course history, there’s no one better than Schauffele because he won this tournament last year! Schauffele has six top-10 finishes in his previous nine events, so he’s in great form as well.
Betting 1.25 Units to win 22.5 (to win +1800)
Betting 1 Unit to win 1.65 (finish top 10 +165)
Wyndham Clark to win the Genesis Scottish Open +4000 (Bovada, BetMGM); finish in the top 10 +360 (FanDuel)
Wyndham Clark delivered a win for us a month ago at the U.S. Open, so here’s to hoping we see more magic from him overseas. Clark is one of the hottest golfers right now, and he projects well for this course. Clark is sixth in ball striking, approach, and putting. He also has nice course history here with a top-16 finish last year. We’re obviously looking for better than top 16, but keep in mind that Clark recently said that he has finally learned to win when something clicked for him.
Betting 0.8 Units to win 32 (to win +4000)
Betting 1 Unit to win 3.6 (finish top 10 +360)
Max Homa to win the Genesis Scottish Open +5150 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +420 (FanDuel)
I shouted, “Max Homa is 51/1 to win!?” when I saw his odds on Bookmaker. Homa is fourth when it comes to ball striking, approach, and putting. Some would say he’s not in great form, but he had eighth- and ninth-place finishes in May. He missed a couple of cuts, but bounced back a bit to finish 21st at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Perhaps a week off will help Homa, who finished 16th at this course last year. I think he’s worth a shot at +5150.
Betting 0.6 Units to win 30.9 (to win +5150)
Betting 1 Units to win 4.2 (finish top 10 +420)
Alex Smalley to win the Genesis Scottish Open +10250 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +600 (FanDuel)
Alex Smalley is my super long shot to win, but I think he has a good chance. He’s coming off a great tournament at the John Deere with a second-place finish. He’s 15th when combining ball striking, approach, and putting. But what sold me the most, aside from his amazing odds at 102/1, is that he finished 10th in the Scottish Open last year. Some of the guys ahead of him in the rankings like Corey Conners, Gary Woodland, Justin Rose and Ben Martin have poor or no course history at the Renaissance Club. Smalley does, and he has two top-10 finishes in his previous three tournaments.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 41 (to win +10250)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 3.5 (finish top 10 +700)
PGA Bets for the Barbasol Championship:
There are two golf tournaments this weekend! The guys who weren’t good enough to qualify for the British Open are staying in America and playing in the Barbasol Championship and then the Barracuda Championship next weekend. I would have gone with the Red Jaguars Championship, but that’s just me.
I like five guys in this tournament:
Lucas Glover to win the Barbasol Championship +2350 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +270 (FanDuel)
We bet on Lucas Glover last week because he switched to a long putter to improve the weakest part of his game. The results spoke for themselves, so perhaps Glover can win in this very weak field. Glover ranks second in ball striking, approach, and putting, which I’m also using for this course (though with different proportions).
Betting 1 Unit to win 23.5 (to win +2350)
Betting 1 Unit to win 2.7 (finish top 10 +270)
Peter Kuest to win the Barbasol Championship +2500 (Bovada, BetMGM); finish in the top 10 +320 (FanDuel, Caesars)
Peter Kuest has burst onto the field with some great performances. The rookie finished fourth at the Rocket Mortgage and 17th last week, and now he’ll be playing in a much easier field. He’s third if you combine ball striking, approach, and putting. He’s worth a shot at 25/1.
Betting 1 Unit to win 25 (to win +2500)
Betting 1 Unit to win 2.9 (finish top 10 +320)
Akshay Bhatia to win the Barbasol Championship +2800 (BetMGM); finish in the top 10 +320 (FanDuel, Caesars)
Akshay Bhatia is actually ranked ahead of Lucas Glover in ball striking, approach, and putting. He’s atop the list. Bhatia finished second at the Mexico Open if you exclude Jon Rham and Tony Finau, and I’m doing so because there’s no one remotely close to that caliber in this field.
Betting 1 Unit to win 23.5 (to win +2350)
Betting 1 Unit to win 3.2 (finish top 10 +320)
Satoshi Kodaira to win the Barbasol Championship +10000 (Bovada, BetMGM); finish in the top 10 +800 (FanDuel, Bovada)
Don’t look at Satoshi Kodaira’s recent finishes because they are ugly. However, this is the Barbasol Championship, where Russell Knox is a top-10 golfer. It’s ugly. What’s not ugly is that Satoshi Kodaira is fourth if you combine ball striking, approach, and putting. For that reason, he’s worth a shot at 100/1.
Betting 0.3 Units to win 30 (to win +10000)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 4 (finish top 10 +800)
Kevin Roy to win the Barbasol Championship +12500 (Bovada, BetMGM); finish in the top 10 +900 (FanDuel)
Kevin Roy is our final pick in this tournament. He’s also a mega long shot at 125/1, but he’s fifth when combining ball striking, approach, and putting. As with Satoshi Kodaira, you’ll want to avoid looking at this year’s results because this is a far weaker field than anything he has played in recently.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 31.25 (to win +12500)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 4.5 (finish top 10 +900)
Good luck to everyone this weekend! You can see my PGA Rankings here.
PGA Bets for the John Deere Classic:
It looked like Rickie Fowler was going to choke away his Sunday lead, but he ended up with two birdies on 18, giving us a nice win at 14/1. Let’s keep it going at the John Deere Classic, which doesn’t have any tier-one or tier-two golfers in the field.
Denny McCarthy to win the John Deere Classic +1600 (Bovada, DraftKings); finish in the top 10 +200 (DraftKings)
I used Rickie Fowler as a hedge for my larger bets last week, and I’m going to do the same with Denny McCarthy, who happens to be the hottest golfer in the field. Driving accuracy, approach, and putting are the key attributes at TPC Deere Run, and McCarthy ranks third if you combine all the stats (you can see my PGA Rankings here.) By the way, you can get an odds boost at DraftKings to make this 19/1, but the cap on that wager is only $20.
Betting 1.3 Units to win 20.8 (to win +1600)
Betting 0.2 Units to win 3.8 (to win +1900)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 1 (finish top 10 +200)
Adam Hadwin to win the John Deere Classic +3100 (Bookmaker); finish in the top 10 +350 (FanDuel)
I mentioned that Denny McCarthy is third if you combine driving accuracy, approach, and putting. So, who’s first? That would be Adam Hadwin, who is coming off a great tournament in Detroit that he nearly won. Hadwin is obviously in great form, and this is the perfect course for him.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 46.5 (to win +3100)
Betting 1 Unit to win 3.5 (finish top 10 +350)
Eric Cole to win the John Deere Classic +3500 (DraftKings); finish in the top 10 +400 (FanDuel)
If you like good karma bets, Eric Cole might be the guy for you. Cole skipped the Rocket Mortgage Classic to play in a local tournament, which he won. He then gave all of his winnings to charity. But this is more than just about karma. Cole has been enjoying an excellent season with second-, fifth-, and sixth-place finishes since February. He also had a 15th at a major (PGA Championship). Cole could dominate this field, especially when considering that he’s 13th in combined driving accuracy, approach, and putting.
Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500)
Betting 1 Unit to win 4 (finish top 10 +400)
Sepp Straka to win the John Deere Classic +5500 (FanDuel, BetMGM); finish in the top 10 +500 (DraftKings)
So, Adam Hadwin is first if you combine driving accuracy, approach, and putting. Denny McCarthy is third. As for second, that would be Seppulon Straka. I love the odds on Straka, who is coming off a great tournament if you exclude what occurred on Saturday. Straka has three top-16 finishes dating back to February, and this could very easily be his fourth.
Betting 0.75 Units to win 41.3 (to win +5500)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 2.5 (finish top 10 +500)
Chez Reavie to win the John Deere Classic +6500 (FanDuel); finish in the top 10 +600 (FanDuel)
Chez Reavie has been hot since the end of March, which is when he finished sixth at the Valero Texas Open, then placed 11th two weekends later at the RBC Heritage. He then finished fourth at the Travelers two weeks ago. Reavie is a great fit for this course, ranking seventh when combining driving accuracy, approach, and putting.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 32.5 (to win +6500)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 3 (finish top 10 +600)
Lucas Glover to win the John Deere Classic +6600 (BetMGM); finish in the top 10 +700 (FanDuel)
There’s been sharp money coming in on Lucas Glover, who was once 100/1 to win this tournament. He’s now down to 66/1, but I still like him at that price. Glover is fifth if you combine driving accuracy, approach, and adjusted putting. I say “adjusted” putting because Glover’s putting numbers are poor this year. However, Steve Elkington said on the Secret Golf Podcast that Glover switched to a long putter for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and that worked brilliantly, as Glover was putting very well to finish fourth in that tournament.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 33 (to win +6600)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 3.5 (finish top 10 +700)
Mark Hubbard to win the John Deere Classic +6600 (BetMGM); finish in the top 10 +600 (FanDuel)
Mark Hubbard is coming off a missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which was a huge disappointment for me because he was the captain in my sole RM-tier Reignmakers lineup. However, Hubbard was looking pretty solid at -5 until the final couple of holes, which ruined both of our weekends. Hubbard should be able to rebound; he has 11th-, sixth-, and ninth-place finishes in a span of two months. Hubbard is 10th if you combine driving accuracy, approach, and putting.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 33 (to win +6600)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 3 (finish top 10 +600)
Good luck to everyone this weekend! Once again, you can see my PGA Rankings here.
PGA Bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic:
I bet Patrick Cantlay live on Sunday – I was on vacation, which is why I didn’t get to post it here – so it was disappointing to see that he couldn’t catch Keegan Bradley. Let’s hope we can get a winner this week.
Rickie Fowler to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +1400 (Bovada, FanDuel)
Rickie Fowler is tied as one of the favorites, but I like him better than Tony Finau and Collin Morikawa. Finau is struggling, while Morikawa has back spasms. Fowler, on the other hand, has been red hot, and he’s made for this course. If you factor in ball striking and putting, two of the most important stats on this course, he ranks at the very top, so I’m going to play him as a hedge against some of my other longer shots.
Betting 1 Unit to win 14
Max Homa to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +2000 (Bovada)
I mentioned that Rickie Fowler is first if you combine ball striking and putting. Max Homa is second. Homa hasn’t done well in the past couple of tournaments, but he’s had some nice finishes earlier in the season, including two top 10s in May. An easier course like this could help him snap out of his mini slump.
Betting 1 Unit to win 20
Brian Harman to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +5000 (Bovada)
Continuing down the chain of ball striking and putting, Brian Harman comes in third in that category. Harman, who finished second last week, said that this is the best he’s ever felt as a golfer, which was great to hear because of how mentally taxing this sport can be. I also liked to hear that Steve Elkington picked Harman as his “one to watch” this week.
Betting 0.75 Units to win 37.5
Sepp Straka to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +5500 (FanDuel)
Seppulon Straka is fifth when you combine ball striking and putting. Dating back to February, Straka has three top-16 finishes, including fifth at the Honda Classic and seventh at the PGA Championship. If Straka can get seventh at a major, he can certainly obtain a victory at a course that fits his strengths very well.
Betting 0.5 Unit to win 27.5 (to win)
Taylor Moore to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +6000 (Bovada)
Like Homa, Taylor Moore is on a bit of a slump after being hot earlier in the year. He has three missed cuts recently, but he previously had a first at the Valspar and a fourth at the Zurich Classic. This easier golf course should help him improve, and it’s nice that he’s 12th in ball striking plus putting.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 30
Justin Suh to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +7000 (Bovada)
Like Straka, Justin has three top-16 finishes since February, which also includes a fifth at the Honda Classic and a sixth at the Players Championship. He was 26th and 27th in the two majors he played, so this easier course should feel like a breeze to him, especially when considering that he’s seventh in ball striking plus putting.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 35
Austin Eckroat to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +5500 (FanDuel)
I’m adding this one late; too late, in fact. I planned to do a show on YouTube, but fell asleep on the couch, as I’m catching up on the no sleep I got on “vacation.” Anyway, I’ve noticed a strong correlation between golfing success and price increases on Reignmakers, and I challenge anyone to find a reasonable Austin Eckroat anywhere on that platform. I already liked Eckroat anyway, as he is 11th in ball striking plus putting.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 27.5
PGA Bets for the Travelers Championship:
It was nice to get the win with Wyndham Clark last week even though I bet it a bit late. I’m not going to count that for my overall stats here because I didn’t post it when I bet it. We took Scottie Scheffler here for a hedge, but he had a disappointing Sunday. Nevertheless…
Scottie Scheffler to win the Travelers Championship +705 (Bookmaker)
I’m playing this as a hedge once again. Scottie Scheffler is the best golfer in the world right now, and his putting improved at the US Open. Scheffler has finished third, third, third, second and fifth in his previous five events. He’s hungry for a win, and he’s going to obliterate the field one of these weekends. I don’t want to miss it when that happens.
Betting 1 Unit to win 7.05
Tommy Fleetwood to win the Travelers Championship +3500 (DraftKings)
Tommy Fleetwood has been hot lately, with four top-five finishes since the middle of March. He has made great improvements to his game, and it really showed on Sunday of the U.S. Open when he had a great Sunday. This is a good course for him as well.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 17.5
Tom Kim to win the Travelers Championship +3500 (BetMGM)
Tom Kim has been great in big tournaments lately. He was eighth at the U.S. Open and 16th at the Masters. This isn’t a major, but it’s an elevated event with lots of big names in the field. What I like most about Tom Kim is that he’s fourth in driving accuracy, which is crucial for this course.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 17.5
Si-Woo Kim to win the Travelers Championship +5000 (BetMGM), to finish in top 10 +410 (FanDuel)
Si-Woo Kim is in great form with second- and fourth-place finishes recently. He’s also seventh in driving accuracy, which, again, is very important at this course. It also must be mentioned that he’s the Pete Dye whisperer. Google how Kim has done on courses designed by Pete Dye if you want to see his great history in that regard. This is my favorite bet from a value perspective.
Betting 1 Unit to win 50 (to win)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 2.05 (top 10)
Russell Henley to win the Travelers Championship +4000 (BetMGM)
I’ve been talking about driving accuracy being important at the Travelers Championship. There is no golfer with better driving accuracy metrics than Russell Henley, who is in fantastic form at the moment. With the exception of the PGA Championship, Henley has finished in the top 20 of every tournament in which he has played since March 9.
Betting 0.75 Units to win 30
PGA Bets for the US Open:
I posted golf bets three years ago because there was nothing else to do gambling-wise during the pandemic. I’ve since gotten more into golf, so I will be listing my golf bets on this page once again.
Scottie Scheffler to win the US Open +462 (Bookmaker)
I’m doing this as a hedge for a Wyndham Clark wager I made live on Thursday evening:
I liked Clark because he’s ninth in driving distance, which matters for this long course, and he’s been in great form recently. I meant to bet him before the tournament, but it slipped my mind. I mentioned him on our show on Wednesday:
In that video, I also mentioned that Scottie Scheffler was my favorite of all the $10K+ guys on DraftKings. He hasn’t won a major this year, unlike Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka, and he’s hungry for a victory. I’ve heard him described as the Terminator on Sundays because he never goes away and always chases down the leader. He’s only three strokes back, and he’s been so close to winning the past four tournaments. I think he’ll catch up to the three guys ahead of him and win the U.S. Open, so I like that he’s a bigger dog than everyone in front of him.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 2.3
2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 23
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