Here's my analysis on the Redskins/Giants game...all of my picks are free at www.blackboxsports.net ... I might post my Denver play later as well, but it's up on the site if you're interested. Good luck to all the gamblohrs in here!
The Giants have put up quite a few points this season, but have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, at least in terms of defenses they’ve played. In fact, the highest ranked defense they’ve played recently was the Patriots (7th), who held them to 26 pts. That said, the Redskins don’t qualify as having a good, or even average defense themselves, as they currently rank 31st in our Power Rankings, with a pitiful power rating of 20 (out of a 100). They can’t stop the run at all, allowing 4.8 YPC this season (t-2nd last), and also have a hard time against the pass, allowing 7.7 YPA this season. They also can’t get to the QB, and are allowing a 109 QBR and a whopping 6.4 YPP (yards per play) over the last 6 weeks….they’re just pitiful. While the Giants probably won’t be able to take advantage on the ground, Eli and company will certainly take advantage aerially.
On the other side, the Redskins do have some hope. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, which will be important in this game as the Redskins try to control the clock with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. If they can keep Cousins in manageable down and distances, I like their chances of putting up a ton of points themselves. The Giants D, despite being ranked 23rd in our Power Rankings, are allowing 6.6 YPP over the last 6 weeks (worse than the Redskins) and, despite JPP playing a lot better than expected off an amputated finger, still struggle to get any pressure on the QB (I’m not buying the Patriots game – Brady has been under duress all season).
This game is shaping up to be a back and forth affair, so I like taking the home team with the free FG. I also like the situational angles here, as the Redskins are coming off a blow-out defeat to the Panthers, while the Giants are coming off a very tight loss to the undefeated Pats, and are also off a bye, which explains why this spread is moving in the direction of the Giants. The whole point of the Model is to cut thru all the noise, public bias, media hype and other crap that can move a line, so I’m not surprised it’s saying the Redskins are undervalued right now. The standard method for recommending units likes the Skins for 2 units (see above in the Statistical Model section), and so does the new method. I’m sticking with 2 units on the Redskins.
LINE MOVEMENT: This line has dropped to 2.5, indicating the professional bettors are all over the Redskins. I still like the skins for 2 units, even at 2.5, but I'm going to hold out and see if 3 pops back up again. We're not risking much by doing this, since the worst case scenario is the line moves down to 2, which isn't a big deal.
OVER-UNDER: I don't normally play over-unders, but for whatever reason I'm trying it this week for a few games. This total doesn't make sense to me - 47? Both teams can put up 30+, and a 28-24 final would actually be on the low side to me. I'm going with 1 unit on the Over.
FINAL BET: This line has dropped to +2..I'm locking this in for 2 units.
INJURY UPDATES: I don't normally post all the injuries, but considering a lot of people are scared to take the Redskins, I decided to give an update. The Giants have 2 key injuries on their Offensive Line - G Justin Pugh and C Weston Richburg (who is having a stellar season). Center is so important, so the latter is really going to hurt.
The Long Beach State 49ers face an absolutely brutal non-conference schedule. If they can survive that stretch, once Big West play begins... in the words of Dr. Dre at the end of California Love, "Long Beach in tha house!"
Experience is at a premium in the 49ers' starting lineup with a senior-laden group returning. Leading that charge is Big West Player and Defensive Player of the Year, point guard Casper Ware. Fellow first team all-conference selection, Larry Anderson will once again join Ware in the backcourt giving them a bigger duo at guard with Greg Plater graduating. Anderson can use his size and driving ability to cause match-up problems for other Big West teams.
T.J. Robinson and Eugene Phelps return to their starting spots in the frontcourt. Robinson averaged a double-double for the second straight season and with 36 boards, will become the school's all-time leader in rebounds. He can be a terror on the glass but has also added the ability to stretch defenses wth his jumper and range out to the three-point line. After transferring in from a junior college, Edis Dervisevic was a key role player a year ago and will likely move into the starting lineup. He adds a physicality in the paint that Robinson lacks.
If there is one concern about Dan Monson's team this season, it is the uncertainty off the bench. The 49ers only went seven deep last season but will need to find some role players this year. Corey Jackson played sparingly last year and figures to be the first guard off the bench, while freshmen Shaquille Hunter and Michael Caffey could work themselves into the mix.
Kyle Richardson saw limited minutes last season and is the only frontcourt reserve who even sniffed meaningful action. Redshirt freshman Nick Shepherd could make an impact this year due to his size. JUCO transfers James Ennis and Kris Gulley will try and crack the rotation on the wing.
With an experienced and talented starting five, Long Beach State is the clear favorite to win the Big West. Unlike last year when they were upset in the title game of the conference tournament, the 49ers need to complete the net-cutting sweep to earn a berth in the Big Dance. If they do, it is never too early to start talking potential Cinderella sleepers? just saying.
Player to Watch: Casper Ware, PG
Besides Robinson becoming the 49ers' all-time rebounding leader, Ware could break some school marks as well, as he ranks in the top ten in points, assists, and steals. The four-year starter makes an impact on both ends of the floor. He is also coming off a summer in which he was named the MVP of the highly competitive summer Drew League, which could help him take his game to the next level and also increase his awareness among NBA teams.
Key Non-Conference Games:
11/16 at Pitt
11/19 at San Diego State
11/28 at Louisville
12/6 at Kansas
12/10 at North Carolina
12/22 vs. Xavier (Diamond Head Classic)
12/23 vs. Clemson/UTEP, (Diamond Head Classic)
12/25 Kansas State/Southern Illinois/Auburn/Hawaii (Diamond Head Classic)