“Quarterbacks are too risky, let’s take the sure thing.”
“Going with a quarterback isn’t the safe pick.”
These are comments frivolously thrown around the NFL Draft community. Spend enough time on an NFL Draft forum, and you’re bound to run into posts containing those words in between reading about how great/awful Tim Tebow is.
It’s only natural. Everyone remembers David Carr’s deer-in-the-headlights look every time he played under center.
Everyone remembers JaMarcus Russell’s hidden Skittles pouch and “do you tink so” interview.
Everyone remembers Joey Harrington’s obsession with caviar and pianos.
Everyone remembers Alex Smith’s fumble-itis and microscopic hands.
Everyone remembers Tim Couch’s barrage of injuries.
Everyone remembers Ryan Leaf’s tirade against a poor sportswriter. So, It’s understandable that no fan wants to see their draft pick become the next guy on that list.
But what if I told you that other positions, deemed “safer” by the NFL Draft community, bust just as much as quarterbacks? Would most people think I was just making stuff up? Absolutely.
Well, that’s why I did some research. With all of the talk going on between Ndamukong Suh, Jimmy Clausen and Sam Bradford being No. 1 overall selections this year, I felt it was important to look at the hit and bust rates of both the quarterback and defensive tackle positions to see if the former was actually the riskier pick.
Below is a chart of all of the quarterbacks and defensive tackles selected in the top 16* of each NFL Draft from 1993** to 2009.
* Why top 16? I wanted to cover the top half of the first round, and anything below that gets distorted. For example, if a No. 20 overall quarterback starts and plays well (but not on a Pro Bowl level) for only 4-5 seasons, is he considered a bust? A top-16 quarterback would be, but a guy who is taken No. 20 isn’t expected to be a perennial Pro Bowler or anything.
** Why 1993? I didn’t want to go beyond 15 years because scouting has really changed since then. But then again, I also wanted to include Dan Wilkinson (the last defensive tackle to be drafted No. 1 overall). I also wanted to add in some quarterback busts like Rick Mirer and Heath Schuler. Overall, I thought going back to 1993 would give us an accurate and large enough sample size to work with.
Quarterback |
Draft No. |
Year |
Hit, OK or Bust |
Comment |
Matthew Stafford |
1 |
2009 |
TBA |
|
JaMarcus Russell |
1 |
2007 |
Bust |
If he eats his way out of the league, perhaps he can do ads for Skittles. |
Alex Smith |
1 |
2006 |
Bust |
He’s playing OK now, but he’s a bust for a No. 1 overall pick. |
Eli Manning |
1 |
2004 |
Hit |
Some will argue how great Eli Manning is, but he’s a top-12 NFL quarterback and a Super Bowl winner. The Giants paid him a ton of money for a reason. |
Carson Palmer |
1 |
2003 |
Hit |
|
David Carr |
1 |
2002 |
Bust |
|
Michael Vick |
1 |
2001 |
Hit |
Was a Pro Bowler; sold tons of tickets; reached NFC Championship; exciting player before drowning dogs. |
Tim Couch |
1 |
1999 |
Bust |
|
Peyton Manning |
1 |
1998 |
Hit |
|
Drew Bledsoe |
1 |
1993 |
Hit |
|
Donovan McNabb |
2 |
1999 |
Hit |
|
Ryan Leaf |
2 |
1998 |
Bust |
|
Rick Mirer |
2 |
1993 |
Bust |
|
Matt Ryan |
3 |
2008 |
Hit |
|
Vince Young |
3 |
2006 |
OK |
Certainly not a bust, but not great or anything. |
Joey Harrington |
3 |
2002 |
Bust |
|
Akili Smith |
3 |
1999 |
Bust |
|
Steve McNair |
3 |
1995 |
Hit |
|
Heath Shuler |
3 |
1994 |
Bust |
|
Philip Rivers |
4 |
2004 |
Hit |
|
Mark Sanchez |
5 |
2009 |
TBA |
Certainly looks like a hit, but still early. |
Kerry Collins |
5 |
1995 |
Hit |
|
Trent Dilfer |
6 |
1994 |
OK |
|
Byron Leftwich |
7 |
2003 |
Bust |
|
Matt Leinart |
10 |
2005 |
Bust |
|
Jay Cutler |
11 |
2006 |
Hit |
One of the most talented QBs in the NFL; had no running game, receivers, offensive line or defense in Chicago. |
Ben Roethlisberger |
11 |
2004 |
Hit |
|
Daunte Culpepper |
11 |
1999 |
Hit |
|
Cade McNown |
12 |
1999 |
Bust |
Defensive Tackle |
Draft No. |
Year |
Hit, OK or Bust |
Comment |
Dan Wilkinson |
1 |
1994 |
Hit |
The last defensive tackle to go No. 1. |
Darrell Russell |
2 |
1997 |
Bust |
Two great years in 1998 and 1999 – then out of the league a couple of seasons later. |
Gerard Warren |
3 |
2001 |
Bust |
|
Dewayne Robertson |
4 |
2003 |
Bust |
|
Glenn Dorsey |
5 |
2008 |
Bust |
Some will say it’s too soon, but I haven’t seen anything out of him in two years. Two career sacks from the guy who was supposed to be the next Warren Sapp. |
Johnathan Sullivan |
6 |
2003 |
Bust |
|
Ryan Sims |
6 |
2002 |
Bust |
|
Richard Seymour |
6 |
2001 |
Hit |
Plays end now, but came into the league as a defensive tackle. |
Corey Simon |
6 |
2000 |
OK |
Had a few dominant years, but then ate himself out of the league. |
Sedrick Ellis |
7 |
2008 |
Hit |
|
Bryant Young |
7 |
1994 |
Hit |
|
Sam Adams |
8 |
1994 |
Hit |
|
B.J. Raji |
9 |
2009 |
TBA |
|
Kevin Williams |
9 |
2003 |
Hit |
|
John Henderson |
9 |
2002 |
Hit |
|
Amobi Okoye |
10 |
2007 |
Bust |
He’s still young, but three years of mediocre production thus far. |
Dan Williams |
11 |
1993 |
Bust |
|
Haloti Ngata |
12 |
2006 |
Hit |
|
Jimmy Kennedy |
12 |
2003 |
Bust |
|
Wendell Bryant |
12 |
2002 |
Bust |
|
Damione Lewis |
12 |
2001 |
Bust |
|
Warren Sapp |
12 |
1995 |
Hit |
|
Adam Carriker |
13 |
2007 |
Bust |
|
Ty Warren |
13 |
2003 |
Hit |
|
Marcus Stroud |
13 |
2001 |
Hit |
|
Brodrick Bunkley |
14 |
2006 |
Hit |
|
Tommie Harris |
14 |
2004 |
Hit |
|
Jason Peter |
14 |
1998 |
Bust |
|
Albert Haynesworth |
15 |
2002 |
Hit |
|
Booger McFarland |
15 |
1999 |
Hit |
|
Ellis Johnson |
15 |
1995 |
OK |
|
Justin Harrell |
16 |
2007 |
Bust |
|
Travis Johnson |
16 |
2005 |
Bust |
My fingers are about to fall off after typing up those two tables in HTML. So, let’s not waste any time and see what we can take from these two long tables:
Quarterbacks:
There were 29 quarterbacks selected in the top 16 of the NFL Draft since 1993…
Hits: 13
Busts: 12
OK: 2
TBA: 2
Defensive Tackles:
There were 33 defensive tackles selected in the top 16 of the NFL Draft since 1993…
Hits: 15
Busts: 15
OK: 2
TBA: 1
Now, let’s look at the hit and bust rates for each position:
Quarterback Hit Rate: 48.2%
Defensive Tackle Hit Rate: 46.9%
Quarterback Bust Rate: 44.4%
Defensive Tackle Bust Rate: 46.9%
I find it very interesting that according to this data, quarterbacks have higher success rates and lower bust rates than defensive tackles, yet defensive tackle is generally perceived to be the safer route.
It’s a small sample size, but the disparity is even larger in the top five. In that area, only one defensive tackle has panned out of five opportunities, whereas five of 10 quarterbacks have been “hits,” and only four of 10 quarterbacks have been busts.
Considering how important the quarterback is in relation to the defensive tackle, if a team is deciding between the two positions, the “risk” factor should not sway them away from taking a signal-caller. In fact, it’s actually riskier to take a defensive tackle.
***
One more thing – I wanted to see how these two positions translated into winning and losing on the football field. I took all of the “hit” players listed in the two tables, and looked up how their initial franchise fared while they were on the roster:
Hit Quarterback Original Team Record: 828-593 (.583)
Hit Quarterback Average Years on Original Team: 6.9
Hit Quarterback Average Playoff Years on Original Team: 3.8
Hit Defensive Tackle Original Team Record: 966-745 (.565)
Hit Defensive Tackle Average Years on Original Team: 6.4
Hit Defensive Tackle Average Playoff Years on Original Team: 3.1
No one should be shocked that teams with hit quarterbacks were more successful than teams with hit defensive tackles. I actually thought there would be more of a disparity until I realized that the numbers are skewed; after all, did the Patriots win three Super Bowls because of Richard Seymour and Ty Warren (two of the hit defensive tackles that affected these numbers), or because of Tom Brady? Brady is the correct answer just in case you have Bucky Brooks Syndrome and inexplicably hate quarterbacks.
At any rate, I’m going to look into the hit and bust rates of the other positions soon. But with all of these facts and numbers in mind, hopefully the notion of taking a quarterback won’t be seen as risky too much longer. In fact, the real risk is passing up on a franchise quarterback.
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