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Tuesday, May 14, 2013



Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels.
Line: Royals +115; Angels -125.

8:10 PM ET (Game 971-972)

I don't understand this line at all. The Royals have the superior hitting, starting pitching and bullpen. The Angels are trash.

I may post another pick later. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.

Prediction: Royals +115 (1 Unit)

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wiz1065 07-03-2011 12:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.11 (total posts: 249)
16     17

Don't get me wrong, conventional WIZdom says no way you bet against the BEST team in BB with the BEST pitcher in the MLB. Also, betting the sox against the WORST team in baseball with BECKETT on the mound is not a bad bet.
I was just saying...

Everyone poo-pooed my counsel THURSDA when the rangers were going for the sweep in HOUSTON.
Houston 7 - Rangers 0
Obi One 07-03-2011 12:23 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.166 (total posts: 94)
16     17

There is one element missing in that stat. What we would need to know for this betting decision is:

Of the amount of times that a road team was in position to sweep a road series (2 or 3 wins in the series already), how many times did they actually do it?

But still, I know it is a difficult thing to do.......
bigri30 07-03-2011 12:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.68 (total posts: 1)
16     16

@wiz

i wonder what stat is for the third game and the team is under. 500.
Kenny 07-03-2011 12:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.151 (total posts: 80)
16     16

Its gonna be a tough day, three studs going for road sweeps in Lee, Beckett, Vogelsong...
wiz1065 07-03-2011 12:13 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.11 (total posts: 249)
16     17

While it is NOT impossible, home teams over the past decade or so get swept 10% of the time.
wiz1065 07-03-2011 12:12 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.11 (total posts: 249)
17     16

Baseball Betting Tip Three: Don
speedy 07-03-2011 12:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.32 (total posts: 7)
16     16

Brazil in soccer..ml 3 units
wiz1065 07-03-2011 12:04 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.11 (total posts: 249)
11     17

I've never prayed harder for RAIN.
Obi One 07-03-2011 12:04 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.166 (total posts: 94)
11     19

@wiz
even though I didn't hear it, many thanks for the shout out :) As you may know, been giving baseball my time for 3 weeks now, and with another 4 units today, I will reach my stated goal of 8 units a week. would be my 3rd positive week in a row. When I just started out, somebody noted to me that road sweeps are difficult to attain. But in the 3 weeks since I've seen it happen 4-5 times, most recently ATL over SEA, while Philly is also trying to do it in Toronto today. My conclusion so far is that road sweeps are not that rare (especially when it's a good team playing). However if it is a weak team (with a losing record) that has won the first 2 or 3 games of a road series, then I would definitely try to pick the home team.

@Everyone
Of the teams I picked I put the 3 that I like best to win in a parlay:
SF ML
ATL OVER
BOS OVER

And since I haven't had a perfect day yet, it's safe to say that 1 maybe 2 picks of mine should be faded :)

Kenny 07-03-2011 12:02 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.151 (total posts: 80)
16     17

@Wiz

If a top tier team has an Ace going against a bottom tier team, in theory, the no brainer pick should be on the top tier team. But as you note, road sweeps are difficult. I think what makes this different from the reds is that these are road favorites.

I like the reds partly because clevelands hitting is cover-your-eyes bad, also (I hate gambling like this) but the law of probability would say that the reds take 1 of 3 at home especially with a pitching advantage and the reds are hitting the road after this game to play St.Louis...
BIG TIME BRO!!! 07-03-2011 11:57 am xxx.xxx.xxx.104 (total posts: 3)
17     19

watching that detroit/sf 1st inning yesterday felt like my ballsack was the speedbag Apolo Creed was hitting in the 1st Rocky movie.....BIG TIME BRO!!!
Santana 07-03-2011 11:54 am xxx.xxx.xxx.194 (total posts: 59)
17     17

flops
Greinke 07-03-2011 11:52 am xxx.xxx.xxx.194 (total posts: 59)
17     19

rebounds
wiz1065 07-03-2011 11:51 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.11 (total posts: 249)
17     17

Big Time Bro...no worries on the Detroit game my man. I made my own decision..I NEVER blame anyone else for a loss. It's all good bro.
wiz1065 07-03-2011 11:50 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.11 (total posts: 249)
13     17

Feedback for Kenny. I REALLY like the logic behind the Reds pick. That being said, I HATE picking teams to sweep on the road. ie: Phillies and Red Sox. Although The Phils have Lee going, who has given up one (1) run in his last four games and has pitched 3 consecutive no run, complete games.
And the Red Sox with Beckett should CRUSH Houston, who s*ck.
I'm just not a fan of road sweeps, which is EXACTLY why YOU like the REDS.






Wednesday, May 8, 2013 (1-0, +$125)



Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros.
Line: Angels -135; Astros +125.

8:10 PM ET (Game 969-970)

Joe Blanton is an absolutely terrible pitcher and should not be favored on the road against anyone. I know the Astros stink, but so do the Angels. They've been overrated for years.

I may post another pick later. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.

Prediction: Astros +125 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$125







Monday, May 6, 2013 (0-1, -$50)



Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox.
Line: Twins +185; Red Sox -200.

7:10 PM ET (Game 961-962)

It's no surprise that the Red Sox were swept in Texas. Their hot start was pretty unrealistic, and they're bound to regress to the norm. Considering they have no available bullpen tonight, the Twins at +185 looks like a decent deal. This line should probably be -170/+160.

I may post another pick later. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.

Prediction: Twins +185 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50





Sunday, May 5, 2013 (1-0, +$125)



Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels.
Line: Orioles +125; Angels -135.

3:35 PM ET (Game 925-926)

Copy-paste action again here: I once again don't understand why the Orioles are underdog. They have the superior hitters and bullpen.

Prediction: Orioles +125 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$125





Saturday, May 4, 2013 (1-0, +$135)



Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels.
Line: Orioles +135; Angels -145.

4:05 PM ET (Game 971-972)

Copy-paste action here: I once again don't understand why the Orioles are underdog. They have the superior hitters and bullpen.

Prediction: Orioles +135 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$135





Friday, May 3, 2013 (0-1, -$120)



Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels.
Line: Orioles +120; Angels -130.

10:05 PM ET (Game 927-928)

I once again don't understand why the Orioles are underdog. They have the superior hitters and bullpen. The starting pitching is about the same tonight, so Baltimore should be favored by about -120.

Prediction: Orioles +120 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$120





Thursday, May 2, 2013 (1-1, +$10)



Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies.
Line: Marlins +195; Phillies -220.

7:05 PM ET (Game 953-954)

The Phillies and Marlins stink, but the latter is hotter, having won three of four. I feel like Philadelphia should be -155 or so, which means there's tons of value with Miami.

I may post another pick later. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.

Prediction: Marlins +195 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100


Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels.
Line: Orioles +110; Angels -120.

7:05 PM ET (Game 953-954)

I don't understand why the Orioles are underdog. They have the better startng pitcher and bullpen, and they're the superior squad overall.

Prediction: Orioles +110 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$110





Wednesday, May 1, 2013 (0-1, -$115)



Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers.
Line: White Sox +105; Rangers -115.

8:05 PM ET (Game 923-924)

The NFL Draft is over, so I'm now ready to lose money betting baseball. The Rangers look like a solid play today, as my projected line for them was -125. Texas has been the hotter team, while Chris Sale has not pitched as well on the road.

Prediction: Rangers -115 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$115






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