2009 NCAA Tournament: Stats, Trends and Tips

The following stats, facts, trends and tips are tools you can use to win your 2009 NCAA Tournament office pools.


2009 NCAA Tournament Picks and Preview:
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2009 NCAA Tournament - The Slop

If a team has trouble scoring, do you really want to be rooting for it if it's down eight with six minutes to go? Here are the 2009 NCAA Tournament teams that scored less than 68 points per game this year.

1. Wisconsin, 64.4
2. American, 64.5
3. Illinois, 65.0
4. Cleveland State, 66.1
5. Minnesota, 66.5
6. Morgan State, 66.5
7. Ohio State, 66.6
8. Akron, 66.9
9. Dayton, 67.0
10. Michigan, 67.2
11. Butler, 67.6
12. Northern Iowa, 67.7

2008 NCAA Tournament - The Slop

If a team has trouble scoring, do you really want to be rooting for it if it's down eight with six minutes to go? Here are the 2008 NCAA Tournament teams that scored less than 68 points per game this year.

1. Coppin State, 59.8 - Lost in play-in game
2. Mississippi Valley State, 62.7 - Lost in first round
3. American, 65.1 - Lost in first round
4. Winthrop, 65.6 - Lost in first round
5. San Diego, 65.6 - Lost in second round
6. Washington State, 67.1 - Lost in Sweet 16
7. Wisconsin, 67.5 - Lost in Sweet 16

And here are the 2007 NCAA Tournament teams that scored less than 68 a game last year and how they fared. Wisconsin* had its stats masked by an easy non-conference schedule.:

1. Miami-Ohio, 59.6 - Lost in first round
2. Southern Illinois, 63.2 - Lost in Sweet 16
3. Holy Cross, 64.2 - Lost in first round
4. Illinois, 64.5 - Lost in first round
5. Wright State, 64.6 - Lost in first round
6. Michigan State, 65.1 - Lost in second round
7. Eastern Kentucky, 65.2 - Lost in first round
8. Washington State, 66.5 - Lost in second round
9. Creighton, 67.2 - Lost in first round
10. Wisconsin* - Lost in second round

2009 NCAA Tournament - Road Woes

Why would anyone ever have a team advancing deep into the tournament when it had trouble winning on the road in the regular season? These squads fall very quickly. Here are the 2008 NCAA Tournament teams that couldn't win on the road this year.

Arizona, 2-9

USC, 2-8

Maryland, 2-6

Michigan, 3-8

Morehead State, 4-12

Wisconsin, 4-7

Texas, 4-6

Minnesota, 4-6

Oklahoma State, 4-6

Ohio State, 4-6

UT-Chattanooga, 5-10

Dayton, 5-6

Utah, 6-7





2008 NCAA Tournament - Road Woes

Why would anyone ever have a team advancing deep into the tournament when it had trouble winning on the road in the regular season? These squads fall very quickly. Here are the 2008 NCAA Tournament teams that couldn't win on the road this year.

Arkansas, 3-7 - Lost in second round

Kentucky, 4-8 (no road wins vs. winning teams except Georgia, 17-16) - Lost in first round

Vanderbilt, 4-6 (no road wins vs. winning teams except Georgia, 17-16) - Lost in first round

Michigan State, 4-6 - Lost in Sweet 16

Miami, 4-6 - Lost in second round

Kansas State, 5-9 - Lost in second round


The following are the 2007 NCAA Tournament teams that couldn't win on the road last year and how they fared:

Michigan State, 3-10 - Lost in second round

Georgia Tech, 3-9 - Lost in first round

Virginia, 4-8 - Lost in second round

Purdue, 5-10 - Lost in second round

Miami-Ohio, 6-12 - Lost in first round

Indiana, 5-9 - Lost in second round





2009 NCAA Tournament - Freshmen Point Guards

Do you really want some acne-ridden kid who had problems finding a prom date just a few months ago ruining your bracket? I think not. Freshmen point guards seldom advance deep into the tournament. The only exception is if the player in question is a once-in-a-decade point guard prospect like Mike Conley and Derrick Rose. Here are the 2009 NCAA Tournament Freshmen Point Guards in this year's Big Dance:

Dee Bost, Mississippi State

Lewis Jackson, Purdue

Shelvin Mack, Butler

Isaiah Thomas, Washington





2008 NCAA Tournament - Freshmen Point Guards

Do you really want some acne-ridden kid who had problems finding a prom date just a few months ago ruining your bracket? I think not. Freshmen point guards seldom advance deep into the tournament. The only exception is if the player in question is a once-in-a-decade point guard prospect like Mike Conley and Derrick Rose. Here are the 2008 NCAA Tournament Freshmen Point Guards in this year's Big Dance:

Jordan Crawford, Indiana - Lost in first round

O.J. Mayo, USC - Lost in first round

Derrick Rose, Memphis - Lost in NCAA Championship



And here are the 2007 NCAA Tournament Freshman Point Guards and how they fared last year:

Ty Lawson, North Carolina - Lost in Elite Eight

Javaris Crittenton, Georgia Tech - Lost in first round

Edgar Sosa, Louisville - Lost in second round

Greivis Vasquez, Maryland - Lost in second round

Tory Jackson, Notre Dame - Lost in first round

Scottie Reynolds, Villanova - Lost in first round

Mike Conley Jr., Ohio State - Lost in 2007 NCAA Championship

D.J. Augustin, Texas - Lost in second round

Stephen Curry, Davidson - Lost in first round

Ramar Smith, Tennessee - Lost in Sweet 16





2009 NCAA Tournament - The "Experts"

The so-called "experts" on ESPN and CBS usually get a lot of things wrong. As you'll see below, they're incorrect more often than not. Also, the players listen to these shows. If someone like Dick Vitale bad-mouths a program, that team will usually respond with a victory. There always seems to be one disrespected school that goes to the Sweet 16. Here are some of the more Controversial Comments made on Selection Sunday:

Seth and Vitale question Arizona; other analysts like them to go to the Sweet 16 (wash).

Seth loves Siena over Ohio State.

Seth says UConn and Memphis "walk" to the regional final.

Seth disses Wisconsin being in the NCAA Tournament.

Seth likes VCU to beat UCLA.

Seth likes Florida State to beat Xavier.

Seth likes Western Kentucky over Illinois.

Seth picks Pittsburgh to win the national championship.

Seth thinks Clemson can knock off Oklahoma.

Anthony likes Butler over LSU.

Hubert picks Clemson to go to the Sweet 16.

Bobby Knight thinks women shouldn't have a say in the NCAA Tournament.







2008 NCAA Tournament - The "Experts"

The so-called "experts" on ESPN and CBS usually get a lot of things wrong. As you'll see below, they're incorrect more often than not. Also, the players listen to these shows. If someone like Dick Vitale bad-mouths a program, that team will usually respond with a victory. There always seems to be one disrespected school that goes to the Sweet 16. Here are some of the more Controversial Comments made on Selection Sunday:


CBS Bold Predictions:

Seth says Notre Dame will go to Sweet 16. - WRONG: Notre Dame lost in Round 2

Seth says No. 4 seed Vanderbilt will lose to Siena in the first round. - RIGHT

Seth says No. 10 Davidson has a great chance to make the Sweet 16. - RIGHT: Davidson advances to Elite Eight

Kellogg says Memphis is going to the Final Four. - RIGHT

Kellogg likes No. 6 Marquette to go deep. - WRONG: Marquette lost in second round

Seth says No. 12 Temple will beat No. 5 Michigan State. - WRONG

Seth says Drake will go to the Sweet 16. - WRONG: Drake lost in first round

Kellogg likes No. 7 West Virginia to go deep. - PUSH: West Virginia advances to Sweet 16




ESPN Bold Predictions:

Dicky V, Digger and Bilas have no respect for Baylor. - RIGHT: Baylor loses straight up and against the spread in first round

Dicky V picks No. 11 Kentucky over No. 6 Marquette. - RIGHT

Dicky V picks No. 14 Georgia over No. 3 Xavier. - WRONG

Dicky V says No. 6 USC will beat No. 3 Wisconsin in the second round. - WRONG: USC lost in first round




Below are some of the more Controversial Comments made on Selection Sunday in 2007:

Gottlieb no respect for Vanderbilt. - WRONG: Vanderbilt advanced to Sweet 16

Digger and Seth call Old Dominion over Butler. - WRONG: Butler beats ODU by 11 and eventually advances to Sweet 16

Bilas calls GT over UNLV. - WRONG: UNLV beats Georgia Tech and eventually advances to Sweet 16

Seth calls Oral Roberts over Washington State. - WRONG: WSU beats Oral Roberts by 16

Dicky V says Duke to 16. - WRONG: Duke loses in first round

Bilas, Dicky V no respect for Xavier. - WRONG: Almost beat Ohio St. in second round (OSU last-second three to force OT)

Digger, Dicky V, Gottlieb no respect for Arkansas. - RIGHT: Arkansas lost in first round

Hubert no respect for Illinois. - RIGHT: Illinois lost in first round








2009 NCAA Tournament - Random Facts

Here are some of the things you should know about the tournament.

Random NCAA Tournament Trends: Thanks to forum member tbod10 for copy-pasting most of the following from Pat Forde's column:

Only one Big East team has made it to the Final Four in the past four tournaments.

Rick Pitino coached teams that have been ranked No. 1 (4 times), have reached at least the regional final each time. (One champ, one final, one Final Four, one regional final).

Duke hasn't beaten a top-four seed since 2001.



First-round NCAA Tournament Trends:

No. 8 seeds are 11-13 vs. No. 9 seeds since 2003.

No. 7 seeds are 17-7 vs. No. 10 seeds since 2003.

No. 6 seeds are 17-7 vs. No. 11 seeds since 2003.

No. 5 seeds are 16-8 vs. No. 12 seeds since 2003 (worse than 7vs10 and 6vs11!)

No. 4 seeds are 19-5 vs. No. 13 seeds since 2003.

No. 3 seeds are 22-2 vs. No. 14 seeds since 2003.

No. 2 seeds have lost to No. 15 seeds just four times in NCAA Tournament history.

No No. 1 seed has ever lost to a No. 16 seed.

Second-round NCAA Tournament Trends:

Of the 28 No. 1 seeds since 2002, 25 have advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 2 seeds since 2002, 16 have advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 3 seeds since 2002, 17 have advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 4 seeds since 2002, 9 have advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 5 seeds since 2002, 13 have advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 6 seeds since 2002, 8 have advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 7 seeds since 2002, 7 have advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 8 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 9 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 10 seeds since 2002, 5 have advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 11 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 12 seeds since 2002, 5 have advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 13 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Sweet 16.

Of the 28 No. 14 (and 15-16) seeds since 2002, 0 have advanced to the Sweet 16.

All four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen 8 times in last 12 years.

Amazingly, No. 6 seeds have beaten No. 3 seeds 57.1 percent of the time since 1996.

Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament Trends:

Of the 28 No. 1 seeds since 2002, 19 have advanced to the Elite Eight.

Of the 28 No. 2 seeds since 2002, 13 have advanced to the Elite Eight.

Of the 28 No. 3 seeds since 2002, 7 have advanced to the Elite Eight.

Of the 28 No. 4 seeds since 2002, 3 have advanced to the Elite Eight.

Of the 28 No. 5 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Elite Eight.

Of the 28 No. 6 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Elite Eight.

Of the 28 No. 7 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Elite Eight.

Of the 28 No. 8 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Elite Eight.

Of the 28 No. 9 seeds since 2002, 0 have advanced to the Elite Eight.

Of the 28 No. 10 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Elite Eight.

Of the 28 No. 11 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Elite Eight.

Of the 28 No. 12 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Elite Eight.

Of the 28 No. 13 seeds (and 14-16) since 2002, 0 have advanced to the Elite Eight.

All four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight just three times since 1996.

Final Four NCAA Tournament Trends:

Of the 28 No. 1 seeds since 2002, 12 have advanced to the Final Four.

Of the 28 No. 2 seeds since 2002, 7 have advanced to the Final Four.

Of the 28 No. 3 seeds since 2002, 4 have advanced to the Final Four.

Of the 28 No. 4 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Final Four.

Of the 28 No. 5 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Final Four.

Only one seed lower than No. 6 (George Mason) has advanced to the Final Four since 2002.

All four No. 1 seeds have never reached the Final Four since 1996.

Only once has no No. 1 seed reached the Final Four (2006) since 1996.

NCAA Championship Trends:

Of the 28 No. 1 seeds since 2002, 7 have advanced to the NCAA Championship.

Of the 28 No. 2 seeds since 2002, 3 have advanced to the NCAA Championship.

Of the 28 No. 3 seeds since 2002, 3 have advanced to the NCAA Championship.

Of the 28 No. 4 seeds since 2002, 0 have advanced to the NCAA Championship.

Of the 28 No. 5 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the NCAA Championship.

No seed No. 6 or lower has advanced to the NCAA Championship since 1996.

A No. 1 seed has appeared in the NCAA Championship 7 out of the last 11 years.



2009 NCAA Tournament Picks and Preview:
Credo | Winning Tips | East | Midwest | South | West | Final Four






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