Walt, first off love the page! I have been following you since 2004. I always wondered where you get your statistics on what team is being bet on. I use covers.com, but it seems the information from you and what they report is often much different. Also, how do you know what the "Sharps betting on? Thanks again!
My thoughts on all of the 2010 NFL Trade Deadline deals.
Titans claim WR Randy Moss off waivers
This is one of the few good fits for Randy Moss. The Titans have a strong coach and a quarterback who can get Moss the ball downfield. More importantly, Moss' presence will force the defense to take the eighth man out of the box, which will really make Chris Johnson dangerous.
The Titans have now cemented themselves as one of the top teams in the NFL.
Chris Johnson is going to have monster game after monster game. Kenny Britt, meanwhile, will benefit with Moss drawing double coverage away from him once he returns from his hamstring injury.
Bills claim DE/OLB Shawne Merriman off waivers
Meh. Shawne Merriman hasn't been the same since the steroid scandal and the subsequent knee injury. If Merriman gets healthy and can revitalize his career, the Bills obviously would have made a great move. More than likely, however, Merriman won't contribute much, making this claim inconsequential.
Eagles acquire RB Jerome Harrison from Browns for RB Mike Bell
The Eagles definitely win this trade, and it's not even close. Jerome Harrison, a great fit for Philadelphia's offense, is far and beyond the more talented of these two running backs. Harrison rushed for 561 yards in the final three games of the 2009 season, but hasn't seen much action this year because he didn't accept an invite to Eric Mangini's sleepover (that, and Peyton Hillis has been awesome.)
Bell, meanwhile, has struggled this year. Outside of Mangina's inexplicable hatred for Harrison, I'm not sure why the Browns made this one-sided trade.
There's barely any fantasy impact here. If you're in a really deep league and can afford to roster handcuffs, pick up Harrison so you can use him if LeSean McCoy gets hurt. As for Bell, he'll likely split touches with James Davis if Hillis can't ever go, so there's no use in adding him.
Patriots acquire WR Deion Branch from Seahawks for 4th-round pick
How is Randy Moss only one round better than Deion Branch? That doesn't make any sense.
I don't like this trade for the Patriots. Branch can't stay healthy and he's not very good anymore. The appealing thing, obviously, is that Branch is familiar with Tom Brady and New England's offense. There's a chance this deal could work out, but I wouldn't bet on it. I just think a fourth-round pick is too much to give up for an old, worn-down receiver.
Seahawk fans have to love this trade. Not only do they get a fourth-round pick; young wideouts Golden Tate and Deon Butler will now get more playing time.
Branch is obviously worth picking up. Unlike Randy Moss in Minnesota, Branch knows the Patriots offense and will contribute right away.
I wouldn't add any of the Seattle wideouts because of a shaky quarterbacking situation, but Tate and Butler are worth monitoring.
Vikings acquire WR Randy Moss from Patriots for 3rd-rounder and 2012 7th-rounder
I admire what the Vikings are doing here. They know their Super Bowl window is closing with Brett Favre turning 41 in a few days. This move tells the fan base that they're going all in. If you cheer for Minnesota, you have to love this.
I'm not a fan, however. Randy Moss, 33, is past the age in which many receivers have declined and fallen off completely (Torry Holt, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, etc.) Moss has just nine catches in four games. The Moss of even 2009 would have been more productive. From what I saw out of Moss this season, he just looks slow. This trade could invigorate him, but I have my doubts.
As for the Patriots, they did a good job salvaging what they could out of the free agent-to-be. With two first-rounders, two second-rounders and two third-rounders, it's clear that this team is rebuilding for a Super Bowl run in 2012 or so, and Moss wouldn't have been part of that equation.
I'd like to say Moss' value will go up with Brett Favre focusing on getting him the ball downfield, but I'm not sure Moss has it anymore. And besides, Favre will have the same issues with Moss that he had with his other receivers in the first three weeks of the season. He's just won't be familiar and comfortable with him.
Visanthe Shiancoe's value goes down because the Vikings have another end zone threat. Try to trade Shiancoe if you can.
As for the Patriots, make sure you pick up Brandon Tate; he'll be a bigger part of the offense with Moss gone. Also, the two impressive rookie tight ends will see even more targets thrown their way.
Seahawks acquire RB Marshawn Lynch from Bills for 4th-rounder and 2012 conditional 6th-rounder
Why, Seattle, why? Marshawn Lynch is a lazy, albeit talented bum who has never lived up to expectations. If he didn't give a crap in Buffalo, why would he start working hard with the Seahawks?
I thought the Packers should have traded for Lynch because they're really close to the Super Bowl and it was worth the risk. The Seahawks, however, aren't winning a championship anytime soon. And personally, I'd rather have Justin Forsett than Lynch as my starting running back.
Lynch obviously will see a spike in production because he'll be the primary ball-carrier. Forsett, on the other hand, can be dropped in all non-PPR formats.
As for the Bills, make sure you add Fred Jackson to your roster. Chan Gailey has forgotten that the front office spent the No. 9 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft on C.J. Spiller because he named Jackson the starter going forward.