Here's my analysis on the Redskins/Giants game...all of my picks are free at www.blackboxsports.net ... I might post my Denver play later as well, but it's up on the site if you're interested. Good luck to all the gamblohrs in here!
The Giants have put up quite a few points this season, but have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, at least in terms of defenses they’ve played. In fact, the highest ranked defense they’ve played recently was the Patriots (7th), who held them to 26 pts. That said, the Redskins don’t qualify as having a good, or even average defense themselves, as they currently rank 31st in our Power Rankings, with a pitiful power rating of 20 (out of a 100). They can’t stop the run at all, allowing 4.8 YPC this season (t-2nd last), and also have a hard time against the pass, allowing 7.7 YPA this season. They also can’t get to the QB, and are allowing a 109 QBR and a whopping 6.4 YPP (yards per play) over the last 6 weeks….they’re just pitiful. While the Giants probably won’t be able to take advantage on the ground, Eli and company will certainly take advantage aerially.
On the other side, the Redskins do have some hope. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, which will be important in this game as the Redskins try to control the clock with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. If they can keep Cousins in manageable down and distances, I like their chances of putting up a ton of points themselves. The Giants D, despite being ranked 23rd in our Power Rankings, are allowing 6.6 YPP over the last 6 weeks (worse than the Redskins) and, despite JPP playing a lot better than expected off an amputated finger, still struggle to get any pressure on the QB (I’m not buying the Patriots game – Brady has been under duress all season).
This game is shaping up to be a back and forth affair, so I like taking the home team with the free FG. I also like the situational angles here, as the Redskins are coming off a blow-out defeat to the Panthers, while the Giants are coming off a very tight loss to the undefeated Pats, and are also off a bye, which explains why this spread is moving in the direction of the Giants. The whole point of the Model is to cut thru all the noise, public bias, media hype and other crap that can move a line, so I’m not surprised it’s saying the Redskins are undervalued right now. The standard method for recommending units likes the Skins for 2 units (see above in the Statistical Model section), and so does the new method. I’m sticking with 2 units on the Redskins.
LINE MOVEMENT: This line has dropped to 2.5, indicating the professional bettors are all over the Redskins. I still like the skins for 2 units, even at 2.5, but I'm going to hold out and see if 3 pops back up again. We're not risking much by doing this, since the worst case scenario is the line moves down to 2, which isn't a big deal.
OVER-UNDER: I don't normally play over-unders, but for whatever reason I'm trying it this week for a few games. This total doesn't make sense to me - 47? Both teams can put up 30+, and a 28-24 final would actually be on the low side to me. I'm going with 1 unit on the Over.
FINAL BET: This line has dropped to +2..I'm locking this in for 2 units.
INJURY UPDATES: I don't normally post all the injuries, but considering a lot of people are scared to take the Redskins, I decided to give an update. The Giants have 2 key injuries on their Offensive Line - G Justin Pugh and C Weston Richburg (who is having a stellar season). Center is so important, so the latter is really going to hurt.
Dre Kirkpatrick Scouting Report By Charlie Campbell
Cover corner who rarely allows separation
Can run with receivers in and out of breaks
Can quickly flip his hips to turn and run
Can play bump-and-run
Can turn and run with receivers on deep routes
Intelligent about when he initiates contact
Ideal height, length
Not a gambler
Used to playing on an island
Should be able to play well in zone
Fabulous contributor against the run
Can struggle with burner receivers
Doesn't intercept a lot of passes
Ball skills aren't dynamic
Summary: Kirkpatrick was a defensive force for the Alabama Crimson Tide over the past few seasons. He was a key cog in one of the best defenses in college football and was extremely effective going against the best of the SEC. Kirkpatrick is a big, physical man corner who is a reliable defender. Alabama was able to put Kirkpatrick in man coverage on an island and trust that he would shut down his receiver. Kirkpatrick is a hard hitter who pushes receivers around and contributes tough run defense on the perimeter.
Kirkpatrick saw his first season of extensive playing time as a sophomore. He broke into the lineup for the defending national champions and recorded a fine debut season in the SEC. In 2010, he had 53 tackles with three interceptions and seven passes broken up. Kirkpatrick did not get tested very much as a junior. He had tight coverage all season and teams rarely threw his direction. As a result, he did not snag an interception in his final collegiate campaign. Kirkpatrick performed very well against LSU in their two meetings, shutting down wide receiver Rueben Randle on both occasions. Randle had two catches for 19 yards in the first game and three receptions for 13 yards in the rematch.
Kirkpatrick did not play well against Florida, as he was beat in man coverage for a 65-yard touchdown by speedy wide out Andre Debose. Debose did the same thing to LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. Kirkpatrick had a strong game against Arkansas, however. He allowed a touchdown but it was a miraculous circus catch while he had tight coverage. Overall, Kirkpatrick was a superb cover corner in 2011, but he was rarely tested by offenses.
Shortly after declaring for the 2012 NFL Draft in January, Kirkpatrick was arrested. However, the charges, for pot possession, were dropped. The marijuana was allegedly owned by a friend who was in the car with him. Having the charges dropped definitely helps Kirkpatrick, but NFL teams will still question his decision making and his off-the-field associations.
Kirkpatrick looks like an NFL man corner who can be expected to match up on big receivers and limit their effectiveness. He has the speed to run with receivers in their routes and ideal size to prevent completions. Kirkpatrick is an excellent red-zone defender who won't be able to be targeted on fade passes. Claiborne is rated ahead of Kirkpatrick, and some slot Stephon Gilmore ahead as well. Still, Kirkpatrick looks very likely to be a top-20 pick on Draft Day.
Player Comparison: Charles Tillman. Kirkpatrick's game is similar to the Bears' Pro Bowl cornerback. They are nearly identical in their measurements, as Tillman checks in at 6-foot-2, 198-pounds. Tillman is a strong zone corner who also is effective in man coverage. Big receivers are stymied by Tillman, and he is a physical defender who is a tough hitter. Kirkpatrick should turn into a reliable difference-maker like Tillman has been for Chicago.
NFL Matches: Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Dallas, Cincinnati, Chicago, Tennessee, Green Bay, New England
There are a number of teams that are considering Kirkpatrick, and he is going on a lot of pre-draft visits. The Buccaneers are interested in him and are bringing him in for a meeting. If they miss out on Claiborne, they may target Kirkpatrick. The Rams and Jaguars both have needs at corner and could consider Kirkpatrick.
The Cowboys signed Brandon Carr in free agency, but some believe they still could target a corner in the first round. Kirkpatrick is great scheme fit in their 3-4 defense. Cincinnati has a big need at corner and it seems that Kirkpatrick is a heavy favorite to be the Bengals' pick at No. 17. In the back end of the top 20, the Bears and Titans would consider him.
If the character concerns push him deep into the first round, the Packers and Patriots could end his fall. Both teams could use a corner, and he is a great scheme fit for their defenses. However, it would be a real surprise if Kirkpatrick got out of the top 20.