Peyton Manning to Broncos Decision

By Walt - @walterfootball
March 20, 2012


If you somehow missed it amid all the coverage on ESPN and tweets on Twitter, Peyton Manning signed with the Broncos. I've posted my Peyton Manning signing grade here, which includes the repercussions for the 49ers, Titans and other teams.

But did Manning make the correct decision? Should he have gone elsewhere, or is Denver the best possible situation for him?

I'm going to take a look at all of the factors, such as supporting cast and coaching, and I'll rank each of the Manning contenders based on what they can provide in each category. The Manning contenders (throughout the whole process) are: Broncos, 49ers, Titans, Cardinals, Dolphins and Redskins.


Supporting Cast:

1. 49ers
2. Cardinals
3. Titans
4. Redskins
5. Broncos
6. Dolphins

The 49ers have the best supporting cast with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Mario Manningham and Randy Moss. Moss is a bum, but he toed the line with Tom Brady, so I imagine he'd do the same with Manning.

I selfishly wanted Manning to sign with the Cardinals so he could hook up with Larry Fitzgerald. As for the Titans, Kenny Britt, Chris Johnson and Jared Cook comprise a pretty good supporting cast. Britt is coming off an ACL tear, however.

The Redskins are next on the list because of Pierre Garcon and a strong running game. The Broncos and Dolphins don't have much to offer in this area. I like Demaryius Thomas, but that's the only skill-position player Denver has of note. Willis McGahee is running on fumes.


Offensive Line:

1. Titans
2. Broncos
3. Redskins
4. 49ers
5. Dolphins
6. Cardinals

The Titans are the clear favorites here because they surrendered just 24 sacks in 2011. They also added Steve Hutchinson to improve the left guard position. Manning has played behind some terrible offensive lines over the years, so it would be scary to imagine how well he'd perform with lots of time to throw.

The Broncos, Redskins and 49ers are all close. They allowed 42, 41 and 44 sacks in the regular season, respectively. I slotted Denver ahead of Washington because the Redskins have two linemen coming off injuries.

The Miami and Arizona fronts are atrocious, ranking in the bottom three in terms of sacks permitted (52, 54, respectively).




Coaching:

1. Cardinals
2. Redskins
3. Broncos
4. 49ers
5. Titans
6. Dolphins

Ken Whisenhunt has recently taken a future Hall of Fame quarterback to the Super Bowl. Mike Shanahan did the same, but a long time ago. It's close, but I'm giving Whisenhunt the edge because of recent history.

The 49ers and Broncos both have strong head coaches who have had postseason success. The Titans and Dolphins, meanwhile, have new, unproven head coaches.


Organizational Stability:

1. Titans
2. Broncos
3. 49ers
4. Cardinals
5. Redskins
6. Dolphins

Tennessee once again gets the nod in this category because Bud Adams promised Manning a "contract for life." I thought Manning would go to Tennessee because of this.

The Broncos are next because of John Elway despite the fact that he completely botched the Tim Tebow situation. The fact remains though that Denver has a strong front office and ownership.

San Francisco and Arizona are next. I trust the Yorks slightly more than the Bidwells. Both, however, are infinitely superior to Daniel Snyder and Stephen Ross. Everyone knows about Snyder, but Ross is a complete joke. He's turned a respectable Miami franchise into a circus. No one wants to play for him and his B-list celebrity friends.




Environment:

1. Cardinals
2. 49ers
3. Titans
4. Broncos
5. Dolphins
6. Redskins

Manning has never been as good outdoors, so I initially thought the Cardinals would be the team to sign him. They were the only suitor with a dome. The other NFC West team is next because they offer good weather, for the most part.

Denver and Tennessee are close in terms of the weather and fan base. I'm giving the latter the slight edge because of the altitude in Denver.

Miami seems like it should be higher on this list, but Manning reportedly hated the circus atmosphere that the city had to offer. Being married and entering his late 30s, Manning doesn't party like LeBron James, so taking his talents to South Beach wasn't as appealing.

The Redskins are last because Manning would have to deal with the media insanity while battling his brother twice per year.


Playoff Path:

1. 49ers
2. Cardinals
3. Broncos
4. Titans
5. Redskins
6. Dolphins

Going to any of the western divisions would offer Manning an easy path into the playoffs. The AFC West is better than the NFC West, and San Francisco has the edge over Arizona because Manning would not have to deal with the 49er defense as a member of that team.

The Titans are next. The Texans are a great team, but the Colts and Jaguars wouldn't pose much of a challenge.

Going through the two eastern divisions would be brutal. Battling Tom Brady twice per year wouldn't be ideal.


Cap Space:
Figures as of March 11, per Pro Football Talk

1. Broncos ($44.7M under)
2. Redskins ($31.1M under)
3. Titans ($28.1M under)
4. 49ers ($21.8M under)
5. Dolphins ($11.8M under)
6. Cardinals ($16.4M over)
   
   

Cap space is important because Manning wants his new team to bring in his entourage, which includes Jeff Saturday, Dallas Clark, and perhaps Joseph Addai and Dwight Freeney.




Recap:
Adding up all of the totals, we get:

1. 49ers - 19
2. Broncos - 20
3. Titans - 20
4. Cardinals - 22
5. Redskins - 27
6. Dolphins - 39

There it is. Manning should be a Niner. Of course, the top three numbers are so close that it understandably was a difficult decision. The 49ers, Broncos and Titans all made lots of sense, so we can agree that Manning made a good choice. At least he was smart enough not to go to Miami.

Leave a comment Name Comment Verification: click on image to refresh it   Mteezy 04-23-2012 02:04 am xxx.xxx.xxx.116 (total posts: 1) 81     53 Yo u wilding you think that the Broncos have a better O-line then the 49ers haha. That must be why Broncos ended the season 8-8 and 49ers was 12-3. Dumbass JMO 03-21-2012 02:45 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.51 (total posts: 1) 15     27 AFC west is better than the NFC west how do you figure that? Everyone always says the NFC is weak but wait until next year SF will run the league Manning or no manning. The defense is no joke remember that.... Mel 03-21-2012 12:35 am xxx.xxx.xxx.128 (total posts: 1) 139     18 Not so fast Walt. One more factor and might be more important than a few of these. Most Freedom to do what Peyton Manning does, In other words, system fit open with his style of play. Harbaugh and Shannahan are SUPER control freaks! 1. Broncos 2. Dolphins 3. Titans 4. Cardinals 5. Redskins 6. 49ers Broncos 21 Titans 23 49ers 25 Cards 26 Skins 32 Fins 41 Schweep 03-20-2012 10:29 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.234 (total posts: 1) 17     17 Brian Xander is a lame-duck GM, and pretty much everyone knows it. He should have been cleared out with McDaniels, but instead he had his wings clipped. He may not have spoke, but he had his hand in many of the Broncos' questionable moves during McDaniel's time in Denver. The less he says, the better. And it sounds like there's a lot of 'Phins Phans who are upset - well, deal with it. Your organization has been, is, and will continue to be a mess. No one in their right mind will go there and expect to contend. Get your owner to quit screwing the team over, and then you'll have a chance. 49ers were never a serious contender, no matter how hard they pushed. It came down to the Titans and the Broncos, and the Titans clearly have an insane owner. Packer Backer Steve (Formerly Steve) 03-20-2012 09:16 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.225 (total posts: 1) 23     27 This was pretty neat - thank you for taking the time. Here is my two cents. I don't know if anyone else has said this, but if someone has please accept my apology for being redundant. I strongly believe, that in addition to money, and the feeling of belonging, that the one thing QB Peyton Manning wanted more than anything else was control. Control of the offense, nearly complete control, up to and including free agents, trades, draft picks and of course offensive packages and play calling. I know what was said at the press conference today. Does anybody really believe that? Manning not being the defacto offensive coordinator or general manager. Anybody notice GM Brain Xanders today at the presser? I sure didn't. Not one word, not a single word from the GM...on the day the Broncos introduce Manning, a lock first ballot Hall of Famer...not a word from the GM! His lack of speaking spoke volumns. First and forefost it means that VP of Football Ops John Elway is really running the show, which everybody already pretty much knew. Secondly, this is the second time that a major organizational move has taken place and nobody really heard from Xanders. Of course I am referring to the QB Jay Cutler trade. The only guy in front of the microphones was former HC Josh McDaniels. All this might mean absolutley nothing, but it is something that I have noticed over the past 48 hours. And I'm not even a Broncos fan. HC John Fox is an exceptional defensive coach but his offenses have always had trouble scoring points. Enter Manning. Sure, OC Mike McCoy and QB Coach Adam Gase will have some input, but at the end of the day, come game day, who do you really think will be calling the plays. McCoy or the Broncos new $96 M QB? I don't even need to think about that one. Please do not take this rant wrong. I completely respect Manning and what he means not just to the Colts, but now the Broncos, and perhaps most importantly to the NFL. He is clearly one of the all time greats and a great ambassador of the game. Bronson 03-20-2012 08:30 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.87 (total posts: 1) 102     537 You realize that the only factors in Manning's decision were, in this order-- 1.) Money 2.) Money 3.) Money sam 03-20-2012 12:12 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.58 (total posts: 1) 19     22 I don't understand why he wouldn't go to San Francisco. They went to the NFC title game, they have a fantastic defense, Davis and Gore are both good. If they could've signed Wayne or another WR and then drafted Stephen Hill at 30, they'd have a bonafided offense and really good defense. 305_PhinPhan 03-20-2012 11:40 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.45 (total posts: 1) 203     268 How about division? No way would Manning come to Miami and have to play Tom Brady twice a year. Look at the other teams: 49ers, Broncos, Titans, and Cardinals. Those teams are in some of the weakest if not the weakest divisions in the NFL. No wonder he "narrowed" it down to those teams. Manning knew he couldn't beat Tom Brady and was SCARRED to go to the AFC East. As far as I'm concerned Manning ran with his tail inbetween his legs, nothing but a coward! Diego from Argentine 03-20-2012 09:24 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.90 (total posts: 1) 325     27 Only Peyton Manning knows exactly why he choose Broncos. But I'm pretty sure of one thing: he's one of the most brilliant American Football minds in history; he's breathes American Football, he has a unique talent to understand all about this game, and if he choose Denver, it`s because he found there things that us, mere mortals, can't see. 3-1-3 03-20-2012 09:05 am xxx.xxx.xxx48.3 (total posts: 1) 41     15 I thought SF was the best option for him as well, but there are two big factors that I didn't see mentioned. 1) The reported desire for Peyton to stay in the AFC and have a Manning vs Manning Super Bowl. 2) Harbaugh's offensive style. He seems to be a fan of the ground and pound, both from his Stanford days, and what he chose to run in SF (partly no doubt due to A. Smith's ability). But I don't know if Harbaugh would have wanted to hand over the keys of his offense to Peyton and let him go crazy with it. Xosder 03-20-2012 05:05 am xxx.xxx.xxx.160 (total posts: 1) 17     15 Not really looking at a few categories deep enough: Coaching should not have Whisenhunt above Harbaugh, but they are a good head to head matchup; SF assistant coaching is superior though. (and to Birdman, the moron who said John Fox is better than Kenny...seriously? He's the Norv Turner of defensive-minded head coaches: awful HC, great coordinator. Plus, he got owned by Whisenhunt in his own stadium durung their SB run and his team was in the toilet before Tebow galvanized them). I'd actually take points away from Shanahan for his nepotism with Kyle. Titans have the easiest playoff path, they get 4 games against 2 of the 5 worst teams in the league and 1-2 games agaist Yates when Schaub gets hurt in the preseason. 49ers should be 4th in environment, for a lot of reasons, but mainly because Candlestick is a dump, and a player who's adjusting to decreased arm strength (even if it comes back 90%) is going to struggle in those winds. This is a very well written piece, actually. 03-20-2012 02:55 am xxx.xxx.xxx.157 (total posts: 1) 47     20 Good job. Tim Tebow 03-20-2012 01:04 am xxx.xxx.xxx.159 (total posts: 1) 13     65 If I told you to suck me off would you? Now what are we going to do my bum buddy Walt? A-Dogg 03-19-2012 11:41 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.212 (total posts: 1) 15     36 Dwight Freeney? How would the Broncos use Freeney? ironduke 03-19-2012 11:33 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.130 (total posts: 1) 11     56 What a joke. Pages: 12 3

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