These are my 2016 NFL Betting Props. I did well with the props over the past couple of years; I was 5-3 for +$305 with the team wagers, and I went 3-1 for +$285 with the player bets in 2014. Last season, I was 6-6, +$240 despite finishing in the red with my regular NFL Picks. I usually post this during the preseason, but I was in Vegas this past weekend. Here's what I'm betting (all numbers are according to the Westgate Sportsbook).
2016 NFL Betting Props: Teams
Arizona Cardinals: Over 9.5 Wins
I usually tend to bet under win totals because injuries can just wreck an over, but this seems too good to pass up. The Cardinals might just be the best team in the NFL. Their win total should be about 11. I love this value despite the -220 price tag.
Betting 2 Units (-220)
Atlanta Falcons: Under 8 Wins
This is one of my top three over-under picks. It almost seems like free money. The Falcons are not a good team. Despite getting super lucky early last season, they finished 8-8. They were 2-7 in their final nine games, which should be a sign of things to come in 2016.
Betting 4 Units (-180)
Cleveland Browns: Under 5 Wins
I like Hue Jackson, but the Browns are arguably the worst team in the NFL. Robert Griffin, their projected starting fumbler, I mean quarterback, has been outplayed by Josh McCown at OTAs. That's horrible!
Betting 4 Units (-160)
Minnesota Vikings: Over 9 Wins
I bet the over on the Vikings last year, and that paid off. I'll do so again. Mike Zimmer gets the most out of his team, which always seems to give 100-percent effort. I trust Minnesota to go 10-6 or better.
Betting 2 Units (-185)
Los Angeles Rams: Under 7.5 Wins
I'm puzzled as to why the Rams' win total is so high. They were 7-9 last year and happened to lose key personnel this offseason, so I think 4-12 is possible. It's also worth noting that playing in a new city - particularly one that doesn't care about professional sports - could hurt the Rams in 2016.
Betting 2 Units (-145)
San Francisco 49ers: Under 5.5 Wins
The 49ers are an automatic under until further notice. The organization is a mess, and the team just keeps getting worse because of horrible ownership and management. It's sad that Jed York has ruined such a great franchise, but we can at least profit off of it.
Betting 4 Units (-115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 6.5 Wins
I've been re-watching the entire 2015 season this summer, and one of the things I discovered was that the Buccaneers had an insane amount of bad luck. They outgained most of their opponents, both in terms of total yards and yards per play, and I think they could win nine or 10 games in 2016.
I don't get the Garrett Sickels pick in the 3rd when your own evaluation of him clearly states that you believe he his a 3-4 OLB in the NFL and a day 3 pick at best. I think Dallas would rather take the risk with Carl Lawson in that spot than give it to a career rotational player at best.