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College Basketball Picks

College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2014-15): 2-4 (-$10)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2013-14): 11-14-1 (-$460)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2012-13): 11-16 (-$1,380)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2011-12): 28-29-1 (-$1,270)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2010-11): 47-42-4 (+$185)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2009-10): 46-40-1 (+$880)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2008-09): 66-53-2 (+$1,680)
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Monday, April 6, 2015

Wisconsin vs. Duke.
Line: Wisconsin by 1.

9:18 PM ET (Game 601-602)

I don't have a great read on this game, so I'm going to limit this selection to one unit. These teams are pretty close. I have Wisconsin better in my personal rankings, but I've been way off on Duke this entire NCAA Tournament. I just trust the Badgers' experience, though Duke definitely does have the superior athletes. I should add that in full disclosure, I would've had Michigan State +6 and Wisconsin +4.5 had I bet both games on Saturday, but I wasn't confident in either.


College Basketball Pick: Wisconsin -1 (1 Unit)

LOADING COMMENTS...





Friday, March 27, 2015 (0-3, -$250)

N.C. State vs. Louisville.
Moneyline: N.C. State +130.

7:35 PM ET (Game 877-878)

I'm actually making three picks tonight, as I like the games today more than I did yesterday. There's some value with N.C. State; this game is nearly a coin flip, despite what the media would have you believe, so there's decent value with N.C. State +130, which is available on Bovada.


College Basketball Pick: N.C. State +130 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50


UCLA vs. Gonzaga.
Moneyline: UCLA +360.

7:15 PM ET (Game 881-882)

Gonzaga is a public team, which would explain why this line is inflated in Gonzaga's favor. The Zags will probably win this game, but UCLA definitely has a shot - and +360 (on 5Dimes) is way too much value to pass up.


College Basketball Pick: UCLA +360 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100


Utah vs. Duke.
Moneyline: Utah +205.

9:45 PM ET (Game 883-884)

I've been watching this line all week. It was +170 early on, but it's now available for +205 on Bovada. I'll take it, as the Utes are just as good - if not better - than Duke. The Utes should've been a No. 2 seed (No. 3 at the very worst) in this tournament, but the corrupt selection committee put them in the five-slot so they could take care of a mid-major that threatened the NCAA's revenue potential.

I may post another pick later. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.


College Basketball Pick: Utah +205 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100









Thursday, March 26, 2015 (0-1, -$110)

Wichita State vs. Notre Dame.
Line: Wichita State by 1.5.

7:15 PM ET (Game 805-806)

I don't like the -130 moneyline, so I'm going to risk Wichita State not winning by one point. I like the Shockers here, as they are the better team despite the awful seeding by the NCAA committee. Gregg Marshall is going to coach circles around Mike Brey.

I may post another pick later. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.


College Basketball Pick: Wichita State -1.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110





Sunday, March 22, 2015 (1-0, +$150)

West Virginia vs. Maryland.
Moneyline: West Virginia +100.

8:40 PM ET (Game 727-728)

The math says that West Virginia +100 (currently available at 5Dimes) is the best value of the day. You only need to hit 50 percent to break even on this number, yet I'd say there's more than a 50-50 chance the Mountaineers take this; Maryland has been overrated by ESPN all year, and it should've lost to Valparaiso in the opening round.

Dayton is another team I'm looking at, but I'm hoping it gets up to +180 (or at least +175).

I may post another pick later. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.


College Basketball Pick: West Virginia +100 (1.5 Units) -- Correct; +$150





Saturday, March 21, 2015 (1-0, +$200)

Utah vs. Georgetown.
Moneyline: Utah -180.

7:45 PM ET (Game 525-526)

I've been discussing math pertaining to college basketball over the past couple of days with my LVH SuperContest partner Matvei, and with the help of some resources, I think we've developed something. Our projected Thursday moneyline picks were winners, and forecasted selections on Friday went 1-1 for a profit (one unit on UC-Irvine +340; 2.5 units on Dayton +140).

This all has to do with win probabilities and a break-even percentage for certain moneyline values. It says to take Utah -180 for two units today. I like the Utes a lot, and I'd say there's more than a 64.2-percent chance they'd win, which is what the break-even percentage for a -180 moneyline is (available on Bovada).

I'm also monitoring Butler, which needs to be at +175 or +180. It's currently +150 (fell a bit from last night), but the game starts at 9:40, so hopefully the line will move in our favor.


College Basketball Pick: Utah -180 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200







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