College Basketball Picks

NCAA Basketball

College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2014-15): 2-4 (-$10)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2013-14): 11-14-1 (-$460)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2012-13): 11-16 (-$1,380)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2011-12): 28-29-1 (-$1,270)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2010-11): 47-42-4 (+$185)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2009-10): 46-40-1 (+$880)
College Basketball Picks (Reg Season 2008-09): 66-53-2 (+$1,680)
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Monday, April 6, 2015

Wisconsin vs. Duke.
Line: Wisconsin by 1.

9:18 PM ET (Game 601-602)

I don't have a great read on this game, so I'm going to limit this selection to one unit. These teams are pretty close. I have Wisconsin better in my personal rankings, but I've been way off on Duke this entire NCAA Tournament. I just trust the Badgers' experience, though Duke definitely does have the superior athletes. I should add that in full disclosure, I would've had Michigan State +6 and Wisconsin +4.5 had I bet both games on Saturday, but I wasn't confident in either.

College Basketball Pick: Wisconsin -1 (1 Unit)


Friday, March 27, 2015 (0-3, -$250)

N.C. State vs. Louisville.
Moneyline: N.C. State +130.

7:35 PM ET (Game 877-878)

I'm actually making three picks tonight, as I like the games today more than I did yesterday. There's some value with N.C. State; this game is nearly a coin flip, despite what the media would have you believe, so there's decent value with N.C. State +130, which is available on Bovada.

College Basketball Pick: N.C. State +130 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50

UCLA vs. Gonzaga.
Moneyline: UCLA +360.

7:15 PM ET (Game 881-882)

Gonzaga is a public team, which would explain why this line is inflated in Gonzaga's favor. The Zags will probably win this game, but UCLA definitely has a shot - and +360 (on 5Dimes) is way too much value to pass up.

College Basketball Pick: UCLA +360 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100

Utah vs. Duke.
Moneyline: Utah +205.

9:45 PM ET (Game 883-884)

I've been watching this line all week. It was +170 early on, but it's now available for +205 on Bovada. I'll take it, as the Utes are just as good - if not better - than Duke. The Utes should've been a No. 2 seed (No. 3 at the very worst) in this tournament, but the corrupt selection committee put them in the five-slot so they could take care of a mid-major that threatened the NCAA's revenue potential.

I may post another pick later. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.

College Basketball Pick: Utah +205 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100

Thursday, March 26, 2015 (0-1, -$110)

Wichita State vs. Notre Dame.
Line: Wichita State by 1.5.

7:15 PM ET (Game 805-806)

I don't like the -130 moneyline, so I'm going to risk Wichita State not winning by one point. I like the Shockers here, as they are the better team despite the awful seeding by the NCAA committee. Gregg Marshall is going to coach circles around Mike Brey.

I may post another pick later. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.

College Basketball Pick: Wichita State -1.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110

Sunday, March 22, 2015 (1-0, +$150)

West Virginia vs. Maryland.
Moneyline: West Virginia +100.

8:40 PM ET (Game 727-728)

The math says that West Virginia +100 (currently available at 5Dimes) is the best value of the day. You only need to hit 50 percent to break even on this number, yet I'd say there's more than a 50-50 chance the Mountaineers take this; Maryland has been overrated by ESPN all year, and it should've lost to Valparaiso in the opening round.

Dayton is another team I'm looking at, but I'm hoping it gets up to +180 (or at least +175).

I may post another pick later. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.

College Basketball Pick: West Virginia +100 (1.5 Units) -- Correct; +$150

Saturday, March 21, 2015 (1-0, +$200)

Utah vs. Georgetown.
Moneyline: Utah -180.

7:45 PM ET (Game 525-526)

I've been discussing math pertaining to college basketball over the past couple of days with my LVH SuperContest partner Matvei, and with the help of some resources, I think we've developed something. Our projected Thursday moneyline picks were winners, and forecasted selections on Friday went 1-1 for a profit (one unit on UC-Irvine +340; 2.5 units on Dayton +140).

This all has to do with win probabilities and a break-even percentage for certain moneyline values. It says to take Utah -180 for two units today. I like the Utes a lot, and I'd say there's more than a 64.2-percent chance they'd win, which is what the break-even percentage for a -180 moneyline is (available on Bovada).

I'm also monitoring Butler, which needs to be at +175 or +180. It's currently +150 (fell a bit from last night), but the game starts at 9:40, so hopefully the line will move in our favor.

College Basketball Pick: Utah -180 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200

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Comments - Viewing Page 1

Listen to all WalterFootball Comments

callahan (Anonymous Poster)
7 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide


I agree. Several calls went against Wisconsin... tip of the nails off Duke went the other way....fouls not called.  I still think the Kentucky game took too much out of Wisconsin.  Game was a coin flip for a reason, the smart play was to stay away. I know better to never make a bet you do not have confidence in.  At least it was a small loss. See you in September.

2    0 Reply
JTM (Anonymous Poster)
8 month(s) 6 day(s) ago - hide
Nice selections Walt old boy. I'm just guessing but I suppose you liked Oklahoma as well for a clean sweep. 
5    7 Reply
Schmidty (Anonymous Poster)
7 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide


considering walt had mich st going to the final 4 he prob liked mich st. nice try tool

1    0 Reply
Walter 1595 Posts (2244 )
7 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide
Man, college basketball sucks now. Teams used to win, but now it's individuals on rent-a-player teams. Players should be forced to stay for 3 years like in football.
2    1 Reply
Schmidty (Anonymous Poster)
7 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide


exactly and i cant believe you didnt mention the biased officiating. congrats to coach k for buying another championship, what a joke

1    0 Reply
callahan (Anonymous Poster)
7 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

I like Wisconsin as well but am very concerned there could be a let down after the huge win over Kentucky. The Badgers celebrated as if they won the National Championship. I felt better about the game versus Kentucky because the Badgers were 4.5 point underdogs and I felt they were the team with the best chance to defeat Kentucky.

0    0 Reply
Top Flight Sports (Anonymous Poster)
8 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide
Visit the FREE PICK section at or call 1-855-TOP-FLYT for a FREE NCAA Hoops PICK tonight!!!
2    2 Reply
JTM (Anonymous Poster)
8 month(s) 6 day(s) ago - hide
Gonna be hard to follow up last nights performance Walt old boy. You would have been the perfect "fade" 
3    5 Reply
callahan (Anonymous Poster)
8 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide
Walt, could you give us the action in Vegas on the college tournament games like you do on pro football?  Especially now that we are in the Sweet 16. Any edge we can get is appreciated.
6    0 Reply
Walter 1595 Posts (2244 )
8 month(s) 6 day(s) ago - hide
@callahan Close to 80% on MichSt and Duke tonight. The other two games are about even
2    0 Reply
callahan (Anonymous Poster)
8 month(s) 6 day(s) ago - hide


Thanks Walt.  I like Mich St giving 2 points but will not make a large bet considering all the $ on them. Keep us updated on the upcoming games in the tournament.

0    0 Reply
dfp (Anonymous Poster)
8 month(s) 6 day(s) ago - hide
Who should have dropped from the 2 or 3 spot to accommodate Utah? The Utes are a great 5 seed and wouldn't be surprised at all of they beat Duke (have it in my bracket), but their resume certainly doesn't say 3 seed.
0    0 Reply
Woohoo! (Anonymous Poster)
8 month(s) 12 day(s) ago - hide
College picks are back!  Good luck Walt.
7    0 Reply


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