Seattle Seahawks (14-3) vs. New England Patriots (14-3)
Line: Seahawks by 4.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Feb. 8, 6:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 21 Analysis: We split our picks, but had a big week because we nailed both quarterbacks going over 650 passing yards at 10/1 odds in the Seahawks-Rams game. We also completed the Matthew Stafford passing prop ladder. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Broncos, 4 units (win): I used this as a hedge for our Seahawks/Rams/Patriots exactas in the Super Bowl, and we were able to get the middle with the Broncos +3.5. That was the best result possible.

Rams, 3 units (loss): The Rams shot themselves in the foot too many times. I’m still trying to figure out why their punt returner tried to field the ball while falling down. That can’t be something he was taught.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 30-53-1 heading into Week 20.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Patriots -3.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

It took 16 weeks, but the public finally won, going 3-2 in Week 16. Hooray! But then they went 1-3 in Week 17 and 1-2 in Week 18. Booo!

Public teams went 2-0 in the wild card round, but then went 0-2 in the divisional round and 0-1 in the conference championship games.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Seahawks -4.5

Everyone is saying how much of a fraud the Patriots are, so Seattle is an easy bet for them.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s an e-mail from a week ago from someone recognizing my 0-6 weekend:



I posted this last week and wrote how this deranged lunatic had to throw politics in there, and yet he failed to correctly identify my politics. This is the sort of person who eats “peanut butter” found in their rear end.

This guy e-mailed me back:



Talk about eighth-grade intellect! “iF yOuR nOt oN mY sIdE tHeN yOuR mAgA!!!” Actually, forget what I said. Eighth grade is too advanced for this imbecile.

And the next response from him:



Call me crazy, but I don’t think Poker Boss has the IQ to agree with me.

Speaking of low IQs, here’s someone saying I don’t have a job because I had the gall to defend porn:



Guys, I had no idea I’ve been unemployed the past 19 years! Wow!

And finally, I reported some news about the Vikings reaching out to the Bengals to trade for Joe Burrow, as you can see here. Some moronic Bengals fans took this to mean something about their team when the story was clearly about the Vikings. Here’s one such example:



Watch how when I prove that Charlie Campbell and I have had the most accurate mock drafts in the world via the link provided, this imbecile transitions to another tactic against me:



I feel like I’m telling this guy that the sun rises in the east, and he’s like “cHeCk yOuRe sOuRcE!” It’s been known for quite some time that Burrow is unhappy with Bengals ownership.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

If you’re looking to bet legally, you can get the best sportsbook promos where you’ll get hundreds of dollars in free wagers if you sign up using the links on this page.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about the three crushes I had in highschool, as a follow up to why I decided to not attend my 25th high school reunion.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, home of the gays and the poop patrol! Tonight, the Seattle Supersonics take on the New England Gaytriots. Guys, I don’t care about this stupid game, especially because the time has finally come! The girlfriend I ordered on the white pages is set to arrive any minute. I’ve never been so excited. Mother said I can’t talk to her because she’ll try to steal my soul, and I won’t be able to eat macaroni and cheese, but time has finally come for me to fly out of my nest. I’m 74 now, so time has finally come for me to spread my wings!

Emmitt: Thanks, Wang. The thing I most excitemented about the super game are the halftime show, which typically occur at the half of the games. The league gonna have a great performanced by none othered than Bugs Bunny. I watch Bugs Bunny ever since I was a little kid and then in the movie Space Jim where Michael Johnson play basketball with Charles Broccoli and Mugsy Booger against the alien, and the guy who winned the game gonna get all the gold metal in the Olympic.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, I know what movie you’re talking about, but Mother said it would be too scary for me to watch. You know what? Maybe the first thing I’ll do with my bride-to-be is watch Space Jim. And maybe we’ll invite New Daddy along. New Daddy, what do you think? Do you want to watch Space Jim with me and my future wife?

Jay Cutler: I’d rather drill my eyeballs out of my sockets.

Kevin Reilly: New Daddy, I know you’re just kidding! We’ll save you a seat if you have some free time from the usual time you spend watching paint dry. What about you, Tolly? Would you like to join us?

Tollefson: Sorry, Kevin, but we have our own movie night plans. My female slaves and I are going to watch a home movie after the game. It’s actually live footage of the female slave who cooked and cleaned the worst this past year. We left her stranded in the woods and will be unleashing a pack of wolves, so we’ll all be tuning in to see if she survives. You know, some of the female slaves cry when they watch these home movies with me, and I find that touching because it shows how much they care that my house is maintained by naked cooks and cleaners.

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, I don’t know what I’m going to do when I see my future wife naked for the first time. Mother says I’ll turn to stone if I see another woman naked except for her when I give her sponge baths, but I’m beginning to think she wasn’t telling the truth. But I just got word that she’ll be arriving any second. In fact, I’m getting word from down below that she’s coming in now! Ah, my only regret is that Charles Davis isn’t here to see this because I’d love to wipe that smirk off his face when he said that she wouldn’t show up after she asked me to fund her money after her king father was overthrown by radicals in his country. That Charles Davis loser called out sick! What a dweeb! Anyway, let’s go down below. Clarissa Thompkins, do you have my future wife with you, and do you also think Charles Davis is a dweeb?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Dweeb. I have breaking news. I saw the future and know that Russell Wilson will throw a game-losing interception at the goal line in the final seconds. I know this because my fortune teller told me so after she saw it in her crystal ball. And yes, Dweeb, your bride-to-be is taking the elevator up right now. Be prepared to receive her in 3… 2… 1… Back to you, Dweeb!

Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, my name is not Dweeb, but I’m oh so excited, and wow, here she is! She got off the elevator, and she is beautiful! Hello, future bride! I’m usually not allowed to talk to women, but I’m spreading my wings and fleeing the nest! Mother can’t control me anymore! But can you please make macaroni and cheese for dinner!?

Kevin’s Future Wife: Hi, Kevin, I can definitely make you macaroni and cheese, Kevin! Or anything else, including spaghetti, Kevin!

Kevin Reilly: I’m afraid that spaghetti irritates my tummy, or at least that’s what Mother said. She said spaghetti is too dangerous for me. But how was your flight? How was your sick mother? Did she buy the medicine with the funds I sent?

Kevin’s Future Wife: Yes, thanks for asking, Kevin! She was able to buy red medicine from the old woman in the cave, Kevin. She also bought the blue medicine from the old woman in the cave, Kevin!

Kevin Reilly: OK, good! I had to refrain from buying a 1-of-1 limited edition Nick Foles bobblehead to send the money to you. So, about you making that mac-and-cheese…

Mina Kimes: I’m sorry to interrupt, but this is an outrage. Kevin, you are a grown man. You said you’re 74. Why don’t you make your own macaroni and cheese? The only man who shouldn’t be making his own macaroni and cheese is Geno Smith, and that’s because he’s a top-one quarterback – much better than Sam Darnold! I don’t even know how the Seahawks are going to compete with Sam Darnold. If they had Geno Smith, they’d be going to the Super Game! But I digress. Kevin, you’re a man, and only men should be making macaroni and cheese. Women do too many important things to make men dinner, like nap for three hours per day. And we also have super-important jobs like NFL analyst, where we come up with gems like telling you clueless peons that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback who is much better than Sam Darnold. With all of this wisdom, how could I possibly have the time to make any man macaroni and cheese!?

Kevin Reilly: Mina, it sounds like you’re not wife material. Especially not like my future wife!

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY THAT MINA KIMES IS NOT WIFE MATERIAL!? SHE IS THE BEST WIFE MATERIAL BECAUSE SHE WILL WORK HER JOB WHERE SHE SAYS BRILLIANT THINGS LIKE GENO SMITH IS A TOP-ONE QUARTERBACK, AND GENO SMITH IS BETTER THAN SAM DARNOLD, AND YOU CAN THROW OVER THE TOP ON QUARTERS COVERAGE. THIS WOMAN IS A GENIUS WHO IS FAR TOO SMART TO MAKE MACARONI AND CHEESE! THIS IS SUCH AN OUTRAGE! I CAN’T BELIEVE IT! I FEEL SO OPPRESSED. IF I WEREN’T SO OPPRESSED, PEOPLE WOULD BE ASKING ME TO MAKE MACARONI AND CHEESE FOR THEM, BUT INSTEAD I NEED TO SHOW MY GIRL POWER BY FLASHING MY CLEAVAGE ONLINE SO SOMEONE WILL DATE ME, AND I ONLY HAVE TO DO THIS BECAUSE MEN OPPRESS WOMEN SO MUCH!

Kevin Reilly: I’m so glad that I don’t have to spend any more time with these bimbos. Future wife, can you see how annoying these female analysts are?

Kevin’s Future Wife: Kevin, we can make a list of all the annoying female analysts in this booth, Kevin. Let’s begin with Sarah Spain, Kevin. You also mentioned Mina Kimes, Kevin. And then there’s Kevin, Kevin. Because he’s an annoying female analyst, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: Yeah! Wait, wha?

Kevin’s Future Wife: Kevin, let’s make a list of all the times you’ve gaffed even worse than Mina Kimes called Geno Smith a top-one quarterback, Kevin. Let’s begin with you calling the Seahawks the “Supersonics,” Kevin. Then you called Maurice Jones-Drew, Maurice Drew-Jones, Kevin. How about not knowing a single thing about any team except for your Philadelphia Eagles, Kevin, and let’s discuss “your” Philadelphia Eagles, Kevin, because they’re not actually your Philadelphia Eagles, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: Wait, why do you sound like Charles Davis? And are you going to make me macaroni and cheese or not?

Tollefson: Uhh, Kevin, I think your wife is actually Charles Davis.

Kevin Reilly: WHAT!?

Charles Davis: That’s right, Kevin, it’s me, Charles Davis, Kevin, let me take off my wig because it’s so itchy, Kevin, and yes, Kevin, I’ve catfished you, Kevin, because you kind of deserved it, Kevin, and while we’re on the subject of catfish, Kevin, let’s talk about other fish in the sea, Kevin, including tuna, Kevin. How about salmon, Kevin? What do you think about cod, Kevin? Let’s transition to trout, Kevin. Give your opinion on flounder, Kevin. Three cheers for sardines, Kevin. Any thoughts on haddock, Kevin? What about mackerel, Kevin? But let’s go back to catfish, Kevin, because you’ve been catfished, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: Wait, so is macaroni and cheese for dinner off the table? I- I- I AM GOING TO DESTROY YOU IF IT’S THE LAST THING I DO, CHARLES DAVIS! BUT FIRST I HAVE TO GO HOME AND SAY SORRY TO MOTHER AND TELL HER I’M NOT FLYING AWAY FROM THE NEST! We’ll be back right after this!



PLAYER PROPS: We’re going to post our Super Bowl LX pick on the Tuesday prior to the game. For now, we’re going to be looking at some player props. Most of our player props will be live bets, but we’ll have some prior to the game, including…

Sam Darnold & Drake Maye Combined Passing Yards: We hit 500+ +102 and 650+ +1000 in the NFC Championsip, and we’ll be playing this again. Drake Maye didn’t throw much in the AFC Championship game because of the wintry blizzard conditions. Matthew Stafford threw all over the Seahawks, so Maye should be able to do the same. Luckily, we don’t have to go as high as 500+ and 650+ this time. Instead, we’re going with:

Sam Darnold & Drake Maye Combined 450+ Passing Yards -119 (1.5 Units) at DraftKings
Sam Darnold & Drake Maye Combined 600+ Passing Yards +830 (1 Unit) at DraftKings

You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

Kenneth Walker Rushing Yards: Kenneth Walker’s rushing yardage total is too high. The Patriots have a stout run defense with Milton Williams healthy and Robert Spillane patrolling the middle of the field. No running back has eclipsed 37 rushing yards against the Patriots in the playoffs thus far. Here’s what we’re going with:

Kenneth Walker under 74.5 rushing yards -114 (1 Unit) at FanDuel

You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards: The Seahawks have surrendered tons of production all season, but we haven’t been able to take advantage in the playoffs yet. We bet Jake Tonges in the second half when he had 59 receiving yards in the opening half alone, but he got hurt right away. Colby Parkinson had 62 receiving yards in the NFC Championship, but the Rams have a million tight ends, so I didn’t know which to bet. Now, we know to bet Hunter Henry. I’ll be looking to ladder Henry in the second half, but for now, we can just bet his raw yardage because that should hit no matter what (barring another injury, of course). Here’s what we’re going with:

Hunter Henry over 36.5 rushing yards -117 (1 Unit) at BetRivers

You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link. NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: All I saw on social media following the Patriots’ win over the Broncos in the AFC Championship was everyone calling them a fraud. Cousin Sal posted a tweet that had a police siren and the words, “Fraud Alert!” This was in response to New England’s meager 10-point output versus Denver’s paper tiger defense.

The Patriots haven’t had great offensive success in their playoff run. Their offense has generated 16, 21, and 10 points in their three games, and Drake Maye has taken five sacks in each contest. The Patriots were so conservative in the AFC Championship that they had Maye throw just one pass in the fourth quarter, albeit in a crazy snowstorm. This was actually smart because it was clear that the Broncos weren’t capable of putting up any points in those elements, but it was still an ugly showing.

Now, to be fair, Maye has battled two elite defenses and one above-average stop unit in harsh elements. The Broncos were a paper-tiger defense, but fierce winds and thick snow made conditions very difficult for Maye, who had a tall task against the Chargers and Texans, who were both ranked in the top four of defensive EPA in the second half of the season. Maye took on extremely tough defenses and is now battle tested. So, that’s the good news. The bad news for Maye is that he’s taking another step up in class and battling the league’s No. 1 EPA defense. The Seahawks just allowed Matthew Stafford to throw all over them, but they have the league’s No. 2 run defense and were able to generate the second-most pressure in the NFL this season. That’s not good for a young quarterback who has taken five sacks in every game and has been prone to fumbling.

And make no mistake, Maye will have to do everything himself. Rhamondre Stevenson will find no running room against Seattle’s stout defense, so it’ll be up to Maye to pick up where Stafford left off. Maye will at least be able to utilize his legs and attack the Seahawks in the one area in which their defense falters, which is their inability to cover tight ends. Jake Tonges had 59 receiving yards in one half in the divisional round, while Colby Parkinson logged 62 receiving yards despite sharing targets with two other tight ends. Hunter Henry is in for a big night.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Another reason why the Patriots aren’t a fraud is because of their defense. They don’t have the top-rated stop unit in the NFL like the Seahawks, but they rank in the top 10, and they’ve been better ever since Milton Williams and Christian Gonzalez returned from injury. Williams was sorely missed down the stretch of the regular season, given that New England’s defense is fundamentally different with him.

The Seahawks have a strong interior offensive line, thanks to Grey Zabel’s presence, so having Williams available is extremely important in this matchup. The Patriots have a stout run defense with Williams, so I wouldn’t expect Kenneth Walker to run all over New England. Walker had some great games against the 49ers and Rams, but both teams are weaker to the run than the Patriots with Williams on the field.

Unless Walker runs better than expected, it’ll be up to Sam Darnold to move the chains. This would have been a death sentence for the team in the past, particularly against an opponent that can get after the quarterback. The Patriots didn’t really do so all that well at the end of the regular season, but Williams’ presence has bolstered the pass rush as well.

Darnold has really struggled against fierce pass rushes earlier in his career, particularly pressure up the middle. However, Darnold has been a new quarterback this year. He finally stopped seeing ghosts against the Rams in the NFC Championship, so he could continue his high level of play against the Patriots. It’s worth noting that Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a tough matchup versus Gonzalez, but the Patriots, like the Seahawks, struggle against tight ends, so perhaps A.J. Barner will enjoy a big performance, which is something we’ve seen a few times this year.

RECAP: You’d think that with every Joe Schmoe calling the Patriots a fraud, and the spread increasing from the advance spread from -3.5 to -4.5, you’d have some sharp movement on the underdog. However, we haven’t seen that yet. This line has remained steady at -4.5. It seems as though the sportsbooks don’t want to move this line up to -5 and beyond because they’re afraid that the pros will come in on the Patriots, but there haven’t been any such wagers placed yet. Perhaps that will come later in the week.

I considered being on the Patriots. We get the slightest bit of line value – I made this spread Seattle -4 – so the Patriots are slightly appealing from that perspective. However, four isn’t even a tier-two key number anymore, so it’s not like we’re getting a six if this line had, say, moved from -5.5 to -6.5. That would mean a lot more because six is a tier-two key number along with seven.

The Patriots are also appealing as an underdog because this is a battle between two defensive coaches. Both teams are in the top 10 of defensive EPA in the second half of the season, with New England improving as a result of Williams being healthy. Lower-scoring games tend to go toward the underdog covering the spread as long as the line is above three, which is obviously the case in this situation.

However, given that my projected line was Seattle -4, the three most likely results, if that spread is correct, is Seattle by three, seven, and six, in that order. I wondered what was more likely to happen: Seattle winning by three, or Seattle winning by seven or six (i.e. above 4.5). And after thinking about it, I came to the conclusion that I believe it’s more likely that the Seahawks will win by more than 4.5.

First of all, the Seahawks, as a whole, are more battle tested. They played in the better conference, and specifically, in the best division. Their strength of schedule, as a result, was .498, whereas New England’s was .391. We were all caught off guard when the Eagles destroyed the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last year. It was clear in that game that Philadelphia was far superior, and in hindsight, it should have been obvious beforehand because the Eagles were from the far better conference. Sure, the AFC had the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens, but all three of those teams developed great records by beating up on dreck from their conference, whereas Philadelphia had to go through a tough gauntlet to obtain the No. 2 seed and reach the Super Bowl. The NFC continued to be the superior conference this season, despite the lackluster NFC South division.

Second, the Patriots managed to cruise through the easiest schedule in the NFL. Their strength of schedule was a measly .391. The Broncos, at .422, were the only other team with a strength of schedule easier than .430. New England even avoided the two best teams in the AFC in the playoffs, dodging the Bills and Jaguars due to its playoff draw and officiating incompetence.

The Patriots aren’t even the second-best team in their conference, and yet they’re expected to keep this game close against the best team from the other, superior conference. That just doesn’t sound like it’ll happen. Even New England’s improved defense is in question. Since getting outscored by the Bills, 35-10, to close out the loss to Buffalo in the second meeting, the Patriots have gone against Tyler Huntley for a half of football, Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, a miserable Chargers offensive line, a Nico Collins-less C.J. Stroud, and Jarrett Stidham in a blizzard. These were not quality results for the defense. I believe in Mike Vrabel to coach his team up in this sort of spot, but his team really isn’t proven.

My pick for this game is Seattle, and it’ll be in the range of 2-3 units. I’m not overly confident in this selection, but I think the Seahawks are the right side and will win by about a touchdown.

MORE PROPS: There’s a triple crown category where you can predict the top passer, receiver, and rusher. There are a couple that stand out, namely Drake Maye/Hunter Henry/Drake Maye. We know the Seahawks are poor against tight ends, while both teams thrive against the run, so Drake Maye could be the leading rusher. This is available at 100/1 at FanDuel, but you can parlay all three results (Maye most passing, Maye most rushing, Henry most receiving) for 110/1. Another one I like is Sam Darnold/Hunter Henry/Drake Maye for 225/1, but you can parlay the three results together for 248/1. I’ll also be playing one that has a much better chance of hitting, which is Drake Maye/Hunter Henry/Kenneth Walker for +1714. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

On Friday’s livestream, we discussed an extreme long shot who has a legitimate chance to score a touchdown. That would be Jack Westover, the Patriots’ third tight end/fullback. He plays half the snaps and runs 6-10 routes per game. The Patriots will have two weeks to prepare for this game, so they’ll plan to target someone unexpected in the end zone. Westover, at 40/1, is priced alongside guys who don’t even play. You can get 40/1 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is still holding steady at 4.5. I think there’s a chance this line will drop to -4 at some point.

Check out this list. Since 2000, here are how the superior quarterbacks have fared in every Super Bowl:

2000 – Kerry Collins over Trent Dilfer: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2001 – Kurt Warner over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2002 – Rich Gannon over Brad Johnson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2003 – Tom Brady over Jake Delhomme: Win SU, Loss ATS
2004 – Tom Brady over Donovan McNabb: Win SU, Loss ATS
2005 – (Ben Roethlisberger in second year and Matt Hasselbeck considered even)
2006 – Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman: Win SU, Win ATS
2007 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2008 – (Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner considered even)
2009 – Peyton Manning over Drew Brees: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2010 – Aaron Rodgers over Ben Roethlisberger: Win SU, Win ATS
2011 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2012 – Colin Kaepernick over Joe Flacco: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2013 – Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2014 – Tom Brady over Russell Wilson: Win SU, Win ATS
2015 – Cam Newton over Peyton Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2016 – (Tom Brady and Matt Ryan considered even)
2017 – Tom Brady over Nick Foles: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2018 – Tom Brady over Jared Goff: Win SU, Win ATS
2019 – Patrick Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo: Win SU, Win ATS
2020 – Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2021 – (Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow considered even)
2022 – Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts: Win SU, Win ATS
2023 – Patrick Mahomes over Brock Purdy: Win SU, Win ATS
2024 – Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts: Loss SU, Loss ATS

In short, the superior quarterbacks are 9-12 straight up and 7-14 against the spread. I hate trends and will never base one of my picks on one, but it goes to show that you can’t base your selection on picking the better quarterback. I believe that to be Drake Maye in this instance.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are only two players of note on the injury report: Harold Landry and Robert Spillane. Both are questionable, but both had a limited practice on Friday, so they should be good to go. Much was made about Nick Emmanwori’s ankle and Drake Maye’s shoulder, but neither has an injury designation.

This line is still -4.5. I’m still waiting on a -4, which could come if the sharps jump on the Patriots. The sharps have not taken a side yet, however.

I’ll be adding some player props later in the day, including some exact score predictions, based on our guests’ projections on the live stream. In the meantime, check out this Super Bowl LX Retrospective my developer put together.

EVEN MORE PROPS: We’re going to do our old trick of betting both defensive touchdowns and parlaying them, but we’re going to toss in special teams as well. The best odds are on DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

I don’t love any MVP bets, but I like Kenneth Walker a bit. The Seahawks love feeding Walker inside the 10-yard line, so if he scores a couple of touchdowns, he could easily win MVP. You can get Walker at +850, but you can bet Walker to win MVP and score an anytime touchdown at FanDuel at +900. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

This one is from Evan: We’re going to bet Sam Darnold over 2.5 rushing attempts. Here are Darnold’s rushing attempts over the past seven games: 3, 0, 6, 3, 3, 4, 3. He failed to reach three just once, and that was in the blowout win over the 49ers. Unless this is another blowout, Darnold should rush three or more times, and remember, a kneel-down counts as a rush. The best number is over 2.5 rushing attempts +112 at FanDuel.

I’m placing small bets (0.1 units) on all the predicted scores from every panelist we’ve had on our show this week. The exception is my predicted score because BetMGM has a 10-percent boost up to $20. BetMGM, by the way, has the best odds for exact scores, and it’s not even close. Here’s what we’re going with:

Me: Seahawks 24, Patriots 17 100/1 BetMGM (0.2 Units)
Nuggets: Patriots 24, Seahawks 20 175/1 BetMGM (0.1 Units)
Butters: Patriots 16, Seahawks 13 200/1 BetMGM (0.1 Units)
Andy: Patriots 27, Seahawks 24 100/1 BetMGM (0.1 Units)
Evan: Patriots 23, Seahawks 20 100/1 BetMGM (0.1 Units)
Kenny: Patriots 27, Seahawks 19 250/1 BetMGM (0.1 Units)
Slew: Seahawks 23 Patriots 20 80/1 BetMGM (0.1 Units)
Quacky: TBA (0.1 Units)

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Robert Spillane and Harold Landry are active, so there are no injuries for either team heading into this game, which is nice to see. What’s not nice to see is that this spread hasn’t moved at all. I thought we might see some movement from the sharps to bring this line down to +4, but that hasn’t been the case. In fact, there hasn’t been any sharp action on this game, so I guess the pro think this line is appropriately priced, or that there’s no real edge for either team. There’s one rogue Seattle -4 out there priced at -117 at Bookmaker, but I’d rather bet the -4.5 -105 available at BetMGM.

Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)
Line: Seahawks by 2.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Jan. 25, 6:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

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This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Seattle, home of a bunch of losers and Starblocks Coffee, which Mother says I cannot drink because it’s too dangerous and will make me way too hyper. Tonight, we have the St. Louis Rams taking on the Seattle Supersonics. Guys, I’m still really pissed that my Philadelphia Eagles got kicked out of the playoffs by dirty officials, the same ones who screwed over the Buffalo Bulls, who are my second-favorite team because they beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl twice, so they are my alternate team when my Philadelphia Eagles are kicked out because of the officiating being dirty!

Emmitt: Thanks, Dirty. I also has a second-favorite team, and they the Dallas Cowboy. I think I play for the Cowboy when I was a running back in the National League of Footballs. They sound like my favorite team which are the Texas Cowboy, which might also be the team I play for when I was running back in the National Conference of Football. I think it is OK to have a second-favorite teams especially if your first-favorite team also your second-favorite team also as well.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, I’m beginning to think that you don’t know what you’re talking about. You’re not the football expert like me and New Daddy, who used to play in the NFL, too. He was a great quarterback but I’m sure he would say that I have surpassed him in football knowledge if the number of Nick Foles bobbleheads in my bedroom are any indication. Would you say I’ve surpassed you in football knowledge, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Surpassed in the what now? I’m trying to order paint on Amazon so I can watch it dry later so I don’t have to hang out with my idiot son-in-law. Wait, who even asked me this question? Meh, don’t answer because I don’t even care.

Kevin Reilly: New Daddy, I’m sure you’re talking about another son-in-law because I’m the best when it comes to football knowledge and I’m the most fun to hang out with especially when we play Monopoly on family night, and I get to start with all the money in the bank.

Tollefson: Kevin, you need a new game to play on family night. When my female slaves and I play a board game on family night, we play Sorry! Except, I have different rules. If I find that one of my female slaves did not clean her specific part of the house, she either says “Sorry!” or ends up paying the price.

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, what is that price? I’m curious if it’s cheaper than what I just sent my girlfriend overseas. She says that she’s going to send me an ATM card, which I can use until she comes to America. I asked if I could buy more Nick Foles bobble heads with this ATM card, and she said yes, so she is a great girlfriend already. Sounds like I found my sold mate!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mate. I have breaking news to report about this game. The Rams are being led by Kurt Warner, and everyone is calling this offense the Greatest Show on Turf. They have a tough matchup against the Seahawks defense, which is being called the Legion of Broom. Back to you, Mate.

Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, first of all, I never said let’s go down to Clarissa Thomas. You just started talking over me, which is very rude. A woman should never talk over a man, unless it’s Mother, and then you have to listen, or you don’t get macaroni and cheese for dinner. Second, there’s no such thing as Greatest Show on Turf. You’re making that up like you make up everything else. If they’re the Greatest Show on Turf, why did they only score 20 points against the Chicago Bulls last week!? Everyone knows the Greatest Show on Turf is my Philadelphia Eagles until the refs cheated!

Mina Kimes: I can’t believe what I’m hearing. You’ve had the greatest NFL analyst in the world on your broadcast for nearly a whole season, and you’ve heard absolute gems from her, like Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback, which is great analysis you’ll never hear anywhere else, and now I hear that you’re saying that a woman should never talk over a man. I’m going to go to the corporate executives and have you removed because this is the worst thing you possibly could have said, even worse than the N-word. Not only can women talk over men; they should be encouraged to do so. Has any other man on this telecast opined that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback in the NFL? No! Did any other man on this show say that you can beat quarters coverage by throwing deep? No! Did any other man on this telecast pick the Texans to beat the Patriots like I did? No! Therefore, as the only female Asian NFL analyst on this show, I will now talk over you!

Kevin Reilly: I don’t-

Mina Kimes: I’m talking over you now!

Kevin Reilly: But-

Mina Kimes: I’m talking over you now!

Kevin Reilly: Nick Fo-

Mina Kimes: Geno Smith is No. 1!

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY THAT GENO SMITH IS NO. 1!? HOW CAN ANY MAN BE NO. 1!? MINNOW KIMES, ARE YOU REALLY A MAN, BECAUSE ONLY A MAN WOULD SAY THAT ANOTHER MAN IS THE BEST QUARTERBACK IN THE NFL!? I WISH I COULD CRITICIZE YOUR CREDENTIALS BUT YOU ARE A FEMALE ASIAN NFL ANALYST, SO YOU ARE IMMUNE FROM CRITICISM, SO I DON’T KNOW WHAT TO DO AND NOW MY HEAD HURTS, REEEEE!!!

Kevin Reilly: What is-

Mina Kimes: I’m talking over you now!

Kevin Reilly: But-

Mina Kimes: I’m talking over you now!

Kevin Reilly: Nick Fo-

Mina Kimes: Geno Smith is No. 1!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re being interrupted by Mina Kimes, Kevin. Let’s talk about common interruptions, Kevin. We begin with digital interruptions, Kevin, like e-mails, calls, and social media alerts, Kevin. There’s also notifications and constant connectivity, Kevin. Let’s move on to workplace interruptions, Kevin. Examples include colleagues stopping by, Kevin, and impromptu meetings, Kevin. And don’t forget loud co-workers, Kevin. Care to share about internal interruptions, Kevin? These include stress, feeling overwhelmed, and strong emotions like anxiety, Kevin. How about environmental, Kevin? There’s background noise and lack of clear boundaries, Kevin. Last but not least, Kevin, don’t forget about social, Kevin, which includes friends, Kevin, which you don’t have, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: I HAVE FRIENDS, CHARLES-

Mina Kimes: I’m talking over you now!

Kevin Reilly: I HATE YOU CHARLES D-

Mina Kimes: I’m talking over you now!

Kevin Reilly: YOU SUCK, MINA K-

Mina Kimes: I suck!?!??! What did I do to deserve this!!??!?!

Kevin Reilly: WHEN MY GIRLFRIEND ARRIVES IN AMERICA IN TWO WEEKS, WE WILL DESTROY YOU AND CHARLES DAVIS! We’ll be back right after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams had the No. 1 offense in the NFL last year, but based upon their performance in Chicago, anyone watching football for the first time this year wouldn’t have believed it. The Rams, after all, scored just 17 points in regulation against a poor Chicago defense that surrendered 42 points to the 49ers a few weeks ago. The Bears had the worst pressure rate in the NFL, yet were able to rattle Stafford with blitzes even though Stafford is usually elite against blitzes. It was a shocking result, to say the least.

Perhaps Stafford will rebound in this game. It could be that he was bothered by the cold and windy conditions, or perhaps his finger wasn’t 100 percent. Either way, he’ll have another week to heal, and he’ll be playing in warmer conditions. Seattle is no tropical paradise, but 40 degrees and light wind will feel like a dome compared to what Stafford experienced in Chicago.

The problem for Stafford is that he’ll be battling a tough Seattle defense that has the No. 2 pressure rate in the NFL. This didn’t bother Stafford in a shootout during a Thursday night affair in Seattle, however. Stafford has a great offensive line in front of him that can keep the Seattle pass rush at bay. Also, the Seahawks are incredibly weak to tight ends, and the Rams utilize four of those.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Rams scored 30 points in the first three quarters of that aforementioned Thursday night affair, the Seahawks posted only 14 points before things really broke their way with a punt return touchdown and a two-point conversion that never should have happened. This wasn’t a surprise because Sam Darnold was having his usual awful game against a team with a great pass rush.

Darnold has an extreme dichotomy when he’s under pressure compared to when he’s kept clean. When Darnold has no pressure in his face, he is able to play like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If you don’t believe me, check the stats: When kept clean this year, Darnold has completed 74.5 percent of his passes on a 9.4 YPA. When under pressure, his completion percentage drops to 52.1, while his YPA plummets to 6.5. We saw how Darnold looked under pressure in the playoffs last year against these very same Rams, who have the very same pass rush. And we saw Darnold throw four interceptions against these very same Rams in the first meeting this year. Darnold had a great comeback in the second battle, but only after the Rams took their foot off the gas while up 30-14.

Additionally, Darnold has a mysterious oblique injury that could prevent him from being 100 percent. This oblique injury didn’t bother Darnold against the 49ers because he needed to complete only 12 passes in the blowout in which he was able to lean on Kenneth Walker, the defense, and special teams. Darnold also had the luxury of battling a 49ers defense with no pass rush. The Rams bring much more heat and will make life difficult for Darnold once again.

RECAP: I picked the Rams in the first matchup against the Seahawks. I bet the Rams in the second matchup against the Seahawks. And I will be on the Rams once more. Los Angeles simply has a huge advantage over Darnold with the pressure that it can bring. Darnold folds like a cheap suit under pressure. I know that he had a ridiculous comeback in the second meeting this year, but those came with fluky circumstances, featuring a punt return touchdown, a botched two-point conversion call by the officials, and the Rams taking their foot off the gas on a short week.

On top of that, we may be getting some good line value if there’s a viable +3 line available. The Rams were +1.5 on the advance line, so it’s curious that they would go to +3. Of course, it would be because of public perception that the Seahawks are an invincible team after they destroyed the 49ers, but San Francisco was an extremely flawed team that had zero pass rush. Still, a 41-point performance may excite bettors, but it really shouldn’t. I’m not a big fan of trends, but it’s not a surprise that teams that score 40-plus points in the playoffs are 12-21 against the spread the following game since 1989. There’s obviously nuance to something like this, but the crux of it is that teams that notch 40 or more points tend to see their lines inflated, which is the case in this game.

Also, a 40-point outing could be an indication that a team played way above their talent level. Andy Iskoe, our weekly guest on the show on Wednesday, says that teams will play way above their talent level three times per year and play well below their talent level three times per year. The Seahawks clearly did the former last week, so they’re likely to regress to the mean. Conversely, the Rams offense performed way below expectations, so I would expect them to have a much better performance. A confluence of the two should allow the Rams to cover this spread, especially if there’s a +3 line available.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Still no +3, though Cassandra in the livestream chat alerted me that there was a +3 -120 at Fanatics, a.k.a. Scamatics. We’ll continue to keep a lookout for this favorable number. One injury of note is that Charles Cross didn’t practice Wednesday. His absence would be a huge deal against the Rams’ great pass rush.

SATURDAY NOTES: Charles Cross missed the first two days of practice, but doesn’t have an injury designation, so he will play. We’re still holding out hope for a viable +3 line, but I don’t see one yet.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re going to bet combined passing yards 500+ and 650+ on DraftKings. These pay +102 and +1000, respectively. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to parlay Matthew Stafford over 259.5 passing yards, Kyren Williams under 13.5 receiving yards, and Tyler Higbee over 15.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $178.75 on DraftKings, which is offering a 30-percent boost. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprising inactives in this game. There’s also been no sharp action on either side. The best line is Rams +2.5 -105 at BetMGM, which has two 10-percent boosts up to $50.

Houston Texans (12-5) at New England Patriots (14-3)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Jan. 18, 3:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Drake Maye won his first playoff game, which is a rarity for any signal-caller. Quarterbacks making their first playoff start were 19-41 heading into last weekend, but Maye overcame the odds, albeit with some turnovers involved. Maye left some points on the table with his multiple give-aways, but came up big in the clutch to find Hunter Henry for a touchdown.

Maye will have his work cut out for him in this matchup. The Texans have an elite defensive line and terrific secondary players behind them. The Steelers couldn’t muster a single point in the second half of the Monday night game, though there are two things New England has that Pittsburgh lacked. The first is a quarterback who can move. Maye can beat any defense with his legs, while Aaron Rodgers is a statue quarterback at this stage of his career. Second, the Patriots have a better offensive line than the Steelers possess. It’s not an elite blocking unit, but Maye will have better protection than Rodgers, if only by default.

Maye won’t be able to count on his rushing attack – the Texans are fourth against the run – but he could make good use out of his tight ends. The Texans are just above average against the position, so Maye should be able to connect with Henry and Austin Hooper.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans scored 30 points Monday night, but NPCs and those just checking box scores believe that C.J. Stroud had an amazing game. I know this because all I saw on X was people saying, “C.J. Stroud has taken the Texans to the second round in all three seasons!” The only manner in which the number three is significant with Stroud is the number of turnovers he committed against the Steelers. Stroud made a couple of big-time throws, but was rather underwhelming overall.

Stroud battled a team with a talented pass rush, but one that also had some major holes in the secondary. This is a far tougher matchup for Stroud because the Patriots have excellent defensive backs to go along with a pass rush that made life extremely difficult for Justin Herbert last week. Obviously, Herbert is not well protected at all, but it’s not like Stroud has terrific blocking in front of him either.

The Texans were able to move the chains despite Stroud’s struggles via Woody Marks’ great runs. The rookie eclipsed 100 rushing yards, but could have trouble doing so this week, given that he won’t be battling Pittsburgh’s 20th-ranked rush defense again.

RECAP: When I initially saw that this line was New England -2.5, I immediately knew that I’d like the host. I have the Patriots a few points better than the Texans, so with home field and the one day of extra rest considered, I made this line New England -4.5. We were getting two points of value, which doesn’t sound overly important until you consider that we were going through the key number of three.

The sharps must have thought the same thing because they bet the Patriots very quickly at -2.5, moving this line to -3. We’re no longer going through three, which is a bummer.

However, the Patriots still seem like a fine play at -3. They have the advantage concerning quarterback play, blocking, and preparation time/rest. The Texans have the better defense, but it’s not like New England has a poor defense. It’s ranked 11th since the midway point of the season, which should be good enough to keep Houston’s offense in check.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s too early for a weather report, but it says that there’s potential snow in the forecast. You’d have to think that would benefit the team from the northeast and not the one from Texas, though I don’t think something like that would preclude the Texans from winning if they were the better team.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nico Collins has been ruled out. I’m going to lock in the Patriots because it looks like this line will move to -3.5. The best line is -3 -114 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link. We’re also going to bet both defenses to score touchdowns, and we’re going to parlay them as well. These bets are done on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Patriots at -2.5 earlier in the week, and they bet them at -3 today, moving the line to -3.5 in most places. You can still get -3 -122 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Chicago Bears (11-6)
Line: Rams by 4. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Jan. 18, 6:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Chicago, where tonight the Chicago Blackhawks take on the, eh, I don’t care. My Philadelphia Eagles were cheated out of a playoff win. Unbelievable! All the refs cheated and colluded against me. I’m going to refuse to analyze these games because my Philadelphia Eagles were supposed to go to the Promised Land!

Emmitt: Thanks, Land. I hear once that if you break a promised, you gonna have seven year of bad luck, so if you go to the Promise Land, and if you breaked your promised, you gonna have seven year of bad luck, which is how many day, you type in the number X in your calculator machine when you first type in seven and then you hit the number X and you type in the other number which seven, so you getted 49 day of bad luck, which a lot of day, but shorter than I thinked that seven year would be.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, I just learned that there’s 365 days per year in my home school class. Mother is lucky that I was even paying attention because I was dreaming about my girlfriend, who told me that her father was a king who was overthrown by radicals in his country, and now she’s looking to visit me so we can get married and have babies together after I send her some funds. I told her we could get married, but babies might be a challenge because I’d have to get Mother’s permission to touch a girl, even if it’s my wife.

Jay Cutler: Now you guys see why I pee on this guy’s pillow.

Kevin Reilly: New Daddy, you said this last week, but I didn’t thank you for peeing on my pillow. I also learned in home school class that boy animals pee to mark their territory, so you’re just telling everyone that you love me when you’re peeing on my pillow.

Tollefson: Kevin, you’re absolutely correct. When I first capture my female slaves, I know that there might be some resistance. Women, after all, are dumb creatures who are not aware that God made them so they can cook and clean naked for men. To help these clueless whores get the message, I urinate on them frequently during the first week when they’re tied up in the cellar to show them who’s boss, and in the end, they end up loving me.

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, I’m going to ask Mother if I can go pee-pee on my soon-to-be wife, but I don’t think she’s going to go for it. Besides, I think I’d have trouble going in front of a woman who isn’t Mother for the first time. Clarissa Thomas, do you think I could practice and prepare by going pee-pee on you?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, You. I have some breaking news to report. The Rams have acquired Matthew Stafford in a trade from the Lions, in exchange for Jared Goff. Back to you, You.

Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, first of all, the Lions are stupid enough to draft Stafford Matthews to the Rams. Second, why did you call me “You?” Don’t you know my name? I’m Kevin Reilly, the No. 1 super fan of my Philadelphia Eagles!

Mina Kimes: Does anyone find this absolutely ridiculous? Kevin, why are you asking Charissa Thompson if she knows your name? Female sports broadcasters are way too smart and intelligent for these questions. Our analysis is too vast, so we can’t be expected to know the names of our co-workers. Also, I think it’s extremely offensive that you asked another woman – especially a female NFL analyst – if you could urinate on her. How dare you? It would be like me asking Geno Smith if I could urinate on him! Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback, so it would have to be someone special doing the urination. And you’re not special enough to urinate on a female sports analyst, especially one as great a Charissa Thompson!

Kevin Reilly: Fine, maybe I’ll ask one of these guys here if I can pee-pee on them for practice.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY THAT YOU’RE GOING TO ASK OTHER MEN IF YOU CAN URINATE ON THEM!? THIS IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF MALE PRIVILEGE! ARE WOMEN TOO INFERIOR FOR YOU TO ASK IF YOU CAN URINATE ON THEM!? WHAT WILL IT TAKE FOR A WOMAN IN THE WORKPLACE TO BE URINATED ON!?

Kevin Reilly: Good grief, this is like a no-win situation!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about no-win situations, Kevin. Let’s discuss different types of no-win situations, Kevin. We can begin with zero-sum games, Kevin. Perhaps the Cornelian dilemma, Kevin. Now we’ll transition to double bind, Kevin. Could you, would you, with Kobayashi Maru, Kevin? Would you, could you, with Morton’s fork, Kevin? What are your thoughts on preparedness paradox, Kevin? Care to share about catch-22, Kevin? Do we dare delve into Vladimir’s choice, Kevin? Let’s debate about winner’s curse, Kevin. We’ll now target two-body problem, Kevin, or maybe the Scorpion and the Frog, Kevin. And last but not least, Kevin, there’s Kevin Reilly, Kevin, because Kevin never wins and is a total loser, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: YOU’LL SEE, CHARLES DAVIS! YOU’LL SEE WHEN I HAVE MY WIFE WHO I PEE-PEED ON AFTER SAVING HER FROM THE REVOLUTIONARIES WHO MURDERED HER SWEET FATHER! We’ll be back right after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams were up 14-0 and 17-7 against the Panthers. They looked like they’d cruise to an easy win. Stafford, however, banged his finger on a helmet and was never the same after that – until the final drive in which he led the team to victory. Stafford underwent X-rays, which came back negative.

Stafford could be close to 100 percent, if not that in this game, thanks to a full week and an extra day of recovery. If so, he won’t have any issues shredding the Bears. In the past three weeks, Chicago has surrendered huge performances to Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, and “No Cookie” Jordan Love. The Bears can’t rush the passer whatsoever, so Stafford will have all the time in the world to locate Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and his million tight ends.

If Stafford isn’t completely healthy, he’ll be able to lean on his running game. The Bears just did a solid job of stuffing Josh Jacobs, but the Packers were dealing with offensive line injuries. Chicago is just 21st versus the rush since the midway point of the season.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: While Stafford started hot and then cooled down because of injuries, Caleb Williams experienced the opposite. The Bears had just six points against the Micah Parsons-less Packers defense through three quarters. Williams came through in the clutch, but his poor start does not bode well for this game.

The Rams have a far better pass rush than the Packers without Parsons. The Bears have a strong offensive line, but Williams will still see some pressure, and that could get him into trouble, especially with Rome Odunze seemingly not 100 percent. Williams will still lean on Colston Loveland, who has a middling matchup.

The Bears will be looking to keep Williams safe from the Rams’ dynamic pass rushers, and they can do that by putting their quarterback in short-yardage situations. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai’s runs will be key in this regard, but Los Angeles is a solid 10th against the run.

RECAP: If I knew Stafford would be 100 percent for this game, I’d bet the Rams heavily. Despite last week’s close call, I still have them as being the best team in the NFL. The Bears, conversely, are a mediocre team that has gotten very lucky with turnovers and late-game situations. They’re 11-6, but they probably should be 8-9 or 9-8. If they happened to have that record, we know the Rams would be favored by much more.

The problem is that we don’t know Stafford’s status. He reportedly has a sprained finger, but is managing it and is fully expected to play in this game. It would be shocking if Stafford sat, but we don’t know if he’ll be 100 percent. As mentioned, an extra day of rest will help, but that may not be enough.

I’m still going to be on the Rams. I’ll pencil them in for three units for now. If we hear glowing reports about Stafford’s finger throughout the week, we could move to five units. Regardless, we’ll be backing the superior team against an overrated Chicago squad.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another predicted cold-weather game, with forecasts calling for 17-degree temperatures. The Rams, however, came closest to beating the Eagles last year, nearly doing so in a blizzard, so I’m not worried about how they’ll handle freezing temperatures.

SATURDAY NOTES: Evan and I had a debate about what the weather would be during Thursday’s live stream:



We’ll have to see what the weather looks like on game day. If it’s going to be like 3 degrees, then I don’t think we can bet the Rams.

PLAYER PROPS: The weather looks just fine, so we’re going to bet the over on the combined quarterback passing yards again. We’re going with 500+ at +115 and 650+ at +900 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, the weather doesn’t look like too much of a concern. It’s not ideal, but the Rams should be able to do well in this game. The sharps disagree, however, betting the Bears at +4. The best line is Rams -3.5 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)
Line: Pick. Total: 46.
Saturday, Jan. 17, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

Week 19 Analysis: We had some great weeks to close out the regular season, but the wild card round of the playoffs was a disaster in terms of picking sides. Luckily, we made out extremely well with our live prop bets. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Rams, 5 units (loss): The Rams led 14-0 and 17-7. They looked like they were going to cruise to an easy victory until Matthew Stafford banged his finger on a helmet. Stafford was poor afterward until the final drive, but the damage had already been done.

Eagles, 8 units (loss): I thought Lane Johnson would play. When Johnson was declared out, the sharps hammered the 49ers. I didn’t feel as confident in the Eagles as I did before, but I still would have bet them heavily; just not at eight units. It goes to show that it’s better to have all the data available before locking in any bets.

Chargers, 3 units (loss): I’ve made so much money betting against quarterbacks making their first playoff starts, but that backfired this weekend. All three covered, albeit because of Stafford’s injured finger and a complete Green Bay meltdown. Drake Maye didn’t play well either, but Justin Herbert was far worse.

Steelers, 3 units (loss): This was 7-6 at halftime and 10-6 in the fourth quarter. The Steelers had a chance to cover before the strip-sack scoop and score, but the officials missed Aaron Rodgers getting struck in the head on what should’ve been a roughing-the-passer penalty. I’m not saying we definitely should have covered this one, but the Steelers should’ve had a chance.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Things looked grim for a while for Josh Allen. He suffered three separate injuries in the victory against the Jaguars. He was 11-of-12 for 110 yards before banging his finger, and it didn’t take very long for him to injure his knee on a scramble. Allen looked a bit worse than usual for a while, but then he put together a great drive in the fourth quarter to win the game, albeit doing so too quickly because taking a knee on first down would have been the smarter approach.

Nevertheless, Allen will move on to the divisional round. He should be much healthier with nearly a week removed from the injuries. He’ll have a tough matchup on paper, as the Broncos are known for having a stellar defense, but that is misleading. I’m not here to say that Denver has a poor defense by any means, but the Broncos ranked “just” 11th in defensive EPA in the second half of the season. The Packers scored 26 points against them before losing Christian Watson and Zach Tom, while the Jaguars lit them up for 34 points. Trevor Lawrence threw all over the Broncos, who couldn’t pressure him at all. Lawrence is typically well protected, but so is Allen. And like Lawrence, Allen will be able to utilize his legs to pick up some first downs.

Allen will make good use of his tight ends. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox in Box have been very productive over the second half of the season, and that should continue to be the case against a Denver defense that was just 17th against tight ends. The Broncos have some liabilities in the secondary as well – outside of Patrick Surtain II, of course – so Allen will also be able to attack those areas.

DENVER OFFENSE: Allen is the best quarterback remaining in the playoffs. On the other end of the spectrum, there’s Bo Nix. While Nix has had some great moments in the clutch this year, he’s mostly disappointed otherwise. He’s had far too many games in which he’s displayed horrible mechanics.

Nix has struggled against the Raiders and the 22nd-ranked Chiefs defense. Now, he takes on the Bills, who are terrific against the pass. They have a strong pass rush and an excellent secondary to keep Nix’s receivers from doing too much damage.

The weakness of the Bills, of course, is the run defense. They’ve been trampled by many teams this season, but if there’s one team remaining in the playoffs that can’t take advantage of that, it’s probably Denver. The Broncos are 20th in rush offense EPA. R.J. Harvey is explosive, but dances behind the line of scrimmage too much. He can break a long gain, but takes far too many losses or minimal gains as a result.

RECAP: This spread isn’t even close to what I have calculated. It easily has the greatest disparity between my number and the actual line. The spread is just pick ’em, and yet my line has the Bills favored by 5.5.

If this seems outrageous, you may not have been monitoring the Broncos very closely this year. They’ve done nothing but beat bad or mediocre teams in close games. They beat the Raiders 10-7, the Jets 13-11, the Titans 20-12, the Marcus Mariota-led Redskins 27-26, the Giants 33-32, the Chris Oladokun-led Chiefs 20-13, and the backup Chargers 19-3. If the Broncos had one or two close calls against these teams, that’d be one thing, but this was every week with the Broncos. Their only two convincing victories came against the Jake Browning-led Bengals, which was close for a while, and the Cowboys before they acquired Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson.

Against the top-tier teams, the Broncos struggled to maintain a winning record. They were 3-2 against Groups A and B, which includes a home blowout loss to the Jaguars. They beat the Packers, but only after Watson, Tom, and Micah Parsons got injured. They beat the Eagles, but only after Philadelphia fell asleep while being up 17-3 in the fourth quarter. They beat the Chiefs, 22-19, but that Kansas City team was on the verge of collapse. The Cowboys beat the Chiefs by just as many points.

The Broncos are the most overrated team in the playoffs. Nix has been horrible at times, the running game is subpar, and the defense isn’t even ranked in the top 10. The Bills, conversely, have the superior quarterback and pass defense. I have them 6-7 points better than the Broncos on a neutral field, so this pick ’em line is an absolute gift. This is my January NFL Pick of the Month.

Our Week 20 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something noteworthy to Josh Allen’s practice regimen was that he was limited on Tuesday and then full on Wednesday. He was full every day last week, so this could be an indication that he’s not 100 percent. That might explain why sharp money has come in on Denver despite the public backing Buffalo. I may have to lay off this being a Pick of the Month, though we already bet the Bills for five units at PK -110, which isn’t a good number anymore because Denver is favored by one.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ed Oliver has been actived. It’s unclear how healthy he’ll be, but his presence can’t hurt in this game. I still love the Bills despite Josh Allen’s limited designation on Tuesday.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re going to play the combined passing yards of Josh Allen and Bo Nix. DraftKings has 425+ at -117 and 600+ at +1440. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ty Johnson is inactive, but that’s really the only noteworthy thing on the list. The sharps are on the Broncos, but I still love Buffalo. The best line is Bills +1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)
Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 45.
Saturday, Jan. 17, 8:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 28-53-1 heading into Week 18.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

49ers +3

Bears +1.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

It took 16 weeks, but the public finally won, going 3-2 in Week 16. Hooray! But then they went 1-3 in Week 17 and 1-2 in Week 18. Booo!

The playoffs have been good to the public so far. The public teams went 2-0 in the wild card round. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers +7.5

Bears +4

It’s interesting that the public is betting two underdogs.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s an exchange I had with someone who posted negatively on one of our completed ladders from the weekend:



I’ve gotten hate on occasion on winning plays. It’s rare, but it’s happened before. Here’s the rest of this exchange:



This person has a condition that the medical community refers to as mental retardation.

This next person is not mentally retarded, but he’s close:



The good news is that he doesn’t have weird numbers attached to his name. The bad news is that he doesn’t know the difference between your and you’re (and yore, probably), and he also doesn’t understand that I publish all of my results. There’s no reason for his little brain to wonder anything.

In this final piece of hate mail, someone quote tweeted something accurate I posted about AWFLs, who are the scourge of America:



Here’s what the quote tweeter wrote:



What a scumbag! This is the sort of behavior you saw from those who turned in their neighbors during the Holocaust, or those who turned in their neighbors during Covid, or basically Randall from the cartoon TV show Recess. This is a place in hell reserved for these individuals.

The funny thing is, I don’t work with these organizations. How can one work with NFL Draft, anyway? This is another mentally retarded person.

Here’s the rest of our interaction:





I have zero doubt in my mind that this person abuses women and/or children. He was clearly thinking about it when he made baseless accusations against me, so this is what we call projection.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers’ 23 points in Philadelphia was a surprise to some. They scored just three points in the prior game against the Seahawks and were battling the No. 3 defense in the NFL. Seven early points came on a fluky big play by Demarcus Robinson, but the Eagles couldn’t stop the 49ers when it counted most.

There was one big boost for the 49ers in the game against Philadelphia, and that was Trent Williams’ return to action. Williams wasn’t available for the Seattle game, but he played against the Eagles. I wondered if he wouldn’t be 100 percent coming off injury, and he wasn’t, but his presence allowed the 49ers to block better than they would have without him. Williams should be even better with nearly a week of rest. He’ll make a huge difference versus Seattle’s stout offensive front.

While Williams will be healthier, George Kittle – or as my dad mistakenly calls him, “Gary Kittles” – will be sidelined. While Jake Tonges has been a terrific replacement, Kittle will sorely be missed in this matchup because Seattle is one of the weakest teams against tight ends. The Seahawks, conversely, are No. 2 against the run, so Christian McCaffrey will get even less on the ground than he did against the Eagles.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Eagles scored just 19 points against the 49ers, but that doesn’t mean that San Francisco’s defense played well. Jalen Hurts made some horrific throws, while A.J. Brown’s three drops were killers. Lane Johnson’s unexpected absence also loomed large.

I’m expecting a better performance from Seattle’s offense against the San Francisco defense. The 49ers have no personnel capable of getting to the quarterback, which is huge against Sam Darnold. We know the issue with Darnold by now – he’s awful under pressure, but can perform well when kept clean. He’ll be kept clean in this game, allowing him to connect frequently with Jaxson Smith-Njigba.

The 49ers are better against the run than the pass, but only by default. They lost yet another linebacker a couple of weeks ago, which is why they looked so inept against Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet in Week 18. Saquon Barkley, who couldn’t run against anyone not named the Giants all year, generated 100 rushing yards last week. Walker and Charbonnet should be able to pick up where they left off in the regular-season finale.

RECAP: The Seahawks beat the 49ers by 10 a couple of weeks ago, doing so in San Francisco. Both teams had equal rest heading into that game, but that’s not the case this time. The NFL, in its infinite wisdom, scheduled the 49ers to play on a short week, while the Seahawks have the luxury of coming off a bye. I don’t understand why the NFL is doing this outside of monetary reasons. Roger Goodell, once again, will do anything it takes to make a quick buck.

The lack of rest and preparation time isn’t ideal for the 49ers, but I think they can overcome it for two reasons. First, they’re a good team, and it’s generally the bad teams that perform way worse on a short week. Second, they’ll have Williams available, which wasn’t the case in Week 18. It can’t be stated how important Williams is for the 49ers in general, let alone in a game against the league’s No. 2 pressure rate.

I’m not in love with this pick, but I’m going to take the points. We’re getting all the key numbers with a decent team, and I don’t think the Seahawks are this amazing squad where they should be favored by more than a touchdown versus a competent opponent. Aside from the Week 18 result, the Seahawks haven’t beaten an opponent of San Francisco’s caliber or better by more than eight points. And I know I’m not counting the win over the 49ers, but again, that was without Williams, who is extremely important in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Fred Warner was limited on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s been indicated that Warner’s return is scheduled for next week, but it’s not like the 49ers are locked into that decision. There’s a chance Warner could play, which would explain why the sharps took the 49ers at +7.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: Fred Warner is out, but that’s not the major news in this game. Sam Darnold left Thursday’s practice with an oblique injury and is listed as questionable. While he’ll probably play, it’s not a certainty. Mike Macdonald said he’s “really optimistic” that Darnold will play, but he also said that the injury could limit Darnold physically. I think we need to lock in the 49ers because if Darnold is out, this line will drop to +3 or +3.5. The best line is 49ers +7 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sam Darnold will play, which is a bummer, but we don’t know if he’ll be 100 percent. The sharps were on the 49ers at +7.5 earlier in the week and +7 today. This line is +6.5 in most places, but you can still get +6.5 -114 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.