Open Rants by Grizzly




Potential Trading Partners for the Bears at 11
Published at 4/1/2016
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Traditionally teams do not make deals with teams in their division and to a much lesser extent teams in their conference, so don't expect to see a trade with GB, DET or MIN anytime soon. When I look at a draft I try to remember trades are rare, so chances are always better a team stays put rather than moves. Certain teams like LA have a history of being more active than others (like GB). Unlike Free Agency where there is added value signing a restricted player from a competitor the vast majority of trades must be Win - Win (or at least seemingly so). Many factors go into a trade on both sides, not the least of them familiarity. For example we've seen Foxy and Pace target players they know, the same is true with Vince and other coaches and scouts, so we can expect a higher probability with teams our team has a connection or history with as opposed to those we don't. I don't take much stock in team preferences with regard to who trades up more than down; however during Pace's tenure at New Orleans they traded up but not down. Let's look at the teams in front of us and see who might be willing to trade down WITH US first.

1) Titans: Trades for number one are blockbusters and I see no scenario where we would trade up for the top pick

2) Browns: Here again the only shot at this would be if the Browns abandoned their QB quest (possible) and convinced Pace to sell the ranch for the number two. The most likely scenario here would involve Cutler or Jeffery and I can't see any other way to make this happen, because Pace is not going to give away our (and his) future with a pot full of current and future picks. Percentage 5% chance.

3) Chargers: When we look at any trade value chart we recognize that these are just a guide, I like Drafttek's personally. But what jumps out is how expensive the top three picks are. Indeed this pick is seen by many experts to be in play, but for us specifically less so as I see it. It would cost a bundle to move up for us and I just don't see it happening. Percentage 5% chance

4) Cowboys: This pick too is unlikely and for several reasons, yes it is more affordable but my personal opinion is Jerry is in a great position of flexibility. I do not discount the QB position for either SD or Dallas (as many do), Rivers has already spoke about retiring and he dances to a different drummer. Indeed the Cowboys have been actively blowing smoke about the longevity of Romo, but neither he nor Rivers are ascending players at this point in their careers. Who knows maybe the injury took its toll and this is being guarded like a State secret. The other thing s while Cornerback is seen as a principal need they'd have a small chance of Ramsey and certainly someone to help them with the pass rush will be available at four if their QB target is gone. Percentage 7% chance

5) Jags: This is the first realistic pick where the Bears have a shot and it is a pretty good shot. However, don't expect the Bears to be the only team who recognizes this pick is very tradeable. The biggest reason it is available is the general opinion is corner is their biggest need. This draft is full of talented corner's and afterRamsey and Hargraves there is little separation between Jackson, Burns, Apple, Alexander and Fuller thus you can get a good to excellent corner in the top 20. LA at 15 most likely will be competition depending on how the QB's fall in 1 -4 and who of them is highest on their board. From our perspective moving to 5 would give us great flexibility with likely targets being QB, Jack, Bosa, Buckner, Stanley. Assuming CB is their target and since the draft was set expert mocks showed Hargraves here more than any other top 10 pick (including Tunsil at 1), there is a chance he might be available at 11. Lance Zierlein puts CB as the Jags primary need followed by center, OLB and guard. Perhaps it is coincidental but very quickly in the last two days our bears have acquired a center and two guards and it is notable to remember Jags play a 4-3 and both Young and Houston have expressed interest in moving to a 4-3 scheme. Jags are also in good shape on their cap so follow the dots. Suppose Jags could gain the flexibility to draft for the proverbial best player available by  eliminating a center, guard and OLB in a trade with Chicago and only lose six slots and retain the certainty of drafting a top CB? That sounds like a Win - Win to me. Percentage 35%.

6) Ravens: The vast majority of experts have Stanley slotted here (unless the draft breaks unexpectedly) OT is their consensus biggest need. The problem with them moving down is most agree Tunsil is followed closely by Stanley but there is separation between these two and Conklin and Decker (granted less for Conklin, but still some). Unlike corner, there are fewer top LT's, moving down most likely would sacrifice Stanley and that makes moving down much less likely than the Jags and less ideal with LA as a trading partner. Percentage 15%

7) Niner's: My guess is they'd take either of the top two QB's here, but I like a comeback story (ala Cutler) and unlike many, I think Cap is a darn good fit for Kelly's system. Still it seems unlikely they's even talk to anyone about trades before Draft Day as it might tip their hand. The other thing is how trading from 7 -10 has diminishing returns as our options are expiring. Percentage 7%

8 - 10) I just don't see us moving up three or less spots unless it is Draft Day and on the clock. Percentage 5%


Now let's look at us trading down. Here I am only going to mention and rank a few scenarios (as opposed to every team)
 
12) Saints:  They get a mention because of Pace, but again not much value in trading down one Percentage 5%

13) Dolphins:  They get a mention because of Gase, but again not much value in trading down one Percentage 5%

14) Raiders:  They could be players because they are an ascending team and out of our conference, Percentage 10%

15) Rams: I expect the Rams to do something though what is the question. For the Rams to trade with us two dynamics would be in play 1) a QB they wanted falls to us and/or 2) they smell someone lower trading ahead of them. While Lynch is often mocked here, there are some other possibilities with less notoriety that may intrigue them. Percentage 15%

17) Falcons: They could move up to 11 if they saw a prospect they loved who would not make it to them (probably a pass rusher) Percentage 7%

18) Colts: Other conference and coziness to Foxy might help this happen. Their target would probably be Conklin. Percentage 15%

19) Bills: Likewise Conklin or a stud for defense could attract Ryan Percentage 10%

20) Jets: Here is a interesting possibility we flip picks and get Muhammad Wilkerson who we can afford and the Jets would get some cap flexibility. Percentage 25%

22) Texans:  If Elliott fell to us this might happen Percentage 10%
%
24) Bengals: Might happen if they were in love with Treadwell or another prospect. Percentage 7%

30) Panthers: Foxy, Riviera might get together 7%

31) Broncos: I think Pace would make them pay to basically drop us out of the first round so how desperate are they? Percentage 7%.

Summery: Really any team who needs a corner, OT or QB and falls in love with them is a possibility for us at 11. On the upside I'd look hard at the Jags and on the downside the Jets....What do you think?



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