Open Rants by IMKudaimi




This is the year a 2 loss team makes the CFP
Published at 11/12/2017
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A week ago, this topic didn't have any reason to be spoken about. Georgia and Bama would play each other, undefeated, in the SEC championship, the winner getting the number 1 seed. Notre Dame and Clemson were comfortably going to make it as well. Oklahoma would be stuck on the outside looking in. Now though, after one of the craziest Saturdays of all time, the playoff door has been opened, and it won't close till the last seconds. Georgia got wrecked at 10 Auburn. Notre Dame was blown out at 7 Miami. Alabama barely escaped at 16 Mississippi State with a win (a team who, by the way, were blown out by Georgia and Auburn). Through all this, Bama has only beaten 2 ranked teams (not counting FSU), at Mississippi State in the last minute, and against LSU at home, where they didn't dominate. Georgia is interesting. They've played 3 ranked teams, beating Notre Dame away, Mississippi State at home, and being blown out by Auburn away.Miami has beaten Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Toledo at home, but barely beat 4 teams in a row, none of whom are anywhere near the top 25. Oklahoma may be the only team with a playoff spot wrapped up, as they have good wins at Ohio State, at Oklahoma State, and versus TCU, as well as 1 not too bad loss at Iowa State. Barring something surprising in the Big 12 championship game, they're in. Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Auburn are falling under categories similar o Michigan and Penn State last year, while Bama falls under a similar category to Ohio State last year. The 3 former teams all have some very good wins, as well as good losses, but...they each have 2 losses. Bama, if they lose to Auburn, will have only one loss, and no conference championship. But unlike OSU last year, they didn't have 4 wins vs top 10 teams. Only 2 wins against top 20 teams. Besides that, nothing special. Remember, everyone has said that eventually, a 2 loss team has got to make the playoff. Penn State and Michigan came very close last year, and the only reason 1 loss Washington, who had an awful out of conference schedule and not many great wins, made it, was because they weren't quite prepared to put any 2 loss team in yet, even though Penn State and Michigan deserved to be in more than Washington. Remember, Penn State had lost at Michigan and at Pittsburgh, and also had 2 wins vs top 10 teams. Michigan had a similar resume to Penn State, and they had 2 top 10 wins and another ranked win, only losing at Iowa and at OSU. Those teams didn't make the playoff. But these 3 two-loss teams have a better resume than those 2. Specifically, that is if Auburn and Ohio State win their conferences. The committee has said conference championships are important. Let's see here. If Ohio State beats another ranked team likely in Michigan, then beats either undefeated or 1 loss Wisconsin for the Big Ten, they have a better resume than Alabama, maybe Georgia, as well as Wisconsin and ACC Championship loser and USC and some other top teams, as their losses were at Iowa and vs Oklahoma. If Auburn beats Bama, then beats Georgia AGAIN in the SEC Championship, they have a better resume than all SEC teams and other teams, with 2 wins vs number 1 teams and beating multiple top 10 teams, only losing to another top 5 team and at anoter ranked team, in Clemson and LSU. Notre Dame doesn't have as much of a chance, but if a lot happens in front of them, they could get in. They've lost at Miami and vs Georgia, 2 very good losses. Add that to winning out and beating a top 10 team and 2 other ranked teams, and they also have a pretty good resume. 

Simply put, none of the undefeated or 1 loss teams have been very dominant, and they still have strong loss chances in their schedule. This is by far the hardest test the committee faces. But this HAS to be the year a 2 loss team makes the playoff.




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