Waiting on a Running Back?
There seems to be a new strategy in fantasy football where owners wait on Running Backs until the 10th round in their respective drafts. I’d like to break this down and see if there is some legitimate advantage to this drafting strategy, or if football fans have just been so bored waiting for the season to start that inhaling paint fumes has become fun.
First off there are a lot of variables to think about, the first being league scoring. If we are talking about a standard format this strategy will most likely bring you nothing but the first pick on the waiver wire the whole season and a major frustration for giving your money away yet again this year in fantasy football. But we will look at it anyways, just to see the results.
The 2 examples that I will show is drafting from the 5th in a 12 man standard scoring with a standard roster (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, DEF, K) and then in a PPR format with the same roster.
In the standard format waiting until the 10th round I was left with nothing. There were sleepers that you could pull the trigger on like McKinnion, Washington, Crowell, and Ajayi but there was no player that would offer at least a consistent 10 points a week for the roster in a standard format. These guys will all be dependent each week on getting touchdowns to give you points.
In the PPR format, however, I was able to see some different results that could provide legitimacy to this strategy. I was able to grab Theo Riddick in the 10th, and Blount in the 11th giving me 2 starters capable of producing 20-25 points a week between them and still have Ware, Washington and Mckinnon on the bench as sleepers down the stretch. This also provided me with a loaded WR set in A.J. Green, Evans, D. Thomas, Tate, Sanders, White and Diggs.
After doing a few of these drafts and seeing the results I would say that using this strategy in a standard league is like expecting Johnny Manziel to make a comeback this year in the NFL. However, with how many RB’s were injured last year and the amount of teams using 2 RB's I can see using this strategy in a PPR league and finding success. A player like Riddick can rack in 4-6 receptions a game for 30-60 yards and 5-10 touches for another 20-30 yards and then you're looking at roughly 60 total yards and 5 receptions for 11 points without even getting a TD.
My final comments will be that no science is guaranteed in fantasy football. No one can predict injury, however, you have to be able to put yourself in the best chance to win games. That means handcuffing and collecting dual threat players. And hoping the fantasy gods don't hate you this year.