NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170) full review
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2016): 9-4-1 (+$80) full review
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2016): 7-7 (+$225) full review
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2016): 5-10-1 (-$1,090)

NFL Picks (2016): 106-81-9 (+$3,580)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 5, 6:45 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games

Buffalo Bills (6-5) at Oakland Raiders (9-2)
Line: Raiders by 3.5. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Raiders -1.5.
Sunday, Dec 4, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he recently won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona or tells a new story. Including this one…

Tom Brady was given a new mission from Donald Trump. He was told to visit the neighboring country and convince them to build a wall in case Trump loses to Hillary Clinton. Tom needs to do this to keep the Latin Kings out of the country. To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Raider nation was quickly reminded of what life was like before Derek Carr in Sunday’s victory over the Panthers. Carr dislocated his finger and had to leave the game. As a result, Oakland’s 24-7 lead vanished into thin air, thanks in part to one horrible drive by Matt McGloin. Carr was able to return, and while he wasn’t overly effective on most of his possessions, he was able to will his team to victory.

Carr is expected to play this game, but he has two dislocations in his fingers. It can’t be quite certain that he’ll be 100-percent effective. A completely healthy Carr would be able to torch a middling Buffalo secondary that could be missing Ronald Darby. However, it’s possible that he could be at 75 or 80 percent, or so.

The Raiders will need Carr at full strength to move the chains consistently, given that they don’t run the ball particularly well. Latavius Murray is one of the weaker starting running backs in the NFL, and the Bills have stopped the rush well ever since Marcell Dareus has returned from injury.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills obviously stand a better chance of establishing their ground attack, thanks to LeSean McCoy. The dynamic back proved to be healthy last week, and he figures to have a strong performance against an Oakland defense that had issues tackling Jonathan Stewart last week. Perry Riley’s absence definitely had something to do with Stewart’s success, but it’s unclear if Riley will be healthy. It’s possible Oakland could keep him out with an important divisional battle upcoming in four days. Even still, McCoy will have plenty of success as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.

Meanwhile, there should definitely be some good opportunities for Tyrod Taylor. Like Riley, David Amerson missed last week’s contest, and this allowed Cam Newton to torch the Oakland secondary in the second half. Amerson could return this week, but once again, with another game in four days, the Raiders could opt to be cautious. If so, the suddenly healthy Sammy Watkins could go off.

If Amerson and Riley are out, Khalil Mack will need to work extra hard to pressure Taylor. Mack has an easy matchup against inept right tackle Jordan Mills, but Taylor’s great mobility will undoubtedly aid him in getting away from one of the league’s top edge rushers.

RECAP: I expressed my frustration about this spread way back in the first capsule. The truth is that before this line came out, I thought it could be my November NFL Pick of the Month. Based on the records of these two teams, I thought Oakland would be -5.5 or -6. That would’ve been four or 4.5 points off my projection. Alas, the books have listed a tight line of -3 (-3.5 -105 at Bovada).

It sucks that these spreads are so tight, but I still like the Bills a great deal. In fact, this is a five-unit wager. I made this spread Raiders -1.5, so we’re getting two points of value, going through a key number in the process.

Why only -1.5? Well, these teams aren’t too far apart in my NFL Power Rankings, as the Bills have been playing much better lately. The Raiders have no home-field advantage, hence the -1.5 line.

There are two other factors as well. First, Oakland has poor scheduling dynamics, as it has to battle the Chiefs in just four days. That game is for the division, so with some banged-up players, the Raiders may want to focus on that contest more. Second, Carr may not be 100 percent because of the two dislocations in his fingers. If he’s 80 percent instead of a 100 percent, the Bills will have a great chance to not only cover, but to pull the upset as well.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing has really changed, as this spread has remained the same since Thursday. The sharps took the Bills at +3.5, but haven’t touched them at +3. Bovada is still offering +3.5 -115.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have been betting the Bills, which is obviously a good sign. It doesn’t seem like the books want to drop this to +2.5 for fear of a middle. Buffalo is still my second-favorite side of the week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Bovada is the only book I see offering +3.5. The juice is -120, but I think it might be worth it, as this game has a high percentage chance of landing on three.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Raiders play the Chiefs in four days in a game that will decide the division.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
Slight lean on the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 60% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 10-17 ATS since November 2011 as a road underdog.

True home teams are 32-22 ATS in the last 54 Bills games.

Raiders are 15-29 ATS after a win since 2009.

Raiders are 6-25 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -3.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Raiders 24, Bills 23
Bills +3.5 -120 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$600
Under 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 38, Bills 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) at San Diego Chargers (5-6)
Line: Chargers by 3.5. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -4.5.
Sunday, Dec 4, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Tom Brady Voted for Donald Trump
Christine Michael: Typical Millennial
Ranking the NFL Officials

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

KKunert327 Mock Draft
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Also, this is a reminder to make your pick for the WalterFootball.com 2016 NFL Survivor Pool if you’re still alive! We had 2,430 entries to start, with 412 entering Week 7. We’re now down to 136, as we only lost four players last week, thanks to the Seahawks.

Make sure to check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers are beginning to finally live up to their potential. They made numerous mistakes earlier in the season, but they’ve begun cutting down on those. They aren’t totally in the clear, however, as Jameis Winston threw an ugly interception late against the Seahawks, which could’ve put the game away. Meanwhile, a touchdown to Cameron Brate was negated by penalty. Had the Seahawks been able to block at all, they could’ve made things interesting.

Though the Chargers don’t have the same big names that the Legion of Boom has, they’ve done extremely well defensively lately, thanks in part to Casey Hayward, who figures to be a Pro Bowler this year. Hayward is an excellent cornerback the Packers almost certainly wish they had retained. He should be able to handle Mike Evans, and as we’ve seen, when opposing defenses take Evans away with an elite No. 1 cornerback, the Buccaneers tend to struggle. Tampa did beat Seattle this past Sunday, but scored just 14 points.

The Chargers have other great aspects of their defense, as Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram rush the passer extremely well. Bosa has been unbelievable as a rookie, but Ingram has the better matchup, as he’ll be going up against ineffective left tackle Donovan Smith. Meanwhile, the Chargers stop the run fairly well, so Doug Martin will be limited.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: As mentioned earlier, the Seahawks couldn’t block at all in their loss last week. Tampa Bay’s pass rush has been coming on, thanks to second-round rookie Noah Spence improving each week. Gerald McCoy is still the best player on the defensive line, and he had an extremely easy matchup versus the Seahawks, thanks to Seattle starting center Justin Britt being out of the lineup. McCoy won’t have such an easy time this week, but Spence will perhaps, as right tackle Joseph Barksdale has been atrocious this year.

Even still, Philip Rivers will have more time than Russell Wilson enjoyed. That won’t be the case on every play, or anything, but on the instances in which he is granted a clean pocket, he’ll be able to torch Tampa’s awful safeties. The Buccaneers’ secondary hasn’t been exposed too often lately because of the improved pass rush, but Rivers is great enough to change that, though his big plays won’t be as frequent as they normally would be if he had better protection.

The Chargers will attempt to keep the Buccaneer pass-rushers at bay by establishing Melvin Gordon on the ground. Gordon has been tremendous this year, but the Buccaneers have stopped the run extremely well all season, so the second-year back’s opportunities could be limited.

RECAP: There are a couple of games this week that I have no beat on, and this is one of them. I made this line -4.5, and it’s -4, so there’s no real line value either way. I’m leaning toward the Buccaneers, as they tend to be better on the road, while San Diego’s homefield advantage is pretty poor. However, I worry about Tampa being overconfident following last week’s big victory over the Seahawks. Still, I’m picking the visitor, but not for any sort of confident opinion.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public has bet this game down to +3.5, but that doesn’t really affect my stance on this game. I’m still leaning on a Tampa cover.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been thinking about this pick a lot, and I’ve decided to switch to the Chargers. I think this spread is too low. San Diego is a top-10 NFL team, while the Buccaneers have been wishy-washy. They’ve been better lately, but they’ve taken advantage of two banged-up opponents. I still don’t feel confident enough to bet this game, but I believe that the Chargers are the right side.

SportsLine’s Micah Roberts is 22-6 in college football Over-Under picks this season (+1534 profit). He’s also won his last 5 NFL Over-Under picks. You can get all of his plays by visiting SportsLine.com.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has continued to drop. If you like the Chargers, you can now get -3 -125 at 5Dimes, which could definitely be worth it. I’d take that over -3.5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Slight sharp lean on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 65% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 73-42 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Philip Rivers is 34-22 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Chargers 26, Buccaneers 21
Chargers -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 49 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Buccaneers 28, Chargers 21

Washington Redskins (6-4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6-1)
Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -2.
Sunday, Dec 4, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Redskins.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 9! Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven’t already.

Season 9 will deal with election stuff, and it begins with something strange happening to Emmitt while he’s stuck in traffic at a protest rally. In the 12th chapter, a sacrifice must be made to escape from Matt Millen. Then, Emmitt finally exposes Hillary Clinton.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I’ve discussed how stupid Bruce Arians’ game plan was against the Falcons quite enough by now, so I won’t delve into it fully again. What I will mention is that David Johnson sustained a dislocated finger in the second half, so he was in and out of the lineup. Still, he played enough to see more than 13 carries.

Johnson will be able to suit up for this contest, in all likelihood, and he’ll have another favorable matchup. The Redskins aren’t particularly potent against the run, so there could be some good opportunities for Johnson, provided Bruce Arians doesn’t forget to give his stud back carries once again.

The Redskins, like the Falcons, will crowd the line of scrimmage and force Carson Palmer to beat them downfield. Teams have figured out that Palmer is a mere shell of his former self, and they’re well aware of the issues the Cardinals have with their offensive line. Ryan Kerrigan figures to have a ridiculous game against the human turnstile Arizona is starting at right tackle. Palmer, as a result, won’t be overly consistent, especially considering that Josh Norman will take away one of his downfield weapons. Larry Fitzgerald figures to have a solid game, assuming Norman doesn’t follow him into the slot, but will Palmer target the future Hall of Famer more than four times this week?

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins is on a tear. Though he lost to the Cowboys, he played extremely well. If Dallas’ billion-dollar stadium were designed better, and the sun glare didn’t cause some drops, perhaps the Redskins would’ve won that game. At the very least, they wouldn’t have needed a back-door touchdown to cover.

Going up against Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu may sound like a daunting task for Cousins, but it’s really not. Peterson is dealing with a bum knee, and he couldn’t move very well at the end of the Atlanta game. Mathieu, meanwhile, is clearly not at full strength. Thus, Cousins will have a better performance than many may expect of him.

Perhaps the greatest challenge for the Redskins’ offense, aside from establishing the run, is keeping Chandler Jones, Calais Campbell and Markus Golden out of the backfield. I expect Campbell to put some heat on Cousins, but backup left tackle Ty Nsekhe has done a solid job filling in for Trent Williams, so while Jones could get on the board with a sack, he won’t constantly be flooding the backfield.

RECAP: I made a huge mistake betting on the Cardinals last week. I, quite simply, was an idiot. I’ve been harping about how bad and overrated the Cardinals have been all year, and yet I suddenly stopped following my own advice. I can’t believe I was so stupid, though I’m sure some in the comment board weren’t so surprised!

Well, I’ve learned the error of my ways, and yet the sportsbooks haven’t. Why are the Cardinals favored against a very good Washington team coming off extra rest? That doesn’t make much sense to me. The Cardinals stink. Let’s take a look at what they’ve done since Week 7: They tied the Seahawks at home even though Russell Wilson was so hurt that he couldn’t throw accurately at all. They were destroyed at Carolina the following week. After the bye, they beat the 49ers by just a field goal. They then lost to a Minnesota team that had dropped four consecutive games. And last week, they were once again blown out, this time by an above-average Atlanta team.

Once again, I ask why the Cardinals are favored over the surging Redskins, who have had extra time to prepare? This is a three-unit pick for me, and it would be a higher bet if I could get +3. I’m slightly concerned about the public money, but it’s not an overwhelming amount.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As I indicated on the picks podcast, I’m going to move this to four units, though I’m holding out hope for the Redskins to get to +3.

SATURDAY NOTES: Still holding out hope for +3. The Redskins definitely seem like the right side to me. Think about it this way: Arizona at Washington, per this line, would be Redskins -3.5. The Falcons were favored by six over the Cardinals, and Washington is a bit better than Atlanta. This spread should be a pick ’em at the worst; I actually think the Redskins should be -2.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s still no +3 available, but 5Dimes is at least offering +2.5 -105, which is a nice consolation prize, I guess.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

The Redskins are a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Washington: 67% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 26-14 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 27-12 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Bruce Arians is 34-27 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Redskins 26, Cardinals 20
Redskins +2.5 -105 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$420
Under 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 31, Redskins 23

New York Giants (8-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 498.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -6.
Sunday, Dec 4, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Steelers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Brain-Dead Saturday, Part 1.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Giants have been getting lots of acclaim for their tremendous defensive efforts this season. Their stop unit has been great for sure, but the level of competition definitely has to be called into question. Ever since getting torched by Aaron Rodgers on a Sunday night back in Week 5, the Giants have battled the following quarterbacks: Joe Flacco (scored 23 points against them), Case Keenum, Carson Wentz (also scored 23 points against them), Andy Dalton, Jay Cutler and Josh McCown. Flacco and Wentz are the best signal-callers they’ve faced in nearly two months, by far, and both posted 23 points against them in New York.

I don’t want to take away everything from the Giants because they definitely do have some stellar players on defense. However, their stop unit does have holes, and it can be beaten. The Steelers have decent tackles to handle Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon for the most part, and this should grant Ben Roethlisberger enough time to find Antonio Brown downfield for plenty of big gains. Janoris Jenkins and Landon Collins have been performing on a high level, but there’s no stopping Brown.

I expect Roethlisberger to work the awful linebackers as well. Le’Veon Bell figures to have big game, both as a runner and a pass-catcher. It’s been a long time since the Giants have battled a team with a strong rushing attack (Week 3?) and Bell is extremely difficult to contain.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants’ defense won’t be limiting to opposition to 20 points or fewer again, so the scoring unit will have to keep up. This could prove to be a problem, however, as the Giants are extremely one-dimensional on this side of the ball.

Eli Manning to Odell Beckham Jr. That’s all New York has, offensively. Granted, it’s a pretty great dimension to have, but it’s not like Manning is going to throw 80-yard touchdowns to Beckham on every single possession. He couldn’t even if he tried to, as the blocking wouldn’t hold up. The tackles are struggling, while Justin Pugh is sorely missed. I expect James Harrison and Stephon Tuitt to flood the backfield and make life extremely difficult for Manning.

Meanwhile, the Giants don’t run the ball particularly well either. That’s actually putting it very nicely, as their ground attack is completely dormant, and I don’t expect it to awaken in this matchup.

RECAP: I made this line -6. When I saw an opening spread of -4.5, I was mildly excited. Within hours, the sharps bet the Steelers up to -6, and now there is no line value.

I still like Pittsburgh to cover, but I’m not going to bet on this game. The Giants usually play the role of the underdog very well, and I wouldn’t discount a Manning-to-Beckham back-door touchdown, much like we saw in Green Bay back in Week 5. This contest could mirror that one, as New York is just a middling team that will be outclassed by a superior opponent once again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. This spread is exactly what it should be, and either team could cover. I fear the Eli Manning back-door touchdown. The sharps didn’t at -4.5, but they’ve stopped betting the Steelers at -6.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps continue to bet the Steelers, who are now favored by 6.5 in many books. I think this line is right where it should be, so I don’t believe this game is worth betting.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Most books are now at -6.5, though -6 is still available at Bovada. The sharps have pounded Pittsburgh, while the public has been on the Giants.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 55% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 45-29 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 37-28 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Steelers are 32-14 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Mike Tomlin is 8-18 ATS as a favorite after a win of 14+ in the regular season unless a bye is coming up.

Opening Line: Steelers -4.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Steelers 30, Giants 23
Steelers -6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 24, Giants 14

Carolina Panthers (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (7-3-1)
Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -8.5.
Sunday, Dec 4, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Trolling will continue. I can’t attack the NFL.com or ESPN boards because the fascist scum working at Facebook prevented me from making posts that others besides my friends can see. They’ve also been penalizing the other trolls. However, I have been hitting up the team pages on Facebook.

The Seahawks crushed the Eagles, which gave Mario an opportunity to talk trash:

Umm… wrong, Ashley. If you check Mario’s history, he’s been trolling since 2012. That’s five years!

Now, let’s move on to talking trash to Buc fans:

I love how Aaron concentrated just on “losting,” failing to recognize what sort of holiday “thankgivding” was, or which NFL team the “bucanoairs” happened to be.

Anyway, the Buccaneers Facebook page encouraged all of the fans to wear red…

Derrick is one to talk! Buccaneer fans may spell check, but they sure as hell don’t know the difference between “your” and “you’re.”

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Now that the Packers won, MS-ESPN’s new “the sky is falling” team might be the Seahawks. They lost at Tampa, after all, scoring just five points. They surrendered more sacks than points scored, which is enough to make any MS-ESPN executive splooge all over his computer as he types up ridiculous questions for all of the network’s talking heads to ask each other during the network’s mind-numbing telecasts.

I predict that Justin Britt’s name won’t be mentioned a single occasion throughout the week. MS-ESPN wouldn’t actually delve into the meat of a game, but here it is: The reason why the Seahawks were so ineffective at Tampa was Britt’s absence. Britt is Seattle’s best offensive lineman. He was out against the Buccaneers, prompting Gerald McCoy to have a ridiculous game in the trenches. Center is one of the most important positions in football, and the Seahawks found that out the hard way in their loss to Tampa.

Britt is expected back, which is going to be a huge boost. It stings for the Panthers, however, as they don’t have a very good pass rush. Thus, Russell Wilson will have much more of an opportunity this week to torch an opposing secondary. As we all know by now, the Panthers’ defensive backfield is an abomination, so Wilson will be able to launch numerous successful passes downfield.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: But what about Seattle’s defense? The Buccaneers scored 14 on them in the first half, and that point total would’ve been higher had Cameron Brate not had a touchdown overturned by penalty. Injuries played a big part here as well.

Earl Thomas missed the first game of his illustrious career last week, and the Seahawks suffered as a consequence. They looked exactly like they did when Kam Chancellor was out of the lineup, blowing some coverages because they were missing such an important part of their defense. Thomas is expected to return this week, and as an added bonus, Michael Bennett is scheduled to take the field as well for the first time since Week 7.

Bennett’s return is horrible news for the Panthers, who struggle to block on the edge. Bennett and Cliff Avril are going to terrorize Carolina’s horrible tackles, making life very difficult for Cam Newton. Jonathan Stewart, meanwhile, won’t find as much running room with Bennett creating havoc in the trenches.

RECAP: I’m making this pick with the assumption that Britt, Thomas and Bennett will be back. With the Seahawks at full strength, I like them to defeat the Panthers quite easily, and my projected spread reflects that. I made this number -8.5, and yet the actual spread is either -6.5 or -7. The Panthers are not a good team, as they needed Derek Carr to be injured to mount a comeback against the Raiders. Luke Kuechly’s concussion has worsened Carolina’s defense by a wide margin, and that was evident at Oakland.

In addition to the Seahawks being substantially better than the Panthers, they also have motivation on their side. They’ll be looking to silence skeptics and also avenge last year’s playoff loss. The public is betting Carolina, but I think they’re going to be in for an unpleasant surprise Sunday night.

I’m making this a two-unit wager for now, and I’m thinking of moving this to three units. However, if Seattle’s key players don’t return from injury, as expected, I’ll decrease the unit count.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s almost official that everyone on Seattle will be back this week. As promised, I’m going to move this to three units, and I’ll even lock this selection in at -7, since I anticipate the sharps betting the Seahawks. They’ve already pounded them at -6.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: Here’s another game where the professionals have bet the home favorite. This line has now crossed 7.5, so I’m glad I was able to lock this in at -7, though I did miss -6.5. I don’t think the Seahawks are worth a large wager at -7.5; I think I’d only go with a unit instead of three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t complain too much because I hit my November NFL Pick of the Month, but that Washington loss was disgusting, considering that the Cardinals were up by one and just running the clock out. And I don’t know what the hell happened to the Bills. They were up 24-9 and then were outscored 29-0 to close out the game. Ugh. Anyway, the sharps have continued to pound the Seahawks, as they recognize that Seattle is healthy now, while Carolina is banged up. This spread was way too short at -7, but the value really isn’t there at -8, which is what the line is now in most books.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 52% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Cam Newton is 18-14 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Seahawks are 38-19 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Russell Wilson is 9-6 ATS after a loss as long as he’s not favored by -10 or more.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Panthers 16
Seahawks -7 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahwks 40, Panthers 7

Indianapolis Colts (5-6) at New York Jets (3-8)
Line: Jets by 1.5. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -1.
Monday, Dec 5, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Colts.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the great city of Indiana! Tonight, the Indianapolis Colts take on the New York Jets. Guys, Andrew Luck missing last week screwed my fantasy team, so let’s talk about that for a second. Wait, hold on, I’m getting a call. It’s mother. She’ll be upset if I don’t pick up, and she might ground me again. Hello? Mother? I’ll put you on speaker because I need to do some announcing.

Reilly’s Mother: Kevin, are you playing with your friends again on a Monday night? Don’t they have school the next day?

Reilly: No, mother! I told you that I have work!

Reilly’s Mother: Don’t be silly, poo-pee. You’re too young to work, and you’re much too young for a girlfriend.

Emmitt: Miss… uhh… Miss I do not know the last name of Mike is, Mike a real old man, he maybe like 50 year old which mean he been alived for 500 decade and he old enough for job and friendgirl.

Herm: THE MATH IS WRONG! YOUR MATH IS WRONG! YOUR MATH IS WRONG, EMMITT! YOUR MATH IS OFF! YOUR MATH IS OFF, EMMITT! TO CONVERT YEARS TO DECADES, YOU DIVIDE BY TEN! INSTEAD YOU MULTIPLIED BY 10! THAT’S THE WRONG SYMBOL! MULTIPLY IS THE X! DIVIDE IS THE DASH! SOMETIMES YOU CAN CONFUSE THE X AND DASH! SOMETIMES HERM GETS CONFUSED! BUT HERM’S CLEAR-HEADED NOW! HERM’S HEAD NEVER BEEN CLEARER! HERM’S HEAD THE CLEAREST IT’S EVER BEEN! CLEAREST IT’S BEEN IN DECADES! WHICH MEANS YOU DIVIDE BY 10 TO GET YEARS! I MEAN MULTIPLY! WAIT, HERM’S CONFUSED!? HERM’S HEAD NO LONGER CLEAR! HERM’S HEAD… uhh… umm…

Reilly’s Mother: Kevin, poo-pee, who is that crazy man yelling in the background? I don’t want you playing with crazy people. He might have AIDS that you’ll catch.

Millen: Mrs. Riley, believe me, your son is not catching AIDS anytime soon. According to my kielbasa sextant, hearing his relationship with you has decreased his USDA Manliness to negative-5,000 percent. This means that any kielbasas in a 5,000-foot radius will rot almost instantly when around your son’s backside. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ll move my kielbasas away from this location.

Reilly: Shut up, Millen! I’m going to get grounded if mother hears you saying the k-word so often!

Tollefson: Kevin, let me speak to your mother. Hello, Mrs. Reilly? You are old, correct? You are far too old to cook and clean naked for me, but perhaps you have an attractive niece or granddaughter who can cook and clean naked for me? Don’t worry about her saying no. Women say no all the time to me, and that doesn’t matter because I’m a man and I’ll make them do whatever I want, even if I have to drug them and tie them up in my basement.

Reilly’s Mother: Kevin, how many people are there? I told you that you’re not allowed to hang out with more than three friends at a single time because it might be too dangerous and it’s a fire hazard. Come home right now, or you won’t be getting any macaroni and cheese for dinner tonight!

Reilly: No! Don’t take away my macaroni and cheese, mother!

Fouts: And here’s what this pathetic human being means about macaroni and cheese. There’s a dish called macaroni and cheese, and it comprises two things: macaroni and the cheese. Macaroni is essentially pasta. And here’s what I mean by pasta. Pasta is a dish from Italy consisting of dough made from durum wheat and water. And here’s what I mean by Italy. Italy is a country in the country of Europe, and it’s the one that looks like a boot on the world map. And here’s what I mean by boot. A boot, according to Google, is a study item of footwear covering the foot, the ankle and sometimes the leg below the knee. Keep in mind that people often wear two boots because they usually have two feet, but sometimes people have three feet or maybe even four feet. Three is greater than two, but not as great as four is compared to two!

Wolfley: MY FRIEND HAS EIGHT FEET. HE’S ACTUALLY A SPIDER, BUT HE’S MY FRIEND BECAUSE I HAVE LONG CONVERSATIONS WITH HIM AND NOW PEOPLE REMIND ME OF SPIDERS. KEVIN REILLY LOOKS LIKE A SPIDER WITH A CLOWN FACE PAINTED ON.

Reilly’s Mother: Clowns? Did I just hear clowns!? Kevin, come home this instant! You’re not allowed to be around clowns after your father was kidnapped by clowns! Stop playing with your friends and come home!

Reilly: But mother, I’m working!

Charles Davis’ Voice: Hey, Kevin, let’s discuss types of alcohol, Kevin. Let’s start with vodka, Kevin. How about beer, Kevin? That’s a good one, Kevin. What about gin, Kevin? Let’s discuss rum, Kevin. Let’s try out whiskey, Kevin. How about…

Reilly’s Mother: ALCOHOL! MY POO-PEE IS TOO YOUNG TO EVEN HEAR ABOUT ALCOHOL!!!

Reilly: WHERE’S CHARLES DAVIS’ VOICE COMING FROM!? I’M GOING TO KILL HIM AFTER UPSETTING MOTHER!!!

Reilly’s Mother: KEVIN, WHY ARE YOU USING SUCH HARSH LANGUAGE!? YOU’VE BEEN KIDNAPPED BY CLOWNS JUST LIKE YOUR FATHER WAS, HAVEN’T YOU!?!? I’M GOING TO KILL YOU CLOWNS!!!

Reilly: I’LL KILL YOU, CHARLES DAVIS’ VOICE! I’LL KILL YOU BECAUSE I’M NOT GETING MACARONI AND CHEESE FOR DINNER TONIGHT! We’ll be back after this!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: There’s no spread posted on this game because Andrew Luck’s status is unknown at the moment. Luck is expected to play, as he returned to practice, but concussions can sometimes be tricky, and it’s not completely certain that he’ll pass concussion protocol. For the sake of this write-up, I’m going to assume that Luck is given the green light.

Luck has a great matchup against the Jets’ secondary. Darrelle Revis has been awful this year, and he didn’t look any better following the bye. Sadly, he still might be the top cornerback on the roster. That’s how bad New York’s cornerback situation is. Luck will be able to torch the Jets’ corners with T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief, assuming the former is able to suit up. Hilton is more of an unknown than Luck at this point, but it sounds like the back injury he sustained on Thanksgiving is improving.

It’s imperative for Luck to be able to throw the ball as prolifically as possible, given that Frank Gore won’t find any running room against the Jets’ stout front. Pass protection could be an issue as well if center Ryan Kelly can’t go. Kelly was knocked out of the Thanksgiving game in the first quarter, but his outlook currently appears to be optimistic. Assuming Kelly is back under center, the Colts will have three solid linemen blocking for Luck in Kelly, Jack Mewhort and Anthony Castonzo.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Colts have some injury concerns on this side of the ball as well. Vontae Davis is banged up and hasn’t been quite himself, but the extra time off – nearly two weeks – could do wonders for his health. If so, he could do a decent job on Brandon Marshall, though I still would expect Marshall to do some damage.

Marshall won’t be overly dominant anyway because of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Though Fitzpatrick had a mostly decent afternoon against the Patriots, he’s so terribly inconsistent. The Colts have made some improvements to their defense, which will only get better if Trent Cole is able to return to action this week. I’m not saying Indianapolis’ defense is good, but it’s decent enough to contain Fitzpatrick.

While Indianapolis has improved its secondary, its run defense is still pretty bad, and I don’t trust the linebackers to contain running backs coming out of the backfield as receivers. Thus, Matt Forte and Bilal Powell could both have successful outputs.

RECAP: There is no line posted on this game, so I can’t issue a concrete selection. I imagine that this spread isn’t going to be too far off of what I projected, but I will say this: I think there’s major potential for the Jets quitting this week. They played their “Super Bowl” against the Patriots and lost, and so they have nothing to play for. The Jets have many high-priced veterans who happen to be bad for the locker room. We’ve seen them quit before – their previous appearance on Monday night at Arizona rings a bell – and so I would be hesitant to bet them. That doesn’t mean I like the Colts very much, but I am going to pick them.

Check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Colts opened as a pick ’em, but they’ve since risen to -1.5 or -2. I think I’m taking Indianapolis for a couple of units. I’m going against my projected spread, and there’s certainly no line value here, but I think the Jets could very easily quit, as they’ve done on a couple of occasions earlier in the year.

SATURDAY NOTES: Andrew Luck will play, but the Colts will be missing a couple of players on defense. Meanwhile, Nick Mangold will be back for the Jets. Still, I think the Colts are the play, as I could easily see the Jets quit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m on the opposite side as the sharps in this game, but that’s OK because that was also the case in the Lions-Saints contest. The pros are betting the Jets, and I can’t say I’m sure why. This line is right where it should be, so normally this would be a non-play for me. However, I think there’s a good chance the Jets could quit. We’ve seen it happen several times this year, and given that they lost their “Super Bowl” last week versus the Patriots, they may not be completely focused. Also, the Colts are healthier now, while the Jets will be missing Calvin Pryor. Muhammad Wilkerson will play, but he may not be 100 percent. I’m sticking with the Colts for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

The Jets just lost their “Super Bowl” to the Patriots. I have to wonder if they’ll have anything left.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

The public is leaning toward the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 67% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Jets are 18-4 ATS at home following a home loss in the last 22 instances.

Opening Line: .

Opening Total: .

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Jets 20
Colts +1.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 41, Jets 10

Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games
Dallas at Minnesota, Denver at Jacksonville, Kansas City at Atlanta, Los Angeles at New England, Houston at Green Bay, Miami at Baltimore, Detroit at New Orleans, Philadelphia at Cincinnati, San Francisco at Chicago

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Eagles +7.5, Redskins +8.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
I like this teaser a lot. Many who bet teasers usually take a team favored by six to 8.5 down to win by zero to 2.5, but I like to go the other way, taking underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 through a touchdown. I’ll be shocked if the Eagles and Redskins lose by more than one touchdown.

Moneyline: Chiefs +210 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$105

Moneyline: Lions +230 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$230

Moneyline: Rams +600 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Dolphins +160 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Bills +145 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline: Redskins +120 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16

NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22

Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19

NFL Picks - Feb. 12

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2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
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2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
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Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

NBA Picks Against the Spread

2024 NFL Draft Goals

2024 NFL Draft Potential Busts

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

2024 NFL Mock Draft

2024 NFL Draft Day 3 Sleepers

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2016

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