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Young Harry

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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_18early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 1 day(s) ago
As a Dolphins fan, so happy with the result; it was worth it, even if it puts us down the draft order; reckon everyone except Pats fans and people who lost money on it were rooting for the Dolphins; I thought weeks ago that the Pats were GONE, but put it down to my anti-Pats bias; now I reckon they will be gone in the wild card game against the Titans
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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2019
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 1 day(s) ago - hide
As a Dolphins fan, so happy with the result; it was worth it, even if it puts us down the draft order; reckon everyone except Pats fans and people who lost money on it were rooting for the Dolphins; I thought weeks ago that the Pats were GONE, but put it down to my anti-Pats bias; now I reckon they will be gone in the wild card game against the Titans
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Aurora Snowmo (Anonymous Poster)
11 month(s) 0 day(s) ago
@Young Harry  The Dolphins actually have fans?!?
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_18early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 1 day(s) ago - hide
As a Dolphins fan, so happy with the result; it was worth it, even if it puts us down the draft order; reckon everyone except Pats fans and people who lost money on it were rooting for the Dolphins; I thought weeks ago that the Pats were GONE, but put it down to my anti-Pats bias; now I reckon they will be gone in the wild card game against the Titans
6    1
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 1 day(s) ago
@Young Harry  PS: I only saw the highlights of the game and was stunned (as was Walter) at how DeVante Parker dominated Stephen Gilmore. Had I not known, I would have assumed Gilmore was some new guy the Pats were trying out - not the star CB.
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_18early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 1 day(s) ago
As a Dolphins fan, so happy with the result; it was worth it, even if it puts us down the draft order; reckon everyone except Pats fans and people who lost money on it were rooting for the Dolphins; I thought weeks ago that the Pats were GONE, but put it down to my anti-Pats bias; now I reckon they will be gone in the wild card game against the Titans


https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_16early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 7 day(s) ago
@chuckster  state of mind is critical - especially late in the season; EG Raiders last ever home game at the venue went poorly vs Jaguars, but they started well away from home in week 16 - playing with the freedom that relief brings - they were glad to put the "last home game" experience behind them and they overachieved. And, as I mentioned waaay down below about the Colts: they prepared all week for week 15 MNF with excitement...but then the week 15 Sunday results sunk their season. They played poorly because their week 15 game was ruined just before it started; then they were able to atone for the MNF shocking performance against a lowly ranked team and win HUGE - even if their points were scored in a atypical manner. Seahawks - they sat down at their bye week and ticked off 1 only easy win - a week 16 home game against the Cardinals; they were always a big chance to underperform in that one (though an outright loss was a bit of a shock). If I get any bright ideas for week 17, will let you know. Merry Christmas from a snowless and sunny Australia
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_16early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 10 day(s) ago
Unlike Walter, I am quite keen on the Colts; teams coming off a MNF absolute shocker have done well from 2013 onwards 12-3 ATS; The Colts were awful against the Saints, but their preparation was upset by the Sunday results; I can see them winning by 2 touchdowns plus for the home fans
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_16early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 10 day(s) ago
So glad the NFL finally listened to me and played game 1 for week 16 (the Thursday Night Football game) on a Saturday!
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_16late.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 13 day(s) ago
Because my Dolphins weren't going to make the play-offs, I decided to also cheer for two other teams this season - Bears and Browns; having single-handedly sunk their chances as well, I am now considering switching to the Bills and Saints. Happy to change my mind if someone offers a cash incentive (:
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_16early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 13 day(s) ago
Walter - my mate Henry Hindsight reckons that playing the last game at a stadium can be a downer - sort of like a last meal between a couple about to part ways. The whole thing may have been a burden to the Raiders. I suspect that this result may prove to be a false lead for week 16 games and I like the Raiders to exceed expectations vs Chargers
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_16early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 13 day(s) ago
I tried (unsuccessfully) to link to my previous post, so here is the gist: I did a rough check on MNF OT and it seems that teams under-perform after such an occurrence. The ATS is just slightly negative for both the winners and losers of MNF OT games the following week, but there are a couple of huge downers; winners of MNF OT tend to play badly 2nd half the following week; losers play bad the 1st half as a rule. COMMENT about it - I got 1 out of 4 right only with the Dolphins winning the first half in week 15. I realise that my sample size was too small (7) and I generally like to check the caliber of opponent - which I didn't do in this case. Apologies. The opponents in this instance were the Dolphins and Redskins - both fairly low in the rankings.
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_15early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 16 day(s) ago
I did a rough check on MNF OT and it seems that teams under-perform after such an occurrence. The ATS is just slightly negative for both the winners and losers of MNF OT games the following week, but there are a couple of huge downers; winners of MNF OT tend to play badly 2nd half the following week; losers play bad the 1st half as a rule.
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_15early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 20 day(s) ago
I had previously asked Walter to review his "look ahead" teams to see how they have gone ATS; The Texans surely gave a tick to the theory in week 14.
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_14late.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 22 day(s) ago
I explained last week that the Eagles maybe got distracted by Dallas losing on Thanksgiving and then dropped the ball against the Dolphins. Once more the Cowboys were kind enough to Philly to lose, but this time the Eagles will be on the ball; Eagles to win by 2 touchdowns plus!
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_14late.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide
I explained last week that the Eagles maybe got distracted by Dallas losing on Thanksgiving and then dropped the ball against the Dolphins. Once more the Cowboys were kind enough to Philly to lose, but this time the Eagles will be on the ball; Eagles to win by 2 touchdowns plus!
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Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 21 day(s) ago
@Young Harry  Humble apologies; I always want to apologize for getting things wrong; otherwise I am no better than the weather forecasters (who never apologize). I only saw from the final minute of regulation onwards. The OT drive was how I thought the whole game might go. Will have to read up and watch the highlights to see WWW (What Went Wrong); no excuses anyway; I will finish by telling you the NFL player I most readily relate to: Damon Harrison - don't look like him; no hope of ever playing like him; but I enjoy SNACKS!
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_14early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
Hey Walter, have you ever reviewed your “looking forward” teams and their ATS. It’s an inexact science because some teams are playing a game and obviously looking forward to the next game (TNF or a huge Divisional game), whereas others “might be looking forward”. I had a look at teams playing prior to their Thanksgiving Day game from 2010 to 2019. They were 34-22 ATS with 2 even and 2 teams eliminated from the analysis because they played each other and then they both played Thanksgiving Day. Top rated teams tended to have some big wins, with Patriots 2012, Panthers and Packers 2015, Vikings 2017 and Saints 2018 all exceeding expectations by over 15 points. Teams playing away before their Thanksgiving Day game did better than those playing at home (away 10-4 ATS with 1 even; home teams 25-18 and 1 even); the above figures are pretty positive for “looking ahead” in this small sample, but I am curious to see what the figures would be over entire seasons
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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2019
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 27 day(s) ago - hide
Hey Walter, have you ever reviewed your “looking forward” teams and their ATS. It’s an inexact science because some teams are playing a game and obviously looking forward to the next game (TNF or a huge Divisional game), whereas others “might be looking forward”. I had a look at teams playing prior to their Thanksgiving Day game from 2010 to 2019. They were 34-22 ATS with 2 even and 2 teams eliminated from the analysis because they played each other and then they both played Thanksgiving Day. Top rated teams tended to have some big wins, with Patriots 2012, Panthers and Packers 2015, Vikings 2017 and Saints 2018 all exceeding expectations by over 15 points. Teams playing away before their Thanksgiving Day game did better than those playing at home (away 10-4 ATS with 1 even; home teams 25-18 and 1 even); the above figures are pretty positive for “looking ahead” in this small sample, but I am curious to see what the figures would be over entire seasons
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Mark Briggs (Anonymous Poster)
11 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@Young Harry  what an ruin some made up excuse that can be used to bet against a team? There's zero edge with these teams looking ahead to next game. You just proved it Wished he would stop with this motivation crap, reminds me of a guy sitting at the bar
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_14early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@BabyBettor  I found this somewhere a few weeks ago; cannot quote source now: Home Favorites: 31-11 Straight / 21-19-2 ATS Road Favorites: 17-1 Straight / 15-1-2 ATS Home Underdogs: 9-8-1 Straight / 11-6-1 ATS Road Underdogs: 8-24 Straight / 14-18 ATS
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https://walterfootball.com/nflreview.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
Looks like the Cowboys are in "sack the coach" mode and that explains their performance. Neither being on top of the NFC East nor a blonde rinse can save Jason Garrett now.
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https://walterfootball.com/nflreview.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
I have a theory on the Panthers and Eagles. Panthers - Walter wondered how they would cope after the nail-biting loss to the Saints. I reckon that they tried to convince themselves that they would bounce back well and put a huge emphasis on a good start - they succeeded there. But then, like a cartoon character who runs off a cliff but takes a few seconds to begin to fall, it all came crashing down because they were, indeed, flattened by the loss to the Saints. Once it was virtually over, they were able to recover somewhat. Eagles - I reckon the team had a great Thanksgiving Day munching on turkey and watching their Div rivals in Dallas get rolled. It proved to be a distraction of sorts - especially as they has an easy kill against the Dolphins coming up; add to this their injuries and they managed to underperform markedly. I have seen this happen a few times (a team being distracted by the demise of their main rival and then under-performing themselves soon after). I would love to put it down to great improvement from my Dolphins but think it was more the Eagles having a shocker. Loved DaVante Parker + the trick play
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_13early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide
Happy Thanksgiving all from Downunder. The Ravens have beaten the good teams by over 10 and the others by over 20 in their 5 games from week 7. My take on them is to follow them as if they are on an unstoppable roll. Taking the lead from another sport in AFL, I see teams like the Ravens go on such rolls (Geelong 1989 and Collingwood 2010, but that won't mean much to the readers). They tend to outperform week after week, but then suddenly scrape in over the line against a significantly inferior opponent (either with a poor Q1 or a poor Q4). Once this happens, jump off them the following week. I expect the Ravens to cover and probably win by over 10 again
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Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
11 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
@Young Harry  Humble apologies for stuffing up on the Ravens; they won but failed to cover; now I am not sure if this was just a blip and the Ravens will next - or if this is a portent of a big dip
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_13early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago
Happy Thanksgiving all from Downunder. The Ravens have beaten the good teams by over 10 and the others by over 20 in their 5 games from week 7. My take on them is to follow them as if they are on an unstoppable roll. Taking the lead from another sport in AFL, I see teams like the Ravens go on such rolls (Geelong 1989 and Collingwood 2010, but that won't mean much to the readers). They tend to outperform week after week, but then suddenly scrape in over the line against a significantly inferior opponent (either with a poor Q1 or a poor Q4). Once this happens, jump off them the following week. I expect the Ravens to cover and probably win by over 10 again
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_13early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
Rupolph the back-up QB; Had to fill in for Big Ben; Got a few wins mid-season; Which was really good, but then; The Cleveland game he struggled; Rudolph found the going tough; Browns didn't let poor Rudolph; And his offence score enough; Then, third quarter, week 13; Tomlin came to say; Rudolph with your form so poor; Today you will play no more; Hodges was slightly better; Now it remains to be seen; Rudolph the back-up QB; Will he play in round 13?
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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2019
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago - hide
Rupolph the back-up QB; Had to fill in for Big Ben; Got a few wins mid-season; Which was really good, but then; The Cleveland game he struggled; Rudolph found the going tough; Browns didn't let poor Rudolph; And his offence score enough; Then, third quarter, week 13; Tomlin came to say; Rudolph with your form so poor; Today you will play no more; Hodges was slightly better; Now it remains to be seen; Rudolph the back-up QB; Will he play in round 13?
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chuckster 343 Posts (314 )
12 month(s) 1 day(s) ago
@Young Harry: lol. Yea, I get that to. GL going forward.
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_13early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago - hide
Rupolph the back-up QB; Had to fill in for Big Ben; Got a few wins mid-season; Which was really good, but then; The Cleveland game he struggled; Rudolph found the going tough; Browns didn't let poor Rudolph; And his offence score enough; Then, third quarter, week 13; Tomlin came to say; Rudolph with your form so poor; Today you will play no more; Hodges was slightly better; Now it remains to be seen; Rudolph the back-up QB; Will he play in round 13?
7    3
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
12 month(s) 1 day(s) ago
@chuckster  As a Dolphins fan, I need a myriad of ways to amuse myself
3    0


NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2019
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago - hide
Rupolph the back-up QB; Had to fill in for Big Ben; Got a few wins mid-season; Which was really good, but then; The Cleveland game he struggled; Rudolph found the going tough; Browns didn't let poor Rudolph; And his offence score enough; Then, third quarter, week 13; Tomlin came to say; Rudolph with your form so poor; Today you will play no more; Hodges was slightly better; Now it remains to be seen; Rudolph the back-up QB; Will he play in round 13?
7    3
time to sign 630 Posts (473 )
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago
@Young Harry  This was pretty good.
3    0


NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2019
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago - hide
Rupolph the back-up QB; Had to fill in for Big Ben; Got a few wins mid-season; Which was really good, but then; The Cleveland game he struggled; Rudolph found the going tough; Browns didn't let poor Rudolph; And his offence score enough; Then, third quarter, week 13; Tomlin came to say; Rudolph with your form so poor; Today you will play no more; Hodges was slightly better; Now it remains to be seen; Rudolph the back-up QB; Will he play in round 13?
7    3
chuckster 343 Posts (314 )
12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
@Young Harry: I got it from the get go man, pretty good stuff. GL going forward.
3    1


https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_13early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago - hide
Rupolph the back-up QB; Had to fill in for Big Ben; Got a few wins mid-season; Which was really good, but then; The Cleveland game he struggled; Rudolph found the going tough; Browns didn't let poor Rudolph; And his offence score enough; Then, third quarter, week 13; Tomlin came to say; Rudolph with your form so poor; Today you will play no more; Hodges was slightly better; Now it remains to be seen; Rudolph the back-up QB; Will he play in round 13?
7    3
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
@Young Harry  Sorry, I lost the meter when I posted it. The ";" = end of each line and it goes to the tune of Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_11early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
just musing that, with the Browns finally doing something in the red zone last week, it might release the pressure and they may find the end zone easier this week. If my theory is correct (not overly confident on this), then the likely outcome is for the Browns to fly out of the blocks to a healthy early lead and lead at the end of every quarter.
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Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
1 years 0 month(s) ago
@Codgson  Codgson - I didn't explain myself well enough. You are correct; they have been awful in the red zone, but they finally snared a red zone touchdown late in the game last week to win the game; so they go into this week with the relief that their most recent trip to the end zone resulted in a touchdown. Vaguely similar in a way to the Dolphins finally winning a game and excelling early the following week against the Colts (admittedly, only against Hoyer). It gives the Browns the confidence to go for it without the constant talk of the red zone yips hanging over them.
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_11early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
1 years 0 month(s) ago
just musing that, with the Browns finally doing something in the red zone last week, it might release the pressure and they may find the end zone easier this week. If my theory is correct (not overly confident on this), then the likely outcome is for the Browns to fly out of the blocks to a healthy early lead and lead at the end of every quarter.
1    3


https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_11early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
just musing that, with the Browns finally doing something in the red zone last week, it might release the pressure and they may find the end zone easier this week. If my theory is correct (not overly confident on this), then the likely outcome is for the Browns to fly out of the blocks to a healthy early lead and lead at the end of every quarter.
1    3
Codgson (Anonymous Poster)
1 years 0 month(s) ago
@Young Harry  The Browns did something in the red zone? They ran 8 plays from inside the 2 on one possession and ended up turning it over on downs, then 15 minutes later they ran 3 more terrible plays from inside the 3, lined up to go for it on 4th down, but false started and kicked the FG.
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_11late.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
1 years 0 month(s) ago
With SF playing ARI twice in 3 weeks, just wondering if anyone has done the stats on this; putting fundamental issues aside (player availability and tactics), I am suspecting that the higher ranked team (almost beaten week 10 away from home) would at their home ground totally smash the lower ranked team; had anyone studied this to deduce any trends?
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https://walterfootball.com/nflreview.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
We Dolphins fans have just said good-bye to Tua; and Joe Burrow as well, perhaps; the good news is that we are off to the Superbowl this year! Who can stop us after we just down Brian Hoyer? Jets and Bills aren't that good, Brady is getting old; and we only have to beat the Browns, Eagles, Giants and Bengals to finish 9-7, get a wild card and then 4 wins later we are Champions.
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Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
1 years 0 month(s) ago
@chuckster  I aim to amuse; season is too tough to bear otherwise
4    0


https://walterfootball.com/nflreview.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
1 years 0 month(s) ago
We Dolphins fans have just said good-bye to Tua; and Joe Burrow as well, perhaps; the good news is that we are off to the Superbowl this year! Who can stop us after we just down Brian Hoyer? Jets and Bills aren't that good, Brady is getting old; and we only have to beat the Browns, Eagles, Giants and Bengals to finish 9-7, get a wild card and then 4 wins later we are Champions.
4    0


NFL Game Recaps: Week 10, 2019
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
We Dolphins fans have just said good-bye to Tua; and Joe Burrow as well, perhaps; the good news is that we are off to the Superbowl this year! Who can stop us after we just down Brian Hoyer? Jets and Bills aren't that good, Brady is getting old; and we only have to beat the Browns, Eagles, Giants and Bengals to finish 9-7, get a wild card and then 4 wins later we are Champions.
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chuckster 343 Posts (314 )
1 years 0 month(s) ago
@Young Harry: That's pretty funny.
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https://walterfootball.com/nflreview.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
1 years 0 month(s) ago
Looks like no serious injuries from last Thursday night, which is good. Walter is against Thursday Night Football, but I disagree. However, the NFL needs to make one small change - the TNF games need to be played on a Saturday :)
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https://walterfootball.com/nflreview.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
1 years 0 month(s) ago
As a Dolphins fan, I can say that losing sucks; so was rapt to see them win on the weekend. Walter may be right in saying that the Dolphins are the worst team ever, but other teams are "stepping down" to challenge them now (through injury and / or lack of ability). Would still like the #1 pick, but seeing the Dolphins win and then the Patriots lose late topped off a great day for me. However, I do wonder about the wisdom of finishing last and getting the #1 pick. Does anyone know how many teams have done this and then quickly became successful? Seems like we will need the #1 pick and about 10 great trades to improve
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https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_08early.php
Young Harry 29 Posts (19 )
1 years 1 month(s) ago
Just wondering if anyone has thoughts about how the Redskins (especially, on a short break) and 49ers will recover from their very wet but quite short game? I suspect the Redskins might struggle on Thursday, but you locals might remember similar instances. Young Harry, Melbourne AUS
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2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14


2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27


 

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