This has to be the pick, and the Bengals won't mess this up. Perhaps there's a very slim chance they trade the pick if they got bowled over with an offer, but coming off the greatest season ever by a college passer (not hyperbole, given the output, the eye test, and the competition level), this is the slam-dunk selection.

This is another pick that is all-but-assured, barring a trade. I think it's more likely that a trade would occur here than at #1, but with Ron Rivera in tow, I have to believe he covets adding Young to his defense. The addition of Young would make their defensive front quite intriguing.

I've done so much flip-flopping with what Miami will do. Settling on Tua. Miami passed on Drew Brees once over injury concerns. Here's a young left-handed version of him. Will they make the same mistake twice?

Until hearing the actual details, I'll guess that Miami parts with #39.

Very late momentum that Wirfs is the favorite of Dave Gettleman, even though there's the Joe Judge connection with the Alabama coaching staff. Going to go back to Wirfs.

The Lions undoubtedly feel better about taking Okudah 5th as opposed to 3rd, getting the extra asset from Miami. Until we hear what the trade is, I'll say they get #39. Late chatter suggests that Matt Patricia prefers Derrick Brown, while Quinn favors Okudah.

I wouldn't rule out the Chargers passing on Herbert and going with an offensive tackle here. But I'll go to Herbert.

Matt Rhule had Haason Reddick at Temple, and perhaps Simmons would end up the pick over Derrick Brown. I'm a little worried that Simmons could slip a bit, though, and Marty Hurney may prefer to bolster the trenches.

TRADE! Some late intel here; Jay Glazer reported that the Falcons were trying to come up to #2 to get Chase Young, but were rebuffed by Washington. They are clearly hunting for a high-end talent, rightly or wrongly. If they came up from 16 to 8 it would seem like the target would be Henderson. Atlanta has to cough up its 2nd rounder, #47 overall; Arizona turns 8 into 16 and 47, and now recoups the 2nd Round pick it lost from the D-Hop trade.

TRADE! Tampa Bay wants to get the most polished RT to help Tom Brady, so they could trade up for Wills, who was Tua's blindside protector at Alabama.

While the Browns could trade down, I'm having a hard time keeping Thomas out of my top 10.

The last of the top 4 tackles, Becton, is still left. I believe the Jets are committed to taking a tackle early in this draft and can afford to pass on the big WR's because of the depth of this class at that position. It seems to me that they would take Becton.

The Raiders apparently prefer Lamb to Jeudy. OK, then.

Maybe Jeudy slips to the third WR chosen because of the prior meniscus surgery, and maybe Shanahan just wants to get the speed demon that is Ruggs on his team. Taking a chance that Ruggs is the pick and that they don't trade down. Could also see Philly try to trade up for Ruggs, though maybe the 49ers wouldn't want to deal with a potential conference playoff opponent.

After the move down, Simmons is still available. One of the talented defenders (Brown, Okudah, Henderson, Kinlaw, Simmons) is going to fall because of the run on offensive tackles, QB's, and WR's going before this pick, so the Jags opt for Simmons over Kinlaw.

With Jeudy left, Denver is perfectly fine with him. He's the precise route-runner, while Courtland Sutton is the physical YAC machine.

After the move down, the Cardinals have Kinlaw on the board. He could go higher than this, but there are also some medical questions about him. Still, if Arizona can come away with Kinlaw and #47, Steve Keim will have done VERY well.