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2019 NFL Mock Draft by Dom_Swenson - 3.16
Published at 3/30/2019 5:53:57 AM
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No, it doesn't really make sense to "give up" on your franchise QB after one year, especially when you didn't give him anything to work with. But at the same time, if you can get a mid first rounder from a team like the Redskins or Giants, you take that offer. Rosen isn't bad by any means, but the thing is, the Cards have a terrible O-line. Rosen is going to get killed and labeled as a bust like he already is, getting a guy like Kyler Murray simply fits the situation better. Murray has way more upside than Rosen. Deadly accurate, can evade tacklers, and knows how to scramble. The guy has Russell Wilson written all over him, and if teams could re-do the 2012 draft, Wilson is easily a top-3 pick if not #1 overall. Murray's biggest concern is toughness, he hasn't taken very many hits in his career. But people tend to think that it's a huge concern when it really isn't. These guys aren't going to truck people over, they're not going to run the ball every play. They're going to slide/get out of bounds when they need to and make the plays to get the 1st down. Murray is officially weighed in at 5-10", 207 pounds. Not ideal by any means, but this league is changing. Old school football fans don't see that which is why players like Murray is going to blow it up right in their faces. Bottom line is, Murray is an elite athlete with elite speed and very impressive tape. If the guy was 7 inches taller nobody would be saying anything bad about the guy, but regardless I think he's going to be an elite QB at the NFL level given time and I think he's the "new trend" we're about to see in QB's for the future.
Moving to a 4-3 defense works perfectly for the 49ers. Nick Bosa has the ability to be an elite DE in a 4-3 system, alongside Dee Ford and DeForest Buckner. I believe the 49ers will move on from Arik Armstead as his production was never really there, and slide Solomon Thomas to the inside. If Thomas and Bosa can find success, this could be looking like one of the better D-lines in the NFL on an upward trending team.
This Jets defense is re-building. So far, they have a young secondary and signed C.J Mosley to a big contract. But their main concern on defense is the D-line. Leonard Williams is playing well but he can't do it all, the Jets need to find a way to rush the passer better. Wiliams was one of the best defenders if not the best defender in college football. Having him on the D-line really puts this defense on the map, not quite elite but slowly getting there.
With the Raiders having obvious issues at rushing the passer, I think they go with the second-best DE in this class. I was torn between Ferrell or Josh Allen, but I think Ferrell is a better fit because Josh Allen is more of a 3-4 LB and the Raiders defense runs a 4-3. Last year the Raiders found a gem in Maurice Hurst, and they're clearly ok with their second DT's Johnathan Hankins and Justin Ellis who both received extensions recently. Arden Key is a work in progress but does have upside, so I think they roll with this new D-line and see how it goes. Believe it or not, I think this team has a bright future. All it takes is a couple of good drafts and spending their money wisely to put them back in playoff contention.
Not a very popular pick with most mocks I've seen. But I'm not afraid to go against other people's opinions. Last year I predicted the Browns would not take Sam Darnold and take Denzel Ward over Bradley Chubb, so far I'm 2/2 in my hot takes. I think the Bucs go CB here because their secondary is very mediocre. For the past few years they've had a less than optimal passing defense, and here's what they have to go against in their division. Michael Thomas for 4-9 years (assuming he gets an extension), D.J Moore from the Panthers, and the trio of Falcons receivers in Julio Jones, Mohammed Sanu, and Calvin Ridley. They need a guy they can rely on to cover these number one receivers. Greedy won't magically fix this secondary, but he's a great start.
Trading Odell Beckham shows me that this team is partially in a rebuild. I say partially because they have the pieces on offense besides quarterback, but their defense is really lacking. They could pull a Chiefs move and get an elite offense with a bad defense. You might be asking "Well why trade Odell if they want an elite offense?" reason is, Odell was making $20 million dollars, while they may have to eat up a lot of dead cap, they can use that money in the future to get themselves pieces on defense. Meanwhile they replaced Odell with Golden Tate. I understand that Tate is nowhere near on Odell's level, but let's not act like Tate isn't a great option as a WR1. Having fixed their offensive line for the most part, the Giants are looking at Tate, Sterling Shephard, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley as young elite weapons. Now they just need a quarterback to lead them.
This Jaguar team has a lot of potential to bounce back in 2019-2020. With Nick Foles as their new franchise QB, they have very few holes left to fill. Their receivers are ok, with Dede Westbrook, Marquise Lee Keelan Cole, and D.J Chark all being promising young receivers with potential under a better QB. But one glaring need on the offense is tight end. You could argue that T.J Hockenson is the better overall TE in the draft, which I agree with. But I have Fant going here because of his explosiveness. He is an immediate mismatch to what could be a deadly offense, I think his skill set fits this team better than Hockenson, although both are great TE's.
This defensive line is looking very good. With Trey Flowers getting a big contract from Detroit, and A'Shawn Robinson alongside Damon Harrison holding down that interior, they just need one more DE to complete the D-line. Rashan Gary may not have had as much production in his last year of college, but that was because he was injured and still gettig double teamed. That to me shows that he is an elite prospect, teams are scared to leave him one on one even when he's injured. Plus he crushed the combine so I think that solidified him as a top DE prospect. I think Gary would fill that final DE spot nicely and give Lions fans some hope for these coming years.
The Bills seemed to go all out to give Josh Allen some weapons on offense. Getting themselves 3 new O-lineman, 2 new receivers, a new TE, and a new RB. The only thing they really need is a true #1 WR. Metcalf fits that description perfectly, weighing in at 6'3", 228 pounds, he's the guy the Bills should want to complete this new receiving core and see what Josh Allen can do.
I know it's surprising that I have Josh Allen falling to #10, but Murray and Greedy just kind of pushed him down, but still an elite prospect who I think the Broncos are going to love at #10 overall. There's speculation that they would take Devin White at #10, but I think they wouldn't hesitate to take Allen if he manages to drop at 10. Allen had an insane amount of production in his last year at Kentucky. Allen racked up 88 total tackles, 21.5 tackles for a loss, and 17 sacks. Moving Bradley Chubb to DE and putting Allen to edge will give Denver a scary pass rush with Von Miller on the other side.
With a few more pieces, I really do think this Bengals defense can be good again. And I think Devin White is one of those pieces. White has the potential to be one of the best 4-3 LB's in the NFL, and will eventually replace Burfict. Great in coverage, a sideline to sideline LB, Bengals get a great addition to a young and improving defense.
Hockenson looks like one of the best TE prospects we've seen in a long time. His blocking is amazing, he's a great run after the catch TE, and he has great tape. Hockenson is already getting Rob Gronkowski comparisons, and I think he's definitely worth taking at #12 overall without it being a reach. Adding another weapon for Aaron Rodgers would be great for the Packers since they've already tried fixing the defense in free agency.
In my opinion, the Dolphins have the most holes of any team in the league right now. Most of their defense is patchy, their O-line isn't ideal, and they still don't have a quarterback. Believe it or not Dolphins fans, this is actually ok for now. But the Dolphins absolutely need to start re-building now if they want to be competitive. Once Brady retires in 2-4 years, it's a toss up of who gets the division. If the Dolphins draft right, spend their money well, and not overpay for anyone, they should be right back into it. I have Taylor here to replace Ja'Wuan James, who left in FA. If the "Tank for Tua" rumors are true (Which is likely because Ryan Fitzpatrick is their starter), the Dolphins need to give him some time in the pocket so he can make plays.
How does Ed Oliver make it to 14? I'll explain. Surprisingly, a big majority of these other teams have pretty good DT's/DE's. It's kind of weird to think about since they're picking so high and you'd think they would have terrible ones. But it's true, the only teams that would realistically take him over their glaring needs are the Giants, Bills, Broncos, and Packers. But I feel like I explained well enough why they need their players and I can see him dropping. But onto Oliver, this guy is an elite talent at the DT spot and can really give opposing lines a hard time. Not just that, but he has a superstar in Grady Jarrett next to him, and young and improving Takk McKinley. If Oliver has a great rookie season, the Falcons might consider making him replace Jarrett for the long-term. It's a win-win for the Falcons.
Let's just pretend the Cardinals traded away Rosen for next years 1st rounder. Sweat was probably a top-3 player at the combine, and at the pro day he was the star too. He went from projected late 1st rounder to early to mid first rounder, he's a high motored player who doesn't give up on plays, and has the speed and athleticism to move to a 3-4 OLB. A good fit in a 3-4 defense that's getting better by the year.
With the releasing of LT Matt Khalil, it's obvious that they need to find his replacement. Dillard is arguably the best pass-blocking lineman in the draft, with real potential to be a franchise LT. Cam Newton is coming off a shoulder injury, the Panthers should be looking into making sure it doesn't get aggregated again. Greg Little could be an alternative pick here, but Dillard seems like the safer pick to me.