PGA Bets for the 2026 Truist Championship:

PGA Bets for the 2026 Cadillac Championship:

PGA Bets for the 2026 RBC Heritage:

PGA Bets for the 2026 Masters:

PGA Bets for the 2026 Texas Open:

PGA Bets for the 2026 Houston Open:

PGA Bets for the 2026 Valspar Championship:

PGA Bets for the 2026 Players Championship:

PGA Bets for the 2026 Arnold Palmer:

PGA Bets for the 2026 Cognizant Classic:

PGA Bets for the 2026 Genesis Invitational:

PGA Bets for the 2025 Tour Championship:

PGA Bets for the 2025 BMW Championship:

PGA Bets for the 2025 St. Jude Championship:

PGA Bets for the 2025 Wyndham Championship:

PGA Bets for the 2025 3M Open:

PGA Bets for the 2025 British Open:

PGA Bets for the 2025 Scottish Open:

PGA Bets for the 2025 John Deere Classic:

PGA Bets for the 2025 Rocket Classic:

PGA Bets for the 2025 Travelers Championship:

PGA Bets for the 2025 U.S. Open:

PGA Bets for the 2025 Canadian Open:

PGA Bets for the 2025 Memorial Tournament:

PGA Bets for the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge:

It was nice to get our third winner of the year, even though Scottie Scheffler was just +500. We didn’t hit any of our top-10/top-20 bets from last weekend, but we managed to nail 3-of-4 missed cut props, all of which were plus money.

The next tournament is the Charles Schwab Challenge. Despite winning the PGA Championship, Scheffler is in this field. I normally don’t like to bet golfers coming off victories, but if there’s one golfer who can go back-to-back, it’s Scheffler, who has finished second, third, and second in his previous three Charles Schwab tournaments.

As with last week, I’m going to eliminate some golfers. I’m throwing out the ones who are putting poorly and struggle with accuracy and approach, both of which are instrumental at this course. Accuracy is very key at the Colonial Country Club because of narrow fairways and deep rough. Approach is extremely important as well. This sets up beautifully for Scheffler, who is first in the model by a mile.

Here’s the top remaining golfers of my model for the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Aaron Rai
3. Daniel Berger
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. J.T. Poston
6. J.J. Spaun
7. Andrew Putnam
8. Brian Harman
9. Brian Campbell
10. Tom Hoge
11. Harris English
12. Mark Hubbard
13. Thorbjourn Olesen
14. Matthew McCarty
15. Robert MacIntyre
16. Alex Smalley
17. Ryan Gerard
18. Sam Ryder
19. Ryo Hisastune
20. Joe Highsmith

Scottie Scheffler to win the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge +250 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
I know these odds suck, but we’re betting Scottie Scheffler to go back-to-back. Scheffler is in the zone right now, particularly with his putting, which has been great recently except for the RBC Heritage. He’s very accurate, and he’s the best approach player in the world. This course was made for him, which would explain why he’s gotten second, third, and second in his previous three trips to Colonial Country Club. In the model, he’s first by a country mile. The difference between him and the No. 2 golfer, Aaron Rai, is the same as the distance between Rai and the No. 7 golfer. So, at +250, we have to bet Scheffler because there’s a great chance he’s going to win again.

Betting 3 Units to win 7.5 (to win +250) at FanDuel/DraftKings Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Daniel Berger to win (without Scottie Scheffler) the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge +1800 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
I’m so certain Scottie Scheffler will win that the rest of our bets will be those without Scottie Scheffler, so perhaps we can get two winners this weekend. We’ll start with Daniel Berger, whose odds to win without Scheffler (18/1) are pretty close to his odds at other sportsbooks (20/1 to 22/1). Berger has second- and third-place finishes this year. He’s incredibly accurate off the tee, and his approach game is fantastic. He has lost strokes putting in his previous three tournaments, but his putting has been a net positive for the season.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 9 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +2200) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings


Aaron Rai to win (without Scottie Scheffler) the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge +2500 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Aaron Rai has just one finish in the top 10 all year. So, why do we love him so much this week? Rai is one of the most accurate golfers on tour, but he hasn’t been able to take advantage of this talent because most courses these days don’t have much of a missed fairway penalty. The Colonial certainly does, so Rai’s elite precision will be a huge edge.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 12.5 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +2500) at FanDuel/DraftKings Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


J.T. Poston to win (without Scottie Scheffler) the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge +3300 (FanDuel)
J.T. Poston has finished in the top 18 in three of his previous four tournaments, including the PGA Championship, where he came away with fifth place. This was a great finish for Poston, who fits all the requirements needed at the Colonial. He’s very accurate and does well with his irons, and his putting has been great over the past two months.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 16.5 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +3500) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Tom Hoge to win (without Scottie Scheffler) the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge +8000 (FanDuel)
I’m surprised to see Tom Hoge at 80/1 to win without Scottie Scheffler. He has two top-three finishes since March, and his accuracy off the tee has gotten better in that time frame compared to how shaky it was in January and February. Hoge is solid with his irons and putter, so he definitely has a solid chance to be very competitive at this tournament.

Betting 0.25 Units to win 20 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +8000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Top 10/20 Bets (including ties) at the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge

• Mark Hubbard to finish top 20 +360 (0.25 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
• Brian Campbell to finish top 20 +490 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
• Tom Hoge to finish top 20 +413 (0.5 Units) – ESPNBet

I’m not in love with many of the top-10 or top-20 opportunities this week, but these two look interesting. Mark Hubbard had a rough start to the season, but has played better lately. He has finished in the top 20 in three of his previous four tournaments.

As for Brian Campbell, he hasn’t finished in the top 30 since he won the Mexico Open back in February. However, his plus accuracy hasn’t really been a factor in tournaments since then. He’ll be able to put his accuracy to good use at the Colonial.

There’s a huge misprice on Tom Hoge to be in the top 20 on ESPNBet. Hoge is around +275 in all the other sportsbooks, but he’s listed at +375 on ESPNBet. What’s even better is that ESPNBet has a 10-percent profit boost for golf, so we can take this wager up to +413. Hoge has finished in the top 20 in four of the previous seven tournaments, so +413 is amazing value.

PGA Bets for the 2025 PGA Championship:

I said I wanted to play it safe last weekend because we had no data on the Philadelphia Cricket Club. It didn’t take very long to diagnose it, however, as it was all approach play. We placed a fourth-round bet on Seppulon Straka and won that, though we still had a losing weekend.

We’ve arrived at the second major of the season. As with the Masters, I’m going to bet the chalk again because there’s a huge difference between the top two golfers and the rest of the field. It’s not even close in my model.

Speaking of the model, I’m going to do things a bit different this week. I’m going to show you all of the golfers I haven’t crossed off as having no chance to win. I initally eliminated those who are putting poorly. I then removed golfers who don’t have a 0.8 power rating on Data Golf because Quail Hollow is very long and has some holes where great power will allow some golfers to cut corners. I then crossed off golfers who aren’t doing well with their irons because approach play is extremely important at this course.

Here’s the top remaining golfers of my model for the 2025 PGA Championship:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Bryson DeChambeau
4. Justin Thomas
5. Joaquin Niemann
6. Jon Rahm
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Wyndham Clark
10. Min Woo Lee
11. Stephan Jaegar
12. Tony Finau
13. Ludvig Aberg
14. Keith Mitchell
15. David Puig
16. Jordan Spieth
17. Viktor Hovland
18. Rasmus Hojgaard
19. Maverick McNealy
20. Thorbjorn Olesen
21. Taylor Moore


Scottie Scheffler to win the 2025 PGA Championship +500 (BetMGM)
Scottie Scheffler is the best approach player in the world, and he has good enough driving power to cut some of the corners I mentioned earlier. Putting has been his sole liability, but not lately. Excluding the RBC Heritage, Scheffler has been putting great since the end of March. Scheffler just set course records at the Byron Nelson, which might be a sign of things to come the rest of the year.

Betting 2 Units to win 10 (to win +500) at BetMGM


Rory McIroy to win the 2025 PGA Championship +515 (Bookmaker)
As we did at the Masters, we’re betting both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIroy to win because they’re both a cut above the field at an extremely tough golf course. I’ll be pretty surprised if someone other than them wins, save for one or two possibilities. Those would be Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas. I don’t have much interest in DeChambeau because his iron play is much worse than Scheffler and McIroy’s. Plus, he’s been bet down very aggressively and provides no value.

At any rate, McIroy looks great for this tournament because he has won four times at Quail Hollow. He knows this course like the back of his hand, and his great power gives him an incredible advantage. This could be the best season of McIroy’s career, so I’d like to bet him once again.

Betting 2 Units to win 10.3 (to win +515) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Justin Thomas to win the 2025 PGA Championship +2200 (DraftKings)
I mentioned that all the value disappeared with Bryson DeChambeau. We still have it with Justin Thomas, however. Thomas is having an incredible season with a victory and three second-place finishes. He won the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, so like Rory McIroy, he knows this course extremely well. His great driving distance and approach play give him a great chance to win, so he’s my favorite “second tier” golfer in this tournament.

Betting 0.75 Units to win 16.5 (to win +2200) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings


Min Woo Lee to win the 2025 PGA Championship +9930 (Bookmaker)
I’m adding this one after the show I had with the Golf Guys:



I already liked Min Woo Lee – he’s 10th in my model, thanks to his terrific driving distance – but I was alerted that he has looked great in the practice rounds, so I think he’s worth a shot at about 100/1.

Betting 0.25 Units to win 24.8 (to win +9930) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Wyndham Clark to win the 2025 PGA Championship +18631 (Bookmaker)
Here’s my favorite long-shot wager to win the PGA Championship. Wyndham Clark won the U.S. Open in 2023 and was able to prevail at Quail Hollow that same year, so he can clearly compete with the top golfers in the world in big-time tournaments like this one. Clark’s biggest strength is his great power off the tee, which is why he has done so well at longer courses. His approach play isn’t great, but it also isn’t bad this year. He has also shown that he can make up for any missed approaches with strong around-the-green play. It’s insane that Clark is priced at 186/1 on Bookmaker.

Betting 0.25 Units to win 46.5 (to win +18631) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Top 10/20 Bets (including ties) at the 2025 PGA Championship

• Patrick Cantlay to finish top 10 +280 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
• Wyndham Clark to finish top 20 +260 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Stephan Jaegar to finish top 20 +410 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
• Keith Mitchell to finish top 20 +300 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Top 10 Parlay: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy +134 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Patrick Cantlay is seventh in my model, but we’re not betting him to win because he’s Patrick Cantwin. However, Cantlay tends to finish in the top 10. He’s gotten a top-10 result in three majors dating back to 2022.

We discussed Wyndham Clark already. He’s a good value at +260 to finish in the top 20.

The last time Stephan Jaegar played at a long course in a major, he finished 21st. He has great power and should do well at Quail Hollow.

Keith Mitchell has a similar stat line to Stephan Jaegar, finishing 20th the last time he played at a long course in a major. Mitchell has been on fire lately, and he projects well at this tournament. I nearly bet him as a long shot, but I like Clark much better.

There’s a 30-percent profit boost on top-X finishes at the PGA Championship. We’re going to parlay Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy to finish in the top 10. McIlroy has finished in the top 10 in 10 of his previous 14 majors, while Scheffler has finished in the top 10 in six of his previous eight majors. If this holds up – and both are playing at a high level right now – then this hits 53.6 percent of the time. That means +134 is a great bargain.


To Make/Miss the Cut at the 2025 PGA Championship

• Brooks Koepka to miss the cut +165 (1 Unit) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Si Woo Kim to miss the cut +135 (1 Unit) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Will Zalatoris to miss the cut +136 (1 Unit) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
• Dustin Johnson to miss the cut +120 (1 Unit) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

I’m betting these instead of matchups, which I didn’t find appealing this week.

Brooks Koepka has sucked this year. I’ve heard rumors that there are family-related issues, so it would make sense that he’s struggling on LIV. If he is seldom finishing above 17th on LIV, how is he going to compete in much tougher fields at majors? He missed the cut at the Masters, and I believe the same thing will happen at the PGA Championship.

Si Woo Kim is a golfer with little power, so he doesn’t project well at Quail Hollow. His prior three finishes at this course are 16th, 43rd, and 37th, and now the field is stacked. Kim is putting very poorly, which would explain why he’s missed the cut in three of his previous six tournaments. He’s also missed the cut in three of his previous seven majors.

I’m adding two plays on Wednesday morning. The first is Will Zalatoris to miss the cut. Zalatoris is a shell of his former self since he underwent back surgery. He has missed the cut at his previous three majors, and his putting is atrocious right now. The other is Dustin Johnson, who is not a serious golfer anymore. Johnson used to be a great golfer, but he’s now 40, and he has missed the cut in four of his previous nine majors. He has just two finishes above 27th in crappy LIV events this year.


First-Round Leader at the 2025 PGA Championship:

• Keith Mitchell First-Round Leader +6600 (0.1 Units) – BetMGM

I don’t often bet first-round leaders, but BetMGM has a no-sweat token for first-round leaders, up to $10. If this bet loses, we’ll place the no-sweat money on an NFL exacta, which you can find on the NFL Futures Bets page.


Round 4 Bets at the 2025 PGA Championship:
To be posted Sunday

PGA Bets for the 2025 Truist Championship:

We’re coming off our second poor tournament in a row, and it came down to one decision: Whether to bet Scottie Scheffler. I thought long and hard about it last week. I nearly pulled the trigger despite the poor odds because Scheffler was the best golfer in the field by far, but his poor putting performance at the RBC Heritage made me wonder if he’d have issues at a birdie fest. It turns out that he would not. In fact, Scheffler broke course records.

Scheffler’s not in the field this week. Rory McIlroy and some other top golfers like Collin Morikawa are, but we won’t be betting them at this tournament because the PGA Championship is the following week. With a major so soon, I have to believe that McIroy and the other top golfers will be fine tuning their game.

We’ll be betting some longer shots this week, but I don’t want to go crazy here because we have no historical data on this golf course. The Philadelphia Cricket Club is known as being the oldest private country club in the United States, but it’s new to the PGA tour. What we know about the Philadelphia Cricket Club is that it’s a very short course with wide fairways. Neither distance nor accuracy should mean much here, but it sounds like the greens are incredibly challenging. Thus, we’ll be looking at great putters who do well with approach play.

Here’s the top 20 of my model for the 2025 Truist Championship:

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Justin Thomas
3. Denny McCarthy
4. Russell Henley
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Justin Rose
7. Collin Morikawa
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Sam Burns
10. Maverick McNealy
11. Patrick Cantlay
12. Ashay Bhatia
13. Viktor Hovland
14. Michael Kim
15. Daniel Berger
16. Seppulon Straka
17. Shane Lowry
18. Harrish English
19. Tom Hoge
20. Andrew Novak



Russell Henley to win the 2025 Truist Championship +3624 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Russell Henley has a victory on tour this year, but I wouldn’t consider him to be one of the elite major-chaser golfers like McIroy or Morikawa. However, Henley is still fourth in my model, thanks to his amazing putting and approach skills. Henley, who has five top-10 finishes in nine tournaments this year, should definitely be in contention to win in Philadelphia.

Betting 1 Unit to win 36.25 (to win +3624) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Sam Burns to win the 2025 Truist Championship +5500 (FanDuel)
We bet Sam Burns last week. He didn’t win – no one was beating Scottie Scheffler – but he finished in fifth place. Perhaps this is an indication that he can continue to golf at a high level at the Truist. Burns is an elite putter who will have a chance to succeed on very challenging greens.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 27.5 (to win +5550) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Maverick McNealy to win the 2025 Truist Championship +5691 (Bookmaker)
I’ve heard that the Truist might compare to the RBC Heritage’s Hilton Head. Maverick McNealy nearly won that tournament, finishing third. This was just one of McNealy’s several great performances this year. In 12 tournaments, he has finished in the top nine on five occasions, including three top-three outcomes. He’s a strong putter and performs well with his irons.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 28.45 (to win +5691) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Justin Rose to win the 2025 Truist Championship +7291 (Bookmaker)
Justin Rose hasn’t won yet this year, but he’s having a great season. He’s golfed in eight tournaments thus far, and he’s finished in the top eight on three occasions. He has two top-threes, including a second-place finish at the Masters when he lost in extra holes to McIroy. Rose is strong with his irons and has been putting incredibly well. If he nearly beat McIroy at Augusta, he can certainly do so in Philadelphia.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 36.45 (to win +7291) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Denny McCarthy to win the 2025 Truist Championship +7616 (Bookmaker)
Denny McCarthy is the best putter on tour, so if I’m right about the Truist Championship being decided on the greens, then it makes sense to bet him. McCarthy has improved his iron play as well this year. He finished fifth at the Genesis, and he’s placed in the top 18 in six of his 11 tournaments this year.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 38.1 (to win +7616) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Jacob Bridgeman to win the 2025 Truist Championship +10743 (Bookmaker)
Jacob Bridgeman, placing 22nd in our model, is our super long shot. He’s worth a small gamble at 107/1 because he’s the third-rated putter in this field. His other stats are pretty mediocre, but he has second- and third-place finishes this year.

Betting 0.3 Units to win 32.2 (to win +10743) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Top 10/20 Bets (including ties) at the 2025 Truist Championship

• Russell Henley to finish top 10 +230 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Maverick McNealy to finish top 10 +300 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Justin Rose to finish top 10 +410 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
• Denny McCarthy to finish top 20 +140 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

As mentioned earlier, Henley has been in the top 10 in five of his nine tournaments this year, so it seems great that we’re getting +230 on something that’s been close to a coin flip.

We’re getting great value with McNealy as well. He’s been in the top nine in five of his 12 tournaments, so +300 seems like a great price.

Another great price is Rose’s +410 to be in the top 10. This was another fact mentioned earlier as well, but he’s been in the top eight in three of his eight tournaments this year.

And finally, McCarthy has placed in the top 18 in more than half of his tournaments this year. His great putting makes him a safe option.


Matchups at the 2025 Truist Championship
These are for 72 holes.

• Denny McCarthy +105 over Davis Thompson (1 Unit to win 1.05) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
• Harris Enlgish -105 over Rasmus Hojgaard (1.05 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

Davis Thompson hasn’t finished higher than 10th this year, and he has placed in the top 20 on just two occasions. His putting has been atrocious, so it doesn’t seem like he’ll do well at this tournament.

We bet Rasmus Hojgaard last week, and he was a huge disappointment. Aside from team play, he’s finished above 22nd just once this year. Harrish English, the better putter, has a win this season to go along with several top 20s.


Round 4 Bets at the 2025 Truist Championship:

• Seppulon Straka to win the Truist Championship +195 (1 Unit) – FanDuel/Caesars Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

I said that we had no data on the Philadelphia Cricket Club. We now do, and it appears as though approach play means everything. Between Shane Lowry and Seppulon Straka, the two golfers tied at the top at -14, Straka is the better iron player, so we’ll bet him today.

FanDuel currently has a profit boost on a bet up to $50, giving us +200. Caesars, meanwhile, has Straka listed at +190. Average them together, and that’s how we get +195.

PGA Bets for the 2025 Byron Nelson:

We got crushed at the RBC Heritage. Scottie Scheffler had an early lead, but he blew it was some terrible putting. The only thing we won was a late fourth-round bet on Justin Thomas, but it’s not like we got good value at all.

Moving on to the Byron Nelson, I’m conflicted on whether we should bet Scheffler. On one hand, this is the worst field in which Scheffler will participate all year. He got fifth at the Byron Nelson two years ago, but he was at least battling the likes of Hideki Matasuyama, Jason Day, and Tyrrell Hatton. This field doesn’t even have guys of those caliber. On the other hand, this is one of the easiest courses on tour, so it’ll be a birde fest. Those who win birdie fests often putt the best. Scheffler was able to putt very well at the Houston Open and Masters, but he couldn’t sink a shot on the green to save his life at the RBC Heritage.

I think I’m going to look to live bet Scheffler at a better number than +300 (BetMGM) and instead focus on great value golfers who are strong at putting, driving the ball, and hitting with their irons. This is a long golf course with wide fairways, so the key metrics are approach play, driving distance, and putting.

Here’s the top 20 of my model for the 2025 Byron Nelson:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Stephan Jaegar
3. Sam Burns
4. Sami Valimaki
5. Rasmus Hojgaard
6. Jacob Bridgeman
7. Taylor Pendrith
8. Mackenzie Hughes
9. Harry Hall
10. Jake Knapp
11. Lee Hodges
12. Davis Riley
13. Jordan Spieth
14. Nicolai Hojgaard
15. Gary Woodland
16. Hayden Springer
17. Ryan Gerard
18. Ben Griffin
19. Ryan Fox
20. Taylor Moore



Sam Burns to win the 2025 Byron Nelson +3000 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Sam Burns is third in my model, yet he’s 30/1 at FanDuel and DraftKings. Burns can drive the heck out of the ball, though his approach play has struggled this year compared to last season. However, Burns’ iron play has improved lately compared to how it was in March. The main thing to sell you on with Burns is that he’s the best putter in this field. His great putting has led to a great track record at birdie fests, including this one. Burns finished second at the 2021 Byron Nelson, so perhaps he’ll win the tournament this year. Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (to win +3000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Stephan Jaegar to win the 2025 Byron Nelson +4500 (FanDuel)
I love betting Stephan Jaegar on long courses because he’s exceptional at driving the ball a long distance. He often putts well, and his approach play has improved by leaps and bounds this year. He outdueled Scottie Scheffler at the Houston Open last year, so he could do that again on a course that fits him better than it does Scheffler.

Betting 1 Unit to win 45 (to win +4500) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Jake Knapp to win the 2025 Byron Nelson +5500 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Jake Knapp finished eighth at this tournament last year, so he can certainly prevail at it this season. Knapp drives the ball a long distance and also is solid when it comes to putting and approach play. With third- and sixth-place finishes this year, Knapp is a nice bargain at 55/1.

Betting 0.75 Units to win 41.25 (to win +5500) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Rasmus Hojgaard to win the 2025 Byron Nelson +5550 (Bookmaker)
Rasmus Hojgaard and his twin brother Nicolai just finished second at the match play Zurich Classic, so perhaps that will carry over into this weekend. Rasmus Hojgaard has the fifth-best power of any golfer at this tournament, and he’s also solid at putting. Iron play was a huge weakness for him in the middle of the season, but he has apparently figured out what the issue was because he has gained strokes on approach in the previous three tournaments.

Betting 0.75 Units to win 41.83 (to win +5550) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Sami Valimaki to win the 2025 Byron Nelson +11000 (FanDuel)
Sami Valimaki, who finished fourth at the Houston Open about a month ago, combines very strong approach play and putting. Valimaki ranks fourth in approach play and eighth in putting among participating entrants entering this weekend. This gives him a good chance at taking down this tournament, and yet he’s priced at 110/1 at FanDuel.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 55 (to win +11000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Davis Riley to win the 2025 Byron Nelson +11000 (DraftKings)
Davis Riley’s odds are all over the place. He’s 66/1 at some books, and yet he’s 110/1 at DraftKings. I’ll gladly bet him there, as he’s been hot since the beginning of March. He has sixth- and seventh-place finishes, and he was even 21st at the Masters. Riley drives the ball a great distance and has done better with his irons lately after struggling with them early in the year. He’s also solid at putting.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 55 (to win +11000) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings


Aldrich Potgieter to win the 2025 Byron Nelson +20000 (ESPNBet)
TPC Craig Ranch is one of the longest golf courses on tour, so it would be foolish to not at least consider the golfer with the best driving distance in the field. That would be Aldrich Potgieter, an up-and-coming 20-year-old golfer. He finished second at the Mexico Open this year, which plays very similarly to this course. At 200/1, we have to bet the Poltergeist to win even though he’s 29th in our model.

Betting 0.25 Units to win 50 (to win +20000) at ESPNBet


Top 20 Bets (including ties) at the 2025 Byron Nelson

• Sami Valimaki to finish top 20 +300 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Davis Riley to finish top 20 +330 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Ryan Fox to finish top 20 +330 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Hayden Springer to finish top 20 +360 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Aldrich Potgeiter to finish top 20 +410 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

I’ve dicussed Valimaki, Riley, and Potgeiter already, so let’s get to the other two.

Ryan Fox is 19th in my model. He’s a well-rounded golfer who has performed well lately. He’s finished in the top 20 in two of his previous six tournaments, so +330 seems decent.

Hayden Springer is a bit higher in my model, ranking 16th. He also does everything rather well. He’s finished in the top 20 in two of his previous three tournaments.


Matchups at the 2025 Byron Nelson
These are for 72 holes.

• Rasmus Hojgaard over Tom Kim (1.06 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
• Hayden Springer -106 over Max McGreevy (1.06 Unit to win 1.) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

Hojgaard is an underdog to Tom Kim, and yet Kim hasn’t finished higher than 36th since the first weekend in February. Kim’s game has been in shambles the past three months.

I have a huge ranking disparity between Springer and Max McGreevy. I’ve mentioned that Springer is 16th in my model. McGreevy is in the 70s because he can’t putt at all.


Winner Without Scottie Scheffler at the 2025 Byron Nelson:

• Rasmus Hojgaard to win without Scottie Scheffler +1130 with 25% profit boost (1 Unit) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
• Sam Burns to win without Scottie Scheffler +2000 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
• Stephan Jaegar to win without Scottie Scheffler +2200 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

We are not winning our outright bets for this tournament because Scottie Scheffler is breaking course records. What we can do is double down on our top picks to win without Scheffler. There’s a 25-percent profit boost to use on golf at FanDuel to help us get a better number on Rasmus Hojgaard, who is only two strokes back.


Round 4 Bets at the 2025 Byron Nelson:
TBA

PGA Bets for the 2025 RBC Heritage:

We experienced some positives and some negatives from the Masters. Beginning with the positives, we won with Rory McIroy. It was quite the sweat at the end when McIlroy couldn’t seemingly drain a single putt longer than five feet, but his great approach shot on the first extra hole clinched the victory for him.

As for the negatives, well, we got almost everything else wrong. We got murdered fading Max Homa, while Shane Lowry’s eight-over fourth round crushed a potential top-10 bet that looked certain heading into Sunday. Data Golf had Lowry at 82 percent to finish in the top 10 once he birdied the first hole on Sunday, but the wheels completely fell off for some reason.

We now move ahead to the RBC Heritage, which is a very easy golf course for those who hit the ball well with their irons. Most golf courses either play to length or accuracy, but Hilton Head does neither. It’s a short course with narrow fairways, but the rough is negligible. Thus, we’ll be looking at golfers who excel at approach, around-the-green play, and putting.

Here’s the top 20 of my model for the 2025 RBC Heritage:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Russell Henley
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Patrick Cantlay
6. Justin Thomas
7. Shane Lowry
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Corey Conners
10. Bud Cauley
11. Robert MacIntyre
12. Denny McCarthy
13. Tom Hoge
14. Jason Day
15. Michael Kim
16. Seppulon Straka
17. Ryan Gerard
18. Brian Harman
19. Davis Thompson
20. J.T. Poston


Scottie Scheffler to win the 2025 RBC Heritage +485 (Bookmaker)
We don’t bet the chalk very frequently, but we did at the Masters, and we will do so at this tournament. Scottie Scheffler destroyed the field last year, winning by three strokes. Scheffler hasn’t been quite the same this year because his ball striking is down, which is likely the result of the laceration he suffered on his hand during Christmas. However, ball striking is not significant at Hilton Head. What matters most are Scheffler’s absolute strengths: approach and around-the-green play. When grouping those two elements, Scheffler is the best player in this field.

But it’s more than that. Scheffler has been putting better than he ever has in his career. His putting at the Masters was immaculate. Putting has always been the weakness of Scheffler’s game, but if this improvement is real, he will go on a tear when his hand fully recovers and his ball striking goes back to normal.

There are two other elements to this pick. The first is that many seem to be openly doubting Scheffler. The narrative is that he won’t win this year. Phil Mickelson said as much. I think this is ridiculous. Perhaps Scheffler won’t win, but he finished fourth at the Masters, third at the Genesis, and second at the Houston Open. Those are not poor results by any stretch, and if Scheffler is hearing this negativity, that will only motivate him more.

The second element is that I’m not excited about the rest of this field. Collin Morikawa’s approach play has actually been better than Scheffler’s this year, but he can’t putt to save his life right now. Russell Henley, third in my model, won recently and has lost strokes putting in the previous two tournaments. Tommy Fleetwood, fourth in my model, is also having major issues putting. Patrick Cantlay, fifth in the model, is a choke artist whose nickname is Patrick “Can’t Win.” Justin Thomas, sixth in my model, spent time at a spa during practice rounds at the Masters after blowing a three-stroke lead with three strokes to go at his previous tournament. Shane Lowry, seventh in my model, just shot eight-over in the final round of the Masters when he was in contention entering Sunday. He could be on a bender. Xander Schauffele, eighth in my model, may not be fully recovered from an injury he suffered a few months ago, though he had a good performance at Augusta. Corey Conners, ninth in my model, just had a heartbreaking Sunday at the Masters, blowing a chance to catch a choking McIlroy.

Given that everyone else at the top has some major flaws right now, we’re priced into betting Scheffler, which I wanted to do anyway. Scheffler is +360 at some sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel, but he’s +485 at Bookmaker. As I always say, it pays to have access to numerous sportsbooks so you can get the best number.

Betting 3 Units to win 14.6 (to win +485) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Jason Day to win the 2025 RBC Heritage +6094 (Bookmaker)
We need to bet some longer shots to pair with our Scottie Scheffler wager, and I like starting with Jason Day. The Australian just finished a respectable eighth at the Masters, marking the third time he has finished in the top eight this year. Day isn’t an amazing iron player, but he’s good enough to win at Hilton Head, especially when factoring in his superior around-the-green play. Day, like Scheffler, is also putting extremely well at the moment.

As I said with Scheffler, make sure you get the right price with Day. He’s 25/1 at Caesars, 33/1 at ESPNBet, and 35/1 at DraftKings. The 61/1 at Bookmaker is extremely appealing.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 30.5 (to win +6094) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Bud Cauley to win the 2025 RBC Heritage +9316 (Bookmaker)
I expected Bud Cauley to be available at 60/1 or so, but he’s 93/1 at Bookmaker, which is a terrific price. Cauley has been one of the hottest golfers on tour recently, finishing sixth, fourth, and fifth at his previous three tournaments. The sixth was at the Players, so it’s not like he’s been battling low-level competition. Cauley’s approach play has been off the charts, and he’s gaining strokes with his putting and around-the-green play.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 46.6 (to win +9316) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Tom Hoge to win the 2025 RBC Heritage +11552 (Bookmaker)
Tom Hoge’s odds are even more appealing than Cauley’s. Like Cauley, Hoge has been hot lately. He finished a solid 14th at the Masters, and before that, he got third at the Players and fifth at the Valero Texas Open. Hoge’s around-the-green play isn’t very good, but his approach play is fantastic. He has also gained strokes putting at the previous four tournaments.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 57.8 (to win +11552) at Bookmaker Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Ryan Gerard to win the 2025 RBC Heritage +17500 (ESPNBet)
If you thought the odds on Bud Cauley and Tom Hoge were insane, check out the 175/1 on Ryan Gerard. We bet Gerard a couple of weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open, where he finished second. He had a ninth-place finish the prior week. Gerard excels at approach play and putting, which gives him a good chance to compete for the victory at Hilton Head.

Betting 0.25 Units to win 43.8 (to win +17500) at ESPNBet


Winner Without & Top 10 Bets (including ties) at the 2025 RBC Heritage

• Patrick Cantlay to win without Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Ludvid Aberg +1400 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Patrick Cantlay to finish top 10 +160 (1 Unit) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Bud Cauley to finish top 10 +450 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Tom Hoge to finish top 10 +500 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
• Top 10 Parlay: Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay +592 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Patrick Cantlay might be Patrick Can’t Win, but he has a great history at this golf course. In seven appearances, he’s finished in the top seven on six occasions, and he’s been in the top three on five occasions! That’s why I’m betting him to be in the top 10 and to win without the top four golfers (mainly Scheffler).

Cauley and Hoge were discussed above. We’re getting some great value with them at +450 and +500, respectively.

I like getting almost 6/1 odds on my top-10 parlay. I don’t want to bet on Collin Morikawa to win this week because of his shaky putting, but he should be able to finish in the top 10.


Matchups at the 2025 RBC Heritage
These are for 72 holes.

• Jason Day +111 over Sungjae Im (1 Unit to win 1.1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
• Nick Dunlap +143 over Matthieu Pavon (1 Unit to win 1.43) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

Day is an underdog to Sungjae Im because Im just finished fifth at the Masters. Im, however, has struggled mightily with his approach. Since Feb. 2, Im has gained strokes just twice with his approach, which indicates that he’ll fare poorly at this tournament.

Nick Dunlap has improved his approach and around-the-green play lately, but the real reason for this bet is to fade Matthieu Pavon. The stinky Frenchman ranks at the very bottom of my model this week, thanks to his poor approach and utterly awful around-the-green ability.


Round 4 Bets at the 2025 RBC Heritage:
Patrick Cantlay to finish top five +350 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Justin Thomas to win the RBC Heritage -140 (1 Unit) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

This +350 line at FanDuel is profit boosted. Cantlay’s nickname is “Can’t Win,” but he always finishes in the top five at the RBC Heritage. He’s definitely worth a shot at +350.

I’ll have more on Sunday. I want to bet on Justin Thomas for karma purposes – he reported a penalty on himself on Saturday – but want to see if we get a better number than +240.

PGA Bets for the 2025 Masters:

Brian Harman didn’t grade out well in the model last week, so we did not have him winning the 2025 Valero Texas Open. We bet the runner-up, Ryan Gerard, but he wasn’t really in contention on Sunday. Sadly, we just missed Eric Cole finishing in the top 20 by just one stroke.

The Masters is up next. This is not typically a tournament to find some juicy long shots because it’s an extremely difficult golf course where some golfers just don’t have a chance to win. The Masters is long, so those who can’t drive the ball very far are at a big disadvantage. It requires elite iron play, so golfers who have a mediocre or worse approach game have no shot. Augusta National also requires strong around-the-green play, so that’s another factor that can weed out some golfers. Once you eliminate everyone, you realize that there are only 20-30 or so golfers who can win the Masters, which brings us to…

Here’s the top 20 of my model for the 2025 Masters:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIroy
3. Justin Thomas
4. Jon Rahm
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Joaquin Niemann
8. Will Zalatoris
9. Shane Lowry
10. Xander Schauffele*
11. Robert Macintyre
12. Bryson DeChambeau
13. Tyrell Hatton
14. Min Woo Lee
15. Tommy Fleetwood
16. J.J. Spaun
17. Davis Thompson
18. Russell Henley
19. Hideki Matsuyama
20. Seppulon Straka

*Schauffele is recovering from an injury and may not be 100 percent.


Scottie Scheffler to win the 2025 Masters +475 (ESPNBet)
I know betting the favorite to win may not be considered sharp, but I believe it’s the correct move in this instance. There’s some pessimism with Scottie Scheffler, as I’ve heard the narrative that he won’t win a single tournament this year. Scheffler hasn’t been at his best for most of the year, but that changed two weeks ago at the Houston Open when Scheffler was able to putt tremendously well. Putting is the sole weakness of Scheffler’s game, so if he has figured that out, much like he did around this time last year, then it will be very difficult to beat him.

Besides, this is Scheffler’s event. He’s No. 1 in the model despite not being atop his game for a reason. He checks all the boxes. He drives the ball a long distance. He’s the best approach player in golf. He’s a wizard around the green. And he also values this tournament over anything else. When he was arrested for that stupid traffic violation a year ago, he told the officer that he views the Masters as the most significant tournament on tour. He could have said the Tour Championship, or one of the other three majors, or the Players, or the Olympics, or the Ryder Cup, but he said the Masters. For this reason, Scheffler will be zoned in, and I want to bet the best golfer in the world when he’s getting hot and is extremely focused.

Betting 2.5 Units to win 11.9 (to win +475) at ESPNBet


Rory McIlroy to win the 2025 Masters +750 (Bookmaker)
OK, so if betting the favorite is chalky, what about betting the top two favorites? I don’t usually do this, but I really think the 2025 Masters will be a Scottie Scheffler versus Rory McIroy showdown on Sunday. I love this because we’re playing against narratives in both instances. For Scheffler, it’s that he’s having a down year. For McIroy, it’s that he can’t win at Augusta. I think this is nonsense. McIroy finished second three years ago. If he can finish second, he can definitely win. Two decades ago, there was a narrative that Phil Mickelson couldn’t win a major, but he finally broke through and ultimately prevailed in six of them.

I wouldn’t bet McIroy if he weren’t golfing well, but he’s been awesome this year. He has two tournament wins already, including one at the Players, and he recently finished fifth at the Houston Open where he was simply preparing for the Masters. As with Scheffler, the Masters means everything to McIroy. Given how locked in he is this year, I believe he has a great chance to prevail. Betting 1.5 Units to win 11.25 (to win +750) at Bookmaker Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Justin Thomas to win the 2025 Masters +2550 (Bookmaker)
It would be foolish of me not to bet the third-rated golfer in my model when he’s slightly north of 25/1. Justin Thomas was so close to winning the Valspar three weeks ago, but choked when he was up three strokes with three holes to go. Outside of that meltdown, Thomas has been stellar this year. He has regained his form, particularly when it comes to approach play. He has four top-10 finishes this year, including two seconds. And since 2020, he has two top-eight finishes at the Masters, including fourth in 2020.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 12.75 (to win +2550) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Joaquin Niemann to win the 2025 Masters +4000 (Bookmaker)
Joaquin Niemann is seventh in my model, yet he’s 40/1. He has two wins on LIV this year. He drives the ball a great distance and is usually a terrific approach player. He has everything you’d want in a 40/1 shot except the history of success at majors. Niemann has yet to finish above 16th in any major throughout his career. However, if this is the only reason people won’t bet him, then I will gladly do so. Niemann is only 26, meaning all of his major history has come at 25 or younger. He’s entering the prime of his career, so I don’t see why he can’t suddenly win a major or two. We’re all about destroy narratives this week, and this is another case where we might get to do that.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 20 (to win +4000) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings


Top 10/Top 20 Bets at the 2025 Masters
Patrick Cantlay to finish top 10 +312 profit boosted (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Shane Lowry to finish top 10 +250 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Robert Macintyre to finish top 10 +400 (0.5 Units) – Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars
J.J. Spaun to finish top 20 +230 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Stephan Jaeger to finish top 20 +360 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Patrick Cantlay’s nickname is Patrick Can’t Win, so perhaps this is another narrative to be destroyed. While Cantlay can’t win, he certainly can finish highly. In the past three years, he has three top-10 finishes in majors. He also has two top-five finishes this year.

If I had any faith in Shane Lowry’s putting ability, I would have bet him to win the Masters. Despite his inconsistent putting this year, however, he has four top-11 finishes. He also had a third-place finish at the 2022 Masters.

Bobby Macintyre is 11th in my model, yet he’s 4/1 to finish in the top 10 at Caesars. That’s too good to pass up.

J.J. Spaun has never finished in the top 20 of a major, but he’s only had six chances, and he was 23rd at the Masters a couple of years ago. Spaun is having a great year with two second-place finishes.

Stephan Jaeger was in consideration as a long shot. He drives the ball a long distance and his approach play has been solid this year. He’s finished third and sixth this year.




Matchups at the 2025 Masters
These are for 72 holes.

Mathieu Pavon -109 over Max Homa (2.18 Units to win 2) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Adam Scott -120 over Sungjae Im (1.2 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Jason Day -105 over Tony Finau (1.05 Units to win 1) – Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars
Max Homa to miss the cut -150 (1.5 Units to win 1) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
We’re fading Sungjae Im, Max Homa, and Tony Finau, whose games are beyond broken right now. Homa has been in a freefall since blowing a lead at the Masters last year. He’s missed the cut in six of his nine tournaments this year. Im has finished 57th or worse in five of his previous six tournaments. Finau is dealing with an injury and an off-the-course matter.


Round 4 Bets at the 2025 Masters:
Bryson DeChambeau to win the Masters +265 (1 Unit to win 2.65) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

PGA Bets for the 2025 Valero Texas Open:

Justin Thomas had a huge choke job two weeks ago when he blew a three-stroke lead with three holes to go. I suffered PTSD when Min Woo Lee hit the ball into the water on 16 last week to nearly ruin our 40/1 bet. Luckily, he held on and was able to prevail despite a late charge from Scottie Scheffler.

The Valero Texas Open is the final tournament prior to the Masters. We hit the winner here last year with Akshay Bhatia at 68/1. Can we win with another long shot? I like our chances, given that the top golfers in this field like Ludvig Aberg and Patrick Cantlay will be preparing for the Masters. I suspect Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Cantlay will treat this tournament similarly. If I had to bet on one guy with odds priced lower than 20/1, it would be Corey Conners, but the odds of 17/1 aren’t very lucrative. I could see myself betting Conners if he has a bit of a slow start.

Here’s the top 20 of my model for the 2025 Valero Texas Open, per request:

1. Tommy Fleetwood
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Akshay Bhatia
4. Denny McCarthy
5. Keegan Bradley
6. Corey Conners
7. Ben Griffin
8. Daniel Berger
9. J.T. Poston
10. Hideki Matsuyama
11. Lee Hodges
12. Tom Kim
13. Si Woo Kim
14. Bud Cauley
15. Alex Smalley
16. Ryan Gerard
17. Andrew Putnam
18. Doug Ghim
19. Ryan Fox
20. Eric Cole


Akshay Bhatia to win the 2025 Valero Texas Open +2500 (Bookmaker)
Can lightning strike twice with Bhatia? I don’t see why not. He’s the best golfer in my model priced at better than 20/1. He’s hot right now, especially with his iron play, which is the key element to winning at TPC San Antonio. He’s finished ninth or better in three of the previous four tournaments, which includes a third-place finish at the Players.

Betting 1.2 Units to win 30 (to win +2500) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Denny McCarthy to win the 2025 Valero Texas Open +3000 (FanDuel)
Denny McCarthy was the runner-up in last year’s Valero Texas Open. Bhatia had a huge lead to begin the final round, but saw it dwindle when McCarthy chipped in everything down the stretch. McCarthy eventually tied the score and sent the tournament to extra holes. His chances ended when he hit the ball into a very small creek to give Bhatia the win. McCarthy’s iron play has also been hot, resulting in some quality finishes this year. He was fifth at the Genesis and 14th at the Players Championship, so perhaps he can claim a victory in a tournament he nearly won.

Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (to win +3000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Keegan Bradley to win the 2025 Valero Texas Open +3100 (Bookmaker)
Speaking of hot golfers, Keegan Bradley has been exceptional this year. The 38-year-old has fifth- and sixth-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer and Sony Open, respectively. He also has two top-15s and a 20th-place finish at the loaded Players. His iron play is amazing, so he’s good value at 31/1, which can be found at Bookmaker.

Betting 1 Unit to win 31 (to win +3100) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Daniel Berger to win the 2025 Valero Texas Open +3800 (Bookmaker)
Daniel Berger missed all of 2023 with an injury. He returned last year, but was terrible until the end of the season. He’s been much better in 2025, as he has regained his prior form. The results have shown that, as he finished second at the Phoenix Open. Since then, he’s ended up 12th, 25th, 15th, and 20th. This is a good course for him because he’s an accurate golfer with improving approach and strong around-the-green play.

Betting 1 Units to win 38 (to win +3800) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Lee Hodges to win the 2025 Valero Texas Open +7469 (Bookmaker)
Lee Hodges has ninth-, 10th-, and 11th-place finishes this year. He’s an accurate golfer who excels with his irons, so if that sounds like he’d be successful at TPC San Antonio, you’d be correct. He had a sixth-place finish at this course two years ago.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 37.3 (to win +7469) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Ryan Gerard to win the 2025 Valero Texas Open +8572 (Bookmaker)
Ryan Gerard’s odds are all over the place. He’s 40/1 at Caesars, yet he’s as high as 80/1 at FanDuel and nearly 86/1 at Bookmaker. He’s obviously a terrible bet at Caesars, but 80+/1 is incredible value. Gerard just finished ninth in Houston even though Memorial Park was not a good course fit for him. Gerard’s iron play has been incredible lately, so he definitely has a shot to win this tournament.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 34.3 (to win +8572) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Top 10/Top 20 Bets at the 2025 Valero Texas Open
Lee Hodges to finish top 10 +500 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Ryan Gerard to finish top 10 +550 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Ryan Fox to finish top 20 +260 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Eric Cole to finish top 20 +320 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Top-20 Parlay: Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Akshay Bhatia, Denny McCarthy, Si Woo Kim +3464 (0.5 Units to win 17.3) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

I’ve discussed Hodges and Gerard already, so I’ll touch on the other two. Ryan Fox and Eric Cole are 19th and 20th in our model, respectively. I thought about betting Fox at 100/1 (Bookmaker), but his accuracy is so poor. However, he’s been hot everywhere else, and he finished 15th in Houston, so I like his chances of being in the top 20 once again. Cole, meanwhile, has four top-20 finishes dating back to last October. He’s gotten 15th and 20th in the previous two tournaments.

I’ve also decided to do a top-20 parlay this week. I love the chances of the first four golfers finishing in the top 20. Si Woo Kim, meanwhile, looks great for this course, but he never contends on a Sunday. Kim’s best golf courses see him constantly finish between 10th and 25th. For example, he finished 13th at TPC San Antonio a few years ago. I’d bet him to finish in the top 20, but those odds suck, so I like throwing him into this fun parlay.


Matchups at the 2025 Valero Texas Open
These are for 72 holes.

Akshay Bhatia over Hideki Matsuyama -102 (1.02 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Lee Hodges -101 over Kurt Kitayama (1.01 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

It’s interesting that Matsuyama would be the favorite over Bhatia, given that the former will be preparing for the Masters, while Bhatia won this tournament last year. Kurt Kitayama’s game has been a mess lately; he’s missed the cut in four of his nine tournaments this year.

FanDuel and DraftKings haven’t posted their matchups yet, so I may have more matchup picks later.

PGA Bets for the 2025 Houston Open:

Wow, what a choke job. We had Justin Thomas at 20/1 last week. He was having a great Sunday and went up three strokes with three holes remaining. Then, on 16, the meltdown began. He hit the ball into the trees and then a sand trap. Viktor Hovland birdied the same hole to force a tie. Hovland then took the lead, as Thomas bogeyed 18. We hedged with Hovland, but we would’ve won so much more money had Thomas not suffered a meltdown.

The Houston Open is next. This tournament will feature the top two golfers on tour, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, but I will not be betting either prior to tee time. This is a distance-over-accuracy course, which usually doesn’t benefit Scheffler, and it’s not like Scheffler is putting well right now. McIlroy, meanwhile, is coming off a win at the Players, and he’ll be using this tournament to prep for the Masters. I’m not opposed to value betting either at some point if we get a great number, but I don’t have any interest in either golfer at the moment.

Here’s the top 20 of my model for the Houston Open, per request:

1. Rory McIroy
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Davis Thompson
4. Stephan Jaegar
5. Min Woo Lee
6. Wyndham Clark*
7. Aaron Rai
8. Michael Kim
9. Maverick McNealy
10. Jake Knapp
11. Harris English
12. Jason Day
13. Alex Smalley
14. Sahith Theegala
15. Tony Finau*
16. J.J. Spaun
17. Jacob Bridgeman
18. Ryan Fox
19. Max Greyserman
20. Thomas Detry

* – I’ve heard rumors that Wyndham Clark and Tony Finau are dealing with injuries.


Davis Thompson to win the Houston Open +3700 (Bookmaker)
Davis Thompson, coming off a 10th-place finish at the Players, ranks third in my model. This is an excellent course for him, as Memorial Park requires two of three traits: great bombing, elite iron play, or amazing scrambling/putting. Thompson is proficient in all three areas. Approach is the weakest of the three, but he’s been much better in that regard in the previous four tournaments.

Betting 1 Units to win 37 (to win +3700) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Min Woo Lee to win the Houston Open +4000 (FanDuel)
Min Woo Lee is a great driver of the ball. He’s also great around the greens, and his putter is on at the moment. He’s weakest when it comes to approach, but he’s not horrible in that regard. Lee has finished between 11th and 20th in four of the six tournaments this year, so he’s been right on the cusp of contending for a win. Given how much this course suits him, he could get there this week.

Betting 1 Unit to win 40 (to win +4000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Stephan Jaegar to win the Houston Open +4500 (DraftKings)
Few golfers drive the ball nearly as well as Stephan Jaegar, who won the Houston Open last year. I find this price on Jaegar to be staggering because it’s not like he’s golfing poorly this year. Jaegar has third- and sixth-place finishes this season, and we know that this course is perfect for him. Jaegar is fourth in my model, so I love getting him at 45/1.

Betting 1 Unit to win 45 (to win +4500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings


Michael Kim to win the Houston Open +5426 (Bookmaker)
Many people bet on Michael Kim a couple of weeks ago at the Players when he was coming off a fourth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer. Kim proceeded to miss the cut. Now that people have jumped off the bandwagon, it’s time to get on, given that he’s eighth in the model. Kim has second-, fourth-, and sixth-place finishes this year. He projects to do very well at this course, and I love the 54/1 price we’re getting at Bookmaker because he’s 28/1 at several books and 35/1 at some others.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 27.1 (to win +5426) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Maverick McNealy to win the Houston Open +6000 (BetRivers)
Maverick McNealy has been inconsistent this year. He’s finished second, eighth, and ninth in three tournaments this season, but he also missed the cut in the previous two tournaments. However, this is a great course for him. McNealy’s weakness is accuracy, and Memorial Park doesn’t punish golfers for poor accuracy because of the wide fairways and short rough. McNealy drives the ball incredibly well, and he’s been mostly positive with his irons this year.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 30 (to win +6000) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers


Jake Knapp to win the Houston Open +9000 (Bookmaker)
I can’t believe Jake Knapp is 90/1 at Bookmaker. Knapp, ranking 10th in my model, matches up very well at this course. He drives the ball with great power, while his irons and putter are both excellent right now. Knapp’s biggest weakness is his driving accuracy, but as mentioned earlier, golfers are not punished for that trait on this course. Knapp has been very close to winning lately – sixth and 12th in two of the previous three tournaments – so he’ll have a good chance to break through this weekend.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 45 (to win +3600) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Harris English to win the Houston Open +9000 (FanDuel)
Harris English, ranking in 11th in my model, already has a win this year at the Farmers Insurance. It’s been two months since that victory, so English could be hungry again. This is a great course for English, who drives the ball very well and is solid with his irons.

Betting 0.4 Units to win 36 (to win +3600) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Top 10/Top 20 Bets at the Houston Open
Stephan Jaeger to finish top 10 +360 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Maverick McNealy to finish top 10 +400 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Jake Knapp to finish top 10 +550 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Ryan Fox to finish top 20 +330 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Danny Walker to finish top 20 +550 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

I’ve discussed Jaeger, McNealy, and Knapp already, so I’ll touch on the other two. Ryan Fox is in the top 20 of my model, while Danny Walker is 33rd. Both have finished in the top 20 in two of their seven tournaments this year. I wouldn’t like Walker so much at Fox’s price, but +550 is a very good value.


Matchups at the Houston Open
These are for 72 holes.

Si Woo Kim over Tony Finau -109 (1.09 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Michael Kim over Sungjae Im -103 (1.03 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

Si Woo Kim is not a power driver, but he does everything else well for this course. He can win this matchup easily if Finau is injured, as mentioned earlier. Sungjae Im’s game is in rough shape right now, so Michael Kim looks great at -103.

FanDuel and DraftKings haven’t posted their matchups yet, so I may have more matchup picks later.


Round 4 Bets at the Houston Open:
Scottie Scheffler to win the Houston Open +200 (2 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings (posted Saturday afternoon)
Scottie Scheffler to win the Houston Open +600 (0.75 Units) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Alejandro Tosti to win the Houston Open +1645 (0.5 Units) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Ryan Fox to win the Houston Open +2975 (0.25 Units) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Keith Mitchell to win the Houston Open +4200 (0.15 Units) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Scottie Scheffler to win the Houston Open +175 (2 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

PGA Bets for the 2025 Valspar Championship:

Collin Morikawa was great last week – if Round 3 was excluded. He shot five over on Saturday, so if it wasn’t for that, he would have tied Rory McIlroy and J.J. Spaun. Sigh. The good news is that we hit every single one of our matchup bets last week. We would have won money overall if it wasn’t for our Round 4 bets.

Next comes the Valspar Championship, where massive underdogs have won in recent years. Last season, Peter Malnati prevailed despite being 350/1 entering the tournament. There are many great golfers in this field, but no one in the upper tier unless you want to count Xander Schauffele. The problem with Schauffele, however, is that he doesn’t appear to be fully healthy. He had a rib injury a couple of months ago and seems to have returned prematurely. Perhaps we’ll get a better number on him down the road when he’s closer to being 100 percent, but we won’t be betting him as one of the top favorites.

The other top favorite, Tommy Fleetwood, is someone I have atop my model. However, at 12/1, he doesn’t provide very good value on a course with some major variance. I’ll be looking for a better number to bet him during the weekend.

Here’s the top 20 of my model for the Valspar Championship, per request:

1. Tommy Fleetwood
2. Justin Thomas
3. Shane Lowry
4. Seppulon Straka
5. Alex Smalley
6. Lucas Glover
7. Michael Kim
8. Andrew Putnam
9. Corey Conners
10. Ben Griffin
11. Sam Burns
12. Will Zalatoris
13. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
14. J.T. Poston
15. Xander Schauffele*
16. Jacob Bridgeman
17. Stephan Jaegar
18. Matt Kuchar
19. Beau Hossler
20. Bud Cauley

* – Xander Schauffele is coming off injury and may not be completely healthy yet.


Justin Thomas to win the Valspar Championship +2000 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Justin Thomas is 14/1 or 15/1 in many sportsbooks, but he’s 20/1 at FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s second in my model, thanks to his great iron play and scrambling, which are vital at Innisbrook. Thomas has been close to winning some tournaments this year, with second-, sixth-, and ninth-place finishes. On top of that, Thomas has a positive course history at Innisbrook, with two top-10 finishes in the past three years, including third place in 2022. I’m not a big course history guy, but it says something that Thomas finished highly when he wasn’t playing as well as he is this year.

Betting 1.25 Units to win 25 (to win +2000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Shane Lowry to win the Valspar Championship +3500 (DraftKings)
Shane Lowry’s odds are all over the place, with some books pricing him as low as 22/1. However, he’s 35/1 at DraftKings, which seems like an incredible bargain. Lowry has gotten 11th or better in three of his previous five tournaments, including second place at Pebble Beach. He was 20th last week, but had a rough start and finished strong. He is third in my model because of his great approach and scrambling. I worry about his putting, which tends to be inconsistent, but if he’s strong in that regard this week, he can definitely win.

Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Corey Conners to win the Valspar Championship +3500 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners has been on fire this year. He has third-, fifth-, and sixth-place finishes. His putter is hot right now, so he can definitely win this tournament. Conners’ strengths are accuracy and approach, which are two of the three vital attributes you need at Innisbrook. He’s as low as 20/1 at some books, but FanDuel has him listed at 35/1. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel




Alex Smalley to win the Valspar Championship +7000 (FanDuel)
My eyes popped out of my head when I saw the Alex Smalley 70/1 number because he’s 40/1 at some sportsbooks. Smalley ranks fifth in my model. He’s been on fire lately, coming through for us on a top-20 bet last week. He’s finished 21st or better in every single tournament this year. He profiles as the sort of golfer who wins this tournament as a long shot who is excellent around the green.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 35 (to win +7000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Lucas Glover to win the Valspar Championship +7000 (FanDuel)
OK, now my eyes have not only popped out of my head, but they’ve moved out of my house and settled into a nice cottage in the countryside. I can’t believe we’re getting 70/1 with Lucas “Automatic” Glover at FanDuel when he’s 33/1 at some sportsbooks. Glover is sixth in my model. He’s one of the most accurate golfers on tour, and he’s terrific at approach and scrambling. If his putter works, he can win any tournament that doesn’t require bombing, which is not the case at Innisbrook. Glover has two top-three finishes this year, including last week’s result, so he’s on the cusp of winning.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 35 (to win +7000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Andrew Putnam to win the Valspar Championship +17500 (ESPNBet)
In honor of Malnati winning last year, we need to bet a super long shot. How about Andrew Putnam? He has zero driving distance ability, but that’s not required at this tournament. Putnam is very accurate, and he’s great around the green, which is why he’s eighth in the model. He finished 11th at the Cognizant, so perhaps this is a sign that he can compete near the top of the leaderboard.

Betting 0.25 Units to win 43.8 (to win +17500) at ESPNBet


Top 10/Top 20 Bets at the Valspar Championship (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Lucas Glover to finish top 10 +450 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Alex Smalley to finish top 10 +500 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Bud Cauley to finish top 20 +330 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Bud Cauley is an inspiring story. He got into a car accident in 2018 that caused him to miss several years of golf. He looks like he’s finally back to full strength in the wake of his sixth-place finish last year. He’s in the top 20 of my model, so I like him at +290.


Matchups at the Valspar Championship (FanDuel/Bookmaker)
These are for 72 holes.

Sam Burns over Xander Schauffele +110 (1 Units to win 1.1) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Jake Knapp over Viktor Hovland +130 (1 Unit to win 1.3) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Jacob Bridgeman over Kurt Kitayama -118 (1.18 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

We’re going to continue to fade Schauffele until he proves that he’s back to full strength. We’re also going to fade Viktor Hovland, whose game is a complete mess right now. The same can be said of Kurt Kitayama’s short game, so I like Jacob Bridgeman over him.


Round 4 Bets at the Valspar Championship:
Victor Hovland to win +170 (2 Units)
Bud Cauley to win +1800 (1 Unit)
Victor Hovland to win +400 (0.5 Units)
Nico Echavarria to win +600 (0.5 Units)

Hovland is a hedge on our bets, and Cauley’s odds are ridiculous right now.

PGA Bets for the 2025 Players Championship:

Well, that blew. We bet Russell Henley at 28/1 at the Cognizant. He was the favorite at one point in the final round, but imploded at the 11th hole. We didn’t bet Henley the following week because the course wasn’t as friendly for him, and he was in a tougher field, and yet he prevailed, thanks to an eagle on one of the final holes. Couldn’t he have done that at the easier course against worse competition!?

Perhaps betting a non-winning golfer who nearly prevailed is the best course of action. As it so happens, the No. 1 golfer in our model qualifies as such. That would be Collin Morikawa, who is priced at 14/1. Morikawa is built for this course, TPC Sawgrass, which requires elite iron play, great scrambling ability, and accuracy to a lesser extent.

Here’s the top 20 of my model for the Players Championship, per request:

1. Collin Morikawa
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Russell Henley
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Justin Thomas
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Shane Lowry
8. Michael Kim
9. Rory McIlroy
10. Tony Finau
11. Ben Griffin
12. Hideki Matsuyama
13. Xander Schauffele*
14. Denny McCarthy
15. Robert MacIntyre
16. Seppulon Straka
17. Andrew Putnam
18. J.T. Poston
19. Nick Taylor
20. Greyson Sigg

* – Xander Schauffele is coming off injury and may not be completely healthy yet.


Collin Morikawa to win the Players Championship +1400 (FanDuel)
Hopefully we get a repeat of what happened last week with Henley. Morikawa was in the lead for most of Sunday. He was a substantial favorite at one point, but Henley got there with his eagle. Morikawa has been excellent this season with two second-place finishes. He’s on the cusp of prevailing at a tournament, and this course is perfect for him.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 21 (to win +1400) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Tommy Fleetwood to win the Players Championship +3000 (FanDuel)
Tommy Fleetwood is another golfer who has been on the cusp of winning. He finished fifth and 11th in his previous two tournaments. He also projects extremely well for this course. His iron play is elite, and he’s superb when it comes to accuracy and scrambling. He ranks fourth in my model, yet he’s 30/1 at FanDuel.

Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (to win +3000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Shane Lowry to win the Players Championship +4880 (Bookmaker)
Shane Lowry has enjoyed some high finishes at the Players Championship over the years, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. His elite iron play and scrambling give him a great chance to prevail. He’s finished second and seventh this year, so he’s another player knocking on the door.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 24.4 (to win +4880) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Michael Kim to win the Players Championship +7847 (Bookmaker)
Speaking of golfers knocking on the door, Michael Kim has been among the top finishers at every tournament since Feb. 9. His past five results have been: 4th, 6th, 13th, 13th, and 2nd. He’s done great work with his swing and projects well at this tournament.

Betting 0.4 Units to win 31.4 (to win +7847) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Ben Griffin to win the Players Championship +14150 (Bookmaker)
Here’s our super long shot, though Ben Griffin should definitely not be priced this highly. He’s having a great season with two fourths and a seventh. He also projects well for this course, sitting just outside of the top 10 of our model.

Betting 0.25 Units to win 35.4 (to win +14150) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Top 10/Top 20 Bets at the Players Championship (FanDuel/DraftKings)
I’m going to bet a half unit on each of these. Hitting one of these will make us money.

Shane Lowry to finish top 10 +330 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Michael Kim to finish top 10 +450 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Ben Griffin to finish top 20 +300 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Alex Smalley to finish top 20 +360 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Jacob Bridgeman to finish top 20 +450 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Andrew Putnam to finish top 20 +450 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

I have Lowry and Kim in the top 10 of my model, so getting them at +330 and +450 seems great. Ben Griffin, Alex Smalley, Jacob Bridgeman, and Andrew Putnam are all in the top 20, save for Smalley, but he’s 26th, and I like his number at +360.


Matchups at the Players Championship (FanDuel/Bookmaker)
These are for 72 holes.

Patrick Cantlay over Xander Schauffele +110 (1 Units to win 1.1) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Will Zalatoris over Viktor Hovland -120 (1.2 Units to win 1) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Shane Lowry over Sungjae Im -119 (1.19 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Denny McCarthy over Tom Kim -122 (1.22 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Alex Smalley over Byeong Hun An -103 (1.03 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

I’m mostly fading highly regarded golfers who are not playing well right now. Xander Schauffele is coming off injury, so I don’t expect him to perform well. Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, and Tom Kim look broken right now, and I have their opponents much higher in my model. Byeong Hun An is a horrible fit for thise couse. He’s 80 spots lower than Smalley in the model.


Round 4 Bets at the Players Championship:
I can’t believe how poorly Collin Morikawa collapsed in the third round. He entered the day with the best probability to win, per DataGolf. Yet, he imploded with a +5, which is very uncharacteristic for him.

Morikawa is too far behind to win, but we’ll be betting some other players:

0.5 units on Lucas Glover to win +1100 (Bookmaker – Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker) 0.5 units on Corey Conners to win +1600 (BetMGM) 0.25 units on Seppulon Straka to win +2200 (FanDuel – Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel) 0.5 units on Seppulon Straka top-five finish +210 (FanDuel – Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel) 0.5 units on Patrick Cantlay top-five finish +200 (FanDuel – Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel) 0.5 units on Collin Morikawa top-10 finish +220 (FanDuel – Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel)

Of the guys in the top four, I lke Lucas Glover and Corey Conners the most. Glover is a great fit for this course, but I was concerned about his age (45), so I didn’t bet him. We’ll make amends for that now. Conners had a third-place finish last week.

Our guy Seppulon Straka deserves some consideration as well. As one of the golf guys, Nuggets, tends to point out, Straka saves his best for rounds 2 and 4.

I like betting Straka and Patrick Cantlay to finish in the top five. Cantlay’s nickname is Cantwin, but he has two top-five finishes this year. Meanwhile, perhaps Morikawa can make amends for his ghastly third round by getting back into the top 10.

PGA Bets for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational:

We had a terrible Sunday at the Cognizant Classic. Three golfers of ours were in contention to win entering the final round. One of them, Russell Henley, was the betting favorite for about a half hour at one point. And then, he got to the 11th hole and completely imploded, ultimately finishing sixth. Furthermore, we had a bet on Joel Dahmen to finish in the top 20 and to beat Charley Hoffman. Dahmen was 13th entering Sunday and had a four-stroke lead on Hoffman. He had an even worse implosion, constantly hitting the ball into the rough down the stretch. Brutal beats.

We’re back to a talent-laden field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This takes place at Bay Hill, which is one of the toughest courses on tour. It exposes weaknesses, and golfers must be either top-tier elite in one of the three main categories (distance, approach, scrambling) or extremely well balanced in the three. Given the difficulty of this course, it’s no surprise that Scottie Scheffler dominated this tournament last year, winning by five strokes. Here’s the top 20 of my model for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, per request:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Justin Thomas
3. Rory McIlroy
4. Xander Schauffele*
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Ludvig Aberg
8. Maverick McNealy
9. Will Zalatoris
10. Tommy Fleetwood
11. Min Woo Lee
12. Collin Morikawa
13. Tony Finau
14. Adam Scott
15. Sam Burns
16. Davis Thompson
17. Stephan Jaegar
18. Shane Lowry
19. Cam Davis
20. Keegan Bradley

* – Xander Schauffele is coming off injury and may not be completely healthy yet.


Scottie Scheffler to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +406 (Bookmaker)
The odds aren’t great, but I’m betting Scottie Scheffler to win the Arnold Palmer. It’s no accident that he dominated this tournament last year. I don’t see why that wouldn’t happen again. Of course, there’s lots of variance in golf, so we’ll also be betting some of the longer shots, as well as Justin Thomas, but this is a perfect course for Scheffler because he has no liabilities that can be exposed. He’s also the best approach player on tour.

Betting 2.5 Units to win 10.15 (to win +406) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Justin Thomas to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +2800 (FanDuel)
Justin Thomas is the other top golfer I’m betting this week. He’s second in the model, yet he’s 28/1 on FanDuel. Thomas is having a great year with three top-10 finishes in five tournaments, including second place at the AmEx. He has great driving distance and approach play, and he’s also solid around the green. Thomas finished 12th at the Arnold Palmer last year, but wasn’t golfing as well back then as he is now. I don’t want to pass up on this value.

Betting 1 Unit to win 28 (to win +2800) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Maverick McNealy to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +6695 (Bookmaker)
Maverick McNealy is eighth in my model, so this is a great price. McNealy, like Thomas, has three top-10 finishes this year, including second at the Genesis. He’s stellar when it comes to driving distance and approach play. He’s not as good around the green, but with high ratings at two of the three key attributes, McNealy could definitely win this weekend.

Betting 0.4 Units to win 26.8 (to win +6695) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Will Zalatoris to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +7500 (FanDuel)
Will Zalatoris also excels at the proper attributes to win at the Arnold Palmer. We saw it last year when he finished fourth at this tournament despite not being 100 percent from his back injury. Zalatoris’ weakness is putting, which is not as crucial at this tournament. He’s ninth in my model, so he’s a steal at 55/1.

Betting 0.4 Units to win 22.3 (to win +5577) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Stephan Jaegar to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +16193 (Bookmaker)
When I wrote earlier that a golfer can win the Arnold Palmer by being top-tier elite in one category, one of the participants I was thinking of is Stephan Jaegar. The sixth-place finisher from the Mexico Open is one of the best bombers on tour. The thing is, Jaegar’s not bad when it comes to approach play or scrambling. He’s 17th in my model, yet he’s an unreal 162/1 at Bookmaker.

Betting 0.2 Units to win 33.4 (to win +16193) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Top 20 Bets at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (DraftKings)
I’m going to bet a half unit on each of these. Hitting one of these will make us money. Keep in mind that this is a 70-golfer field, so the payouts for top 20s won’t be as lucrative as usual.

Stephan Jaegar to finish top 20 +240 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Cam Davis to finish top 20 +280 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

I discussed Jaegar already. Cam Davis is also in the top 20 of my model. He’s finished in the top 20 in three of his five tournaments this year, including fifth at Pebble Beach. He’s a well-rounded golfer with no weakness.




Live Bets (FanDuel)
Golfers have been imploding all week at this tournament, and it could happen to the guys at the top on Sunday. I’ve decided to spray a bit on the following:

Jason Day +1000 (0.75 Units)
Tony Finau +3500 (0.2 Units)
Shane Lowry +7000 (0.1 Units)
Seppulon Straka +8000 (0.1 Units)

PGA Bets for the 2025 Cognizant Classic:

I made a couple of mistakes in evaluating the Mexico Open. First, I didn’t put enough emphasis on putting. Kurt Kitayama, the favorite, didn’t even make the cut because of terrible putting. Second, I didn’t evaluate how golfers had done this season and instead looked at their previous 25 tournaments. I will fix these errors moving forward.

Despite this, nothing we would have done at the Mexico Open would have mattered because some Korn Ferry Tour golfer named Brian Campbell won. The KFT is basically the minor leagues of golf, so we didn’t have any data on Campbell. His win was inexplicable because he didn’t have the traits to thrive at the Mexico Open.

Campbell, ironically, is a much better fit at this course, which requires elite iron play, plus quality accuracy and putting. Here’s the top 10 of my model for the Cognizant Classic, per request:

1. Russell Henley
2. Seppulon Straka
3. Denny McCarthy
4. Shane Lowry
5. Brian Campbell
6. Joel Dahmen
7. Andrew Putnam
8. J.J. Spaun
9. Lee Hodges
10. Lucas “Automatic” Glover

Russell Henley to win the Cognizant Classic +2500 (DraftKings)
I believe Russell Henley should be the favorite because he’s No. 1 in my model. He’s elite in all required categories. He’s had many top-five finishes dating back to last year, including fifth place at the British Open. He also finished seventh at the U.S. Open. He already has a top five this year, so he’s on the cusp of winning a tournament.

Henley’s odds are all over the place. He’s 16/1 at BetRivers, but you can get him at 25/1 at DraftKings. Please remember to shop for the best odds and get the promos, which you can via the link below:

Betting 1.2 Units to win 31 (to win +2500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings


Seppulon Straka to win the Cognizant Classic +2800 (FanDuel)
Seppulon Straka is our guy, so we have to bet him, especially because he’s second in the model. Straka already has a win this year, as well as a seventh-place finish. This course is perfect for him. Save for a disastrous, weather-related weekend at the Genesis, Straka’s irons play has been elite this season.

Straka’s odds vary like Henley’s. He’s 21/1 at Bookmaker and 22/1 at many other shops, but you can get 28/1 at FanDuel.

Betting 1 Unit to win 28 (to win +2800) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Denny McCarthy to win the Cognizant Classic +4000 (FanDuel)
Denny McCarthy comes in third in my model. I don’t know how much to read into this because we only have a small, five-tournament sample size, but McCarthy’s approach play has been so much better this year than it has in the past. He finished fifth at the Genesis, a tournament comprised of all the top golfers, so if he continues to be strong with his irons, he can prevail in this mediocre field.

Betting 0.75 Units to win 30 (to win +4000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Lee Hodges to win the Cognizant Classic +7500 (FanDuel)
We’re getting a great price on Lee Hodges. He’s ninth in my model, yet he’s 75/1 at FanDuel. Hodges has been golfing at a high level this year with two top-10 finishes in five tournaments. This course is perfect for him; he won a tournament at a similar course at the 3M back in 2023.

Betting 0.4 Units to win 30 (to win +7500) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel Lee Hodges has been scratched


Joel Dahmen to win the Cognizant Classic +13552 (Bookmaker)
Here’s our long shot of the week. Joel Dahmen has always been excellent when it comes to accuracy and iron play. His game has fallen apart when putting, but something has happened this year. Save for the Phoenix Open, Dahmen has been putting at a high level this year. Perhaps it’s a small, five-tournament sample size, but Dahmen may have found something with his putter. If so, he’ll be in the running to win after finishing sixth and ninth in two tournaments this season.

Betting 0.3 Units to win 40.65 (to win +13552) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Top 20 Bets at the Cognizant Classic (FanDuel)
I’m going to bet a half unit on each of these. Hitting one of these will make us money. Two or more would be fantastic!

Joel Dahmen to finish top 20 +400 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Sam Ryder to finish top 20 +400 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Andrew Putnam to finish top 20 +450 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Dahmen has two top-10s this year, so he can get into the top 20. Sam Ryder finished 21st at this tournament last year. He’s 14th in my model. Putnam is in the top 10 of my model. I don’t trust him to win, but he can have a good finish.




Matchup Bets at the Cognizant Classic (Bookmaker)
I will be betting some lucrative matchups moving forward. You can find these at Bookmaker.

Joel Dahmen over Charley Hoffman -121 (1.21 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

Hoffman is a million years old and can’t putt to save his life. Dahmen should be able to beat him easily.

PGA Bets for the 2025 Mexico Open:

We whiffed at the Genesis. I had the winner, Ludvig Aberg, fifth in my model, but I didn’t include him as a bet because of his history of choking at large events. He finally proved that he could win on a big stage. I wish he could have done that when we bet him at the Scottish Open last year when he blew a big lead!

The field is much weaker at the Mexico Open. This isn’t a bad thing, as we don’t have to hedge or have to worry about a +230 Scottie Scheffler win. Besides, we nearly had the winner of the Mexico Open last year when we bet on Sami Valimaki at 110/1 odds. Valimaki had a great chance to win until he hit the ball into the water midway through Round 4. Can we find a huge long shot again at the Mexico Open?


Ramsus Hojgaard to win the Mexico Open +2000 (BetRivers)
Ramsus Hojgaard is No. 1 in my model, and yet he’s 20/1 at BetRivers. Those of you who bet on Hojgaad with me last week may roll your eyes after his horrendous performance at Torrey Pines, but he was unfortunate enough to draw a start time where the weather conditions were absolutely miserable. I’m ignoring what happened last weekend.

To succeed at the Mexico Open, you need to bomb it off the tee, and you need to be great in your approach game. These are the two areas in which Hojgaard excels. He’ll be much better among a weaker field. Betting 1.5 Units to win 30 (to win +2000) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers


Kurt Kitayama to win the Mexico Open +2200 (FanDuel)
I like Kurt Kitayama almost as much as Ramsus Hojgaard. They are one-two in my model, with Hojgaard beating out Kitamaya by a bit. The slight difference in odds helps offset that.

Kitayama hasn’t played as well as Hojgaard this year, but he thrives in distance off the tee and approach, so this is a great tournament him, especially with the diminished field.

Betting 1.4 Units to win 30.8 (to win +2200) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers


Michael Kim to win the Mexico Open +2858 (Bookmaker)
Michael Kim is a well-rounded player, but he’s at his best when it comes to driving distance and approach. He’s also extremely hot. He finished second at the Phoenix Open and 13th at the Genesis Invitational, which had much tougher fields than what Kim will see at the Mexico Open.

Betting 1 Unit to win 28.6 (to win +2858) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings


Kevin Yu to win the Mexico Open +3500 (FanDuel/DraftKings/BetMGM)
Kevin Yu’s odds are all over the place. Some books like Caesars and Bookmaker have him listed at 25/1, but he’s 35/1 at FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM. I’m happy to get such a great number with Yu, who comes in fourth in my model. Yu finished 16th and 17th at the Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational, respectively, despite going against tough fields. This field is much easier for Yu, who thrives when it comes to distance and approach.

Betting 0.8 Units to win 28 (to win +3500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings


Nicolai Hojgaard to win the Mexico Open +4500 (FanDuel)
We’re going to bet on both Hojgaard twins. Ramsus is better than Nicolai, but both excel in the same areas. They both hit the ball extremely hard off the tee, and they’re both terrific with their irons. Nicolai, who ranks third in my model this week, finished 16th at the Masters last year, so he has what it takes in a field far worse than what we saw at Augusta.

Betting 0.8 Units to win 36 (to win +4500) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel


Antoine Rozner to win the Mexico Open +8661 (Bookmaker)
I have two long shots, and this is my favorite of the two. Antoine Rozner hasn’t played on the PGA Tour very much, but he finished 20th at the British Open two years ago. He hits the ball hard and tends to do well with his irons, so he’ll have a chance to win this tournament. He’s fifth in my model.

Betting 0.4 Units to win 34.6 (to win +8661) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Vincent Norrman to win the Mexico Open +10095 (Bookmaker)
I don’t like Vincent Norrman as much as Antoine Rozner. However, I can’t ignore that Norrman somehow came in sixth in my model. What’s helping Norrman here is that on top of his strong driving distance, his approach game has been better this year than it was in 2024, albeit on a small sample size. Perhaps Norrman has improved this area, and we’re going to be ahead of the game. It could also be possible that we’ve seen some fluky results, but I’m willing to take a shot.

Betting 0.2 Units to win 20.2 (to win +10095) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

PGA Bets for the 2025 Genesis Invitational:

Golf is back! Sure, we’ve had some tournaments already, but there wasn’t enough data to make informed bets. We now have that required data, so let’s get going with what hopefully is our third-consecutive winning season.

We begin with the Genesis Invitational, which was moved due to the California wildfires. It’ll take place on the Torrey Pines South Course, which is one of the most difficult courses on tour. The last time a tournament was held exclusively on this course, the winner had a score of -6 at the 2021 U.S. Open. The Farmers Open also takes place at Torrey Pines, but that’s played on the north course as well. The north course is much easier than the south course. There’s also expected to be rainy and windy conditions, which will make things even tougher.

Scottie Scheffler is the odds-on favorite at this tournament. He could always win, but Torrey Pines South favors elite driving distance in addition to approach and around-the-green play. Scheffler is No. 3 in my model, so I will not be betting him. Who are the top two golfers in the model? Let’s take a look:


Rory McIroy to win the Genesis Invitational +720 (Bookmaker)
Rory McIlroy has the best course fit for Torrey Pines South. He has top-notch driving power, and he’s terrific with his irons and around-the-green play. The only concern some may have is that he just won a tournament. However, check out how McIlroy has fared in tournaments a week or two following a tournament win dating back to 2012: 3rd, 24th, 1st, 10th, 22nd, 1st, 1st, 8th, 42nd, 36th, 9th, 9th, 49th, 5th, 6th, and 1st. Sure, he’s had some bad results, but he also has four victories in 16 tries. He has six top-five finishes and 11 top-10s.

McIlroy’s odds aren’t that great. The best I’ve found is +720 at Bookmaker. However, BetMGM and Caesars have 20- and 10-percent profit boosts. Granted, they limit you to $20 and $10, respectively, but every little bit counts when the odds are this low. Try to find other places to obtain bonus bets and profit boosts.

Betting 2 Units to win 14.4 (to win +720) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Justin Thomas to win the Genesis Invitational +2053 (Bookmaker)
Justin Thomas is second in my model. He’s top notch when it comes to driving distance, approach, and around-the-green play. Thomas underwent a funk that lasted nearly two years, but it appears as though he has snapped out of it. Dating back to Oct. 27, he has two seconds, a third, and a sixth. He’s poised to win, and he could do it this weekend.

Thomas’ odds are all over the place. He’s 14/1 at Caesars, but +2053 at Bookmaker. This just goes to show how important it is to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks so you can always get the best odds.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 30.8 (to win +2053) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Taylor Pendrith to win the Genesis Invitational +4000 (Caesars/FanDuel/DraftKings)
Taylor Pendrith has been on a tear since the second half of last season. He finished 14th at the tour championship, and he has gotten seventh and ninth in the past two tournaments. That seventh place was at Torrey Pines, so Pendrith has had recent success at this course. He’s 10th in my model with only around-the-green play weighing him down.

Betting 0.8 Units to win 32 (to win +4000) at Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars


Ramsus Hojgaard to win the Genesis Invitational +4269 (Bookmaker)
Ramsus Hojgaard is new to the PGA Tour, but he has what it takes to win. He just finished tied for 12th at the Phoenix Open, and he has the elite driving distance and approach play to prevail this weekend. He’s not as great around the green, but he still ranks fourth in my model right behind Scheffler. We’re getting him at a nice price of about 42/1. Make sure not to bet him at Caesars where he’s only 30/1!

Betting 0.75 Units to win 32 (to win +4269) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker


Min Woo Lee to win the Genesis Invitational +6000 (FanDuel)
Like Ramsus Hojgaard, Min Woo Lee finished tied for 12th at Phoenix. He’s similar to Hojgaard, except he’s elite in around the green in addition to driving distance rather than approach. His approach game isn’t bad, however, so he could win this tournament. He ranks sixth in my model, and yet he’s 60/1 at FanDuel and ESPNBet.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 30 (to win +6000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

To check out our 2024 PGA Picks, click the link.

To check out our 2023 PGA Picks, click the link.