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2026 NFL Season Preview: Washington Redskins

Walt — Sun, 26 Jul 2026 01:39:39 +0000

Washington Redskins

2026 NFL Season Preview:

Veteran Additions:
RB Rachaad White, WR Dyami Brown, TE Chig Okonkwo, DT Tim Settle, DT Charles Omenihu, DT DJ Davidson, OLB Odafe Oweh, OLB K’Lavon Chaisson, ILB Leo Chenal, CB Rasul Douglas, CB Ahkello Witherspoon, CB Amik Robertson, S Nick Cross.
Early Draft Picks:
ILB Sonny Styles, WR Antonio Williams. Redskins Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
RB Chris Rodriguez, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Deebo Samuel, WR Noah Brown, TE Zach Ertz, OT Trenton Scott, C Tyler Biadasz, DT Eddie Goldman, OLB Von Miller, OLB Jacob Martin, ILB Bobby Wagner, CB Jonathan Jones, CB Noah Igbinoghene.

2026 Washington Redskins Offense:
Expectations were high for Jayden Daniels entering the NFL, and yet he exceeded all of them as a rookie. A year after C.J. Stroud broke records for an NFL rookie quarterback, Daniels surpassed some of them. With a bolstered supporting cast, Daniels was supposed to skyrocket to the moon in his second season, but crashed back down to Earth instead with a very disappointing 5-12 record.

Injuries were the primary culprit for Daniels, who got hurt on multiple occasions last year and never seemed 100 percent for a full game outside of Week 1. Perhaps he’ll have better injury luck in his third year, though the offensive line will obviously play a big factor in determining that. It’ll definitely help if elite guard Sam Cosmi can remain on the field for more than nine games. Cosmi missed about half of 2025, but is healthy heading into this season. If he and Laremy Tunsil can stay off the injury report, Daniels will have two very high-end blockers in front of him.

The rest of the offensive line has its issues. Right tackle Josh Conerly didn’t perform very well in his rookie year, but he’s a recent first-round pick with plenty of potential. There’s a good chance he’ll improve now that he’s experienced. Conversely, there’s not too much upside with center Nick Allegretti and left guard Chris Paul, both of whom struggled last season. The Redskins lost last year’s center, Tyler Biadasz, but failed to replace him. This was an oversight by the front office.

Washington’s management failed to pair Daniels with an abundance of receiving talent as well. Terry McLaurin will return as the No. 1 receiver, and he figures to have a better and healthier 2026 campaign because he’s not holding out this time. The Redskins also signed athletic tight end Chig Okonkwo away from the Titans to replace Zach Ertz. That was it, however, as Deebo Samuel departed and wasn’t replaced either unless third-round rookie Antonio Williams is ready to contribute immediately. Unless the Redskins sign a veteran receiver, Daniels will be relying on the likes of Williams, Treylon Burks, and Dyami Brown, which is far from ideal.

Daniels figures to target Rachaad White heavily as well. The Redskins had grand plans for Austin Ekeler in that regard last year, but he suffered a devastating injury in Week 2 and was lost for the season. White will fill that role perfectly. He won’t do as much in the ground game, however, so the Redskins will be hoping that one of Jacory Croskey-Merritt or sixth-round rookie Kaytron Allen steps up. Croskey-Merritt was everyone’s darling fantasy sleeper weeks prior to the 2025 season, but never lived up to the hype. Allen isn’t very athletic, but he’s a skilled runner.

2026 Washington Redskins Defense:
The Redskins didn’t do very much to improve their offense this offseason. This was because they spent so much energy bolstering the defense. It’s difficult to blame them, given that they allowed the most yardage in the NFL last year.

Washington is projected to have between six and eight new defensive starters in 2026. This includes first-round rookie Sonny Styles. Chosen in the top 10, Styles is an elite athlete with great college tape. The Redskins have had big problems defending the middle of the field for years, but Styles will have a huge impact in helping to improve this area. Styles figures to start next to another new addition, Leo Chenal. Signed away from the Chiefs, Chenal played well in both run support and coverage last season.

There will be two new edge rushers as well. The Redskins struggled mightily to generate quarterback pressure last year, with no returning player logging more than 5.5 sacks. Dorance Armstrong, who had that figure, will be playing in a rotation with Odafe Oweh and K’Lavon Chaisson. Oweh and Chaisson both notched 7.5 sacks last season with the Chargers and Patriots, respectively. Oweh is the better of the two; he had 10 sacks in 2024 with Baltimore. Oweh and Chaisson aren’t great players by any means, but they’ll still be upgrades over what Washington possessed in 2025.

The only guaranteed new starter on the defensive line is nose tackle Tim Settle, who was signed over from Houston. However, newly signed D.J. Davidson and Charles Omenihu will compete for playing time. Settle performed well in a heavy Houston rotation last year. He’ll play next to Da’Ron Payne, a big defensive tackle who still thrives in both run support and the pass rush. Javon Kinlaw will also be in the mix, but he’s a former first-round bust who has never played well in the NFL.

As for the secondary, the Redskins figure to have at least one new starter at both cornerback and safety. The new corners are Amik Robertson and Rasul Douglas. Robertson performed well in Detroit. He’ll be stationed in the slot, as Trey Amos and Mike Sainristil were projected to operate outside. Both are young players who struggled last year because they had no support from the pass rush. Amos is a second-round pick from the 2025 NFL Draft, while Sainristil had a strong rookie campaign, so there’s definitely a chance that both players improve if the Redskins can generate more pressure this season. Washington signed Douglas, who thrived in Miami last year. He’ll challenge one of the young corners for work.

The new safety is former Colt Nick Cross, who is a stout in-the-box run defender. He’s not great in coverage, but he’s not completely lost in that regard either. He’ll start next to Will Harris, who is coming off a down year because he missed eight games due to injury.

2026 Washington Redskins Schedule and Intangibles:
The Redskins’ rich fan base doesn’t show up to games because they’re too busy dining at fancy restaurants and passing bills that only enrich themselves and extract wealth from future generations. This would explain why the team is just 56-85 as a host the past 16 years. However, they were 7-2 at home with Jayden Daniels in his rookie year, so perhaps they will have a strong home-field advantage for once.

Washington’s new kicker is Jake Moody. Any 49er fan knows how putrid Moody can be, but Moody did well for Washington after taking over for Matt Gay in the middle of 2025. Moody went 10-of-11, hitting both tries from 50-plus.

Tress Way was seventh in net punting in 2024 and sixth in 2025. He did well to pin the opposition inside the 20.

The Redskins have a mixed schedule. They have tough non-divisional opponents like the Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Jaguars, Texans, and Bengals. However, they also get the Colts, Titans, Falcons, and Cardinals.

2026 Washington Redskins Rookies:
Go here for the Redskins Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.

2026 Washington Redskins Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):

Quarterbacks	Offensive Line	Secondary
Running Backs	Defensive Line	Special Teams
Receivers	Linebackers	Coaching

2026 Washington Redskins Analysis: The Redskins advanced to the NFC Championship two years ago, upsetting the No. 1 seed Lions in the process. They were dismantled by the Eagles, and they’ve played horribly since. They could bounce back in 2026 if Jayden Daniels remains healthy and the defense improves with all of the new additions. However, there could be more of the same in 2026, given Daniels’ lacking durability and the holes that remain on the stop unit.

Projection: 8-9 (TBA in NFC East)

2025 Projection: 12-5. 2025 Actual Result: 5-12.
2024 Projection: 7-10. 2024 Actual Result: 12-5.
2023 Projection: 5-12. 2023 Actual Result: 4-13.
2022 Projection: 6-11. 2022 Actual Result: 8-8-1.
2021 Projection: 10-7. 2021 Actual Result: 7-10.
2020 Projection: 4-12. 2020 Actual Result: 7-9.
2019 Projection: 4-12. 2019 Actual Result: 3-13.
2018 Projection: 10-6. 2018 Actual Result: 7-9.
2017 Projection: 8-8. 2017 Actual Result: 7-9.
2016 Projection: 9-7. 2016 Actual Result: 8-7-1.

NFL Draft Team Grade: A Grade

Goals Entering the 2026 NFL Draft: The Redskins have just two picks in the first four rounds, so they need to draft very carefully. They somehow have to both find Jayden Daniels another weapon and improve their horrible defense that has issues at every level. Good luck, Washington.

2026 NFL Draft Accomplishments: Washington didn’t have much to work with, but it made the most of what it had. Of the four picks the Redskins had in the top 200, all of them scored in the “A” range. They drafted incredibly well, selecting either mega talents or great bargains.

The Redskins planned on taking Carnell Tate, but because he was off the board, that allowed Washington to obtain the better player, as Sonny Styles figures to provide a much-needed colossal upgrade in the middle of the defense. Then, in the third round, Antonio Williams was obtained to provide Jayden Daniels with the upgrade he likely thought he was getting at No. 7.

Washington continued to draft strongly after that, securing a third-round prospect in Joshua Josephs in Round 5, and a fourth-round prospect in Kaytron Allen in the sixth frame. Allen and sixth-round center Matt Gulbin will give Daniels more of a supporting system, while Josephs could bolster a weak pass rush. All of these elements were able to add up to a stellar draft class for Washington.

NFL Draft Individual Grades:

7. Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State – A Grade

Sonny Styles doesn’t provide positional value, but that’s out the window in this lackluster draft class. The Redskins are getting the best player on the board who fills a huge need for them. They should be able to cover the middle of the field for once, and Styles will be very useful against the Eagles’ offense.

71. Antonio Williams, WR, Clemson – A- Grade

I’ve had Antonio Williams in the second round in a bunch of my mock draft updates, so I obviously like that the Redskins were able to obtain him at this spot. Williams has play-making ability and runs good routes, so he should be able to develop into a solid No. 2 wideout for Washington.

147. Joshua Josephs, DE, Tennessee – A Grade

Joshua Josephs has the potential to be a designated pass rusher in the pros. I had him going at the end of the third round. Washington signed multiple defensive ends this free agency, but two of them were for one year, so Josephs will be a replacement in 2027.

187. Kaytron Allen, RB, Penn State – A Grade

Kaytron Allen is a physical runner who generates yards after contact. The Redskins don’t have much going on at running back, so Allen could see a decent number of carries as a rookie. Allen easily could have gone four rounds earlier.

209. Matt Gulbin, C, Michigan State – B Grade

Matt Gublin was a great blocker in school, but didn’t measure well athletically. He should be a fine backup in the NFL, and I thought he would go in this range, so this pick is fine.

223. Athan Kaliakmanis, QB, Rutgers – B- Grade

Athan Kaliakmanis over Garrett Nussmeier is wild. Kaliakmanis has plus intermediate accuracy and a quick release. He had a lot of buzz heading into the draft. He could be a developmental backup.

2026 NFL Mock Draft | 2027 NFL Mock Draft

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2027 NFL Mock Draft - June 16

NFL Picks - Feb. 9

NFL Power Rankings - Jan. 26

NFL Draft Links:

2026 NFL Draft Grades: Dallas Cowboys

Walt — Sat, 25 Jul 2026 01:45:26 +0000

Dallas Cowboys

2026 NFL Season Preview:

Veteran Additions:
QB Sam Howell, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, C Matt Hennessy, DT Otito Ogbonnia, DT Jonathan Bullard, OLB Rashan Gary, ILB Dee Winters, CB Cobie Durant, S Jalen Thompson, S P.J. Locke.
Early Draft Picks:
S Caleb Downs, DE Malachi Lawrence, ILB Jaishawn Barham, CB Devin Moore, DT L.T. Overton, OL Drew Shelton. Cowboys Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
WR Jalen Tolbert, OT Hakeem Adeniji, G Brandon Jones, C Brock Hoffman, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE Dante Fowler, DT Osa Odighizuwa, ILB Kenneth Murray, ILB Jack Sanborn, S Donovan Wilson.

2026 Dallas Cowboys Offense:
Dak Prescott has proven that he can play at an All-Pro level when everything is perfect around him. That was largely the case last year. CeeDee Lamb missed three games, and the team’s best offensive lineman was out for a single contest, but all else went according to plan. As a result, Prescott threw for 4,552 yards, 30 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions.

Things may not be so great for Prescott this time around because of George Pickens’ status. Pickens gave Prescott the dynamic No. 2 receiver he had needed for a long time, but a contract dispute could cause Pickens to be displeased and quit on the team like he did toward the end of 2025. Prescott will still have great weapons to aid him, namely Lamb and tight end Jake Ferguson, but Pickens took the offense to another level last year when he tried hard, so he’ll be missed if he’s not available for any reason. If Pickens lets Dallas down, the team will be looking for more out of Ryan Flournoy, who had a magnificent game against the Lions late in 2025.

Prescott also figures to be well protected again, which hasn’t always been the case during his tenure in Dallas. The best offensive lineman mentioned earlier was Tyler Smith, one of the top guards in the NFL. He and Tyler Booker figure to form one of the top guard tandems in the NFL; Booker was a first-round pick last year who had a terrific rookie campaign. It’s reasonable to expect Booker to improve his play now that he has experience. He and Smith will flank Cooper Beebe, another young lineman who thrived last year. Beebe, a third-round selection from the 2024 NFL Draft, has been a quality center thus far. He could also improve now that he has more experience.”

The tackle situation isn’t as promising for the Cowboys. Tyler Guyton is a recent first-round pick, but he has struggled mightily thus far in his professional career. Right tackle Terence Steele has been better, but only by default.

Despite the mediocre tackle play, Dallas was able to run the ball extremely well last year. Javonte Williams looked like an electric back for the Broncos during his rookie year, but wasn’t the same following his ACL tear. That changed last year when he switched teams. Williams eclipsed 1,200 rushing yards, and with all three interior blockers returning, there’s no reason to expect Williams to regress in 2026.

2026 Dallas Cowboys Defense:
The Cowboys finished second in yardage gained last year, ranking only behind the Rams. Yet, Dallas won just seven games. The reason for this was the putrid defense, which surrendered the third-most yardage in the NFL.

It’s safe to say that Micah Parsons was missed. The Cowboys had some players who were able to generate some quarterback pressure last year from Jadeveon Clowney and Dante Fowler, but this wasn’t a consistent phenomenon. They needed to obtain better pass rushers this season, and they did just that. They began by trading for Rashan Gary, who logged 7.5 sacks last year for the Packers. Gary has seemingly been around forever, but he’s just 28, so he’ll continue to play at a high level. He’ll be in a three-man rotation with second-year Donovan Ezeiruaku and first-round rookie Malachi Lawrence. Ezeiruaku showed some major potential last year by registering 36 quarterback pressures despite playing about half the snaps. Lawrence, meanwhile, was a late riser who should be able to contribute in his initial season.

The Cowboys received a huge boost from the defensive line at the trade deadline when they acquired Quinnen Williams. The former Jet was incredibly dominant on his new team, notching 32 quarterback pressures in only seven games with the Cowboys. Williams will start on the three-man defensive line with veteran Kenny Clark and newly signed Otito Ogbonnia. There’s also fourth-round rookie LT Overton, who could compete for some snaps. Clark was decent last year, but he turns 31 in October, so he could decline a bit. Ogbonnia, conversely, was rather lackluster for the Chargers in 2025.

Dallas also made changes to its secondary and linebacker corps. Three new players were added to the defensive backfield, including first-round rookie Caleb Downs. The Ohio State product is a dynamic talent and should be an instant upgrade for the Cowboys. He’s a natural safety, but could play in the slot as well because Dallas has two starting-caliber safeties, including newly signed Jalen Thompson. The former Cardinal is coming off a solid season, and he will start next to Malik Hooker, who was decent in run support last year.

The cornerbacks, meanwhile, received a boost in the wake of the Cobie Durant signing. Formerly of the Rams, Durant isn’t a great player by any means, but he’s certainly a big upgrade over the terrible players Dallas had at the position last year. He’ll start opposite DaRon Bland, who is coming off an injury-ravaged campaign. Bland should be able to rebound in 2026.

The new player in Dallas’ linebacker group is Dee Winters. Signed over from the Rams, Winters is much like Durant. He’s not very good at all, but he’s still a lot better than what the Cowboys had at the position last season. He’ll play next to DeMarvion Overshown, a very talented linebacker who has missed lots of recent action due to injury.

2026 Dallas Cowboys Schedule and Intangibles:
Brandon Aubrey is arguably the best kicker in the NFL. He was 36-of-42 last year, hitting a ridiculous 11-of-17 from 50-plus. In the past two seasons, he’s 25-of-34 from beyond 50.

Bryan Anger is coming off a down year. He went from ranking second in net punting average to 13th, and he didn’t place the ball inside the 20 very consistently.

The Cowboys have a mixed non-divisional schedule. They have to take on the Ravens, Texans, 49ers, Seahawks, Rams and Jaguars. On the bright side, they also get the Buccaneers, Cardinals, Colts, and Titans.

2026 Dallas Cowboys Rookies:
Go here for the Cowboys Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.

2026 Dallas Cowboys Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):

Quarterbacks	Offensive Line	Secondary
Running Backs	Defensive Line	Special Teams
Receivers	Linebackers	Coaching

2026 Dallas Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year. This prevented them from reaching the playoffs despite owning the NFL’s No. 2 offense. Dallas still has some holes on the defensive side of the ball, but it made some big improvements this offseason. As long as the Cowboys can maintain their offense close to the level they possessed in 2025, they’ll be in postseason contention. In fact, a deep run into the playoffs can’t be discounted.

Projection: 9-8 (TBA in NFC East)

2025 Projection: 7-10. 2025 Actual Result: 7-9-1.
2024 Projection: 9-8. 2024 Actual Result: 7-10.
2023 Projection: 10-7. 2023 Actual Result: 12-5.
2022 Projection: 8-9. 2022 Actual Result: 12-5.
2021 Projection: 6-11. 2021 Actual Result: 12-5.
2020 Projection: 8-8. 2020 Actual Result: 6-10.
2019 Projection: 7-9. 2019 Actual Result: 8-8.
2018 Projection: 5-11. 2018 Actual Result: 10-6.
2017 Projection: 11-5. 2017 Actual Result: 9-7.
2016 Projection: 10-6. 2016 Actual Result: 13-3.

NFL Draft Team Grade: A Grade

Goals Entering the 2026 NFL Draft: The Cowboys have an explosive offense, but couldn’t stop anyone last year. They added Rashan Gary to their defense, but still need one more superstar to make the appropriate improvement to give themselves a chance to make a playoff run in 2026. They’ll need to consider moving up for an edge rusher or Sonny Styles and then use some other picks to add another potential defensive starter or two.

2026 NFL Draft Accomplishments: Dallas had six draft choices prior to Round 7, and five of those were spent on defense. This couldn’t have been surprising to anyone, given how poor the Cowboys were defensively last year.

But were the picks good? Well, the Cowboys landed the top safety in the draft at No. 11, and then followed that up with a very speedy edge rusher, whom they obtained after trading down three spots. The Cowboys landed another talented edge rusher in the third round and then acquired a ballhawking cornerback in the fourth frame. Caleb Downs, Malachi Lawrence, Jaishawn Barham, and Devin Moore all scored “B” or better individually.

The Cowboys had to improve their defense, and that’s exactly what they did. It wasn’t a perfect draft, but Jerry Jones had a great weekend.

NFL Draft Individual Grades:

11. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State – B Grade

I don’t know why the Cowboys would move up to No. 11 when they had their choice of Caleb Downs and Rueben Bain. They just wasted two fifth-round picks, which isn’t the end of the world, but is still a poor use of resources. That spoils what would otherwise be an “A” pick because Downs is one of the top players in this class. The Cowboys desperately needed to find play-makers for their defense, and they certainly obtained one.

23. Malachi Lawrence, DE, Central Florida – A- Grade

I like that the Cowboys traded down three spots and were able to obtain a player they could have easily chosen at their natural selection. Malachi Lawrence is an explosive pass rusher who should be able to help Dallas get to the quarterback for a change. He’s a liability against the run, but Dallas needed a pass-rushing replacement for Micah Parsons.

92. Jaishawn Barham, DE/OLB, Michigan – A Grade

This is a great value pick for the Cowboys. I had Jaishawn Barham in the second round. He’s a linebacker who can generate a good pass rush. I wouldn’t be crazy about him dropping into coverage, however.

112. Drew Shelton, OT/G/C, Penn State – A+ Grade

The Cowboys needed to go defense, defense, defense, but they also needed depth on their offensive line. Drew Shelton is a perfect player for depth because he can play every single position. I thought Shelton could’ve gone much higher than Round 4 for that reason, so I love this selection.

114. Devin Moore, CB, Florida – B+ Grade

Devin Moore is a very tall cornerback with a knack for intercepting passes. This sounds great, but he has an extensive injury history. If he can get over it, the Cowboys could be getting a solid starter with this pick, but there’s definitely a major downside.

137. L.T. Overton, DE, Alabama – A Grade

LT Overton is a tough defender with good quickness and athleticism. I had him going in the third round, so the Cowboys are getting a steal and filling a position of need. It’s hard not to like this pick.

218. Anthony Smith, WR, East Carolina – C Grade

Anthony Smith is not someone I had in my top-400 prospects. The Cowboys probably would have been better off drafting players who can help their defense.

2026 NFL Mock Draft | 2027 NFL Mock Draft

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5 Things to Wait for Sports Industry in 2027

Walt — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 15:04:25 +0000

The sports industry enters 2027 with measurable momentum across broadcasting, technology, and competitive restructuring. This analysis isolates five verifiable trends worth monitoring, each backed by scheduling data, market signals, and structural shifts already visible in late 2026. Rather than speculate broadly, this article targets specific developments that will influence revenue models, fan engagement, and athletic performance throughout the calendar year.

1. Escalating Global Broadcasting Battles

Media rights valuations continue climbing at rates that outpace inflation, and 2027 accelerates the pattern. Streaming platforms directly challenge traditional broadcasters for premium content, forcing leagues to reconsider distribution architecture. Digital-first delivery reduces latency and expands geographic reach, converting regional audiences into global subscribers. As detailed in an editorial forecast at ESPN preview, the coming year concentrates attention on how networks defend audience share against on-demand competitors. Expect leagues to experiment with hybrid models that pair linear television with authenticated streaming, optimizing for both advertising yield and subscription retention. The engineering challenge is straightforward: deliver reliable, high-bitrate feeds to millions simultaneously without buffering degradation.

2. Data Analytics Reshaping Team Construction

Analytics departments have transitioned from experimental units to core operational infrastructure. In 2027, franchises across football, basketball, and baseball deepen their reliance on predictive modeling for recruitment, injury prevention, and in-game decision-making. Wearable sensors generate continuous biometric streams, enabling coaches to quantify fatigue and adjust workloads with precision. This data-driven approach challenges conventional scouting wisdom, replacing intuition with measurable probability. Teams that integrate these systems efficiently gain marginal advantages that compound across a season. The practical result is a competitive environment where information asymmetry, not merely payroll, determines outcomes. Front offices now compete for data scientists as aggressively as for athletes, signaling a permanent structural realignment in how rosters are engineered.

3. Expanding Fan Engagement Ecosystems

Supporter interaction is no longer confined to stadium attendance or passive viewing. Interactive platforms, fantasy formats, and prediction-based products convert spectators into active participants throughout every match. Fans increasingly follow live statistics, compete in secondary contests, and engage with real-time games that extend the entertainment window well beyond the final whistle. This participatory shift generates continuous engagement data, which organizations monetize through targeted content and personalized offers. The 2027 landscape rewards platforms that reduce friction between watching and interacting, creating seamless transitions across devices. Mobile-first design becomes mandatory rather than optional, since the majority of engagement now originates on handheld screens. Franchises treating audiences as collaborators, not consumers, capture disproportionate loyalty and recurring revenue.

4. Major Tournaments Driving Economic Impact

The 2027 calendar features high-density scheduling that concentrates commercial activity into defined windows. Continental championships, world-level qualifiers, and marquee league finals cluster to maximize sponsor visibility and ticket demand. Host cities anticipate measurable tourism increases, while broadcasters lock advertising inventory months in advance. These events function as economic accelerators, injecting capital into hospitality, transport, and merchandising sectors. The systematic challenge for organizers is capacity management: balancing infrastructure investment against post-event utilization to avoid stranded assets. Cities that plan for sustainable venue use extract long-term value, while those chasing prestige alone absorb costly liabilities. Expect 2027 tournaments to be scrutinized not only for athletic quality but for their return-on-investment profiles, a metric increasingly prioritized by public stakeholders.

5. Emerging Markets Reshaping Investment Flows

Capital continues migrating toward underdeveloped sports markets where growth ceilings remain high. Asian, Middle Eastern, and African regions attract franchise investment, infrastructure funding, and talent development programs. This redistribution challenges the historical dominance of European and North American centers, diversifying the global competitive map. Investors evaluate these markets using disciplined financial modeling, targeting demographic expansion and rising disposable income as leading indicators. The 2027 trajectory favors regions building youth academies and modern venues, since these assets appreciate as domestic leagues mature. Ownership groups deploy capital strategically, prioritizing markets with scalable fan bases over saturated territories. The result is a gradual rebalancing of influence, where emerging economies convert athletic ambition into commercial infrastructure that will define the next decade of global competition.

Systematic Outlook

These five developments share a common engineering logic: optimize efficiency, maximize measurable returns, and eliminate structural waste. Broadcasting fragments toward digital precision, analytics replaces guesswork with probability, and engagement ecosystems convert passive viewers into active participants generating recurring value. Tournaments function as calibrated economic instruments, while emerging markets redistribute investment toward regions with favorable growth mathematics. Each trend reinforces a broader principle that increasingly governs the sports industry: sustainable performance depends on data discipline, adaptive infrastructure, and audience-centered design.

Stakeholders who treat 2027 as a systems optimization problem, rather than a series of isolated events, position themselves to capture measurable advantages. The organizations that succeed will be those that integrate technology, financial rigor, and fan participation into unified operational frameworks. Monitoring these five vectors throughout the year provides a practical, evidence-based lens for understanding where value concentrates and how the competitive landscape evolves under mounting commercial and technological pressure.

2026 NFL Season Outlook: Breaking Down All 32 Teams

Walt — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 12:24:43 +0000

Another NFL season is approaching, and the league once again appears to have far more legitimate contenders than available playoff spots. Training camps are opening across the country, giving teams their first opportunity to answer the questions created by an offseason full of coaching changes, draft picks, trades, injuries and free-agent moves.

Some teams enter 2026 expecting to compete for the Super Bowl, while others are hoping young quarterbacks or revamped rosters can accelerate their rebuilding timelines. Before Week 1 arrives, here is a quick look at where all 32 teams stand.

It must be noted that any uncertainty makes preseason projections particularly interesting. Injuries, quarterback development and unexpected breakout players can radically alter the league within weeks. Fans interested in comparing futures, win totals and other available markets can also research established betting sites before the season begins.

For more detailed roster analysis, schedules, strengths, weaknesses and season predictions, check out our NFL Season Previews

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: As long as Josh Allen is healthy, Buffalo belongs in the championship conversation. The biggest question is whether the supporting cast and defense can perform well enough in January to finally push the Bills through a loaded AFC playoff field.

Miami Dolphins: Miami enters a new era after major organizational changes. There is enough talent for the Dolphins to surprise opponents, but establishing stability on both sides of the ball will be essential if they hope to contend immediately.

New England Patriots: New England’s rebuilding process accelerated dramatically with Drake Maye emerging as a franchise quarterback. The Patriots now face greater expectations, and continued development around Maye could keep them among the AFC’s most dangerous teams.

New York Jets: The Jets remain difficult to project. Their roster has intriguing young talent, but quarterback play and offensive consistency will determine whether they can make meaningful progress in a competitive division.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore has the talent to rebound from a disappointing 2025 campaign. Lamar Jackson remains capable of carrying an offense, and a healthier, more consistent Ravens team could quickly return to Super Bowl contention.

Cincinnati Bengals: Everything revolves around keeping Joe Burrow healthy. With Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase together, Cincinnati possesses one of football’s most dangerous passing attacks. Defensive improvement could determine whether the Bengals merely reach the playoffs or make a deep run.

Cleveland Browns: Cleveland remains in transition. Developing young talent and establishing a long-term answer at quarterback matter more than short-term expectations, though the Browns still have enough defensive ability to make life difficult for opponents.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh continues trying to maximize a veteran roster while navigating questions about its long-term direction. Mike Tomlin’s teams are rarely easy outs, but competing with Baltimore and Cincinnati requires consistent quarterback play.

AFC South

Houston Texans: Houston went 12-5 last season and enters 2026 with legitimate championship aspirations. The Texans have built an impressive roster around C.J. Stroud, and their defense gives them the ability to win games even when the offense struggles.

Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis faces significant pressure to establish stability at quarterback. The roster has enough talent to compete, but uncertainty at the sport’s most important position makes the Colts one of the AFC’s harder teams to forecast.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville finished last season with encouraging momentum and could be positioned for another step forward. Trevor Lawrence’s consistency remains crucial, but the Jaguars have assembled enough offensive talent to challenge Houston for the division.

Tennessee Titans: Tennessee remains focused on developing its young core. Immediate playoff contention may be ambitious, but progress from the quarterback position and recent draft classes would provide evidence that the rebuild is moving in the right direction.

AFC West

Denver Broncos: Denver has developed one of the AFC’s deepest rosters and should enter 2026 expecting to contend for the division. Strong defense and continued quarterback development make the Broncos particularly intriguing.

Kansas City Chiefs: Betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid is rarely wise. Kansas City may no longer appear invincible, but its championship experience ensures the Chiefs remain dangerous whenever they reach the postseason.

Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers have the quarterback and coaching necessary to contend, but injuries and offensive-line concerns could determine their ceiling. If Justin Herbert receives adequate protection, Los Angeles can challenge anyone.

Las Vegas Raiders: Las Vegas begins another attempt to establish long-term stability. The Raiders have promising pieces, but their immediate success depends heavily on how quickly a reworked offense comes together.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: Dallas remains talented enough to contend when healthy, but translating regular-season ability into postseason success remains the challenge. Dak Prescott’s health and defensive consistency will be critical.

New York Giants: The Giants continue searching for sustainable offensive improvement. Their defense contains intriguing talent, but quarterback development will largely determine whether they can escape the bottom half of the NFC.

Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia remains one of the NFC’s most complete teams. A powerful roster, strong offensive line and proven quarterback give the Eagles a legitimate opportunity to contend for another championship.

Washington Commanders: Washington’s rapid rise has changed expectations. With Jayden Daniels providing dynamic quarterback play, the Commanders now enter seasons expecting to compete rather than rebuild.

NFC North

Chicago Bears: Chicago’s young offensive foundation makes the Bears fascinating. Continued growth from Caleb Williams could transform them from an emerging team into a legitimate playoff threat.

Detroit Lions: Detroit remains loaded with offensive talent and should continue competing near the top of the NFC. Staying healthy and maintaining defensive consistency will determine whether the Lions can make another serious championship push.

Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love gives Green Bay a quarterback capable of leading a contender. The Packers’ young roster has substantial upside, making them dangerous if their defense and skill-position players take another step.

Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota enters 2026 with uncertainty but enough talent to remain competitive. Quarterback performance will ultimately dictate whether the Vikings challenge for the playoffs or fall behind in a difficult division.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta has invested heavily in building a young roster capable of eventually controlling the division. Quarterback development remains the defining storyline.

Carolina Panthers: Carolina’s rebuilding effort continues, but there are reasons for optimism if its young players progress. Establishing a reliable offense would represent an important step forward.

New Orleans Saints: New Orleans could be a sleeper after showing improvement late last season. The Saints have enough young talent to outperform expectations if their offense continues developing.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay remains one of the division’s most established teams. Veteran leadership and offensive continuity give the Buccaneers a realistic chance to remain in the playoff hunt.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals: Arizona continues reshaping its roster and identity. The Cardinals need greater consistency on both sides of the ball before they can seriously challenge the division’s elite.

Los Angeles Rams: The Rams remain firmly in win-now mode. Their veteran core and aggressive roster construction make them one of the NFC’s most interesting championship contenders.

San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco’s ceiling remains high, but health has become an annual concern. If their stars stay on the field, the 49ers possess enough talent to return to the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks: Seattle enters 2026 as one of the NFC’s teams to beat after reaching the sport’s highest level last season. The challenge now is handling increased expectations while maintaining the defensive identity and efficiency that fueled its success.

A Wide-Open Race

The defining feature of the 2026 NFL season may be parity. Buffalo, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Denver, Houston and Kansas City all have plausible paths through the AFC, while Philadelphia, Detroit, Green Bay, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington give the NFC considerable depth.

Ultimately, preseason analysis can only reveal so much. Every year produces teams that dramatically exceed expectations and supposed contenders that collapse under injuries or poor play. With 32 teams reporting to training camp and another 18-week regular season ahead, the 2026 NFL season should provide plenty of surprises before the playoff field is finally settled.

2026 NFL Season Preview: New York Jets

Walt — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 00:45:12 +0000

New York Jets

2026 NFL Season Preview:

Veteran Additions:
QB Geno Smith, WR Tim Patrick, G Dylan Parham, DT David Onyemata, DT T’Vondre Sweat, OLB Joseph Ossai, OLB Kingsley Enagbare, ILB Demario Davis, CB Nahshon Wright, S Minkah Fitzpatrick, S Dane Belton.
Draft Picks:
OLB David Bailey, TE Kenyon Sadiq, WR Omar Cooper, CB D’Angelo Ponds, NT Darrell Jackson, QB Cade Klubnik. Jets Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
QB Tyrod Taylor, TE Stone Smartt, TE Jelani Woods, G Alijah Vera-Tucker, G John Simpson, DT Jay Tufele, S Andre Cisco.

2026 New York Jets Offense:
It’s been a long time since the Jets have had any sort of stability at quarterback, but there is at least one ESPN analyst who believes that is about to change. This analyst called Geno Smith a “top-10 quarterback” prior to 2025. Smith was dreadful for the Raiders, but one poor year likely won’t change that opinion. And sure, Smith compiled most of his positive yardage in garbage time when he was with the Seahawks, but the fact does remain that Smith is more stable than whatever the Jets had at quarterback last year, whether it was Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, or the anemic Brady Cook.

To be fair to Smith, he had some of the worst blocking imaginable last year in Las Vegas. The Jets have a far superior offensive line compared to what the Raiders maintained, as two recent first-round picks will once again start at tackle. Olu Fashano has been a quality blind-side protector, but the better of the two tackles thus far is Armand Membou. Despite being a rookie last year, Membou was excellent on the right side. He has all the athleticism in the world for an offensive lineman, and the sky is the limit for him.

Another Jets lineman with high potential was Alijah Vera-Tucker, but he spent too much time on the injury report. He’s no longer on the roster, so the Jets will move forward with the trio of Josh Myers, Joe Tippmann, and the newly signed Dylan Parham in the interior. Tippmann is the best of the three, while Parham was the lone bright spot on the Raiders’ front last year in the wake of Kolton Miller’s injury. The glaring weakness is center Josh Myers, who should just be a backup.

Smith didn’t have much at his disposal as far as pass-catchers were concerned last year, aside from Brock Bowers, who also dealt with injuries. Once Jakobi Meyers was dealt, Smith had nothing to work with downfield in Las Vegas, but things will be radically different with his new team. Garrett Wilson is an incredibly talented, young receiver, while Adonai Mitchell has plenty of potential as someone who can make big plays down the field. The Jets also used one of their three first-round picks on Omar Cooper, who will be a big upgrade in the slot.

The second of the Jets’ opening-round selections was used on Kenyon Sadiq, a terrific tight end prospect. The Jets already had the very athletic Mason Taylor at the position, so they’ll be able to utilize multi-tight end formations with Sadiq and Taylor creating havoc for opposing defenses.

Smith’s best weapon, aside from Wilson, is Breece Hall, who signed a big contract this offseason. Hall has a checkered injury history, but he’s an incredibly gifted running back who can go the distance whenever he touches the ball. He is also a very effective receiver out of the backfield.

2026 New York Jets Defense:
Much was expected of the Jets defense last year in the wake of the Aaron Glenn hiring. New York had an elite defense under Robert Saleh for a couple of seasons, but regressed once Saleh was fired. Glenn, who did a great job with the Lions’ stop unit, was supposed to fix things, but he made everything worse instead. The Jets surrendered the eighth-most yardage in the NFL last year, even though they had mega talents like Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner on their roster for half the season.

The Jets dealt both of those players, but they brought in so many seasoned veterans this offseason to aid Glenn in his second year. There will be two new starters on the three-man front: T’Vondre Sweat and David Onyemata. Sweat is a young run plugger who can apply some pressure for a nose tackle, while Onyemata is great in every regard. They, along with Harrison Phillips, will provide the Jets with a much better defensive line than what the team had in that area last season.

Every grouping in the front seven was addressed this offseason. The edge rush was bolstered by the No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, David Bailey. The Texas Tech product was the best pass rusher in the class, and he figures to be a force for the Jets. His bookend will be former first-round selection Will McDonald, who notched a team-high eight sacks last year. Bailey and McDonald will create plenty of havoc for opposing quarterbacks.

The new player at inside linebacker is Demario Davis, who is a complete wonder because he has continued to perform on a high level despite his advanced age. Davis will turn 38 at the end of the 2026 season, yet he’s coming off an incredible year with the Saints. Unless he regresses, he’ll provide the Jets with far better play than what they had at inside linebacker last year. Davis will start next to Jamien Sherwood, a player who thrives against the run but can be beaten in coverage.

New York added some talent in the secondary as well. The big name is Minkah Fitzpatrick, who happened to be Miami’s top defender last year. Fitzpatrick turns 30 in November, but he’s obviously playing at the top of his game. He’ll be a huge upgrade next to Andre Cisco, an athletic safety who missed nine games in 2025.

Nahshon Wright is another new addition, and he’ll be an upgrade over what the Jets had at cornerback following the Gardner trade last season. Wright is not nearly the star Gardner is, but he’s a solid starter. He’ll play opposite Brandon Stephens, the lone bright spot in New York’s secondary during the second half of 2025. Another new cornerback, D’Angelo Ponds, will operate in the slot. He’s a second-round rookie with potential, but it’s unclear how he’ll perform right away.

2026 New York Jets Schedule and Intangibles:
Jason Sanders is the Jets’ new kicker. Sanders has had success in the past as Miami’s kicker.

Punter Austin McNamara had a solid rookie year, finishing eighth in net punting, all while constantly placing the oppositon inside the 20.

The Jets have a fourth-place schedule, but they still have some tough opponents like the Lions, Bears, Chargers, Broncos, and of course, the Patriots and Bills twice each.

2026 New York Jets Rookies:
Go here for the Jets Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.

2026 New York Jets Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):

Quarterbacks	Offensive Line	Secondary
Running Backs	Defensive Line	Special Teams
Receivers	Linebackers	Coaching

2026 New York Jets Analysis: Many publications list the Jets among the worst teams in the NFL, but their evaluations are incorrect. Geno Smith stinks, and there are a couple of weaknesses, but the Jets have some explosive playmakers, a solid offensive line, and quality veterans on the defensive side of the ball to keep them competitive in most games this year.

Projection: 6-11 (3rd in AFC East)

2025 Projection: 7-10. 2025 Actual Result: 3-14.
2024 Projection: 11-6. 2024 Actual Result: 5-12.
2023 Projection: 12-5. 2023 Actual Result: 7-10.
2022 Projection: 3-14. 2022 Actual Result: 7-10.
2021 Projection: 4-13. 2021 Actual Result: 4-13.
2020 Projection: 3-13. 2020 Actual Result: 2-14.
2019 Projection: 10-6. 2019 Actual Result: 7-9.
2018 Projection: 5-11. 2018 Actual Result: 4-12.
2017 Projection: 2-14. 2017 Actual Result: 5-11.
2016 Projection: 6-10. 2016 Actual Result: 5-11.

NFL Draft Team Grade: A Grade

Goals Entering the 2026 NFL Draft: The Jets have holes everywhere. They need a franchise quarterback, but won’t have the chance to land one. They can at least set it up so that they have a friendlier environment for the one they draft in 2027. Interior line help and receivers are needed. The defense must be overhauled as well.

2026 NFL Draft Accomplishments: Unlike the Raiders, the Jets understood that they have to find weapons for their franchise quarterback, even if they don’t have one right now. They will eventually have one – I have them selecting Arch Manning in my 2027 NFL Mock Draft – and when they do, that signal-caller will be put into a great situation.

The Jets used their top pick on David Bailey to strengthen the defense, but they went to work on their skill players after that. They obtained nice values with Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper to complement Garrett Wilson. The Sadiq pick was panned by some clueless publications, but he’ll likely be a terrific intermediate threat for Manning or whichever quarterback the Jets land next year. Cooper was a nice find at the end of Round 1.

Following the Sadiq and Cooper selections, the Jets went back to focusing on their poor defense. They made a number of quality selections, with every single pick scoring a “B” or higher in the individual NFL Draft Grades page. These picks won’t make the Jets much better right away because they still have no quarterback, but the front office accomplished its goal of setting up its next franchise signal caller for success.

NFL Draft Individual Grades:

2. David Bailey, DE, Texas Tech – A Grade

David Bailey is the right pick. He is a proven edge rusher, while Arvell Reese is a one-year starter who happens to be a project because he has no natural position. Bailey will give the Jets a good chance to rattle Josh Allen and Drake Maye.

16. Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon – A Grade

Multi-tight end formations have been en vogue lately, so this pick makes sense despite the Jets having a talented tight end in Mason Taylor. Kenyon Sadiq figures to be a great weapon for the Jets, who are starved for play-makers outside of Garrett Wilson. Arch Manning has to love this selection because he’s currently slotted to the Jets in our 2027 NFL Mock Draft.

30. Omar Cooper, WR, Indiana – A Grade

The Jets are giving Arch Manning quite the arsenal, selecting Omar Cooper after getting Kenyon Sadiq. They were starved for offensive firepower, and they may now have plenty of it. Cooper should be a big upgrade across from Garrett Wilson, and he provides with plenty of value because he easily could have gotten him in the 16-21 range.

50. D’Angelo Ponds, CB, Indiana – B Grade

D’Angelo Ponds has size issues, but if it wasn’t for those, he would’ve been a first-round pick. He was terrific at Indiana and has a good chance of being a big upgrade for a Jets secondary that lost Sauce Gardner.

103. Darrell Jackson, DT, Florida State – B+ Grade

Darrell Jackson is a big nose tackle who can offer a bit of pass-rushing upside, and I thought there was a chance he’d go in the third round. This is a solid pick by the Jets, who have had issues stopping the run for a long time.

110. Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson – B Grade

The Jets were screwed when Dante Moore decided to go back to college. They now have to tank for Arch Manning, but Cade Klubnik is a fine option here in case he ends up being a steal. I’m neutral on him, as he’s accurate but doesn’t have a strong arm.

188. Anez Cooper, G, Miami – B+ Grade

Anez Cooper is strong at the point of attack. He’s a stout run blocker. The Jets needed guard help entering the 2026 NFL Draft, and they found a solid prospect whom I mocked a round earlier.

228. V.J. Payne, S, Kansas State – A- Grade

V.J. Payne is a big safety who possesses great strength and some ability to play deep free safety. This has been a troubled position for a while, so the Jets did well to secure a prospect who could have gone earlier. I had Payne slotted near the end of Round 5.

2026 NFL Mock Draft | 2027 NFL Mock Draft

Fantasy Football Rankings - June 22

2027 NFL Mock Draft - June 16

NFL Picks - Feb. 9

NFL Power Rankings - Jan. 26

NFL Draft Links:

2026 NFL Season Preview: Miami Dolphins

Walt — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 01:47:22 +0000

Miami Dolphins

2026 NFL Season Preview:

Veteran Additions:
QB Malik Willis, WR Jalen Tolbert, WR Tutu Atwell, OT Jamaree Salyer, OT Charlie Heck, DE Josh Uche, DE David Ojabo, CB Darrell Baker, S Lonnie Johnson, S Zayne Anderson, K Zane Gonzalez, P Bradley Pinion.
Early Draft Picks:
OT/G Kadyn Proctor, CB Chris Johnson, ILB Jacob Rodriguez, WR Caleb Douglas, WR Chris Bell, TE Will Kacmarek, DE Trey Moore, ILB Kyle Louis. Dolphins Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
QB Tua Tagovailoa, FB Alec Ingold, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TE Darren Waller, OT Larry Borom, G James Daniels, G Liem Eichenberg, G Cole Strange, G Daniel Brunskill, DE Bradley Chubb, DT Benito Jones, ILB K.J. Britt, CB Rasul Douglas, CB Kader Kohou, S Ifeatu Melifonwu, S Ashtyn Davis, K Jason Sanders, P Jake Bailey.

2026 Miami Dolphins Offense:
Miami’s offseason was a perplexing one. The Dolphins signed Malik Willis away from the Packers in what appeared to be an attempt to build around a young quarterback who had some bright moments backing up “No Cookie” Jordan Love in Green Bay. However, the Dolphins then seemed to abandon that idea when they ditched their talented veteran receivers in favor of scrubs and young players.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle once formed an explosive duo, but they’re both gone. The Dolphins signed non-talents like Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell, as they and the returning duo from last year, Malik Washington and Theo Wease Jr., will compete with rookies Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell for playing time in what appears to be the worst receiver corps in the NFL. Big things were expected from Washington last year when Hill got hurt, but he disappointed. Wease had a couple of nice games down the stretch, but it’s not clear if he’s a true NFL talent. Douglas and Bell have loads of potential, though Bell is coming off a torn ACL and may not be ready for Week 1. Douglas has an elite size-speed combination and possesses plenty of upside. Willis will also be able to throw to athletic tight end Greg Dulcich.

Willis’ top target will be De’Von Achane. The dynamic back is just as much of a receiver as a runner. Achane has caught 145 passes in the past two years, and given that both Hill and Waddle are gone, his role as a receiver should increase despite Mike McDaniels’ departure. Achane, however, could be challenged to reach the 1,350 rushing yards he accumulated last year, given that the Dolphins will be in far more deficits.

One area that was upgraded this offseason was the left side of the offensive line. Kadyn Proctor was drafted at No. 12 overall. With Patrick Paul and Austin Jackson entrenched as the starters at tackle, Proctor will begin his career at left guard before potentially moving to tackle in the future. Paul is a young tackle who has shown plenty of potential, so if Proctor lives up to his upside, and center Aaron Brewer continues to perform on a high level, Miami’s left side of the offensive line should be solid.

The right side of the offensive line is a different story, however. Jackson is highly injury-prone, and isn’t very good when healthy anyway. Right guard Jonah Savaiinaea is young – he was chosen in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft – but he was one of the worst starting offensive linemen in the NFL last year.

2026 Miami Dolphins Defense:
It wasn’t too long ago that the Dolphins had a strong defense. They ranked 10th in yardage allowed two years ago and improved to fourth in that category in 2024. That ranking plummeted to 22nd, as the Dolphins lost key defensive pieces. Things have only gotten worse since then.

Miami dealt its top edge rusher, Jaelan Phillips, to the Eagles at the trade deadline. Their pass rush diminished as a result, but they still had other talented players to get to the quarterback like Bradley Chubb and Chop Robinson. Now, Chubb is gone after signing with the Bills. This leaves Robinson as the only viable starter. The Dolphins signed Josh Uche and David Ojabo to compete with fourth-round rookie Trey Moore to be the bookend for Robinson. None of these options seem very promising, and frankly, it’s not like Robinson is a sure thing either. He logged just four sacks last season, though he has a lot of potential as a recent first-round selection.

The Dolphins’ top returning pass rusher plays in the interior of the defensive line. That would be Zach Sieler, a very versatile player. Sieler had 5.5 sacks last season, and given the departure of talent on the edge, he’ll need to have a much better year to give the Dolphins any sort of hope of rushing the quarterback consistently. Kenneth Grant, last year’s first-round pick, will also need to step up his game after a dreadful rookie campaign.

Miami’s poor pass rush will put extra stress on a secondary that also lost talent this offseason. The Dolphins’ best defender last year, Minkah Fitzpatrick, is no longer on the roster. The team’s top cornerback from 2025, Rasul Douglas, is also gone. This defensive backfield can only be described as a train wreck. With Fitzpatrick off the roster, Miami’s starting safeties will be pedestrian journeyman Lonnie Johnson and 2025 fifth-round pick Dante Trader, who struggled in brief action last year.

The Dolphins at least used a first-round pick to address the cornerback group, selecting Chris Johnson late in the opening frame. Johnson is far from a finished product, however, so it may take him some time to develop. He’ll start opposite JuJu Brents, who played only four games due to injury last season. At nickel, Jason Marshall will have to improve his play after being one of the worst slot corners in the NFL this past year.

The strength of the Dolphins’ defense is the linebacker corps, and not just by default. Jordyn Brooks is a tremendous player in his prime, while Tyrel Dodson is a quality two-down linebacker who thrives in run support. Miami used a second-round pick on Jacob Rodriguez to compete for snaps.

2026 Miami Dolphins Schedule and Intangibles:
Jason Sanders is no longer Miami’s kicker. The team signed Zane Gonzalez over from the Falcons. Gonzalez was 19-of-22 last year, drilling 7-of-9 from 50-plus.

The Dolphins also imported their punter from the Falcons. Bradley Pinion was just 24 in net punting last year, but did a great job of pinning the opposition inside the 20.

Miami has some winnable games on its schedule: at Raiders, at Vikings (if Kyler Murray is out), at Colts, and the two games against the Jets.

2026 Miami Dolphins Rookies:
Go here for the Dolphins Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.

2026 Miami Dolphins Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):

Quarterbacks	Offensive Line	Secondary
Running Backs	Defensive Line	Special Teams
Receivers	Linebackers	Coaching

2026 Miami Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL, but this is all by design. Miami’s ownership has a history of intentionally tanking, and it’s quite clear that the organization is trying to put itself in position to obtain Arch Manning atop the 2027 NFL Draft.

Projection: 2-15 (4th in AFC East)

2025 Projection: 5-12. 2025 Actual Result: 7-10.
2024 Projection: 10-7. 2024 Actual Result: 8-9.
2023 Projection: 11-6. 2023 Actual Result: 11-6.
2022 Projection: 8-9. 2022 Actual Result: 9-8.
2021 Projection: 10-7. 2021 Actual Result: 9-8.
2020 Projection: 4-12. 2020 Actual Result: 10-6.
2019 Projection: 1-15. 2019 Actual Result: 5-11.
2018 Projection: 4-12. 2018 Actual Result: 7-9.
2017 Projection: 7-9. 2017 Actual Result: 6-10.
2016 Projection: 4-12. 2016 Actual Result: 10-6.

NFL Draft Team Grade: B Grade

Goals Entering the 2026 NFL Draft: The Dolphins are in a rebuild. They have so little talent on their roster that every position is a need, excluding the two in the backfield. They need to draft the best player available, though at least one early selection needs to be used on a receiver to give Malik Willis a chance.

2026 NFL Draft Accomplishments: For a while, it looked like the Dolphins disagreed that they needed to give Malik Willis any sort of receiving threat. They exited Round 1 without a receiver, though they were able to land a highly needed offensive tackle in Kadyn Proctor after moving down one spot and securing two fifth-round picks. The Dolphins then moved up for a cornerback when that was an unnecessary transaction.

Just when it appeared as though the Dolphins would squander the 2026 NFL Draft, the team came through with one of the best values of the entire draft when they secured Chris Bell in the third round. Bell has ridiculous talent, but slipped because of injuries. It sounds like he’ll be ready for the start of the season, so Miami lucked out that other teams foolishly passed on him. The Dolphins also used another second-day pick on a receiver, but that was a reach in Caleb Douglas. An even bigger reach was third-round blocking tight end Will Kacmarek.

Aside from Bell, the best value the Dolphins obtained was second-round linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. He, Johnson, Trey Moore, and Kyle Louis should be able to help a putrid defense. Meanwhile, fifth-round receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. will provide some juice to the receiver group. Seventh-rund edge Max Llewllyn was a steal.

Despite the rocky start, the Dolphins rebounded and had a strong draft. They had enough missteps to take them out of the “A” range, so a solid “B” feels right.

NFL Draft Individual Grades:

12. Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama – A- Grade

The Lions were really hoping Kadyn Proctor would fall to them, but the Dolphins would have none of that. Proctor is risky with his weight, but there’s a ton of upside with this pick for the Dolphins, who have needed offensive line help for years. On top of that, they also picked up two fifth-round picks for free. Nice job!

27. Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State – D Grade

Chris Johnson had gotten mid-round grades not too long ago, so this rise was unexpected. Still, it’s not a surprise that Chris Johnson went in the first round. I have two issues with this pick. First, there was no need to trade up for Johnson with several talented corners available. Second, Miami failed to address the weakest receiver room in the NFL in the first round, which is something they needed to do to make sure Malik Willis succeeds.

43. Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech – A+ Grade

I loved the two top linebackers expected to go in this round. Jacob Rodriguez is an extremely instinctive linebacker who will undoubtedly make Miami’s defense much better. The rudderless Dolphins desperately needed a player like this, and you can say that they’re getting value because there was some chatter that Rodriguez could go at the end of Round 1.

75. Caleb Douglas, WR, Texas Tech – D Grade

Yikes! The Dolphins are addressing a need with a tall receiver, but that’s where the positives end. Caleb Douglas has terrible hands and happens to be a very weak receiver who needs to bulk up. He’s a project, and I had him going in the sixth round.

87. Will Kacmarek, TE, Ohio State – MILLEN Grade

I hate to issue another Millen grade because it seems excessive, but I didn’t have Will Kacmarek being drafted. He’s a blocking tight end who doesn’t offer much as a receiver. Tight ends like this are a dime a dozen. This is a waste of a third-round pick.

94. Chris Bell, WR, Louisville – A+ Grade

What a steal! Chris Bell was one of my favorite prospects on Day 2, and I thought he was good enough to go in the 30s. He’s an explosive receiver who makes big plays. He fell because of injury and character concerns, but if he can stay clean, he could emerge as Miami’s No. 1 receiver.

130. Trey Moore, DE, Texas – B- Grade

Trey Moore struggles in coverage, but has a great track record of generating pressure on the quarterback. The Dolphins had interest in Rueben Bain at No. 11, so it makes sense for them to take an edge rusher to replace Jalean Phillips. I had Moore in the fifth round.

138. Kyle Louis, OLB, Pittsburgh – B- Grade

Kyle Louis is a versatile linebacker with strong pass-rushing ability, but he’s undersized. He could be used as safety. He doesn’t have a set position, which is a problem, but the Dolphins might be able to figure out how to use him.

158. Michael Taaffe, S, Texas – B Grade

Michael Taaffe was strong in run support for the Longhorns. Miami’s safety situation is quite dismal, so any help is welcome. I had Taaffe going in this range.

177. Kevin Coleman Jr., WR, Missouri – B Grade

Kevin Coleman is an undersized receiver, but could play in the slot while doubling as a kick returner. The Dolphins have such a weak group of receivers that Coleman could contribute right away. I had him going five picks earlier, so the range makes sense.

180. Seydou Traore, TE, Mississippi State – D Grade

Seydou Traore is not someone I had in my top-400 prospects. He’s a tweener receiver-tight end, and I don’t think he has a role in the NFL. He’s an athletic prospect, but where does he play besides special teams?

200. D.J. Campbell, G, Texas – B Grade

D.J. Campbell had a lot of starting experience in college, but was penalized often. The Dolphins needed some offensive line depth and competition, and this range makes sense for Campbell.

238. Max Llewellyn, DE, Iowa – A Grade

Max Llewellyn improved his pass-rushing ability throughout his collegiate career. He has plenty of upside, as he could continue to improve. I love the potential here for the Dolphins; I had Llewellyn slotted in the fifth round.

2026 NFL Mock Draft | 2027 NFL Mock Draft

Fantasy Football Rankings - June 22

2027 NFL Mock Draft - June 16

NFL Picks - Feb. 9

NFL Power Rankings - Jan. 26

NFL Draft Links:

PGA Bets for the 2026 3M Open

Walt — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 16:30:12 +0000

PGA Picks (2026 Genesis): -$650
PGA Picks (2026 Cognizant): -$205
PGA Picks (2026 Arnold Palmer): -$1,125
PGA Picks (2026 Players): -$390
PGA Picks (2026 Valspar): +$1,310
PGA Picks (2026 Houston): -$455
PGA Picks (2026 Texas): -$125
PGA Picks (2026 Masters): +$1,685
PGA Picks (2026 RBC Heritage): +$1,145
PGA Picks (2026 Cadillac): +$2,195
PGA Picks (2026 Truist): -$1,100
PGA Picks (2026 PGA Championship): -$785
PGA Picks (2026 Byron Nelson): +$1,795
PGA Picks (2026 Charles Schwab): -$200
PGA Picks (2026 Memorial): -$845
PGA Picks (2026 Canadian): -$1,235
PGA Picks (2026 U.S. Open): -$1,330
PGA Picks (2026 Travelers): +$560
PGA Picks (2026 John Deere): -$215
PGA Picks (2026 Scottish): -$1,315
PGA Picks (2026 British): -$860

PGA Picks (2026): -$2,145
PGA Picks (2025): -$2,725
PGA Picks (2024): +$1,730
PGA Picks (2023): +$7,020
PGA Picks (2020): +$270

PGA Bets for the 2026 3M Open:

“Sometimes it feels like someone is taking a s**t directly on your head.”

I wrote this on X after Ben Kohles blew it two Sundays ago, and it felt that way again when Min Woo Lee choked on a 6-foot putt two weeks ago that led to his demise. And last week, we had Si Woo Kim, the Sunday leader heading into the back nine. We bet him at 50/1, but he choked down the stretch with four bogeys to close out the tournament. No one has been running worse than us on Sundays this year. It goes back all the way to the Cognizant when Shane Lowry hit the ball in the water on two straight holes at the end of the tournament, and then the Players when Matt Fitzpatrick blew a chance to win at the end.

The only silver lining is that we made back some money by hedging with Ryan Fox. We were given a golden opportunity to hedge when Kim had the lead, and we took advantage of it. Still, it would be nice to win some of these tournaments instead of seeing blown leads all the time.

Maybe our bad luck will end at the 3M, which is hosted at TPC Twin Cities. This golf course is rather straightforward. It’s very long, so it’s a bomber course, as evidenced by the likes of Cameron Champ winning. Approach is also very important; perhaps even more so than driving distance because water comes into play on 13 holes. This will also be a birdie fest, so putting will matter, but only a little bit because the greens are very simple.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 3M Open:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Aldrich Potgieter
3. Kurt Kitayama
4. Keith Mitchell
5. Michael Brennan
6. Jake Knapp
7. Johnny Keefer
8. Gary Woodland
9. Samuel Stevens
10. Tony Finau
11. Pierceson Coody
12. Hideki Matsuyama
13. Jordan Smith
14. Jackson Suber
15. Tom Kim
16. Rasmus Hojgaard
17. Maverick McNealy
18. Corey Conners
19. Taylor Pendrith
20. Zecheng Dou

Scottie Scheffler seems out of place at this tournament. He’s never played the 3M because he often takes the week off after the British Open. It seems like he’s pissed about how he finished the British Open, and I don’t want to stand in his way. Even in a down year, he’s still the best golfer in the world, and I don’t want to bet against him when he’s mad. I’ll be playing the Without market this week, and if Scheffler falters on Thursday, perhaps we’ll bet him for value.

Kurt Kitayama to win the 2026 3M Open without Scottie Scheffler +2000 (BetRivers)
I don’t often like betting on golfers to repeat as champions of an event, but Kurt Kitayama will be a rare exception. He’s No. 3 in my model, and he’s a perfect fit for this course. We bet him last year at +4000 because of his great power off the tee and excellent approach skill set. The number isn’t as good this year, but I still love Kitayama at TPC Twin Cities.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 30 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +2000) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers

Keith Mitchell to win the 2026 3M Open without Scottie Scheffler +2500 (DraftKings)
Keith Mitchell is another driving distance-approach specialist who projects extremely well at this tournament. He’s had some nice finishes this year, including fourth place at the U.S. Open, and fifth at the Byron Nelson. He missed the cut at the British Open, which was not a good course fit for him. I like this because it should motivate Mitchell to rebound.

Betting 1 Unit to win 25 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +2500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Samuel Stevens to win the 2026 3M Open without Scottie Scheffler +4500 (DraftKings)
Like Keith Mitchell, Samuel Stevens thrives when it comes to driving distance and approach play. And like Mitchell, he missed the cut at the British Open, but managed to finish in the top 10 of the U.S. Open. Stevens also finished fifth at the Houston Open, which is a good comp for this course. He’s a steal at 45/1, especially after his second-place finish at this tournament last year.

Betting 1 Unit to win 45 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +4500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Johnny Keefer to win the 2026 3M Open without Scottie Scheffler +4600 (DraftKings)
Johnny Keefer has great power off the tee, and he’s also solid with his irons. He’s not coming off a missed cut at the British Open, but he didn’t exactly contend at the end with his 46th-place finish. However, we saw him finish third at the Houston Open, which, again, is a great comp for this course. Keefer was also third at the Scottish Open and ninth at the Byron Nelson, so three top-10 finishes indicates that he could win this tournament.

Betting 1 Unit to win 46 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +4600) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Gary Woodland to win the 2026 3M Open without Scottie Scheffler +4900 (DraftKings)
Speaking of golfers who thrived at the U.S. Open and the Houston Open, Gary Woodland finished seventh at the former tournament and first at the latter. Woodland has great driving distance and solid approach skills. He’s finished in the top 10 on four occasions this year, so he’ll have a good chance to win this at TPC Twin Cities, where he finished 20th last year when he wasn’t playing as well as he is now.

Betting 1 Unit to win 49 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +4900) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Michael Brennan to win the 2026 3M Open without Scottie Scheffler +5000 (BetRivers)
Michael Brennan is 24 and hasn’t won a real PGA event yet – some October event in Utah versus scrubs doesn’t count – but he could be in line to prevail this week. Of all the golfers in this field, Brennan has the second-best driving distance score. He has also gained strokes on approach in three of his previous four tournaments. His putter sucks, but as I wrote earlier, the greens on this course are rather simple. Even with the putting downgrade, he’s still fifth in my model, so he’s definitely worth a bet at 50/1.

Betting 1 Unit to win 50 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +5000) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers

Aldrich Potgieter to win the 2026 3M Open without Scottie Scheffler +7800 (DraftKings)
I mentioned that Michael Brennan has the second-best driving distance at this tournament. Aldrich Potgieter is No. 1 in that department, and it’s not even close. Potgieter was able to win another distance-friendly tournament last year when he prevailed at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. I like his chances here, as he has the driving distance and the decent approach play (he’s gained strokes on approach in four of his previous seven tournaments) to have success at TPC Twin Cities. Potgieter is a steal at +7800.

Betting 1 Unit to win 78 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +7800) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 3M Open:

TBA

Various Longshots
I’m betting a small amount on each of these golfers to win without Scottie Scheffer. All of these golfers are lower in my model than my main bets, but have a good chance to prevail. Some of the higher-odds golfers are slight hedges, if anything.

Pierceson Coody to win +3300 (0.4 Units) – BetRivers
Jackson Suber to win +3500 (0.4 Units) – DraftKings
Jordan Smith to win +4100 (0.35 Units) – DraftKings
Davis Thompson to win +7000 (0.25 Units) – DraftKings

First-Round Leader at the 2026 3M Open:

Keith Mitchell +4500 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Hideki Matsuyama +4500 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Corey Conners +5700 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Jordan Smith +5900 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Mac Meissner +6400 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Michael Brennan +7000 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

William Mouw +7500 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Stephan Jaegar +7500 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Rasmus Hojgaard +8000 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Steven Fisk +8000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Lee Hodges +8200 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Taylor Moore +8200 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Zachary Bauchou +9000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Adrien Dumont +10000 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Round 2-4 Bets at the 3M Open:

PGA Bets for the 2026 British Open:

“Sometimes it feels like someone is taking a s**t directly on your head.”

I wrote this on X after Ben Kohles blew it two Sundays ago, and it felt that way again when Min Woo Lee choked on a 6-foot putt on Sunday that led to his demise. The real kick in the balls was hedging with everyone except the winner until the very end. Tom Kim was a poor model fit for the course, yet he prevailed somehow. Lee finished second, marking the millionth time this year that we had the second-place finisher. If we had just bet everyone to finish second instead of first, we’d be up five figures right now, and I’m not even joking about that.

Hopefully we get the winner and not the runner-up at the British Open. This tournament will be hosted at Royal Birkdale, a small course that emphasizes accuracy because of narrow fairways and thick rough. Approach and around-the-green play matter a lot here as well. Also, I’ll be looking at how golfers have performed at the Scottish Open, which is typically a good indicator of how they’ll perform at the British Open. Here’s how the previous British Open winners fared at the Scottish Open since they began the Scottish-then-British format in 2021:

2025: Scottie Scheffler – 8th
2024: Xander Schauffele – 15th
2023: Brian Harman – 12th
2022: Cameron Smith – 10th
2021: Collin Morikawa – 71st*

I starred Morikawa because he performed well the first three rounds, but blew up on Sunday. Still, we’ve had top-15 finishers at the Scottish Open win the British Open, which makes sense because golfers who do well at the Scottish Open have proven that they can perform well on links courses.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 British Open (starred players finished in the top 20 last week):

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Matt Fitzpatrick*
3. Tommy Fleetwood*
4. Russell Henley
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Viktor Hovland*
7. Si Woo Kim*
8. Aaron Rai
9. Tom Kim*
10. Cameron Young
11. Alex Fitzpatrick
12. Patrick Cantlay
13. J.J. Spaun
14. Jon Rahm
15. Justin Thomas
16. Rory McIlroy*
17. Min Woo Lee*
18. Ludvig Aberg
19. Ben Griffin
20. Patrick Reed*

I don’t know what to do with Scheffler. This is a perfect course for his skill set, and I would think that he’d have a great chance of bouncing back from his first missed cut since 2022. However, he hasn’t been playing his best, and he would violate the rule of performing well at the Scottish Open. I may bet him at some point during the tournament, but I won’t be venturing into the Without market this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick to win the 2026 British Open +1800 (DraftKings)
Matt Fitzpatrick would have won the Scottish Open if he didn’t miss several makeable puts on Sunday. Putting has been an issue with him lately, but he’s usually solid on the greens, so I don’t know why he would be terrible in that regard. Fitzpatrick ranks incredibly close to Scheffler in the model, which is not a surprise because he’s been a monster this year. He has three wins, two seconds, a third, and a fourth. The only thing that’s missing is a major win, which I believe he’ll achieve this weekend.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 27 (to win +1800) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Tommy Fleetwood to win the 2026 British Open +1900 (DraftKings)
Tommy Fleetwood has never won a PGA tournament outside of last year’s Tour Championship somehow. He came up huge in a big moment, so no one can say that he can’t do it. Fleetwood will be golfing in his hometown this week. It’s extremely important that he knows this golf course. I also like that he’s coming off a respectable 13th at the Scottish Open, and that his skill set fits this course perfectly because of his elite accuracy and approach play. I think many will balk at Fleetwood, especially when considering the price, but I think there’s a decent chance that he finally wins a major.

Betting 1.25 Units to win 23.75 (to win +1900) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Viktor Hovland to win the 2026 British Open +3400 (DraftKings)
Speaking of golfers who have no major wins and one Tour Championship, Viktor Hovland is looking great this week. Hovland, who tied Fleetwood for 13th last week, has what it takes to prevail at this venue. Driving accuracy and approach play are his strongest attributes. He’s also been golfing extremely well lately. In addition to the 13th at the Scottish Open, Hovland won the Travelers and finished third at the Canadian Open.

Betting 1 Unit to win 34 (to win +3400) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Si Woo Kim to win the 2026 British Open +5000 (BetMGM)
Si Woo Kim is the ultimate accuracy-approach golfer. He doesn’t have a major win, but if he’s ever going to pull through with one, this would be it. Kim is coming off a strong ninth-place finish at the Scottish Open, which was part of his great season. He hasn’t won a tournament yet, but he finished sixth at the AmEx, second at the Farmers, third at the Phoenix Open, third at the RBC Heritage, fourth at the Cadillac, second at the Byron Nelson, and 10th at the Memorial. He should be in contention to win the British Open, so he’s a great bet at 50/1.

Betting 1 Unit to win 50 (to win +5000) at BetMGM

Russell Henley to win the 2026 British Open +5400 (DraftKings)
Russell Henley will be the only exception to our Scottish Open rule. This is because Henley purposely never plays the Scottish Open so that he can gain an edge at the British Open. It’s worked for him in recent years. In the past two British Opens, he’s finished 10th and fifth. He’ll likely be a potential top-10 finisher at this tournament, given his elite accuracy and strong approach play. Henley doesn’t have a major win yet, but he’s been close. In the past nine majors, he’s finished in the top 10 on five occasions, including third at the Masters this season.

Betting 1 Unit to win 54 (to win +5400) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Min Woo Lee to win the 2026 British Open +6111 (Kalshi)
Min Woo Lee obviously had a great Scottish Open. He broke our hearts on Sunday, but he was still second. He doesn’t seem like a natural fit at this golf course at first glance, but upon further inspection, I think he is. Lee typically isn’t very accurate off the tee, but that’s changed this year. In 16 tournaments this calendar year, Lee has measured positive accuracy off the tee in 10 of those. Compare that to last season, when Lee was 5-of-22 in positive accuracy. Lee is also a terrific links player, so I think he’s a major sleeper to win the British Open at his price.

Betting 1 Unit to win 61.1 (to win +6111) at Kalshi

Patrick Reed to win the 2026 British Open +7694 (Kalshi)
Our final golfer is about a 77/1 long shot, which is an outrageous price. Patrick Reed is an excellent golfer who has extensive experience on the World Tour, so he knows links courses extremely well. We saw that last week at the Scottish Open, where he finished tied for 13th. Reed is more accurate than long, and he’s great on approach and around the green. He’s also shown up at majors recently, finishing in the top 12 in three of the previous seven majors. He was third at the Masters last year and 10th at the PGA Championship this season, so there’s no reason he should be hovering at close to 80/1.

Betting 1 Unit to win 76.94 (to win +7694) at Kalshi

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 British Open:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 British Open:

Tommy Fleetwood +3400 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings

Justin Rose +4500 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Bobby MacIntyre +4500 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Viktor Hovland +4572 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Si Woo Kim +5759 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Russell Henley +6000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Min Woo Lee +6058 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Hideki Matsuyama +7500 (0.3 Units) – Bookmaker

Ben Griffin +9000 (0.3 Units) – Bookmaker

Ryan Fox +9200 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Jordan Smith +10000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Ryo Hisatsune +10500 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Nick Taylor +12500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Michael Thorbjornsen +17500* (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

* – FanDuel has a First-Round Leader Early Win promo, where if you bet a golfer to win the entire tournament, and they’re the first-round leader, you’ll be paid out early. The best way to take advantage of this is to bet someone who has way higher odds overall compared to the first round. Michael Thorbjornsen, for example, is +17500 to win the tournament, but “only” +10000 to win the first round. So, if Thorbjornsen is the first-round leader, we get paid out 0.3 units out of +17500. What’s cool is that even if he’s not the first-round leader, we get a chance to win with him as the outright winner, which isn’t impossible because he’s 50th in the model and performed well at the Scottish Open.

We’re taking some shots here on the first-round leader. Almost all of these golfers rank highly in “birdie or better percentage” or have a good track record in the first round. These golfers are all teeing off in the morning when the conditions will be better.

Round 2-4 Bets at the British Open:
There are some renowned choke artists atop the leaderboard, so we’re going to bet the top golfers in the world for value. They’ll also provide somewhat of a hedge for our Si Woo Kim and Tommy Fleetwood plays. I’ll look to potentially hedge elsewhere on Sunday with some profit boosts available on BetMGM, DraftKings, BetRivers, and FanDuel.

Bryson DeChambeau +1544 (0.4 Units) – Kalshi

Ludvig Aberg +1666 (0.4 Units) – Kalshi

Scottie Scheffler +3497 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Jon Rahm +6566 (0.1 Units) – Kalshi

Rory McIlroy +23155 (0.03 Units) – Kalshi

Live on Sunday:

Ryan Fox +330 (2.5 Units) – BetMGM

Sam Burns +594 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings

Sam Burns +475 (1 Unit) – DraftKings

Cameron Young +755 (1 Unit) – Kalshi

Lucas Herbert +3400 (0.1 Units) – FanDuel

Lucas Herbert +2700 (0.2 Units) – FanDuel

Sam Burns +460 (0.25 Units) – BetRivers

Cameron Young +189 (0.15 Units) – Kalshi

BetMGM has a 20-percent boost up to $250. DraftKings has a 25-percent boost up to $50. FanDuel has a 30-percent boost up to $10. BetRivers has an 18-percent boost up to $25.

PGA Bets for the 2026 Scottish Open:

“Sometimes it feels like someone is taking a s**t directly on your head.”

I wrote this on X on Sunday night, and I can’t think of a better way to describe how I’m feeling right now. We handicapped the John Deere perfectly. Heading into Sunday, we had longshot bets on five of the golfers in the top seven. By the middle of the final round, Ben Kohles emerged as the favorite. Kohles was +8400, so we stood to win $8,400 with him. Then, Chris Gotterup came out of nowhere to have a great Sunday even though he was a very poor fit for the course because of his poor driving accuracy. Kohles, meanwhile, missed a 3-foot putt and then hit the ball into the water on 18.

Somehow, none of the five-of-seven golfers prevailed, while Kohles had one of the most epic choke jobs you’ll ever see in the sport. What a joke.

We’ve had astronomical levels of bad luck this year, which you can read all about lower on this page. We can handle this in one of two ways. We can either continue to cry about it and give up, or we can keep handicapping well and hope that luck favors us the rest of the season.

I’m going for the latter, so let’s break down the Scottish Open. The Scottish Open is hosted at the Renaissance Club. It’s a links golf course, which is something most American golfers are not used to, so I will be looking for positive links history for anyone we bet this week. Driving distance is crucial at the Renaissance Club because of the heavy winds and the very long par-four holes. Approach matters as well, as it always does, but it’s not as vital this week as it is in most tournaments. Putting will be important here as well.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Scottish Open:

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Jon Rahm
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Aldrich Potgieter
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Nicolai Hojgaard
7. Ludvig Aberg
8. Min Woo Lee
9. Marco Penge
10. Kurt Kitayama
11. Wyndham Clark
12. Jake Knapp
13. Michael Brennan
14. David Puig
15. Chris Gotterup
16. Justin Thomas
17. Patrick Cantlay
18. Rasmus Hojgaard
19. Pierceson Coody
20. Matt Fitzpatrick

For once, Scottie Scheffler isn’t No. 1. He’s not even No. 2. This is because he’s not a bomber like the other guys atop this list. His prime strength is approach play, which is not emphasized at the Renaissance Club. Scheffler has never finished in the top two of the Scottish Open, and I don’t think he’ll do it this year, based on how he has played.

That said, we will still be venturing into the Without market because DraftKings has a Without market comprised of Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, and Matt Fitzpatrick. I think the play here is to bet two of these guys and then wager on some other golfers in this Without market to set up a double win. We deserve it after what happened last week.

Rory McIlroy to win the 2026 Scottish Open +1051 (Bookmaker)
I talked about Scottie Scheffler failing to finish in the top two of the Scottish Open. Rory McIlroy has done that twice in the past three years. He won the event in 2023, and if it wasn’t for Chris Gotterup, he would’ve won again in 2025. McIlroy is a perfect fit for this course because of his great power off the tee. As a European, he’s also very familiar with links courses. He always seems to feel right at home here, which is because this is effectively his home, so I like his chances to prevail at the Scottish Open once again.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 15.76 (to win +1051) at Bookmaker

Jon Rahm to win the 2026 Scottish Open +1603 (Kalshi)
I said that I want to bet on two of the following five: Scheffler, McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, and Matt Fitzpatrick. We already signed up for McIlroy, so the other bet is between Rahm and Schauffele, based on course fit. It’s close, but I like Rahm over the others. Rahm is playing better golf this year than Schauffele, albeit on easier courses. Granted, he missed the cut at the U.S. Open, but I discussed his jetlag heading into the U.S. Open because he had played in South Korea and Spain the two weeks prior. This time, Rahm is well rested. He hasn’t golfed since the U.S. Open, so I love being able to bet one of the top golfers in the world off an embarrassing missed cut. Rahm has great power off the tee, and being a European, he’s very familiar with links courses.

Betting 1 Unit to win 16.03 (to win +1603) at Kalshi

Min Woo Lee to win the 2026 Scottish Open without Scheffler/McIlroy/Rahm/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +3000 (DraftKings)
Min Woo Lee is known for his great power off the tee. He’s also strong with his approach play and short game. He has struggled to putt in his previous three tournaments, but he’s usually solid on the greens. He has three top-six finishes this season, so given his positive links history, he’ll be able to win this tournament.

Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (to win without Scheffler/McIlroy/Rahm/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +3000) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Nicolai Hojgaard to win the 2026 Scottish Open without Scheffler/McIlroy/Rahm/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +3300 (DraftKings)
Nicolai Hojgaard broke our hearts at the Houston Open. Perhaps he’ll make up for it in Scotland. Hojgaard is one of the most powerful drivers on tour. His approach play is strong as well. Putting can be hit or miss, but it’s not terrible. Hojgaard used to be on the world tour, so he’s very familiar with links courses.

Betting 1 Unit to win 33 (to win without Scheffler/McIlroy/Rahm/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +3300) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Kurt Kitayama to win the 2026 Scottish Open without Scheffler/McIlroy/Rahm/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +3400 (DraftKings)
Kurt Kitayama is an American golfer, but he’s had positive outputs on links courses. That includes the Scottish Open, where he finished second in 2022. It would make sense that Kitayama would be able to thrive at the Renaissance Club, given that driving distance and approach play are his two strongest attributes. Kitayama has been very close to winning this year, finishing in the top 10 on four occasions, including second at the Genesis Invitational.

Betting 1 Unit to win 34 (to win without Scheffler/McIlroy/Rahm/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +3400) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Marco Penge to win the 2026 Scottish Open without Scheffler/McIlroy/Rahm/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +5800 (DraftKings)
Marco Penge is one of the most powerful drivers at the Scottish Open this year. He ranks third in driving distance, only behind Rory McIlroy and the next golfer we’ll discuss. Penge’s approach play is usually mediocre, but has been lackluster of late. However, he may have more success on a links course, given that he’s golfed the best on those throughout his career. This includes last year’s second-place finish at this tournament.

Betting 1 Unit to win 58 (to win without Scheffler/McIlroy/Rahm/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +5800) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Aldrich Potgieter to win the 2026 Scottish Open without Scheffler/McIlroy/Rahm/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +9800 (DraftKings)
Of all the golfers in this field, no one hits the ball farther than Aldrich Potgieter. He’s a capable putter most of the time, and his approach game is OK enough to win. He did so last year at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he was close to doing so earlier this year at the Mexico Open, where he finished second. As a South African, he has plenty of experience on links courses.

Betting 1 Unit to win 98 (to win without Scheffler/McIlroy/Rahm/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +9800) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Various Longshots
I’m betting a quarter unit on each of these three longshots (in the Without market).

Rasmus Hojgaard to win +8800 (0.25 Units) – DraftKings
Jesper Svensson to win +13500 (0.25 Units) – DraftKings
Mikael Lindberg to win +17000 (0.25 Units) – DraftKings

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Scottish Open:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Scottish Open:

Rory McIlroy +2500 (0.5 Units) – BetMGM

Wyndham Clark +4700 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Min Woo Lee +5400 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Nicolai Hojgaard +5500 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Kurt Kitayama +6000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Marco Penge +6800 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Aaron Rai +7400 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Bud Cauley +8000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Ryan Fox +8600 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Aldrich Potgieter +9000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Michael Thorbjornsen +9200 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Alex Smalley +9200 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Taylor Moore +11000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Jesper Svensson +11000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson +11500 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Mikael Lindberg +12500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

PGA Bets for the 2026 John Deere Classic:

Some good news and some bad news concerning last week’s tournament. The good news was that we nailed Eric Cole as the solo first-round leader at +6000. The bad news is that Matt Fitzpatrick easily could have won 28 units for us, but failed miserably on the greens.

Fitzpatrick had the best tee-to-green score by a country mile. Take a look at this:

No one was close to Fitzpatrick in this department. The difference between him and second place – his brother, whom we also bet – was the same as the difference between second and ninth place. Neither Fitzpatrick brother won because they were so poor on the greens, even though both are normally excellent putters. Matt missed a 4-foot putt and several 7-foot putts to blow it. We got screwed.

This next tournament is held at TPC Deere Run. It’s similar to TPC River Highlands, except it’s even more concentrated on driving accuracy. As it so happens, the top golfers in this weak field aren’t very accurate, so we might have a chance to hit a big winner. That’s what happened three years ago when we nailed Seppulon Straka at +5500.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 John Deere Classic:

1. Andrew Putnam
2. Ben Kohles
> 4. Doug Ghim
5. Zach Johnson
6. Jackson Koivun
7. Emilliano Grillo
8. Max McGreevy
9. Lucas Glover
10. Zac Blair
11. J.T. Poston
12. Brice Garnett
13. Tom Kim
14. Joel Dahmen
15. Keegan Bradley
16. Chandler Blanchet
17. Paul Peterson
18. Austin Smotherman
19. Davis Chatfield
20. Ben Griffin

Jackson Koivun to win the 2026 John Deere Classic +2700 (DraftKings)
Jackson Koivun is the most talented golfer in this field. He’s only 21, but he’s had some strong showings recently. He finished a very respectable 23rd at the U.S. Open despite competing against the top golfers in the world. Koivun should have a much better finish in this very weak field. Koivun, who has won six of his previous eight collegiate events, was fifth at the Wyndham, sixth at the ISCO, and 11th at this very tournament last year. He fits this course perfectly with his excellent accuracy, strong iron play, and quality putting skills.

Betting 1 Unit to win 27 (to win +2700) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Tom Kim to win the 2026 John Deere Classic +3500 (DraftKings)
Tom Kim is another young golfer with a bright future. He’s three years older than Jackson Koivun, so he has some wins under his belt already. He has three victories on tour, and he nearly had a fourth at the U.S. Open, where he finished third. Kim is an accurate golfer who possesses strong iron play, so that makes him a solid choice to win the John Deere Classic. He had some struggles earlier in the year, but there have been some major signs of improvement recently.

Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Doug Ghim to win the 2026 John Deere Classic +5858 (Bookmaker)
Doug Ghim’s two best traits are driving accuracy and approach. This bodes well for him at the John Deere Classic. His putting is his biggest weakness, but the greens at this course are very simple, so that shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Ghim has had some decent finishes lately. He’s made every cut since March and has gotten three top-20s since April 26. Those top-20s were in much tougher fields than Ghim will see at this tournament.

Betting 1 Unit to win 58.58 (to win +5858) at Bookmaker

Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win the 2026 John Deere Classic +7065 (Bookmaker)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout, known as “Alphabet Soup” around these parts, finished second at this tournament a few years ago. This was hardly a surprise, given that Bezuidenhout is one of the most accurate golfers on tour. He has no driving power, but that’s irrelevant at TPC Deere Run. Bezuidenhout has two top-eight finishes this year, as well as a respectable 35th at the PGA Championship against a much tougher field.

Betting 1 Unit to win 70.65 (to win +7065) at Bookmaker

Ben Kohles to win the 2026 John Deere Classic +8374 (Kalshi)
Ben Kohles is second in my model because he’s one of the most accurate golfers at this event. His approach game is also terrific. Kohles does nothing else well, but I don’t think he needs to at this tournament. Kohles has had some decent results lately, which might indicate that he could triumph at this event. He won some sort of Korn Ferry tournament and then went on to tie for 23rd at the U.S. Open.

Betting 1 Unit to win 83.74 (to win +8374) at Kalshi

Emiliano Grillo to win the 2026 John Deere Classic +8400 (DraftKings)
Emiliano Grillo finished second at this tournament last year, so I like his chances of being able to prevail this time. Grillo obviously has the driving accuracy needed to perform well at this event. He placed 23rd at the U.S. Open, which bodes well for his ability to perform well in a much weaker field.

Betting 1 Unit to win 84 (to win +8400) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Andrew Putnam to win the 2026 John Deere Classic +15083 (Bookmaker)
Andrew Putnam is No. 1 in my model, and yet he’s 150/1. That’s insane. Putnam is the most accurate golfer on tour, and he’s a wizard around the greens. He’s also gained strokes putting at every tournament since mid-April. Putnam nearly won the Texas Open for us at the same price, so perhaps he’ll come through for us this time against a much weaker field.

Betting 1 Unit to win 150.83 (to win +15083) at Bookmaker

Various Longshots
I’m betting a quarter unit on each of these five longshots. All five of these golfers are very accurate. They all have some glaring flaws, but those won’t be very prominent at this tournament.

Austin Smotherman to win +12578 (0.25 Units) – Bookmaker
Lucas Glover to win +17500 (0.25 Units) – BetMGM
Zac Blair to win +18591 (0.25 Units) – Bookmaker
Zach Johnson to win +25104 (0.25 Units) – Bookmaker
Brice Garnett to win +30203 (0.25 Units) – Kalshi

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 John Deere Classic:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 John Deere Classic:

Jackson Koivun +4300 (0.4 Units) – DraftKings

Eric Cole +4400 (0.4 Units) – DraftKings

Ryo Hisatsune +5600 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Doug Ghim +5800 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Davis Thompson +6100 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Beau Hossler +7500 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Max McGreevy +7600 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Ben Kohles +8000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Seamus Power +8200 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Austin Smotherman +8400 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Andrew Putnam +9000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Lee Hodges +10500 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Tom Hoge +10500 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Kevin Roy +10500 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Mark Hubbard +12000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Lucas Glover +320 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel

Second-Round Leader: Zach Johnson +2400 (0.25 Units) – DraftKings

Outright: Lee Hodges +820 (1.25 Units) – Bookmaker

Outright: Ryo Hisatsune +1135 (1 Unit) – Kalshi

Outright: Jackson Suber +550 (0.9 Units) – FanDuel

Outright: Jackson Suber +690 (0.1 Units) – FanDuel

New for Sunday:

We’re in a good spot, as we have high payouts with five of the top seven golfers. We’re in a great position to hedge about 5-6 units. This is the game plan:

Outright: Lee Hodges +400 (3 Units) – BetMGM

Outright: Jackson Suber +550 (1.5 Units) – BetRivers

Outright: Jackson Suber +825 (0.25 Units) – BetRivers – boosted

Outright: Max Homa +4801 (0.25 Units) – Kalshi

Outright: Chris Gotterup +6111 (0.2 Units) – Kalshi

Outright: Preston Stout +6600 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM

Outright: Rickie Fowler +10209 (0.1 Units) – Kalshi

Outright: Blades Brown +11527 (0.1 Units) – Kalshi

Outright: Chandler Phillips +13233 (0.1 Units) – Kalshi

Outright: William Mouw +18418 (0.05 Units) – Kalshi

Outright: Mac Meissner +5500 (0.2 Units) – FanDuel

Outright: Chris Gotterup +350 (1 Unit) – DraftKings

Outright: Lee Hodges +825 (0.25 Units) – DraftKings

Outright: Chris Gotterup +190 (2 Units) – FanDuel

PGA Bets for the 2026 Travelers Championship:

Last week sucked for two reasons. Beginning on Thursday, we got screwed by weather as far as our first-round bets were concerned. We liked the AM golfers because the wind was supposed to be stronger when the PM guys were set to tee off. However, there was a 2-hour delay for fog, so the AM guys got the brunt of the heavy winds, and then the PM golfers were able to benefit from calmer conditions later toward the evening.

I also misdiagnosed Shinnecock Hills. They widened the fairway, but I still thought accuracy was very important because of the missed fairway penalty. It turns out there was barely a missed fairway penalty at all. On one hole on Sunday, Wyndham Clark hit the ball in the rough twice, and he still managed to save par. This threw off our hole model, so we naturally didn’t get to guys like Clark, whom we had been betting aggressively the past month-and-a-half, because he was dinged for negative driving accuracy.

Hopefully we can diagnose this next course correctly. That course would be TPC River Highlands, home of the Travelers Championship. It was once known as one of the easiest courses on tour – Scottie Scheffler won in 2024 at -22 – but they made it more challenging last year with thicker rough that produced a harsher missed fairway penalty. TPC River Highlands is a short course with a missed fairway penalty, so driving accuracy is very important. Even more significant is that the greens are small, so approach play and scrambling are extremely important. Putting is factored in as well, but not nearly as much as it was at Shinnecock.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Travelers Championship:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Matt Fitzpatrick
3. Tommy Fleetwood
4. Si Woo Kim
5. Aaron Rai
6. Russell Henley
7. Cameron Young
8. Justin Thomas
9. Viktor Hovland
10. Ludvig Aberg
11. J.J. Spaun
12. Xander Schauffele
13. Ben Griffin
14. Corey Conners
15. Patrick Cantlay
16. Bud Cauley
17. Alex Fitzpatrick
18. Collin Morikawa
19. Wyndham Clark
20. Hideki Matsuyama

Scottie Scheffler to win the 2026 Travelers Championship +??? (TBA)
We will likely be betting Scottie Scheffler at some point on Friday or Saturday, assuming he doesn’t go nuclear on Thursday. Scheffler has struggled at the beginning of each tournament this year, so I’ll be hoping for something like +1000 after Round 1. Scheffler has shown that he can come close to hurdling huge deficits this year. We saw this at the Masters, for example. Scheffler won this tournament at -22 in 2024, and given that the course is now more difficult, that can only benefit him because there’s more of a skill-separation factor.

Because we’re planning to bet Scheffler, we’re going to enter the Without Scheffler market once again to set up a potential double win.

Betting TBA Units to win TBA (to win +???) at ???

Tommy Fleetwood to win the 2026 Travelers Championship without Scheffler +1500 (DraftKings)
I only had some interest in Tommy Fleetwood at +1200 at BetMGM and then a bit more at +1300 at FanDuel, but then I saw him posted at +1500 on DraftKings. For once, he wasn’t the favorite in the Without Scheffler market. Fleetwood projects extremely well at this course. He finished second here last season, and it’s easy to see why. Among the golfers in this field, he ranks sixth in accuracy and tied for 14th in approach. I’m confident that Fleetwood, who has five top-eight finishes this year, will be among the leaders at the end, so at the very least, we could have a nice hedging opportunity.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 22.5 (to win without Scheffler +1500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Matt Fitzpatrick to win the 2026 Travelers Championship without Scheffler +1900 (DraftKings)
Matt Fitzpatrick is No. 2 in my model. He’s extremely accurate off the tee, he’s terrific with his irons, and his short game is excellent. Of all the golfers in this field, he’s tied for second in approach and ranked No. 1 in around-the-green play. He has three wins and two second-place finishes this year. Fitzpatrick has finished in the top eight in two of his five previous majors, so we know that he can compete on the highest level.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 28.5 (to win without Scheffler +1900) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

J.J. Spaun to win the 2026 Travelers Championship without Scheffler +4500 (BetRivers)
J.J. Spaun, winner of the Texas Open earlier this year, has almost everything you could want from a golfer at TPC River Highlands. Among the golfers in this field, he’s 10th in driving accuracy, tied for second in approach, and a doable 29th in around-the-green play. I said he “almost” has everything you want because he stinks at putting, but as I wrote in the introduction above, putting isn’t as significant at this course as it is in other tournaments. Spaun is definitely worth a shot at 45/1.

Betting 1 Unit to win 45 (to win without Scheffler +4500) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers

Alex Fitzpatrick to win the 2026 Travelers Championship without Scheffler +5000 (DraftKings)
We’re betting both Fitzpatrick brothers at the Travelers. Alex Fitzpatrick has been terrific since joining the PGA Tour a couple of months ago. He’s been one of the most accurate golfers off the tee, tying for 10th among the players in this field in that regard. He’s also tied for 18th in approach. He has three top-nine finishes, including fourth at the Truist and sixth at the Memorial. I see no reason why he couldn’t win the Travelers.

Betting 1 Unit to win 50 (to win without Scheffler +5000) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Corey Conners to win the 2026 Travelers Championship without Scheffler +9000 (BetRivers)
We have two longshots this week. Corey Conners, at 90/1, is outstanding value. It’s tough to play him most weeks because he lacks driving distance and struggles on the greens, but those two areas are mitigated at TPC River Highlands, where he finished ninth a couple of years ago. Conners is one of the most accurate golfers off the tee, ranking fourth in driving accuracy. He’s also tied for 14th in approach.

Betting 1 Unit to win 90 (to win without Scheffler +9000) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers
Brandt Snedeker to win the 2026 Travelers Championship without Scheffler +37000 (DraftKings)
OK, here’s our ultra longshot. Brandt Snedeker!? Yeah! Snedeker is 370/1 even though he won a tournament earlier this year. Granted, it was just the Myrtle Beach Open, which might as well be called Goofy Golf Open, but still. The selling point here is that while Snedeker, at 45, lacks any sort of power off the tee, he’s extremely strong when it comes to driving accuracy. Among the golfers in this field, Snedeker is seventh in accuracy, and he’s also tied for 26th in around-the-green play. His approach has been up and down this year, but his irons have been hot lately. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his previous six tournaments.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 185 (to win without Scheffler +37000) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Travelers Championship:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Travelers Championship:

Matt Fitzpatrick +3000 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel

Maverick McNealy +4500 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Ben Griffin +4500 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Aaron Rai +4600 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Min Woo Lee +5000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Alex Fitzpatrick +5000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Hideki Matsuyama +5300 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Gary Woodland +5500 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Eric Cole +6000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Alex Smalley +6600 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Ryan Fox +7000 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Nick Taylor +8000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Tony Finau +8000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Tom Hoge +12500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Brandt Snedeker +15000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Hedge: Scottie Scheffler +210 (1.5 Units) – DraftKings

PGA Bets for the 2026 U.S. Open:

The Canadian Open was a disaster. We had multiple chances to hit our first-round leader bets, but all of our players missed easy putts at the end of the round. That’s essentially what transpired on Sunday. We had Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, and Ryan Fox all in contention, but none of them could hit a putt. Burns, the best putter on tour, had his worst putting performance of the past four months.

Hopefully the U.S. Open is more fruitful. The U.S. Open is hosted at Shinnecock Hills this year. Shinnecock is one of the toughest golf courses in America. The 2018 U.S. Open was held at this course, and the winner was Brooks Koepka at +1. This was a ridiculous winning score, so the USGA responded by widening the fairways. This will make things a little bit easier, but the howling winds and the complex greens will still present a huge issue for the entire field.

With the greens being so small, approach is king at Shinnecock. Scrambling matters as well, and even though the greens have been widened, driving accuracy will still play a major role because there’s still a harsh missed fairway penalty because of the very thick rough. You don’t want to bet golfers who will just spray the ball all over the place. That is why Rory McIlroy is so low in our model.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 U.S. Open:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Matt Fitzpatrick
3. Russell Henley
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Si Woo Kim
6. Jon Rahm
7. Viktor Hovland
8. Cameron Young
9. Patrick Cantlay
10. J.J. Spaun
11. Xander Schauffele
12. Andrew Putnam
13. Aaron Rai
14. Patrick Reed
15. Hideki Matsuyama
16. Ludvig Aberg
17. Justin Thomas
18. Rory McIlroy
19. Collin Morikawa
20. Alex Fitzpatrick

Scottie Scheffler is worth betting this week because he’s going for the career grand slam. This is also a great course for him. Scheffler hasn’t been at his best this season, but he’s come very close to winning so many events. This is a nice opportunity to buy low, but I want to do so after the first round because he’s been poor on Thursdays this year.

Because I will likely be betting Scheffler at some point, we will once again be playing the Without Scheffler market.

Scottie Scheffler to win the 2026 U.S. Open +1840 (BetMGM)
We will likely be betting Scottie Scheffler at some point on Friday or Saturday, assuming he doesn’t go nuclear on Thursday. Scheffler has struggled at the beginning of each tournament this year, so I’ll be hoping for something like +1000 after Round 1. Scheffler has shown that he can come close to hurdling huge deficits this year. We saw this at the Masters, for example. Scheffler is going for the career slam, and this course sets up extremely well for him, so I want some exposure to him.

Update: Wyndham Clark is somehow sitting at -7, but Shinnecock is a tough course, so he could falter on Saturday or Sunday. We’re getting +1840 with Scottie Scheffler at BetMGM, boosted 15 percent. We’ll take a shot on him at this price.

Betting 1 Unit to win 18.4 (to win +1840) at BetMGM

Matt Fitzpatrick to win the 2026 U.S. Open without Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Schauffele +1550 (DraftKings)
I know I said I was playing the Without Scheffler market, but Matt Fitzpatrick is +1600 to win without Scheffler, and +1550 to win without Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele at DraftKings, so we’ll be going with the latter price because of the added protection in exchange for a very small fee.

Fitzpatrick is No. 2 in my model. He’s extremely accurate off the tee, he’s terrific with his irons, and his short game is excellent. He has three wins and two second-place finishes this year, including last week’s runner-up placement at the Canadian Open. Fitzpatrick has finished in the top eight in two of his five previous majors, so we know that he can compete on the highest level.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 22.75 (to win without Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Schauffele +1550) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Cameron Young to win the 2026 U.S. Open without Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm +1600 (FanDuel)
We’ve been betting on Cameron Young often this year. He’s had a great season except for his previous two events, but he was sick at the PGA Championship and may have had lingering effects at the Memorial. Young isn’t the most accurate off the tee, but he can hit fairways frequently if he takes some power off of his swing, which I assume he’ll do at this tournament. Young is also one of the top approach players in this field. He’s great around the greens, and his putting has improved this year. He’s finished in the top four of two of the past four majors, so he’s been on the cusp of winning a major for the first time in his career.

Betting 1.25 Units to win 20 (to win without Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm +1600) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Patrick Reed to win the 2026 U.S. Open without Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Schauffele +3100 (DraftKings)
I’m adding Patrick Reed. After digging into him, I think he’s a great bet to win without the big guns at 31/1. Reed hasn’t played golf outside of the majors since March, so he’s had all the time in the world to prepare for Shinnecock. Reed’s had great success at recent majors – top 12 in three of the previous six majors – and his traits line up extremely well for this course. His accuracy off the tee is solid, while his approach, around-the-green play, and putting are all outstanding. He’s won twice this year on the European tour, and he’s gotten top 12 in both majors. I’m also betting him to be first-round leader.

Betting 1 Unit to win 31 (to win without Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Schauffele +4025) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Russell Henley to win the 2026 U.S. Open without Scheffler +3500 (BetMGM)
Russell Henley is another golfer who’s been on the cusp of winning his first major. He’s finished in the top 10 of three of the past four majors, including third at the Masters this year. He recently won the Charles Schwab, and he projects well at Shinnecock. Henley is one of the most accurate golfers off the tee, and his approach and scrambling are both terrific. His putter can be inconsistent, but he’s gained strokes on the greens in eight of his previous 11 tournaments.

Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win without Scheffler +3500) at BetMGM

Si Woo Kim to win the 2026 U.S. Open without Scheffler +3500 (BetMGM/BetRivers)
Si Woo Kim is having a fantastic season. He hasn’t won yet, but he has five top-four placements, including second at the Byron Nelson, third at the RBC Heritage, and third at the Phoenix Open. He’s one of the most accurate golfers off the tee, and his approach ranks very high in this field. Putting is often an issue with him, but Kim has seemingly corrected this area of his game because he’s gained strokes on the greens in seven of his previous nine tournaments. Perhaps Kim will finally get over the hump – or finish second behind Scheffler.

Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win without Scheffler +3500) at BetMGM

Viktor Hovland to win the 2026 U.S. Open without Scheffler +4000 (BetMGM/BetRivers)
Viktor Hovland won the 2023 pro tour, but fell on hard times after that. However, there have been signs that he’s breaking out of his slump. He finished third at the Canadian Open and was third at last year’s U.S. Open. Hovland’s accuracy off the tee has been remarkable lately, and he’s one of the best approach players in this field. His putter can be inconsistent, but he’s gained strokes on the greens in six of his previous nine tournaments.

Betting 1 Unit to win 40 (to win without Scheffler +4000) at BetMGM
Andrew Putnam to win the 2026 U.S. Open without Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Schauffele +20000 (DraftKings)
We nearly won with Andrew Putnam +15000 at the Texas Open, so hopefully we’ll have better luck this time. Putnam has no power off the tee, but that shouldn’t matter at this tournament. He makes up for his lacking power with great driving accuracy and around-the-green play. His approach game is usually solid as well. I can’t tell you about any of his great successes at majors because he hasn’t had any, but that’s why he’s 200/1 to win without the big guns. However, he’s having a solid season, and he’s made the cut in his previous four majors, so perhaps we’ll be able to hedge with him like we were able to at the Texas Open.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 100 (to win without Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Schauffele +20000) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 U.S. Open:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 U.S. Open:

Cameron Young +3233 (0.5 Units) – Kalshi

Tommy Fleetwood +3360 (0.5 Units) – Kalshi

Sam Burns +4137 (0.4 Units) – Kalshi

Si Woo Kim +4500 (0.4 Units) – BetMGM

Chris Gotterup +5394 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Patrick Reed +5394 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Kurt Kitayama +6000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Maverick McNealy +7094 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Rickie Fowler +9245 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Sahith Theegala +10209 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Daniel Berger +10209 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Tom Kim +11527 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Jackson Suber +12500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Nick Taylor +13233 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Adrien Dumont De Chassart +15284 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Sam Stevens +550 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings

PGA Bets for the 2026 Canadian Open:

We had a couple of top-10 finishers at the Memorial, including Tommy Fleetwood. Unfortunately, Fleetwood choked down the stretch, per usual. There were no hedging opportunities, even when Fleetwood was the betting favorite on Sunday for about a half hour, because there were so many golfers in contention. J.T. Poston ended up winning, which was astonishing because he hadn’t placed above 21st in any tournament all year. Muirfield Village is a golf course that separates talented golfers, yet a pedestrian golfer ended up winning somehow. It just goes to show how much variance there is in this sport.

Up next is the Canadian Open, which I’ve been looking forward to all year. At this time last season, I had a dream that Ryan Fox would end up winning the Canadian Open, so we bet him, and that’s exactly what happened. I haven’t had any similar dreams so far this week, but I’ll let you know if that changes.

The Canadian Open, hosted by TPC Toronto, is the opposite of what we saw at Muirfield Village. Whereas Muirfield Village severely penalized inaccurate golfers, TPC Toronto does no such thing. The fairways are so wide that it’s almost impossible to hit the ball into the rough. TPC Toronto is a long course with huge greens, so we’re looking at driving distance, approach, and putting.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Canadian Open:

1. Sam Burns
2. Nicolai Hojgaard
3. Aldrich Potgieter
4. Kristoffer Reitan
5. Wyndham Clark
6. Michael Brennan
7. Matt Fitzpatrick
8. Matti Schmid
9. Tommy Fleetwood
10. Max Greyserman
11. Michael Thorbjornsen
12. Brooks Koepka
13. Jacob Bridgeman
14. Keith Mitchell
15. Tony Finau
16. John Keefer
17. Stephan Jaegar
18. Ryan Fox
19. Max Homa
20. Eric Cole

Sam Burns to win the 2026 Canadian Open +1738 (Kalshi)
While we won with Ryan Fox last year, I’ll admit that Sam Burns should have prevailed. Burns missed a million easy putts on that Sunday, which was very shocking to see because he’s the best putter on tour. Burns projects extremely well at TPC Toronto, and he’s had some great finishes recently. He was fourth at the Memorial, seventh at the Masters, and 13th at the Players. All three fields were much tougher than this one, so I like Burns to win outright.

Betting 1.25 Units to win 21.73 (to win +1738) at Kalshi

Wyndham Clark to win the 2026 Canadian Open +2497 (Kalshi)
Wyndham Clark won the U.S. Open a few years ago, but had struggled for the most part since then. He seemingly lost his confidence, and he hit rock bottom when he got kicked out of last season’s PGA Championship for destroying the locker room. However, Clark has found his way this year. He’s always been powerful off the tee, but he’s massively improved his approach play and putting skills. The result was a win at the Byron Nelson and a third-place finish at last weekend’s Memorial. Clark’s ability to thrive with his driver-approach-putter setup makes him one of the favorites to win this tournament.

Betting 1 Unit to win 24.97 (to win +2497) at Kalshi

Kristoffer Reitan to win the 2026 Canadian Open +2800 (BetMGM)
Kristoffer Reitan is a great all-around golfer with no weaknesses in his game. He’s particularly strong when it comes to driving distance, approach, and putting, which happen to be the three key traits to winning at TPC Toronto. Reitan has been great since the beginning of April. He won the Truist, and he also finished sixth at the Memorial, 10th at the Texas Open, and second at the team-event Zurich Classic. His great year should continue on a course that suits his strengths.

Betting 1 Unit to win 28 (to win +2800) at BetMGM

Nicolai Hojgaard to win the 2026 Canadian Open +3500 (BetMGM)
Here we go with Nicolai Hojgaard again. Hojgaard has choked in some tournaments this year, but he’s had some great finishes. He placed second at the Truist, second at the Houston Open, third at the Phoenix Open, and sixth at the Cognizant. I love Hojgaard for this course because he’s a bomber who won’t be penalized for his inaccuracy, and he’s also usually strong on approach and with his putter.

Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) at BetMGM

Ryan Fox to win the 2026 Canadian Open +8374 (Kalshi)
You know, maybe I haven’t had a dream about the Canadian Open this year because we’re supposed to bet Ryan Fox again. Fox had some decent finishes earlier in the season – namely seventh at the Genesis – but had his struggles after that because of some poor putting performances, which is unusual for him. However, we saw him break out of that slump last weekend with his best putting performance of the year. He finished 27th because he was heavily penalized with his poor accuracy off the tee, but that won’t matter at TPC Toronto. If Fox has truly reversed his putting slump, he’ll have a fine chance of repeating as champion of this event.

Betting 1 Unit to win 83.74 (to win +8374) at Kalshi

Aldrich Potgieter to win the 2026 Canadian Open +10000 (FanDuel)
At first glance, I didn’t think I would be betting Aldrich Potgieter. He’s the most powerful driver of the ball at this tournament, and his approach game is adequate. However, he’s usually not good on the greens, and I don’t normally like to bet bad putters in what should be a birdie fest. What has changed is that Potgieter has quietly gained strokes on the greens in his previous four tournaments. If that continues, he’ll be able to contend on this bomber-friendly course.

Betting 1 Unit to win 100 (to win +10000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Matti Schmid to win the 2026 Canadian Open +15284 (Kalshi)
Matti Schmid is powerful off the tee and can putt well, but what about his approach? He’s usually not very good with his irons, but that has changed recently. Schmid has gained strokes on approach in seven of his previous nine tournaments. This improved approach play has allowed him to finish ninth at the Cognizant, fifth at the Puerto Rico Open, 10th at Zurich, and even fourth at the PGA Championship. It’s astonishing that he’s north of 150/1 at Kalshi.

Betting 1 Unit to win 152.84 (to win +15284) at Kalshi

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Canadian Open:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Canadian Open:

Bud Cauley +5500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Michael Brennan +5500 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Keith Mitchell +6000 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Tony Finau +6600 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Mac Meissner +6600 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Corey Conners +7500 (0.3 Units) – Bookmaker

Davis Thompson +7651 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Ricky Castillo +8000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Taylor Moore +8000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Stephan Jaeger +8374 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Zach Bauchou +8800 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Matti Schmid +9000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Lee Hodges +10000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Beau Hossler +10209 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Kevin Roy +11500 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Sam Ryder +13233 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

PGA Bets for the 2026 Memorial Tournament:

Man, what a frustrating Sunday. We had five of our seven bets in true contention at the Charles Schwab Classic, but all of them had a poor fourth round. It was Murphy’s Law for us, as none of our golfers could drain a putt to save their lives. J.J. Spaun was particularly infuriating, as he missed 4-, 6-, and 8-foot putts. Hitting just two of those would have forced him into the playoff with Russell Henley and Eric Cole.

Fortunately, we didn’t lose very much because of our immaculate hedging. Because we had so many golfers in contention, we were able to create an elaborate hedging strategy that paid us well enough on Russell Henley to approach the break-even point. Hedging is incredibly important, and don’t let stupid people on X tell you otherwise. If hedge fund managers do it for securities, then we should do it for something way more volatile like golf bets.

We move forward to the Memorial Tournament, which is a 72-man field hosted by Muirfield Village Golf Club. Muirfield was designed by Jack Nicklaus to mimic Augusta National. The greens are tiny at this course, so approach and around-the-green play are more important than anything. However, accuracy off the tee is vital as well because this is some of the thickest rough we’ll see on tour this year. There’s definitely a missed fairway penalty, so reckless bombers will struggle at this course.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Memorial Tournament:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Matt Fitzpatrick
3. Russell Henley
4. Si Woo Kim
5. Ludvig Aberg
6. Cameron Young
7. Tommy Fleetwood
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Patrick Cantlay
11. Rory McIlroy
12. J.J. Spaun
13. Aaron Rai
14. Kurt Kitayama
15. Alex Smalley
16. Justin Thomas
17. Shane Lowry
18. Corey Conners
19. Adam Scott
20. Seppulon Straka

It should come as no surprise that Scottie Scheffler is No. 1 in my model, given that he’s won this tournament two years in a row. What might be a bit of a surprise is that he has earned the best score any golfer has gotten at any tournament all year in my model. The difference between him and No. 2 Matt Fitzpatrick is the difference between Fitzpatrick and No. 12 J.J. Spaun. That’s how much of an advantage Scheffler has at this course.

I plan on betting Scheffler to win, but not prior to the tournament. Scheffler, for whatever reason, has been poor on Thursdays this year, so I’d like to bet on him after Round 1 is complete.

Because we’ll be betting on Scheffler – assuming he doesn’t go uncharacteristically insane during Round 1 – we’re going to play the Without Scheffler market. I’d urge you to do the same. Scheffler has way too much of an edge at this course to bet other golfers, and utilizing the Without Scheffler market will allow us to set up for a potential double win.

Scottie Scheffler to win the 2026 Memorial Tournament +850 (FanDuel)
I’m reserving this spot for Scottie Scheffler, the two-time reigning champion of the Memorial. As I wrote above, Scheffler has earned the best score in my model of any golfer at any tournament this year. However, he has struggled during opening rounds this year, so my plan is to bet him after Thursday unless he goes absolutely nuclear to begin the tournament.

I am now going to bet Scottie Scheffler to win the Memorial to potentially set up a double win. As predicted, he had a poor Round 1, but he could easily bounce back into contention. I’m going to start with one unit and may add another unit or two later.

Betting 1 Units to win 8.5 (to win +850) at 8.5

Ludvig Aberg to win the 2026 Memorial Tournament without Scheffler +1300 (DraftKings)
Ludvig Aberg is a renowned choke artist, but remember, he doesn’t have to prevail at this tournament for us to cash. Aberg has been near the top of the leaderboard in many recent tournaments, finishing fourth at the PGA Championship, eighth at the Truist, fourth at the RBC Heritage, fifth at both the Texas Open and the Players, and third at the Arnold Palmer. Aberg should once again be in contention this week. He has an elite approach game, and his short game is strong. He’s not the most accurate player off the tee, but he’s posted negative driving-accuracy numbers in just one tournament since February.

Betting 1 Unit to win 13 (to win without Scheffler +1300) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Cameron Young to win the 2026 Memorial Tournament without Scheffler +1400 (FanDuel/BetMGM)
We’ve been betting Cameron Young aggressively this season, and it’s paid off for us. Young has greatly improved his accuracy off the tee and his putting this season, which has allowed him to win twice on tour this year. He also has a pair of third-place finishes. While Young has bolstered his accuracy and putting, his strengths continue to be approach and around-the-green play, which bodes well for him at this course.

Betting 1 Unit to win 14 (to win without Scheffler +1400) at FanDuel/BetMGM Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Matt Fitzpatrick to win the 2026 Memorial Tournament without Scheffler +1900 (FanDuel)
Matt Fitzpatrick is another golfer we’ve been betting aggressively this year. He’s won thrice if you count the Zurich team event. Fitzpatrick looks great here because of his elite approach and around-the-green play. Fitzpatrick is also deadly accurate off the tee, which gives him a leg up on Aberg and Young. Despite that, Fitzpatrick’s odds are much friendlier. He’s No. 2 in my model, so I think he’s the best bet on the board at +1900.

Betting 1.25 Units to win 23.75 (to win without Scheffler +1900) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Si Woo Kim to win the 2026 Memorial Tournament without Scheffler +2000 (BetRivers)
Si Woo Kim is not someone I bet on regularly. In fact, this is the second time we’re doing so pre-tournament this year. The reason why I usually don’t like Kim very much is because he’s a lousy putter. However, there are two things to keep in mind. First, while tee-to-green at Muirfield Village is very challenging, the greens are not. These are simple greens, so putting won’t be much of a factor this week. Second, Kim has improved his putting recently. He’s quietly gained strokes putting in six of his previous eight tournaments. He finished third at RBC, fourth at Cadillac, and second at Byron Nelson as a result of this improved putting. If Kim can once again gain strokes putting, he’ll be in position to win because of his elite accuracy, approach, and around-the-green play.

Betting 1 Unit to win 20 (to win without Scheffler +2000) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers

Tommy Fleetwood to win the 2026 Memorial Tournament without Scheffler +2600 (DraftKings)
I was shocked to see this number. Given the prices of other golfers, I assumed Tommy Fleetwood would be in the neighborhood of +1800. Yet, we’re getting him at 26/1, which is outstanding value. Fleetwood, who has five top-10 finishes since February, is one of the best technical golfers on tour. He’s great when it comes to accuracy, approach, and around-the-green play. He’s coming off a missed cut at the PGA Championship, so perhaps that’ll motivate him to play better at this tournament.

Betting 1 Unit to win 26 (to win without Scheffler +2600) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

J.J. Spaun to win the 2026 Memorial Tournament without Scheffler +3300 (DraftKings)
Here we go again. I won’t blame any of you for passing on J.J. Spaun after last week’s miserable putting performance. However, what I wrote about Si Woo Kim applies to Spaun. This course doesn’t emphasize putting at all. If putting won’t matter very much, Spaun can certainly compete to be No. 2 on the leaderboard behind Scottie Scheffler. He’s deadly accurate off the tee, and his approach play ranks second in this field, behind only Scheffler.

Betting 1 Unit to win 33 (to win without Scheffler +3300) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Memorial Tournament:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Memorial Tournament:

Cameron Young +2654 (0.5 Units) – Kalshi

Tommy Fleetwood +3791 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Alex Smalley +4500 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Rickie Fowler +4752 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Hideki Matsuyama +4806 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Kurt Kitayama +5000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Chris Gotterup +5394 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Jordan Spieth +6111 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Ryo Hisatsune +6600 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Bud Cauley +7651 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Corey Conners +8000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Nick Taylor +8004 (0.3 Units) – Bookmaker

Sam Stevens +8374 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Daniel Berger +9000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

PGA Bets for the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge:

Congratulations to those who followed us on the Wyndham Clark victory last week. We got him at 40/1 to win without Scottie Scheffler, and he did so by nearly breaking Scheffler’s course record at -30. I guess the $20 million in renovations didn’t make the course any easier!

It was great to see Clark win, especially given that he was the best putter among the leaders on Sunday. I expressed my disdain for the field last week because it was littered with bad putters in what was expected to be a birdie fest. Calling the winner feels great, despite the hedge drama I had on X during the final round. It’s amazing how some people don’t understand how hedging works or what equity is.

The next tournament is the Charles Schwab Challenge, which is hosted by Colonial Country Club. Colonial is a much more difficult golf course than TPC Craig Ranch. The fairways are narrow, so accuracy off the tee is significant. Even more prominent is how small the greens are. Approach play matters the most for that reason. Scrambling is important as well. And as always, I’ll apply a penalty to golfers who putt poorly.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge:

1. Ludvig Aberg
2. J.J. Spaun
3. Russell Henley
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Justin Thomas
6. Andrew Putnam
7. Alex Smalley
8. Rickie Fowler
9. Ryan Gerard
10. Ryo Hisatsune
11. Tom Kim
12. Brian Harman
13. Andrew Novak
14. Keegan Bradley
15. Matthew McCarty
16. Harry Hall
17. John Parry
18. Mac Meissner
19. Davis Thompson
20. Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Ludvig Aberg is No. 1 in my model. I hate his odds this week, however, so I won’t be betting him unless we get a better number at some point during the weekend. Perhaps this will hurt us, but Aberg is a renowned choke artist, so he’s difficult to trust at around 10/1.

Justin Thomas to win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge +2431 (Kalshi)
The odds on some golfers are all over the place this week. For example, Justin Thomas is listed at +1500 on Caesars, but he’s +2431 on Kalshi. Getting 25/1 odds on an extremely talented golfer like Thomas is way too good to pass up. Thomas isn’t known as an accurate golfer, which might be why some markets are pricing him so highly. However, his accuracy has improved over the past three tournaments, including the PGA Championship, where he finished fourth. Thomas’ best attributes are approach and around-the-green play, making him a very intriguing bet at +2431.

Betting 1 Unit to win 24.31 (to win +2431) at Kalshi Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

J.J. Spaun to win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge +3200 (DraftKings)
I usually don’t bet J.J. Spaun because he’s a poor putter. However, I’ve applied the harshest putting penalty to him, and yet he’s still second in the model! This is because Spaun is the best approach player in this field, excluding Aberg. Spaun is also very accurate off the tee and is strong around the green (just not on it.) Spaun has been great this year, winning the Texas Open and finishing fifth at the Truist. He’s coming off a missed cut at the PGA Championship, so I expect him to be focused this weekend.

Betting 1 Unit to win 32 (to win +3200) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Hideki Matsuyama to win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge +3360 (Kalshi)
It’s incredibly rare that we can find such a bargain on a great golfer like Hideki Matsuyama in a limited field like this. Matsuyama isn’t driving the ball particularly well right now, but Colonial is a second-shot golf course. This is a huge boon for Matsuyama, who is ranked as the third-best approach player in this field. Matsuyama’s short game is also excellent. He’s an outstanding bet at around 33/1.

Betting 1 Unit to win 33.6 (to win +3360) at Kalshi
Alex Smalley to win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge +3500 (DraftKings)
Alex Smalley has been red-hot lately, finishing in the top seven in three of his previous four tournaments, including a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship. Smalley is strong in every facet. He’s accurate off the tee, he’s strong around the green, and he putts well. His best trait is his approach, which ranks fifth among all golfers at this event. He’s been particularly sharp with his irons, which bodes well for him at Colonial.

Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Andrew Putnam to win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge +7094 (Kalshi)
This is a late addition because I saw that Andrew Putnam had withdrawn from this tournament, but that ended up being fake news. I was disappointed to see the withdraw from Putnam, so I’m excited to bet him now that he’s definitely in the field. Putnam has no power to his game, but he won’t need that at Colonial. He’s very accurate off the tee and great around the green. His approach play has also spiked recently. Putnam broke our hearts at the Texas Open, where we had him at +14000, so perhaps he’ll make amends and win this tournament.

Betting 1 Unit to win 70.94 (to win +7094) at Kalshi

Ryan Gerard to win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge +7094 (Kalshi)
Ryan Gerard got off to a hot start this season, finishing second at both the Sony Open and the AmEx. He hasn’t done particularly well since then, but that could change at this tournament. As mentioned earlier, Colonial is a second-shot course, and Gerard is one of the best approach players in the field, ranking fourth in that category. He’s also accurate off the tee, which should help a bit. Gerard’s short game sucks, but there’s a chance that his terrific approach play carries him to victory. He’s worth a shot at around 71/1.

Betting 1 Unit to win 70.94 (to win +7094) at Kalshi

Tom Kim to win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge +8374 (Kalshi)
We bet Tom Kim last week. It didn’t work out, though he at least made the cut. Kim is a better fit at this golf course anyway because of his strong approach, which has been extremely hot since the beginning of February. Kim is also very accurate off the tee and solid around the green. Putting can be a wild ride; he’s had some miserable putting performances lately, but he’s also gained strokes putting in nearly half of his tournaments this season, so it’s impossible to know what to expect.

Betting 1 Unit to win 83.74 (to win +8374) at Kalshi

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge:

Justin Thomas +4572 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Alex Smalley +5081 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Hideki Matsuyama +5152 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Sungjae Im +5500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Michael Thorbjornen +6566 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Mac Meissner +6566 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Ryan Gerard +6600 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Andrew Novak +6900 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Andrew Putnam +7000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Chris Kirk +7500 (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (0.3 Units) – FanDuel

Adrien Dumont de Chassart +9000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Max McGreevy +9000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

John Parry +9000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Austin Eckroat +9800 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Ricky Castillo +10000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Sam Ryder +10000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Hedge: Kevin Yu +780 (1 Unit)

Hedge: Lee Hodges -152 (2 Units)

We’re taking some shots here on the first-round leader. Almost all of these golfers rank highly in “birdie or better percentage” or have a good track record in the first round. These golfers are all teeing off in the morning when the conditions will be better.

Round 2-4 Bets at the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge:
Amazingly, all but one golfer we’ve bet to win this tournament is still in contention (all but two if you don’t count Andrew Putnam, who is technically still alive.) DataGolf says we’re 42.3 percent to win, and hopefully we do so with Ryan Gerard, who is 16.6 percent to win.

This puts us in a great hedging situation, which would be even better if Eric Cole didn’t have his BS -7 during Round 3. Here’s what we’re hedging with to begin Round 4:

Eric Cole +270 (3 Units) – DraftKings
Mac Meissner +943 (1 Unit) – Kalshi
Russell Henley +1000 (1 Unit) – FanDuel/DraftKings
Ludvig Aberg +3360 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi
Michael Thorbjornsen +4036 (0.2 Units) – Kalshi
Michael Brennan +5394 (0.15 Units) – Kalshi
Nico Echavarria +6600 (0.12 Units) – BetRivers
Akshay Bhatia +7651 (0.1 Units) – Kalshi
Mackenzie Hughes +7651 (0.1 Units) – Kalshi
Brian Harman +9425 (0.08 Units) – Kalshi
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10209 (0.07 Units) – Kalshi

Before you call me a madman, here’s what the prize structure looks for everyone:

Cole $300 810 – 312 = 498
Meissner $100 943 – 512 = 431
Henley $100 1000 – 512 = 488
Aberg $30 1010 – 582 = 418
Thorbjornsen $20 830 – 592 = 238
Brennan $15 810 – 597 = 213
Echavarria $12 792 – 600 = 192
Bhatia $10 765 – 602 = 163
Hughes $10 765 – 602 = 163
Harman $8 740 – 604 = 136
Bezuidenhout $7 719 – 605 = 114

We’re using $612 of our equity, and I’m comfortable going up to $1,000, so look for other possible hedges in my X posts if I can’t post them on the site.

Hedge No. 2 for today: Eric Cole +143 (1 Unit) at BetMGM, boosted 15%

Making things more even for our hedges:

Russell Henley -104 (0.1 Units) boosted on FanDuel
Russell Henley -130 (0.9 Units) on FanDuel

PGA Bets for the 2026 Byron Nelson:

The PGA Championship was a huge disappointment. None of the golfers we bet on could putt to save their lives, yet the winner of the tournament, Aaron Rai, managed to putt like a god despite not being remotely good on the greens. It was a frustrating weekend to say the least.

We move on from one crappy tournament to another one, which is the Byron Nelson. The Byron Nelson, hosted at TPC Craig Ranch, is such an easy course that Scottie Scheffler shot -31 last year, breaking a course record. So, if you’re wondering if Scheffler to win at +175ish is absurd, perhaps it’s not.

It’s worth noting that TPC Craig Ranch underwent a renovation since last year’s debacle. They grew out the rough, so there’s actually a missed fairway penalty. Still, this is one of the simplest course layouts you’ll ever see. This should still be a birdie fest. Accuracy will mean more than it has in the past, but at 7,500 or so yards, TPC Craig Ranch should still favor power hitters. Approach and putting will be crucial as well. Given that this is a birdie fest, I don’t want to bet on poor putters.

But here’s the problem: This field is littered with horrible putters. This field, in general, is atrocious. Outside of Scottie Scheffler, Si Woo Kim, and a couple of others, this field absolutely sucks. So, you’re going to see some weird names on our card this week.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Byron Nelson:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Si Woo Kim
3. Pierceson Coody
4. Rasmus Hojgaard
5. Wyndham Clark
6. Tom Kim
7. Ryo Hisatsune
8. Brooks Koepka
9. Zac Blair
10. Jordan Spieth
11. Michael Thorjornsen
12. Keith Mitchell
13. Blades Brown
14. Ben Kohles
15. Chandler Blanchet
16. Michael Brennan
17. Davis Thompson
18. Cameron Champ
19. Max McGreevy
20. Jordan Smith

Scottie Scheffler is No. 1 in my model, and it’s not very close. I’d like to bet Scheffler at a better number than +175ish, however, so I’ll wait to see if he has another mediocre first round. If we can get +400 or better against this crappy field, I may pull the trigger. Scheffler is coming off a disappointing PGA Championship, but there’s just no competition for him here. The No. 2 guy in the model is currently tweaking out on Red Bull and Tylenol PM.

I don’t want to bet against Scheffler, so we will be playing the without Scheffler market, which still has some surprisingly good odds.

Pierceson Coody to win the 2026 Byron Nelson without Scottie Scheffler +3000 (BetRivers)
Pierceson Coody is a 26-year-old who hasn’t been on tour for very long – this will be a trend with our picks this week – but he can win this tournament, or perhaps finish second behind Scottie Scheffler. Coody has amazing power off the tee and a solid approach game. He’s usually solid on the greens as well, which is important for a birdie fest like this one. Coody finished second at the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this season, tying with Si Woo Kim, who coincidentally is No. 2 in the model this week.

Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +3000) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers

Ryo Hisatsune to win the 2026 Byron Nelson without Scottie Scheffler +3300 (BetRivers)
Ryo Hisatsune is a quality golfer when it comes to his driver, hitting the ball far and accurately enough to contend in this tournament. His approach play has been the best aspect of his game this year. He endured a monthlong lull with his irons, but did well in that regard in the PGA Championship, where he finished 35th. Hisatsune is only 23, but he has four top-10 finishes this year, including second at the Farmers Insurance Open and eighth at Pebble Beach.

Betting 1 Unit to win 33 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +3300) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers

Rasmus Hojgaard to win the 2026 Byron Nelson without Scottie Scheffler +3500 (BetRivers)
Rasmus Hojgaard is another young hot shot (25) who can blast the ball off the tee. His approach game isn’t great, but it’s decent enough to allow him to perform well. He’s also a quality putter, so he has what it takes to contend for the Byron Nelson. Hojgaard has just one top-10 finish this year, but he made the cut at both majors and even finished 16th at the British Open last July.

Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +3500) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers
Wyndham Clark to win the 2026 Byron Nelson without Scottie Scheffler +4000 (BetRivers)
We won betting Wyndham Clark at the U.S. Open a few years ago at around +8000. Those were good times, so perhaps we can experience that again, albeit at lesser odds. Clark is a fierce ball striker off the tee with a quality approach game. He hasn’t seen much success since winning the U.S. Open because of his poor putter, but he’s gained strokes on the green in his previous three events. The improved putting has translated into better finishes from Clark; he was 21st at the Masters and 16th at RBC Heritage, which should translate into a great finish here because the field is so much worse.

Betting 1 Unit to win 40 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +4000) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers

Tom Kim to win the 2026 Byron Nelson without Scottie Scheffler +5000 (BetRivers)
Tom Kim, another 23-year-old, is known as an accurate golfer who thrives with his iron play, but he’s shown some improved power off the tee this year. His putter isn’t amazing, but he’s had just three poor tournaments on the green this year. Kim recently had a sixth-place finish at Myrtle Beach, and he’s someone who has three pro tour victories despite his young age, so we know that he can get it done.

Betting 1 Unit to win 50 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +5000) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers

Blades Brown to win the 2026 Byron Nelson without Scottie Scheffler +5200 (DraftKings)
Blades Brown is the youngest golfer on tour at just 18. His skills are amazing, however, and that has allowed him to finish well at some tournaments. He placed third at the Puerto Rico Open and ninth at Myrtle Beach. He can blast the ball off the tee and perform well with his irons. He’s also solid on the greens. Blades of Steel is going to break out at some point, and I’d rather be early than late.

Betting 1 Unit to win 52 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +5200) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Zac Blair to win the 2026 Byron Nelson without Scottie Scheffler +12500 (BetMGM)
Zac Blair is our super long shot this week. He placed eighth at the Puerto Rico Open earlier this season, and he had a couple of top-10 finishes in the fall. Blair can’t hit the ball far, but he’s very accurate off the tee and performs well with his irons. If I’m right about the renovations emphasizing accuracy off the tee, Blair will have a chance to contend for second behind Scheffler.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 62.5 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +12500) at BetMGM

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Byron Nelson:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Byron Nelson:

Si Woo Kim +2800 (0.5 Units) – BetMGM

Michael Thorbjornsen +5081 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Keith Mitchell +5394 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Rasmus Hojgaard +5500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Wyndham Clark +5500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Michael Brennan +6000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Blades Brown +6566 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Tom Kim +6600 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Stephan Jaegar +7121 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Kevin Roy +7800 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Tony Finau +8000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Doug Ghim +8088 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Karl Vilips +9000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Zac Blair +10500 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Various Hedges (3 Units)

PGA Bets for the 2026 PGA Championship:

Prior to last weekend, we called three consecutive winners with Rory McIlroy at the Masters, Matt Fitzpatrick at the RBC Heritage, and now Cameron Young at the Cadillac Championship. We had a chance at four in a row with Nicolai Hojgaard on Sunday, but he once again choked down the stretch, allowing Kristofer Reitan to prevail even though Reitan is not a very good golfer. His win was inexplicable; he had lost strokes on approach in 10 of his 12 tournaments this season, yet he had his best approach performance of the year by far.

We’ll have to hope for better luck at the PGA Championship, which is being hosted at Aronimink Golf Club. Aronimink, which isn’t too far from my house, is a shorter golf course than what we’ve seen in recent tournaments. Despite Aronimink’s short length, I think distance will play a factor here because most of the holes are just straight and not doglegged, so power hitters will have an advantage. However, accurate players will also get a boost because there are 180 bunkers on this course.

The most important traits will be approach and putting. The 2018 BMW Championship was played at Aronimink, and all of the top finishers thrived in those two categories. The greens at Aronimink are large and very tricky, so getting the ball as close to the hole as possible will be crucial. That may sound obvious, but putting is going to be so difficult at this tournament. I usually just install a penalty in my model for bad putters, but the best putters will need to get a substantial boost at this tournament.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 PGA Championship:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Cameron Young
3. Ludvig Aberg
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Jon Rahm
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Matt Fitzpatrick
8. Collin Morikawa
9. Russell Henley
10. Tommy Fleetwood
11. Sam Burns
12. Rickie Fowler
13. Nicolai Hojgaard
14. Alex Noren
15. Viktor Hovland
16. Patrick Cantlay
17. J.J. Spaun
18. Si Woo Kim
19. Chris Gotterup
20. Harry Hall

Scottie Scheffler is No. 1 in my model, and it’s not very close. Scheffler is the best approach player on the planet. His putting has been great this year, aside from a couple of recent tournaments. Scheffler’s biggest issue, however, has been Round 1. He has gotten off to a slow start all year, so my plan is to live bet him at some point on Friday or Saturday morning.

Because I’ll be betting Scheffler at some point, I’m going to be playing the without Scheffler market in an attempt to set up a double win.

Scottie Scheffler to win the 2026 PGA Championship +590 (BetRivers)
I said that I’m going to bet Scottie Scheffler after Round 1 or Round 2, but I’m going to make a portion of the wager right now for two reasons. First, Scheffler could buck his poor Round 1 trend after preparing for this tournament like Rory McIlroy did for the Masters. Second, there are some promos I want to utilize. BetRivers has an 18-percent boost up to $25, while BetMGM has a 15-percent boost up to $100.

Betting 1 Unit to win 5.17 (to win +517) at BetMGM
Betting 0.25 Units to win 1.48 (to win +590) at BetRivers

Cameron Young to win the 2026 PGA Championship without Scottie Scheffler +1375 (DraftKings)
We’ve been betting Cameron Young often this year, and we’re going to do it again. Young has been incredible this season with two outright victories, a pair of thirds, a seventh, and a 10th. He has great power off the tee, and he’s excellent when it comes to his iron play. He’s doing so well this year because he’s made vast upgrades to his driving accuracy and putting. His improved putting will pay dividends on these tricky greens.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 20.62 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +1375) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Ludvig Aberg to win the 2026 PGA Championship without Scottie Scheffler +2070 (BetMGM)
Ludvig Aberg is known as a very talented golfer who chokes down the stretch, but we won’t have to worry about that if he’s competing with Scottie Scheffler at the very end. In fact, we saw Aberg finish second at the Masters in 2024, only behind Scheffler. Excluding this year’s Masters, Aberg has finished third, fifth, fifth, fourth, and eighth in his previous five tournaments. He should do well at this course because of his great approach play and plus putting ability. His great distance off the tee will put him in position for some short iron work, which could allow him to remain atop the leaderboard.

BetMGM has a 15-percent profit boost up to $100, which takes this line from +1800 to +2070. If you don’t have access to this promo, +1800 is still OK.

Betting 1 Unit to win 20.7 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +2070) at BetMGM

Matt Fitzpatrick to win the 2026 PGA Championship without Scottie Scheffler +2200 (BetRivers)
Matt Fitzpatrick is another golfer we’ve been betting often this year. He’s been incredible this season. He has two outright victories; three if you include the win he had with his brother at the Zurich Classic. He was also second at the Players and ninth at the Phoenix Open. He has what it takes to win at this tournament, given that he’s terrific with his irons and putter. He’s not too shabby off the tee either.

Betting 1 Unit to win 22 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +2200) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers
Tommy Fleetwood to win the 2026 PGA Championship without Scottie Scheffler +2200 (DraftKings)
Tommy Fleetwood has never won a major, but perhaps it’s time. Not only has he sold his soul to the devil (Blackstone); he has some very high finishes this year. He was fourth at Pebble Beach, eighth at the Players, seventh at the Genesis, and fifth at the Truist. He lacks great power off the tee, but he won’t need it at Aronimink because his pristine driving accuracy and approach play will put him in position to win the PGA Championship. Fleetwood had a two-week stretch earlier in the season where he struggled with his putter, but he’s rebounded in that regard recently.

Betting 1 Unit to win 22 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +2200) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Russell Henley to win the 2026 PGA Championship without Scottie Scheffler +5000 (BetMGM)
Russell Henley has never won a major either, but he’s had some very high finishes. In his previous seven majors, he’s finished third, 10th, 10th, fifth, and seventh. He’s one of the most accurate drivers, while his approach play and putting are also great. His lone weakness is a lack of power off the tee, but as mentioned in the introduction, golfers with elite accuracy will have an edge in this tournament. Given Henley’s traits and ability to perform well in big tournaments, he’s a great bargain at 50/1 to win without Scheffler.

Betting 1 Unit to win 50 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +5000) at BetMGM

Rickie Fowler to win the 2026 PGA Championship without Scottie Scheffler +5400 (DraftKings)
Rickie Fowler wasn’t invited to the Masters this year, so perhaps that helped ignite his game because he’s been one of the hottest golfers on tour since the Masters. He finished eighth at the RBC Heritage, ninth at the Cadillac, and second at the Truist. His approach play has been off the charts, and if that continues to be the case, Fowler will be in position to potentially win at Aronimink. It also helps that Fowler has been amazing on the greens this year, losing strokes putting only once. He’s a steal at 54/1 to win without Scheffler.

Betting 1 Unit to win 54 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +5400) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Sam Burns to win the 2026 PGA Championship without Scottie Scheffler +6000 (BetMGM)
Sam Burns is the best putter on tour, so he must be considered to win this tournament. Burns isn’t a one-trick pony either; he’s powerful off the tee, and his approach game is solid. His weak link is around-the-green play, but I don’t think that’ll be much of a factor this week with the greens being so spacious. Like some of the other golfers mentioned, Burns has yet to win a major, but he’s finished seventh in two of his previous three majors, so at 29 years old, perhaps he’s ready to take the next step.

Betting 1 Unit to win 60 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +6000) at BetMGM

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 PGA Championship:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 PGA Championship:

Ludvig Aberg +3500 (0.5 Units) – BetMGM

Xander Schauffele +3791 (0.5 Units) – Kalshi

Ricky Fowler +6000 (0.25 Units) – DraftKings

Min Woo Lee +6000 (0.25 Units) – BetMGM

Sam Burns +6600 (0.25 Units) – BetMGM

Jordan Spieth +7094 (0.25 Units) – Kalshi

Si Woo Kim +7094 (0.25 Units) – Kalshi

Maverick McNealy +8000 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM

Ben Griffin +8000 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM

Gary Woodland +10209 (0.2 Units) – Kalshi

Wyndham Clark +11527 (0.2 Units) – Kalshi

Keith Mitchell +12500 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM

Michael Brennan +12500 (0.2 Units) – DraftKings

Ryo Hisatsune +15000 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM

Bud Cauley +15000 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM

William Mouw +17500 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM

Billy Horschel +18418 (0.2 Units) – Kalshi

Max McGreevy +20000 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM

PGA Bets for the 2026 Truist Championship:

We’ve called three consecutive winners with Rory McIlroy at the Masters, Matt Fitzpatrick at the RBC Heritage, and now Cameron Young at the Cadillac Championship. It was great to not sweat out Round 4 at all, as Young dominated from start to finish.

Let’s go for four in a row at the Truist Championship, which will be played at Quail Hollow. Like Trump National Doral Blue Monster, Quail Hollow is a long golf course. The difference is that driving accuracy doesn’t matter nearly as much because of a wider fairway and fewer water hazards. There are more greenside bunkers at Quail Hollow, so approach means more this week than it did last week. Approach at 175-plus yards is particularly important because of the length of the course. Putting is more important at Quail Hollow, as opposed to the simple greens at the Blue Monster.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Truist Championship:

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Cameron Young
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Matt Fitzpatrick
5. Min Woo Lee
6. Adam Scott
7. Kurt Kitayama
8. Ludvig Aberg
9. Jake Knapp*
10. Nicolai Hojgaard
11. Chris Gotterup
12. Seppulon Straka
13. Hideki Matsuyama
14. Viktor Hovland
15. Si Woo Kim
16. Daniel Berger
17. Justin Rose
18. J.J. Spaun
19. Sam Burns
20. Samuel Stevens

* – Jake Knapp withdrew last week with an injury, so he could still be hurt.

Rory McIlroy is atop the model this week, but we won’t be betting him for two reasons. First, the odds aren’t good, and there’s not much separating him between Cameron Young and Xander Schauffele. Second, McIlroy typically uses the week prior to a major to fine tune his game, so I think he’ll be more focused on next week’s PGA Championship. The same applies to Schauffele.

Now, the question is whether to avoid Young and Matt Fitzpatrick for the same reason. Both Young and Fitzpatrick have two victories this year (not counting the Zurich). Both golfers won tournaments in their previous outings, so will they be focused for this event, or will they be looking ahead to the PGA Championship as well? I truly don’t know.

Luckily, DraftKings and FanDuel have a without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick market, so we don’t have to worry about this dilemma. What this also allows us to do is set up for a double win if we see one of these golfers performing on a very high level to begin the tournament. We nearly had a double win at the RBC Heritage with Scheffler outright and Fitzpatrick without Scheffler, so there might be an opportunity for that to happen this weekend.

Ludvig Aberg to win the 2026 Truist Championship without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +1300 (FanDuel)
I love Ludvig Aberg in this market. Aberg is known as a very talented golfer who chokes down the stretch, but we won’t have to worry about that if he’s competing with one of the top four golfers. Excluding the Masters, Aberg has finished third, fifth, fifth, and fourth in his previous four tournaments, and there’s no reason to expect him to do worse at the Truist because he fits the course so well. Aberg is a bomber with a great approach game. He’s strong around the green, and he’s lost strokes putting only once since the second week of February.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 19.5 (to win without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +1050) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Adam Scott to win the 2026 Truist Championship without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +2200 (FanDuel)
Adam Scott is known as a golfer who possesses great driving distance and approach play. His accuracy off the tee isn’t amazing, but as written earlier, that doesn’t matter very much this week. With that in mind, the sole issue with Scott at this course could be his putting. Scott has lost strokes putting in the past four tournaments, but gained a high number of strokes putting in the two tournaments prior to those four. He’s bad at putting, but not horrendous enough for me to avoid him. He finished fourth last week, so I think that could set up for another strong performance at a bomber- and approach-friendly course.

Betting 1 Unit to win 22 (to win without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +2200) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Min Woo Lee to win the 2026 Truist Championship without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +2600 (DraftKings)
Min Woo Lee has everything you could want from someone who can compete and win at this course. In addition to his great driving distance and improved accuracy, his approach has been much better this year, while his around-the-green play is usually superb. His upgraded approach play didn’t show up last week, but he’s gained strokes with his iron play in four of the previous six tournaments. He’s also ranked in the top 25 of approach from 175-200 yards.

Betting 1 Unit to win 26 (to win without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +2600) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Seppulon Straka to win the 2026 Truist Championship without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +3000 (DraftKings)
I’ve talked about some golfers who have improved their accuracy off the tee. Seppulon Straka, conversely, has upgraded his power off the tee this year. Straka had positive power off the tee in five of his 22 tournaments in 2025. This season, Straka has had positive power off the tee in seven of his 10 tournaments. This has nearly translated into victories, with Straka finishing second, fourth, and eighth in various tournaments, including fourth last week at the Cadillac Championship. Straka’s approach play and putting were already fantastic, so this improved power off the tee could allow him to prevail at Quail Hollow.

Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (to win without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +3000) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Kurt Kitayama to win the 2026 Truist Championship without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +3000 (DraftKings)
Kurt Kitayama has always been known as a great bomber and strong approach player who struggles elsewhere, but that hasn’t been the case this year. Kitayama’s improved accuracy was why we bet him last week. He didn’t win, but he had a respectable ninth-place finish. Kitayama, who has three top 10s this year, including second at the Genesis, will certainly be in the mix atop the leaderboard if his putting holds up. Putting can always be an adventure with Kitayama, but he’s gained strokes putting in six of his previous nine tournaments.

Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (to win without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +3000) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Nicolai Hojgaard to win the 2026 Truist Championship without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +3300 (DraftKings)
We bet Nicolai Hojgaard at the Houston Open. He was amazing the first three rounds, but choked on Sunday and ended up finishing second behind Gary Woodland. We don’t have to worry about Hojgaard choking if we’re betting him in the without market. With that in mind, Hojgaard is a great bet at 33/1 because he’s very strong off the tee and has great iron play. The only possible issue with Hojgaard is that his putting has been wonky lately, but he’s usually pretty good on the green.

Betting 1 Unit to win 33 (to win without McIlroy/Young/Schauffele/Fitzpatrick +3300) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Truist Championship:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Truist Championship:

Matt Fitzpatrick +2500 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings

Adam Scott +3300 (0.4 Units) – DraftKings

Si Woo Kim +3965 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Kurt Kitayama +4100 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Min Woo Lee +4183 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Sam Burns +4344 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Hideki Matsuyama +4572 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Rickie Fowler +4801 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Alex Smalley +5000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Keegan Bradley +5000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Gary Woodland +5394 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Justin Rose +5713 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Akshay Bhatia +6111 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Daniel Berger +6300 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Round 2-4 Bets at the 2026 Truist Championship:

PGA Bets for the 2026 Cadillac Championship:

We’ve called two consecutive winners with Rory McIlroy at the Masters and Matt Fitzpatrick at the RBC Heritage. We nearly had three, but Andrew Putnam, at 140/1 odds, missed a 3-foot putt late on Sunday at the Texas Open to ruin a potential victory. Still, we’re going for three in a row here at the Cadillac Championship.

The Cadillac Championship is hosted by Trump National Doral (Blue Monster course). This course hasn’t been on the PGA Tour since 2016, so we don’t have any real golfing data from it because renovations have been done to it since Trump bought it. We do know the course details, however. The Blue Monster one of the longest courses on tour at 7,700 yards, so driving distance is crucial. However, the fairways are narrow, and there are tons of water hazards. I would still value driving distance over driving accuracy, but I would not want to bet a golfer who sprays the ball all over the place. Approach is also important to avoid the hazards. Around-the-green play matters, albeit to a lesser extent, while putting skill is diminished because the greens on this course are not very complicated.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Cadillac Championship:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Cameron Young
3. Min Woo Lee
4. Jake Knapp
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Adam Scott
7. Kurt Kitayama
8. Nicolai Hojgaard
9. Keegan Bradley
10. Hideki Matsuyama
11. Chris Gotterup
12. Viktor Hovland
13. Gary Woodland
14. Daniel Berger
15. Jacob Bridgeman
16. Justin Rose
17. Jordan Smith
18. Maverick McNealy
19. Tommy Fleetwood
20. Patrick Cantlay

We’re going to be betting the Without Scottie Scheffler market. Scheffler is No. 1 in the model by a substantial amount, and he’s played much better golf ever since he took time off for the birth of his second child. What we will aim to do once again is find Scheffler at vaue – we got +1000 at the RBC Heritage after Round 2 – and bet him to prevail outright so we can achieve a double victory, which we nearly had with Fitzpatrick to win without Scheffler.

Cameron Young to win the 2026 Cadillac Championship without Scottie Scheffler +1050 (DraftKings)
While Scheffler is miles ahead of Cameron Young, I can also tell you that Young is miles ahead of the No. 3 golfer in the model. Thus, even though Young’s odds to win without Scheffler aren’t amazing, I’ll be betting him.

Young is perfect for this golf course. He can blast the ball off the tee while being accurate. His improved accuracy off the tee is one of the reasons why he’s been so much better this year. In four of Young’s five previous tournaments, he’s finished seventh, third, first, and third. He was 25th at the RBC Heritage, but as I wrote leading into that tournament, golfers in contention at the Masters don’t perform well the following week. Young took a week off from the Zurich, so he should be ready to revert to his dominant form.

Betting 2 Units to win 21 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +1050) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Collin Morikawa to win the 2026 Cadillac Championship without Scottie Scheffler +1700 (FanDuel)
Collin Morikawa is known as the most technical golfer on tour because he thrives with his great accuracy off the tee and elite approach play. So, why bet someone like this at the Blue Monster? Well, Morikawa’s driving distance has improved by leaps and bounds this year. A year ago, Morikawa had positive distance off the tee in just seven of his 20 PGA Tour events. This year, Morikawa has maintained positive driving distance in five of his seven PGA Tour events, and one of the two exceptions occurred after he tweaked his back.

Morikawa’s improved strength of the tee has been able to net positive results. In his previous five tournaments, he’s finished first, seventh, fifth, seventh (Masters), and fourth. He’s a great bargain at 17/1 to win without Scheffler.

Betting 1 Unit to win 17 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +1700) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Jake Knapp to win the 2026 Cadillac Championship without Scottie Scheffler +2500 (BetRivers)
Jake Knapp is another golfer who has made vast improvements to his game this year. Knapp was known as a late bloomer who was able to blast the ball off the tee, but his accuracy and approach play were lackluster. A year ago, he was 50-50 in losing strokes on approach, while he had positive or neutral accuracy off the tee in just six of his 22 PGA Tour events. This year, he has lost strokes on approach in just two of his nine events, and in those nine events, he’s maintained positive or neutral accuracy off the tee on six occasions.

The results have paid off for Knapp. He had a run earlier in the season that saw him finish fifth, eighth, eighth, and sixth. More recently, he placed 11th at the Masters. This proved that he can hang with the big boys at one of the tougher golf courses on tour.

Betting 1 Unit to win 25 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +2500) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers
Min Woo Lee to win the 2026 Cadillac Championship without Scottie Scheffler +2600 (DraftKings)
Like Young and Knapp, Min Woo Lee is a power golfer whose accuracy has improved this year. In 11 tournaments this season, Lee has had positive accuracy off the tee in seven of them despite being able to blast the ball a long distance. Compare that to last year, when in 21 PGA events, he had positive accuracy off the tee only five times!

Lee’s had some great results this year. He’s finished second, third, and sixth recently. He faltered at the Masters, but I think he can bounce back because of his positive traits. Lee has everything you could want from someone who can compete and win at this course. In addition to his great driving distance and improved accuracy, his approach has been much better this year, while his around-the-green play is usually superb.

Betting 1 Unit to win 26 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +2600) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Adam Scott to win the 2026 Cadillac Championship without Scottie Scheffler +3200 (DraftKings)
Adam Scott is known as a golfer who possesses great driving distance and approach play. This automatically puts him on the radar for me, but the question then becomes, can he be accurate enough off the tee to avoid penalties? I think so. Scott has been wildly inaccurate in just two tournaments this season. He hasn’t made great strides in accuracy, but he’s definitely been more accurate than last year. Another potential issue with Scott is his putting, but as I wrote earlier, the greens at this course are rather simple, so he shouldn’t have much of an issue with his putter.

Scott is well priced at 32/1 to win without Scheffler. He finished fourth at the Genesis in a similar field, so he’s certainly live to prevail at this event.

Betting 1 Unit to win 32 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +3200) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Kurt Kitayama to win the 2026 Cadillac Championship without Scottie Scheffler +4000 (BetMGM)
I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but we’ve had a running theme with our picks. Yes, the attributes, but every single golfer on this list has made huge strides in their game this year, and Kurt Kitayama is another great example. Kitayama has always been known as a great bomber and strong approach player who struggles elsewhere, but that hasn’t been the case this year. Last season, Kitayama had positive accuracy off the tee in just four of his 23 PGA Tour events. This year, Kitayama has been positive off the tee in seven of his 10 events! This improved accuracy is why Kitayama finished second at the Genesis and eighth at the RBC Heritage.

Kitayama’s downfall can be his putting, but as I just mentioned in the Scott write-up, these greens aren’t complicated. Kitayama will have a good chance to triumph here, and we’re getting a great bargain with him at 40/1 to win without Scheffler.

Betting 1 Unit to win 40 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +4000) at BetMGM

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Cadillac Championship:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Cadillac Championship:

Cameron Young +2050 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings

Maverick McNealy +3300 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Min Woo Lee +3507 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Jacob Bridgeman +4357 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Adam Scott +4801 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Justin Rose +4801 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Pierceson Coody +5394 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Alex Smalley +5500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Gary Woodland +5713 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Ryo Hisatsune +6111 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Keith Mitchell +6000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Bud Cauley +7651 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Various Hedge Bets (2 Units)

PGA Bets for the 2026 RBC Heritage:

We finally had some luck go our way. The Masters was great, and it began with us nailing Sam Burns and Rory McIlroy being first-round leaders. We then hit with McIlroy being the second-round leader, but the big payout was McIlroy outright. On top of that, we had Scottie Scheffler to win without McIlroy, which was a bet we placed on Saturday afternoon. I called the wager possible “FOMO” on X, but it turns out I should have wagered more on it.

Our next tournament is the RBC Heritage, held at Hilton Head. The Hilton Head golf course calls for great around-the-green play. Accuracy is somewhat important, putting is always a factor, and approach matters a lot, but being great around the green is the way to win the RBC Heritage. Last year, Justin Thomas, one of the top around-the-green players on tour, prevailed in a playoff over Andrew Novak, who is a mediocre golfer outside of his strong around-the-green play. The two previous winners were Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick, who rank first and seventh, respectively, in around-the-green play in this field.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 RBC Heritage:

1. Scottie Scheffler*
2. Matt Fitzpatrick
3. Russell Henley*
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Justin Thomas
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Min Woo Lee
8. Collin Morikawa^
9. Andrew Putnam
10. Si Woo Kim
11. Cameron Young*
12. Ryo Hisatsune
13. Patrick Cantlay
14. Sungjae Im
15. Jason Day*
16. Alex Noren
17. Ludvig Aberg
18. Harry Hall
19. Nick Taylor
20. Maverick McNealy

^ – denotes injured player

* – denotes players who were in competition to win the Masters on Day 4

I looked over the past five years and checked to see how the golfers who were in contention to win the Masters but ended up losing fared the following week. Most of them did poorly. The highest finish was a ninth, followed by a 10th, and that was it for top-10 finishes at the RBC Heritage for those golfers. You may remember that Scheffler won the Masters and then the RBC Heritage in 2024, but I’m only considering golfers who didn’t prevail at the Masters despite being in real contention on Day 4. Thus, we won’t be betting any of the golfers with an asterisk next to their name.

Having said that, I’m still interested in playing the “without Scheffler” markets because Scheffler seemingly awakened at the Masters. He led the field in strokes gained from tee to green, which indicates that he’s finally out of his slump. I don’t want to stare down Scheffler when I’m playing guys like Andrew Putnam, so we will be avoiding the best golfer in the world entirely this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick to win the 2026 RBC Heritage without Scottie Scheffler +1425 (DraftKings)
Matt Fitzpatrick finished 18th at the Masters, but was never in contention on Day 4 because he entered Sunday eight back of Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young. Fitzpatrick will look to rebound, which is definitely possible because he has exactly what you want from someone golfing at Hilton Head. Fitzpatrick hits the ball very accurately off the tee, and he’s been phenomenal on approach this year, including his stint at the Masters. What Fitzpatrick does best, however, is thrive around the green. As mentioned earlier, he’s seventh in that category in this field.

Given all of that, it’s not a surprise that Fitzpatrick won the RBC Heritage in 2023. I see no reason why he couldn’t win it again.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 21.37 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +1425) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Tommy Fleetwood to win the 2026 RBC Heritage without Scottie Scheffler +1700 (FanDuel)
Tommy Fleetwood is still searching for his first-ever pro tour win that isn’t the Tour Championship, which should tell you how flawed the new scoring system is in the Tour Championship. Fleetwood, however, sold his soul to Blackstone, so perhaps he’ll have more luck in the future.

Fleetwood can begin at the RBC Heritage, where he’s very favorably priced. I expected him to be 12/1 or 13/1 without Scheffler, but he’s 17/1 at FanDuel. Fleetwood is a golfer who’s great when it comes to accuracy, approach, and around-the-green play. He finished seventh at this tournament last year, and he’ll be looking to rebound from a dismal weekend at the Masters after a strong Thursday and Friday.

Betting 1 Unit to win 17 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +1700) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Justin Thomas to win the 2026 RBC Heritage without Scottie Scheffler +4000 (Caesars)
I was prepared to bet Justin Thomas at +2500 to win without Scheffler, so imagine my shock when I saw that he’s +4000 without Scheffler! As mentioned earlier, Thomas won this tournament last year, which is no surprise, given that he’s the best around-the-green player at this tournament not named Scheffler.

Thomas is coming off a pedestrian performance at the Masters (41st), so he’ll be looking to rebound and perform like he did at the Players, where he placed eighth.

Betting 1 Unit to win 40 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +4000) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Min Woo Lee to win the 2026 RBC Heritage without Scottie Scheffler +5500 (BetMGM)
Min Woo Lee hasn’t won a tournament this year, but he’s been very close. He’s finished third, sixth, and second in three of his previous six tournaments. Just 27, Lee’s game has improved markedly this year. He’s always been known as a bomber with great around-the-green ability, but his approach play and putting have both improved tremendously this year.

We bet Lee at the Masters, but he was a big disappointment. I like him to bounce back here, as his terrific around-the-green play should be able to carry him to a high finish.

Betting 1 Unit to win 55 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +5500) at BetMGM

Ryo Hisatsune to win the 2026 RBC Heritage without Scottie Scheffler +7200 (DraftKings)
Ryo Hisatsune nearly won us lots of money at the Texas Open, where he finished eighth. He hasn’t golfed since then, so he’s well rested to take on a golf course that fits his strengths. Hisatsune is more accurate than strong, and he’s terrific on approach. He’s not the best around the green, but he’s very good in that regard. In his sole appearance at the RBC Heritage, he finished 18th last year. He’s golfing better now than he was in 2025, so that’ll give him a good chance to take down this tournament.

Betting 1 Unit to win 72 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +5500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Sungjae Im to win the 2026 RBC Heritage without Scottie Scheffler +9000 (BetRivers)
It’s been a long time since I’ve bet Sungjae Im to win anything. Im, for those of you who aren’t aware, used to be a very promising young golfer who had instant success on tour. However, something went wrong, and he endured a 2-year slump, concidentally since I pulled his legendary Reignmaker card in a pack.

Im, however, looks like he’s back, or at least close to it. He was fourth at the Valspar and 46th at the Masters despite Augusta being a poor course fit for him. The RBC Heritage suits his strengths much more, and we know that from previous results. In this past two years when he hasn’t golfed well, Im finished 11th and 12th at this tournament. The prior year, he was seventh. This is because Im is so terrific around the green.

Betting 1 Unit to win 90 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +9000) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers

Andrew Putnam to win the 2026 RBC Heritage without Scottie Scheffler +14500 (DraftKings)
We had Andrew Putnam +17000 to win the Texas Open, and he nearly came through for us. If he hadn’t missed a 3-foot putt at the end, he may have won us $17,000. I’m good with trying Putnam again because he’s ranked so highly in our model. Putnam is fifth in around the green in this field. He’s also very accurate off the tee.

Betting 1 Units to win 145 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +14500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 RBC Heritage:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 RBC Heritage:

Justin Thomas +4000 (0.4 Units) – DraftKings

Chris Gotterup +4600 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Ben Griffin +5000 (0.3 Units) – Caesars

Michael Thorbjornsen +6200 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Ryo Hisatsune +6300 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Sungjae Im +6600 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Nick Taylor +6600 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Austin Smotherman +8800 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Ricky Castillo +9000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Denny McCarthy +9000 (0.3 Units) – Caesars

Tony Finau +9400 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Ryan Fox +9600 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

William Mouw +12000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings

Round 2-4 Bets at the 2026 RBC Heritage:
Outright: Scottie Scheffler to win +1000 (1 Unit) – DraftKings

Hedge: Matt Fitzpatrick +110 (1 Unit) – DraftKings

PGA Bets for the 2026 Masters:

I don’t know how we angered the gods so much, but this streak of bad luck is just horrific. We had three golfers blow leads in a span of four weeks entering the Texas Open, and if that wasn’t bad enough, our 170/1 long shot (Andrew Putnam) was the betting favorite late on Sunday until he missed a 3-foot putt. Oh, and Davis Thompson had a chance to be our first-round leader at 74/1, but he missed an 8-foot putt on 18. He still looked like he’d pay out in a dead heat, but Mark Hubbard, a poor golfer by PGA standards, had a miraculous finish to his first round to emerge as the solo winner.

I don’t know what we’ve done to deserve this. Maybe I or someone betting these picks urinated on an Indian burial ground, but I have no other explanation. I think we’re handicapping golf extremely well this year, but nothing outside of the Matt Fitzpatrick win has gone our way. We did at least hedge well with J.J. Spaun, but man, I really could have used that $17,000 we would have won with Putnam.

At any rate, we move on to the Masters. I’ve been avoiding the favorites in recent weeks, but that won’t be the case at the Masters. The top golfers won’t be fine tuning their game anymore, as this is obviously one of the most prestigious events of the year. Besides, Augusta National is an extremely difficult golf course where some golfers just don’t have a chance to win. The Masters is long, so those who can’t drive the ball very far are at a big disadvantage. It requires elite iron play, so golfers who have a mediocre or worse approach game have no shot. Augusta National also requires strong around-the-green play, so that’s another factor that can weed out some golfers. Once you eliminate everyone, you realize that there are only 20-30 or so golfers who can win the Masters, which brings us to…

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Masters:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. John Rahm
3. Rory McIlroy
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Matt Fitzpatrick
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Min Woo Lee
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Si Woo Kim
10. Ludvig Aberg
11. Cameron Young
12. Bryson DeChambeau
13. Collin Morikawa
14. Nicolai Hojgaard
15. Justin Thomas
16. Adam Scott
17. Chris Gotterup
18. Viktor Hovland
19. Patrick Cantlay
20. Jordan Spieth

The primary discussion is what to do with Scottie Scheffler. While Scheffler is the best golfer in the world, he has not played like it this year. His elite approach game is his calling card, and yet he lost strokes on approach at the Arnold Palmer, marking only the second time this has happened since 2022. He’s only had one tournament this year where he’s met his standard on approach.

Scheffler can definitely show up and destroy the field, but the odds don’t reflect how he’s performed in recent tournaments (22nd, 24th, 12th). Thus, I can’t really advise betting him.

Jon Rahm to win the 2026 Masters +1104 (Kalshi)
Everyone is talking about Bryson DeChambeau as the favorite from LIV because he’s coming off two consecutive outright victories. However, some of his other finishes (17th, 24th) are being conveniently ignored, as is DeChambeau’s mediocre approach play. Conversely, Jon Rahm has been the most consistent golfer anywhere this year. He was one win, as opposed to two, but these are his finishes this season: 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 5th, 2nd.

Rahm’s approach game is much better DeChambeau’s. He can’t quite blast the ball off the tee like DeChambeau – almost no one can – but he can hit it far enough to give him an edge over many golfers in the field. Rahm is also great with his short game. Oh, and he won the Masters three years ago, so we know he can thrive at Augusta. Betting 2 Units to win 22.1 (to win +1104) at Kalshi

Rory McIlroy to win the 2026 Masters +1343 (Kalshi)
I wasn’t planning on betting Rory McIlroy to win the Masters even though he came in third in my model. The reason wasn’t that there haven’t been back-to-back Masters winners in a quarter of a century; rather, it’s that I heard there was some sort of an injury with McIlroy. Well, I heard from a very trusted source who’s at Augusta right now that McIlroy looks “incredible.” I’m going to bet a unit on him to win because he’s apparently healthy. Betting 1 Unit to win 13.43 (to win +1343) at Kalshi

Xander Schauffele to win the 2026 Masters +1800 (DraftKings)
Xander Schauffele had a lost 2025 season because he was coming off an injury, and yet he still finished eighth at the Masters. I bring this up because excluding the Covid year, Schauffele has gotten into the top 10 of every Masters he has played, save for one. That is not surprising at all, given Schauffele’s skill set. Schauffele is strong off the tee and maintains elite approach play. He’s not great around the green, but he’s not bad in that regard. He’s also gained strokes putting in all but one tournament this year.

Betting 1.25 Units to win 22.5 (to win +1800) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Ludvig Aberg to win the 2026 Masters without Scheffler/McIlroy/DeChambeau/Rahm +1300 (FanDuel)
I like betting the “without” markets at the Majors because the top golfers are so likely to win. Ludvig Aberg seems perfect for this sort of stipulation because he’s developed the reputation of being a choke artist. He finished second in his first Masters stint back in 2024, placing only behind Scottie Scheffler. If you had Scheffler to win (we did) and also bet Aberg in the “without” market, you could have won twice, and that’s what we’re going to try to do here.

Aberg is +1800 to win outright on FanDuel and +1300 in the “without” market. The numbers state that the +1300 gives us great value because we’re erasing about 40 percent of the win equity – and that’s not even factoring in that we can potentially double dip with Rahm and Aberg.

Aberg stands out at the Masters because of his great power off the tee and improving approach play. Aberg wasn’t a great approach player prior to 2026, but he has spiked on approach three times this season. If this can continue, he’ll have a great shot to win at Augusta, or at least finish second behind one of the top four.

Betting 1 Unit to win 13 (to win without Scheffler/McIlroy/DeChambeau/Rahm +1300) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Matt Fitzpatrick to win the 2026 Masters +2350 (DraftKings)
We’ve been betting on Matt Fitzpatrick often this year. He broke our hearts when he botched the 17th hole and finished second at the Players, but he redeemed himself the following week at the Valspar. Granted, his odds were much better at the Players, but still.

It’s a close call between betting Fitzpatrick outright versus “without,” but I’d rather have the former this time because outside of the Players, Fitzpatrick doesn’t have a choking history. In fact, his putt on 18 at the Valspar was very clutch. He also came up big at the U.S. Open in 2022.

Fitzpatrick’s approach game is excellent, giving him a shot to win at Augusta, where he finished 10th two years ago. He has improved power off the tee, while his around-the-green play is great. Putting can be an adventure, but he’s been better in that regard lately.

Betting 1 Unit to win 23.5 (to win +2350) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Min Woo Lee to win the 2026 Masters +3500 (FanDuel)
Min Woo Lee hasn’t won a tournament this year, but he’s been very close. He’s finished third, sixth, and second in three of his previous five tournaments. Just 27, Lee’s game has improved markedly this year. He’s always been known as a bomber with great around-the-green ability, but his approach play and putting have both improved tremendously this year.

Lee is seventh in my model, so he’s completely mispriced at +3500. I considered +2300 in the “without” market, but he defeated a charging Scheffler in the Houston Open last year, so I don’t think there’s a choking hazard here.

Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Adam Scott to win the 2026 Masters +9351 (Kalshi)
There’s always one old guy who thrives at the Masters. Phil Mickelson finished second behind only Rahm at the 2023 Masters, while Justin Rose lost in a playoff to Rory McIlroy last year. Adam Scott could be the old guy who nearly takes down the Masters this year.

Scott is a bomber off the tee, but the reason I like him so much is that his approach game has been off the charts this year. This allowed him to finish fourth at the Genesis and 11th at the Players. Scott’s putting can be scary, but he’s had some spike weeks in that regard.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 46.8 (to win +9351) at Kalshi

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Masters:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Masters:

Rory McIlroy +2365 (0.5 Units) – Kalshi

Matt Fitzpatrick +3367 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Hideki Matsuyama +4000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Akshay Bhatia +5098 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Patrick Cantlay +5098 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Russell Henley +5403 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Jake Knapp +5747 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Sam Burns +6581 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Kurt Kitayama +9251 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Samuel Stevens +9251 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Ryan Fox +13257 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Max Greyserman +13257 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson +15482 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Various hedges posted on X (1.8 Units)

PGA Bets for the 2026 Texas Open:

We’ve had some terrible luck this year. We had Nicolai Hojgaard poised to win us 40-plus units last week, but he choked away his chances on Sunday. If we’ve just bet on the second-place finishers this year, losing money on the winners (so, really just second place), we’d be up nearly five figures. No one is better at betting on second-place finishers than us.

We can only hope for better luck at the Texas Open, which features a much different course than Memorial Park. Whereas the Houston Open was a bombers’ paradise, the Texas Open feature the narrowest fairways on tour, as well as thick rough. Approach is the most important factor, but accuracy off the tee and around-the-gree play are crucial as well.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Texas Open:

1. Tommy Fleetwood
2. Russell Henley
3. Si Woo Kim
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Seppulon Straka
6. Andrew Putnam
7. Ludvig Aberg
8. Ryo Hisatsune
9. Nick Taylor
10. Tom Kim
11. Alex Noren
12. Sudarshan Yellamaraju
13. Jordan Spieth
14. Maverick McNealy
15. John Parry
16. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
17. Michael Thorbjornsen
18. Max McGreevy
19. J.J. Spaun
20. Jordan Smith

Tommy Fleetwood, who sold his soul to Blackstone, is the top golfer at this event, but we will not be betting him or any of the top established golfers because they’re likely fine tuning their game for the Masters, which is next week. We’ll also be avoiding the poor putters, as usual.

Russell Henley to win the 2026 Texas Open +1750 (Bookmaker)
I don’t know if Russell Henley exactly qualifies as a top established golfer. He’s certainly established, but he’s never won a major in his career. And in the two tournaments prior to his two previous major appearances, he’s finished second and fifth. Henley is perfect for this course, as accuracy, approach, and around-the-green play are his three strongest attributes. It should come as no surprise then that Henley finished fourth in his previous Texas Open appearance.

Betting 1.5 Unit to win 26.25 (to win +1750) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Seppulon Straka to win the 2026 Texas Open +2900 (DraftKings)
Our friend Seppulon Straka is always worth a play on golf courses that require tight accuracy, great approach, and strong around-the-green play. Straka has second- and eighth-place finishes this year, so while he hasn’t prevailed at a tournament yet, he’s been very close to winning.

Betting 1 Unit to win 29 (to win +2900) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Ryo Hisatsune to win the 2026 Texas Open +4100 (DraftKings)
Ryo Hisatsune has had some great finishes this year. He was second at the Farmers, 10th at Phoenix, eighth at Pebble Beach, and 13th at the Players. His approach game and around-the-green play have both been outstanding. His accuracy off the tee and putting have been streaky, but have been terrific at times. Hisatsune is a bargain at 41/1.

Betting 1 Unit to win 41 (to win +4100) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Alex Noren to win the 2026 Texas Open +4100 (DraftKings)
Alex Noren missed the first half of the 2025 season with an injury. He eventually returned and caught fire at the end of the season. He hasn’t quite played on that level in 2026 just yet, but we saw signs of it when he finished 12th at the Genesis. Noren has good accuracy and quality approach play, but his calling card is what he can do around the green. He had an 11th-place finish the last time he took part in this tournament.

Betting 1 Unit to win 41 (to win +4100) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Sudarshan Yellamaraju to win the 2026 Texas Open +6800 (DraftKings)
We bet Sudarshan Yellamaraju last week, and we’ll do it again. He’s been great this year. He’s coming off a fifth-place finish at the Players and a sixth-place finish at the Houston Open. He can hit the ball off the tee both powerfully and accurately. His approach game is excellent, and he can putt extremely well. The only downside to his game is around-the-green play, but he gained strokes in that regard last weekend. He’s completely mispriced at 68/1.

Betting 1 Unit to win 68 (to win +6400) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Andrew Putnam to win the 2026 Texas Open +17000 (DraftKings)
Andrew Putnam is our extremely long shot. I considered Tom Kim as well, but his putting stinks right now. Putnam, by contrast, is a great putter (despite some poor showings in that regard back in January and February.) He’s also extremely accurate and can do outstanding things around the green. His approach play is hit or miss, but he’s gained strokes in that area in five of his previous seven tournaments.

Betting 1 Unit to win 170 (to win +17000) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Texas Open:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Texas Open:

Si Woo Kim +4000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Hideki Matsuyama +4100 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Maverick McNealy +4100 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Michael Thorbjornsen +4579 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Rickie Fowler +4600 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Ryo Hisatsune +5400 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Davis Thompson +7400 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Mac Meissner +8400 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Max McGreevy +8600 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Bud Cauley +9251 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Austin Smotherman +9251 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Doug Ghim +9800 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Seamus Power +11050 (0.3 Units) – Bookmaker

Zach Bauchou +14000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Various Hedges (2.5 Units)

PGA Bets for the 2026 Houston Open:

Things finally went our way, though it didn’t look like that would be the case when Matt Fitzpatrick missed two putts on Sunday. However, he bounced back and drilled a clutch putt on 18 to win, allowing us to hit our 15/1 wager on him.

Let’s hope for two winners in a row. We called the winner at the Houston Open last year with Min Woo Lee, who is now the favorite after Scottie Scheffler withdrew. Lee is No. 2 in our model, but we won’t be wagering on him prior to the tournament because the betting number on him is so unfavorable. We had him at 40/1 last year, and now he’s 15/1!

The Houston Open is a very long course, so unlike the previous few tournaments, we’ll be looking to bet bombers. Approach matters as well, of course, but driving distance is the primary factor needed to win at Memorial Park. There’s barely any missed fairway penalty, so we won’t be considering driving accuracy at all.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Houston Open:

1. Nicolai Hojgaard
2. Min Woo Lee
3. Chris Gotterup
4. Kurt Kitayama
5. Adam Scott
6. Rasmus Hojgaard
7. Jake Knapp
8. Stephan Jaegar
9. Sudarshan Yellamaraju
10. Pierceson Coody
11. Michael Thorbjornsen
12. Taylor Pendrith
13. Tony Finau
14. Brooks Koepka
15. Wyndham Clark
16. Ryan Fox
17. Ryan Gerard
18. Patrick Rodgers
19. Jordan Smith
20. Marco Penge

Chris Gotterup to win the 2026 Houston Open +2050 (DraftKings)
Chris Gotterup is looking forward to this event. He told the media that he can’t wait to play in Houston so he can bomb it as far as possible. Of all the golfers at this event, Gotterup is ranked sixth in driving distance, so he has a great chance to win his third event of the year. Gotterup won the Sony Open and the Phoenix Open earlier in the year, but he’s been cold since. However, recent course fits didn’t match Gotterup’s strengths like this one does.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 30.75 (to win +2050) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Jake Knapp to win the 2026 Houston Open +2400 (DraftKings)
Jake Knapp has been one of the best golfers on tour this year. Excluding the result at the Players, he’s finished 11th, 5th, 8th, 8th, and 6th. He most recently missed the cut at the Players, but that should motivate him to rebound. Knapp can drive the ball a great distance, while his approach play is solid. He’s also one of the best putters on tour. I wish we were getting a better number than 24/1, but I love Knapp at this course.

Betting 1 Unit to win 24 (to win +2400) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Nicolai Hojgaard to win the 2026 Houston Open +3020 (Kalshi)
Nicolai Hojgaard is No. 1 in my model, yet is 30/1 at Kalshi. He comes in ranked eighth in driving distance, and he’s sixth in approach. He hasn’t won a tournament yet this year, but he’s been very close. He was third at the Phoenix Open and sixth at the Cognizant, so he should be in the mix to win his first-ever pro tournament at the age of 25.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 45.3 (to win +3020) at Kalshi

Adam Scott to win the 2026 Houston Open +4579 (Kalshi)
We’re betting on some young golfers to win this tournament, so how about an old guy? Adam Scott is 45, but he’s been terrific so far this year. Scott recently finished fourth at the Genesis and 11th at the Arnold Palmer. This course suits his strengths, which happen to be driving distance and approach. I don’t know what Scott did with his approach play this year, but it’s been much improved over what we saw last season. Scott is fifth in my model, so this seems like a major misprice.

Betting 1 Unit to win 45.79 (to win +4579) at Kalshi

Rasmus Hojgaard to win the 2026 Houston Open +5500 (BetMGM)
Rasmus Hojgaard, like his twin brother Nicolai, is gunning for his first pro tour win. And like Nicolai, Rasmus has what it takes to win in Houston. Rasmus can blast the ball off the tee, while his approach game has been much better this year. He’s also a terrific putter. I thought Rasmus would come in at 40/1, but we’re getting him at 55/1 at one sportsbook, which is an amazing value.

Betting 1 Unit to win 55 (to win +5500) at BetMGM

Stephan Jaeger to win the 2026 Houston Open +6850 (Bookmaker)
You have to like the Jaeger Bomb at the Houston Open, especially because he won on this course in 2024 for his only pro tour victory. Perhaps Stephan Jaeger can do it again. He can blast the ball off the tee as well as anyone, while his putting and around-the-green play are both strong. Jaeger’s approach can be hit or miss, but if he’s on in that regard, he’ll have a great chance to prevail.

Betting 1 Unit to win 68.5 (to win +6850) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

Sudarshan Yellamaraju to win the 2026 Houston Open +9400 (DraftKings)
Sudarshan Yellamaraju is a rookie on tour, so he’s looking for his first pro victory. He just had his first pro top-five finish at the Players, which wasn’t a surprise given how well he’s played. Yellamaraju has displayed great power off the tee and very strong approach play. He’s also gained strokes putting in all but one tournament this year. His only weakness is around-the-green play, which is why he’s only No. 9 in the model, but as long as he’s not terrible in that regard, he could be atop the leaderboard come Sunday.

Betting 1 Unit to win 94 (to win +9400) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Houston Open:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Houston Open:

Chris Gotterup +3500 (0.4 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Nicolai Hojgaard +4100 (0.4 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Rickie Fowler +4400 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Kurt Kitayama +4500 (0.3 Units) – Bookmaker

Harry Hall +5000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Ben Griffin +5000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Wyndham Clark +5500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Keith Mitchell +5500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Ryan Fox +6300 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Sam Stevens +6600 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +9000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Will Mouw +9000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Jesper Svensson +10000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

We’re taking some shots here on the first-round leader. Almost all of these golfers rank highly in “birdie or better percentage” or have a good track record in the first round. These golfers are all teeing off in the morning when the conditions will be better.

Round 2-4 Bets at the 2026 Houston Open:
Gary Woodland Round 2 Leader +550 (0.5 Units) – BetMGM
Sam Burns Round 2 Leader +730 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings
Gary Woodland Round 3 Leader +100 (2 Units) – DraftKings
Nicolai Hojgaard Round 3 Leader +455 (1 Unit) – DraftKings

We stand to win 45.3 units if Nicolai Hojgaard prevails. I want to make sure we walk away with about 38-40 units, so I’m comfortable using 5-7 units of equity to hedge. To start, I’m doing this:

Gary Woodland to win +101 (5 Units) – Kalshi*
Min Woo Lee to win +2750 (0.1 Units) – FanDuel (boosted 25%)
Min Woo Lee to win +2420 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM (boosted 10%)
Michael Thorbjornsen to win +3300 (0.2 Units) – FanDuel
Jason Day to win +8000 (0.1 Units) – FanDuel
Samuel Stevens to win +1000 (0.1 Units) – FanDuel
Sahith Theegala to win +17500 (0.05 Units) – FanDuel
*If you don’t have access to Kalshi, DraftKings has -102 available for Woodland.

This covers us for everything. If you don’t want to bet anything below Thornjornsen, that’s fine, and the same goes if you only want to hedge with Woodland. If, at any point, Woodland becomes an underdog of +500 or so, I’ll consider putting one more unit on him.

PGA Bets for the 2026 Valspar Championship:

No one has been running worse than us. In the past three weeks, we had two potential winners at 41/1 and 19/1 lose their lead on the 17th hole. For Shane Lowry at the Cognizant, it was a blown three-stroke lead because he hit the ball into the water twice. For Matt Fitzpatrick at the Players, it was a shot into the trees and then a missed eight-foot putt. It would be great if a golfer we had was able to come back from a deficit to win for us at the end on a Sunday, but maybe that’s too much to ask.

We now are heading into the Valspar Championship, which was a disaster for us last year as well because we had Justin Thomas blow a three-stroke lead to Viktor Hovland at 16 onward. Thomas had issues on 16 and 18 when he hit the ball into the trees and the sand on multiple occasions.

Golfers can run into rough conditions quite often at Innisbrook golf course, which is filled with water hazards, trees, and sand traps. The rough is quite thick as well, so accuracy off the tee and elite approach play are very important. Around-the-green play is significant as well.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Valspar Championship:

1. Matt Fitzpatrick
2. Viktor Hovland
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Jacob Bridgeman
5. Akshay Bhatia
6. Ryo Hisatsune
7. Corey Conners
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Aaron Rai
10. Nick Taylor
11. Zac Blair
12. J.J. Spaun
13. Tom Kim
14. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
15. Keegan Bradley
16. Andrew Putnam
17. Austin Smotherman
18. John Parry
19. Lucas Glover
20. David Ford

Matt Fitzpatrick to win the 2026 Valspar Championship +1500 (DraftKings)
Perhaps I’m a glutton for punishment, but I’m betting Matt Fitzpatrick again. He’s No. 1 in the model, after all. Fitzpatrick is incredibly accurate off the tee, and he’s gained a high number of strokes on approach in four of his previous five tournaments. Fitzpatrick finished fifth at the Valspar in 2022, so he can definitely win at this golf course.

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Viktor Hovland to win the 2026 Valspar Championship +1900 (DraftKings)
Viktor Hovland won the Valspar last year, doing so because Justin Thomas had an epic meltdown. The fact remains, however, that we know Hovland can be successful at this course. Hovland has also golfed well in his previous two outings, finishing 13th at both the Players and the Arnold Palmer. Hovland’s great approach and around-the-green play give him a nice edge at Innisbrook.

Betting 1 Unit to win 19 (to win +1900) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Jacob Bridgeman to win the 2026 Valspar Championship +2250 (DraftKings)
The best golfer on tour so far this year hasn’t been Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, or Xander Schauffele. It’s been Jacob Bridgeman. That is no joke. Bridgeman’s results thus far are as follows: 4th, 13th, 18th, 8th, 1st (Genesis), 18th, 5th (Players). Bridgeman has displayed great ball striking and approach play, but his best trait has been his putting. He’s the best putter on tour right now, and he has what it takes to claim his second victory on tour this season.

Betting 1 Unit to win 22.5 (to win +2250) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Corey Conners to win the 2026 Valspar Championship +3200 (DraftKings)
Corey Conners finished eighth at the Valspar last year, which wasn’t a surprise because his strengths line up with what he’ll see at Innisbrook. Conners is one of the most accurate golfers off the tee, which will help him avoid trouble. His approach play will get him onto the green. His putting can be an adventure, but he’s gained strokes in that regard in two of his previous three tournaments. Conners finished 13th at the Players, so he’ll have a good chance of winning at a tournament featuring a weaker field.

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Ryo Hisatsune to win the 2026 Valspar Championship +4200 (DraftKings)
Ryo Hisatsune hasn’t won yet this year, but he’s enjoyed a good season thus far. He finished second at the Farmers, 10th at Phoenix, eighth at Pebble Beach, and 13th at Players. He’s been very accurate off the tee, while his approach play has been his best trait. He’s been hit or miss with his putter, but if he can get that aspect of his game under control this weekend, he’ll have a good chance to win the Valspar.

Betting 1 Unit to win 42 (to win +4200) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Austin Smotherman to win the 2026 Valspar Championship +5300 (DraftKings)
Austin Smotherman has had some great results this year. He finished second at the Cognizant, eighth at the Amex, and 13th at the Players. His accuracy off the tee and approach play have both been terrific, which bodes well for him at this tournament. His weakness is putting, but he gained strokes on the green at the Cognizant, so perhaps he can do that again at Innisbrook.

Betting 1 Unit to win 53 (to win +5300) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Valspar Championship:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Valspar Championship:

Patrick Cantlay +3900 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Alex Smalley +6300 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Pierceson Coody +6600 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Aaron Rai +6700 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Ricky Castillo +6800 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Max McGreevy +6900 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Patrick Rodgers +7000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

John Parry +9251 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Kevin Roy +9251 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Austin Smotherman +9251 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Lee Hodges +9800 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Jesper Svensson +10500 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Zach Bauchou +12500 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

PGA Bets for the 2026 Players Championship:

I was hoping we could bounce back from our bad beat at the Cognizant with a win with one of three guys we had in the top six entering the final day at the Arnold Palmer. Collin Morikawa looked like he would be able to catch Daniel Berger for a while. We hedged with Berger, but both of them fell apart, allowing Akshay Bhatia to get the unexpected win. Sucks.

Maybe we’ll get better luck at the Players Championship. The course hosting this event, TPC Sawgrass, is similar to Bay Hill. It requires pristine accuracy and great approach play, but I think the latter is more important here than Bay Hill. Scrambling is also important to save par. Putting means less than it does at a birdie fest, but I still wouldn’t want to wager on a golfer with current severe issues on the green (looking at Aaron Rai.)

Scottie Scheffler is first in the model, so we’ll be playing the “without” markets on some of our bets. Some books have “without Scheffler,” while DraftKings has a “without Scheffler, McIlroy, Fleetwood and Schauffele,” so I’ll make sure to differentiate between the two, as well as any wagers made with Scheffler. It’ll be a mixed bag this week because of how different the odds are everywhere.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Players Championship:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Si Woo Kim
4. Russell Henley
5. Tommy Fleetwood
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Viktor Hovland
8. Matt Fitzpatrick
9. Shane Lowry
10. Seppulon Straka
11. Aaron Rai
12. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
13. Kurt Kitayama
14. Min Woo Lee
15. Xander Schauffele
16. Ryan Gerard
17. Rory McIlroy
18. Ben Griffin
19. Akshay Bhatia
20. Corey Conners

Collin Morikawa to win the 2026 Players Championship +2000 (DraftKings)
This course is similar to the one last week, so we’re going to be betting some of the same golfers again. Collin Morikawa had a real chance to win last week, but a rotten Sunday forced him into fifth. He’ll have a great chance to be victorious again because of his elite accuracy and approach. Morikawa finished 10th and 13th at this tournament in two of the previous three years, and he’s golfing better now than he was then.

The odds for Morikawa are +2000 outright on DraftKings, which also has +1475 to win without what I’ll call the Four Horsemen (Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele, Fleetwood). I asked ChatGPT to do the math, and it said that betting the +2000 provides slightly better value.

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Si Woo Kim to win the 2026 Players Championship without the Four Horsemen +1700 (DraftKings)
I normally ignore Si Woo Kim because his putter is a disaster, but this is a special case because TPC Sawgrass is a Pete Dye course. Kim has dominated Pete Dye courses over the years, winning here in 2017 and finishing sixth at this tournament a couple of years ago. He also finished sixth at the AmEx earlier this year, which was also on a Pete Dye course.

The odds for Kim are +2300 outright on DraftKings, which also has +1700 to win without the Four Horsemen. I asked ChatGPT to do the math, and it said that betting the +1700 provides slightly better value.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 25.5 (to win without the Four Horsemen +1700) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Russell Henley to win the 2026 Players Championship +3000 (BetMGM)
Russell Henley is a top-five golfer on tour if you combine only driving accuracy and approach. This makes him a great fit for this course, at least hypothetically. I say that because since 2021, Henley has been cut twice at this event, and his best finish in that span is 13th. However, I’m not a huge believer in course history aside from specific instances, so this shouldn’t preclude Henley from winning this event.

The odds for Henley are +3000 outright on BetMGM, while DraftKings has +2050 to win without the Four Horsemen. I asked ChatGPT to do the math, and it said that betting the +3000 provides considerable better value.

Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (to win +3000) at BetMGM

Matt Fitzptrick to win the 2026 Players Championship +4100 (DraftKings)
Matt Fitzpatrick finished fifth at the Players two years ago, so we know he can play well on this course. He finished ninth at the Phoenix Open about a month ago, so he’s also been close to winning this year. Fitzpatrick is incredibly accurate off the tee, while he’s gained a high number of strokes on approach in three of his previous four tournaments.

The odds for Fitzpatrick are +4100 outright on DraftKings, which also has +2900 to win without the Four Horsemen. I asked ChatGPT to do the math, and it said that betting the +4100 provides better value.

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Min Woo Lee to win the 2026 Players Championship +4400 (DraftKings)
Min Woo Lee is known for his power off the tee, but he’s been incredibly accurate off the tee so far this year. This hasn’t translated to any victories yet, but he’s finished sixth, 12th, and second in his previous three tournaments. Lee’s ability to now be accurate and to spike in approach gives him a good chance to prevail at the Players. In two of his three Players appearances, he’s finished sixth and 20th, and he wasn’t as accurate off the tee heading into those tournaments.

The odds for Lee are +4400 outright on DraftKings, which also has +3200 to win without the Four Horsemen. I asked ChatGPT to do the math, and it said that betting the +4400 provides slightly better value.

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Seppulon Straka to win the 2026 Players Championship +5700 (DraftKings)
Our pal Seppulon Straka looks like a great bet at slightly north of 58/1. He had a great Saturday at Arnold Palmer, and while he didn’t close on Sunday, he’s been hot with his approach and accuracy off the tee. Straka has done well at TPC Sawgrass, finishing 14th, 16th, and ninth in three of his previous four tournaments at this location. Straka, who finished second at Pebble Beach – only behind Morikawa, by the way – seems to be on the verge of winning a tournament.

The odds for Straka are +5700 outright on DraftKings, which also has +4100 to win without the Four Horsemen. I asked ChatGPT to do the math, and it said that betting the +5700 provides better value.

Betting 1 Unit to win 57 (to win +5700) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Players Championship:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Players Championship:

Collin Morikawa +3200 (0.4 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Russell Henley +4000 (0.3 Units) – Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Daniel Berger +4500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Matt Fitzpatrick +4900 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Bobby MacIntyre +5000 (0.3 Units) – Bookmaker

Jake Knapp +5200 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Bud Cauley +9250 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Rasmus Hojgaard +9250 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Mac Meissner +9250 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Michael Thorbjornsen +9250 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Jordan Smith +11000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Seamus Power +12000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Emiliano Grillo +15000 (0.3 Units) – Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars

PGA Bets for the 2026 Arnold Palmer:

Last week hurt. It’s a finish I won’t be forgetting for a long time, and I imagine most of you will feel the same way. Shane Lowry was up three strokes with three holes to go. The live line for him was -2500 or so. He hit the ball into the water on 16 to see his lead shrink a bit. He was still -450 to win entering the 17th hole, but he plopped the ball into the water again. He had such a big lead that he could still have won the tournament with an eagle on the par-five 18th hole, but he couldn’t deliver. Thankfully, we were able to hedge with the winner, but it was still a painful experience because I was already counting the money. It was similar to Justin Thomas’ blown three-stroke lead at the Valspar last year when he hit the ball into the trees and then the sand twice. Given these two finishes, as well as all the bad beats we suffered in the NFL this year, I’m convinced more than ever that I’m cursed.

Let’s hope for better luck at the Arnold Palmer. This tournament is hosted at Bay Hill, which is a course that requires pristine accuracy and great approach play. Scrambling is also important to save par. Putting means less than it does at a birdie fest, but I still wouldn’t want to wager on a golfer with current severe issues on the green (looking at Matt Fitzpatrick and Si Woo Kim.)

Scottie Scheffler is first in the model, so we’ll be playing the “without” markets. Some books have “without Scheffler,” while others have “without Scheffler and McIlroy,” so I’ll make sure to differentiate between the two.

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Arnold Palmer:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Russell Henley
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Si Woo Kim
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Ryan Gerard
8. Matt Fitzpatrick
9. Nick Taylor
10. Shane Lowry
11. Seppulon Straka
12. Ben Griffin
13. Kurt Kitayama
14. Viktor Hovland
15. J.T. Poston
16. Andrew Putnam
17. Min Woo Lee
18. Lucas Glover
19. Xander Schauffele
20. Sam Stevens

Collin Morikawa to win without Scottie Scheffler the 2026 Arnold Palmer +2200 (DraftKings)
On a course that requires pristine accuracy, how could we not bet on Collin Morikawa, who happens to be the most accurate golfer on tour? Morikawa, with his elite accuracy and great approach, is a tremendous fit for this course, and we know that because he finished second here last year. Morikawa won Pebble Beach almost a month ago and then went on to finish seventh at the Genesis, so he could prevail a second time this year. Betting 1.5 Units to win 33 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +2200) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Russell Henley to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer without Scottie Scheffler +2600 (DraftKings)
Russell Henley won this tournament last year, which was no surprise, given that his two best traits are accuracy and approach. He has an eighth-place finish earlier this year, but is coming off a missed cut, so I expect him to be focused entering this weekend.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 39 (to win +2600) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Kurt Kitayama to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer without Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy +3500 (Caesars)
Kurt Kitayama is known for his power off the tee and great approach play, but he’s been surprisingly accurate off the tee so far this year. He’s been incredibly accurate in four of his five tournaments this season, which allowed him to finish second at the Genesis. If this continues, Kitayama will have a good chance of prevailing at the Arnold Palmer, which we know is possible because he won this tournament in 2023. As a bonus, we’re somehow getting a better number for Kitayama to win without both Scheffler and McIroy and Caesars than we are to win without only Scheffler elsewhere.

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Ryan Gerard to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer without Scottie Scheffler +4400 (DraftKings)
Ryan Gerard has never played at this course, but he has the traits to succeed. He’s accurate off the tee, while his approach play is elite. He has two second-place finishes this year, one of which was behind Scheffler at the AmEx, so I like his chances of repeating that at 45/1 odds.

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Seppulon Straka to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer without Scottie Scheffler +4600 (DraftKings)
Our pal Seppulon Straka looks like a great bet at 46/1. He finished second at Pebble Beach earlier in the year, so perhaps he’ll have a great tournament this weekend. Straka seems great here at Bay Hill because of his strong accuracy and approach play. These traits allowed him to finish fifth at the Arnold Palmer last year.

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Andrew Putnam to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer without Scottie Scheffler +33000 (DraftKings)
The best long shot here is Andrew Putnam at a staggering 330/1 to win without Scheffler. This is exactly what he did at the AmEx, where he finished second with a couple of other golfers, including Gerard. Granted, he’s missed the cut in 2-of-2 tournaments since then, but Putnam has a specific skill set where he can be productive at specific courses. Putnam has no power to his game at all, but he’s extremely accurate. This helps him at tricky courses such as Bay Hill, where he finished eighth two years ago.

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Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Arnold Palmer:

TBA

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Arnold Palmer:

Russell Henley +3940 (0.4 Units) – Kalshi

Patrick Cantlay +4493 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Akshay Bhatia +4500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Min Woo Lee +4500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Bobby MacIntyre +4579 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Nicolai Hojgaard +5000 (0.3 Units) – Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Keith Mitchell +6000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Michael Thorbjornsen +6000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Joel Dahmen +7600 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Austin Smotherman +9251 (0.3 Units) – Kalshi

Andrew Novak +11000 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM

PGA Bets for the 2026 Cognizant Classic:

The 2026 Genesis Invitational started well for us, as we won with Rory McIlroy being the first-round leader at +2150. It was a four-way dead heat, but it was still a winning wager. Unfortunately, nothing went our way after that. We appeared to have a chance with Min Woo Lee, but he had a meltdown on Saturday.

We now have the Cognizant Classic, which is a weak field at a birdie-fest golf course. Putting and scrambling are important, but approach is the key factor at this course. Also, the Cognizant Classic tournament is not a bomber fest by any means. Golfers don’t need to be deadly accurate, but spraying the ball all over the place will get those who do so in major trouble.

Who are the other top golfers in the model? Let’s take a look:

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Cognizant Classic:

1. Ryan Gerard
2. Shane Lowry
3. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
4. Aaron Rai
5. David Lipsky
6. Mac Meissner
7. Andrew Putnam
8. Sami Valimaki
9. Tom Kim
10. Nicolai Hojgaard
11. Eric Cole
12. Hao-Tong Li
13. Matt Wallace
14. Stephan Jaegar
15. Will Zalatoris
16. Thorbjorn Olesen
17. Rasmus Hojgaard
18. Davis Thompson
19. Zachary Bauchou
20. John Parry

Ryan Gerard to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +1850 (DraftKings)
DraftKings has some amazing deals to win the Cognizant. Ryan Gerard is +1400 to +1600 in most other sportsbooks, but he’s +1850 on DraftKings. Gerard is the favorite for good reason. He’s one of the top approach players in this field, and he’s an accuracy-over-strength golfer. He can also put extremely well, though that wasn’t the case at the Genesis.

Gerard has also been on the cusp of winning this year. He has two second-place finishes, with one coming at the AmEx, where Scottie Scheffler prevailed. There’s no Scheffler in this field, so that bodes well for Gerard. Betting 1.5 Units to win 27.8 (to win +1850) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Shane Lowry to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +1900 (DraftKings)
Shane Lowry is probably the best golfer at this tournament, which makes you wonder why he’s not the favorite. Lowry’s approach is the best part of his game, and it’s been excellent so far to start this season. It helped him finish eighth at Pebble Beach, where he competed against golfers who are much better than those in this poor field. Lowry’s great approach allowed him to finish fourth at the Cognizant two years ago, so perhaps he’ll win this time.

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Aaron Rai to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +4656 (Bookmaker)
If there’s one golfer who’s know for being accurate over powerful, it’s Aaron Rai. The 30-year-old is one of the most accurate golfers off the tee, and he’s also very good with his approach. He hasn’t had much success this year – outside of his first round at the Genesis – but this golf course is most suited to his skill set.

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Mac Meissner to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +4700 (DraftKings)
Mac Meissner is a very well-rounded golfer with no weaknesses. He’s not overly accurate, but his approach is the best part of his game. Meissner has had a few weeks removed from the Phoenix Open, where he finished 18th against a far tougher field.

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Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +4806 (Bookmaker)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout, or “Alphabet Soup,” as we call him, is another golfer with impecccable accuracy off the tee. He has no power, but that’s not relevant at this tournament. Alphabet Soup has plus approach and putting skills, making him a great play at 48/1.

Betting 1 Unit to win 48.05 (to win +4806) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

David Lipsky to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +15500 (DraftKings)
We’re going with two mega long shots this week. The first is David Lipsky, who most recently finished 18th at the Farmers Open. Lipsky has no power to his game, but that’s OK at this course. Lipsky is very accurate and has shown quality approach thus far early in the season. Lipsky finished third twice last year, so there’s definitely a chance he could win this tournament.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 77.5 (to win +15500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Andrew Putnam to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +16500 (DraftKings)
I can’t believe Andrew Putnam is 165/1. That’s insane. Putnam is a very accurate golfer who finished second in one of his two tournaments this year. He had an 11th-place finish at the Cogniant last year, so we know that he can do well at this tournament.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 82.5 (to win +16500) at DraftKings DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Cognizant Classic:

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Cognizant Classic:

Nicolai Hojgaard +3600 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Davis Thompson +5000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Max McGreevy +5300 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Mac Meissner +6000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Stephan Jaegar +6000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Ricky Castillo +6800 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Austin Eckroat +7400 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Beau Hossler +8000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Sam Ryder +9000 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Jackson Suber +10000 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Zach Bauchou +12500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

PGA Bets for the 2026 Genesis Invitational:

Golf is back! Sure, we’ve had some tournaments already, but there wasn’t enough data to make informed bets. We now have that required data, so let’s get going with what hopefully is a bounce-back 2026 season.

We begin with the Genesis Invitational, which was moved last year due to the California wildfires. It’ll take place at Riveria Country Club, which emphasizes approach play above all else. It’s a long course, so driving distance is significant, but not totally necessary. Scrambling is also key here, as is putting, but to a lesser extent.

Scottie Scheffler is the odds-on favorite at this tournament. He could always win, but he’s never finished above seventh at Riveria. This is surprising because he’s the best approach player on tour, but then again, Scheffler is not a bomber, so the bombers will have an advantage over him off the tee. Still, he’s No. 1 in the model.

Who are the other top golfers in the model? Let’s take a look:

Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Genesis Invitational:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Hideki Matsuyama
4. Maverick McNealy
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Chris Gotterup
8. Min Woo Lee
9. Ryan Gerard
10. Tommy Fleetwood
11. Collin Morikawa
12. Ryo Hisastune
13. Cameron Young
14. Si Woo Kim
15. Matt Fitzpatrick
16. Kurt Kitayama
17. Pierceson Coody
18. Shane Lowry
19. Taylor Pendrith
20. Russell Henley

Hideki Matsuyama to win the 2026 Genesis Invitational without Scottie Scheffler +2000 (FanDuel)
We’re going to enter the Without Scottie Scheffler for our bets because Scheffler is such an overwhelming favorite to win in our model (even though we’re not betting on him.)

My favorite golfer to win the Genesis is Hideki Matsuyama. He won this event the last time it was played at Riveria, and it’s easy to see why. Matsuyama is sixth in approach and first in scrambling amongst all the golfers in this tournament. He’s not a bomber, but he drives the ball well enough to compete at courses like this.

Furthermore, Matsuyama has been hot lately. He finished second at the Phoenix Open and eighth at Pebble Beach. He should be ready to win this tournament.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 30 (to win +2000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Chris Gotterup to win the 2026 Genesis Invitational without Scottie Scheffler +2800 (BetMGM)
Chris Gotterup has been the hottest golfer on tour to begin the year. He has two wins in four tournaments, and perhaps he’ll get a third at a course that suits his skills. Gotterup has great power off the tee, so he’ll be able to have an advantage over the weaker golfers at this event. His approach play and scrambling have also been terrific, so it’s not like he’s some one-trick pony. There’s a reason why he’s prevailed at two tournaments thus far. The odds aren’t as great as they would have been a few weeks ago, but Gotterup is still worth betting at 28/1.

Betting 1 Unit to win 28 (to win +2800) at BetMGM

Maverick McNealy to win the 2026 Genesis Invitational without Scottie Scheffler +3500 (Caesars)
Maverick McNealy is fourth in my model. He has positive marks in all three major categories, namely approach and driving distance. McNealy has finished 10th and 13th in two of his previous three tournaments, so while he hasn’t nearly won a tournament this year, he has golfed well and could challenge for the win at this event.

Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) at Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Min Woo Lee to win the 2026 Genesis Invitational without Scottie Scheffler +4000 (Caesars)
Min Woo Lee just finished second at Pebble Beach because of spiked approach play. Lee isn’t the best approach player by any means, but he’s decent in that element of his game, and if he can repeat what he did in that regard last week, then he can win this event because he has great driving distance and solid scrambling ability.

Betting 1 Unit to win 40 (to win +4000) at Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Ryan Gerard to win the 2026 Genesis Invitational without Scottie Scheffler +5100 (DraftKings)
Ryan Gerard has two second-place finishes this year, but he’d have a first-place finish if Scottie Scheffler hadn’t been at the AmEx. Gerard has decent power off the tee, but his calling card is his excellent approach play, which bodes well for him at this tournament. Gerard is hit or miss as far as scrambling is concerned, but his putter has been hot.

Betting 1 Unit to win 51 (to win +5100) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Ryo Hisatsune to win the 2026 Genesis Invitational without Scottie Scheffler +8700 (DraftKings)
Here’s our long shot of the week, though I don’t think Ryo Hisatsune should be this much of a long shot. In his previous three tournaments, Hisatsune has finished second, 10th, and eighth. He has spiked in all three major categories necessary to win at this course, as well as putting. Hisatsune has been an inconsistent putter over the years, but if he’s found something to fix that element of his game, then he can certainly win here with his solid driving distance and quality approach play.

Betting 1 Unit to win 87 (to win +8700) at Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Genesis Invitational:

Ryo Hisatsune over Corey Conners +103 (0.7 Units to win 0.5 Units) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker

These bets are for 72 holes.

Ryo Hisatsune is one of our picks to win outright (without Scottie Scheffler), so I like him over the 60th golfer in our model. Corey Conners’ putting has been a disaster this year, so I’ll be surprised if he does well at this tournament.

First-Round Leader at the 2026 Genesis Invitational:

Rory McIlroy +2150 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (0.4 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Hideki Matsuyama +3000 (0.4 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Jake Knapp +3900 (0.4 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Adam Scott +4500 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM

Shane Lowry +5400 (0.3 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Patrick Rodgers +8800 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM, boosted 10%

2026 NFL Season Preview: Buffalo Bills

Walt — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 02:43:22 +0000

Buffalo Bills

2026 NFL Season Preview:

Veteran Additions:
QB Kyle Allen, FB Ben VanSumeren, WR D.J. Moore, G Austin Corbett, DE Bradley Chubb, DE Mike Danna, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S Geno Stone.
Draft Picks:
DE T.J. Parker, CB Davison Igbinosun, ILB Kaleb Elarms-Orr, WR Skyler Bell, OT Jude Bowry. Bills Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
QB Mitchell Trubisky, FB Reggie Gilliam, WR Curtis Samuel, G David Edwards, DE Joey Bosa, DE A.J. Epenesa, DT DaQuan Jones, DT Larry Ogunjobi, ILB Matt Milano, ILB Shaq Thompson, CB Taron Johnson, CB Tre’Davious White, CB Darius Slay, S Taylor Rapp, S Jordan Poyer, S Cam Lewis, K Matt Prater.

2026 Buffalo Bills Offense:
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs formed a deadly combination when they played together prior to 2024. Following Diggs’ departure, Allen lacked a No. 1 receiver, which capped the absolute upside of Buffalo’s offense. The Bills didn’t do anything about this following the 2024 season, but they made amends for that mistake with a trade for D.J. Moore.

Buffalo’s decision to swap a second-round pick for Moore was panned by many analysts on social media, but it was a great decision. Moore is coming off a down year, but still has a couple of seasons remaining until he turns 30. He is very dangerous whenever he gets his hands on the ball. He didn’t take well to Ben Johnson’s offense, which would explain the regression in 2025. He’ll be motivated to prove that the Bears were at fault for his poor season. Khalil Shakir will continue to be a big part of the scoring attack as the team’s slot receiver. Joshua Palmer, Keon Coleman, and fourth-round rookie Skyler Bell figure to be involved as well, but there’s not much hope with them.

In addition to the receivers, Allen will be able to utilize his two talented tight ends, though there’s concern at the position. Dalton Kincaid is not healthy. He’s dealing with a knee issue, and the coaching staff stated that he will be on a limited snap count this year. Kincaid won’t play as much in 2026, but he’ll make his snaps count. There’s also Dawson Knox, who posted big numbers last year when Kincaid was sidelined.

Allen’s best threat will continue to be James Cook. The dynamic back has been a touchdown machine over the past two seasons, and there’s no reason to believe that will change. Cook, who rushed for 1,621 yards last year, has 109 receptions over the past three seasons.

Allen and Cook were helped by a solid offensive line. The Bills have an excellent tandem of tackles with Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. Dawkins is the best blocker on the line, while Brown, a recent third-round pick, has developed into a quality right tackle.

The interior blocking is not as good as the tackle play. In fact, Buffalo’s top interior blocker from last year, David Edwards, signed a $61 million deal with the Saints. The Bills brought in Austin Corbett to replace Edwards. Corbett is a fine blocker, but he won’t be as good as Edwards. The other starters in the interior figure to be Connor McGovern and O’Cyrus Torrence. McGovern is a fine player, while Torrence has struggled thus far in his career.

2026 Buffalo Bills Defense:
The Bills traded for D.J. Moore, but this wasn’t the only highly impactful move they made this offseason. They also made a major signing, acquiring Bradley Chubb. The former Bronco and Dolphin edge rusher can be a dominant player. He logged 8.5 sacks last year despite coming off a torn ACL. Now another year removed from that injury, Chubb should be a double-digit sack artist like he was in 2023.

Chubb will join an edge rotation with Greg Rousseau, newly signed Mike Danna, and second-round rookie T.J. Parker. Rousseau had seven sacks in 2025, though he notched an impressive 55 quarterback pressures. Danna was once considered a young, promising player, but never lived up to it. Parker had a disappointing final year in college, but has loads of potential.

The Bills will be hoping for more pressure from their three-man front. They should get that with the talented Ed Oliver, though it remains to be seen how Oliver will be able to play in the team’s new 3-4 formation. The other starters on the front are slated to be T.J. Sanders and Deone Walker, who were chosen in the second and fourth rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft, respectively. This is not good news because neither was particularly effective last year. Walker was a mediocre player who could make a jump, but Sanders was dreadful.

Any sort of bolstered pass rush obviously will be great for the secondary. The Bills added numerous players to this area of their defense, though Christian Benford and Maxwell Hairston will reprise their roles as the starting outside cornerbacks. Benford is normally a terrific player, but is coming off a bit of a down year. He’s only 25, so he could easily rebound. Meanwhile, Hairston missed six games in his rookie campaign, but once he returned, he played relatively well. Buffalo added second-round pick Davison Igbinosun for depth purposes, as well as Dee Alford to play the nickel in the wake of Taron Johnson’s departure. Johnson was great for the Bills, so he’ll be missed. Alford wasn’t nearly as good last year.

Buffalo also signed a new safety, obtaining Chauncey Gardner-Johnson via free agency. Gardner-Johnson is a talented player, but has a history of injuries and locker room issues. Teams often have short-term success with him, so perhaps the Bills will experience the same phenomenon. Gardner-Johnson will start next to Cole Bishop, an extremely talented safety who is only 23.

While the Bills will continue to play well against the pass, their inability to stop the run could continue to be an issue. Matt Milano, once a great linebacker, struggled mightily due to injury last year, and is now off the team. The lone remaining starter at the position, Terrel Bernard, has regressed in each of his three years as a starter, so that’s a trend he’ll need to reverse. The other linebackers competing for playing time are Dorian Williams and fourth-round rookie Kaleb Elarms-Orr. Williams struggled in several starts last year, so this figures to once again be a problem area for Buffalo.

2026 Buffalo Bills Schedule and Intangibles:
Tyler Bass had hip and groin injuries, causing him to miss all of 2025. He’ll be back as the team’s kicker. He was 24-of-29 in 2024.

Buffalo has a new punter. Seventh-round rookie Tommy Doman Jr. will handle the punting duties.

The Bills have a very difficult schedule. They open up against the Texans, Lions, Chargers, Patriots, and Rams. They later battle the Ravens, Chiefs, Bears, and Broncos.

2026 Buffalo Bills Rookies:
Go here for the Bills Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.

2026 Buffalo Bills Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):

Quarterbacks	Offensive Line	Secondary
Running Backs	Defensive Line	Special Teams
Receivers	Linebackers	Coaching

2026 Buffalo Bills Analysis: The Bills found a No. 1 receiver for Josh Allen and enhanced their pass rush by signing Bradley Chubb. They have a very difficult schedule, but they’re one of the best teams in the NFL. If their run defense is better than expected, they’ll have a good chance to finally advance to the Super Bowl.

Projection: 13-4 (1st in AFC East)

2025 Projection: 15-2. 2025 Actual Result: 12-5.
2024 Projection: 11-6. 2024 Actual Result: 13-4.
2023 Projection: 13-4. 2023 Actual Result: 11-6.
2022 Projection: 14-3. 2022 Actual Result: 13-3.
2021 Projection: 14-3. 2021 Actual Result: 11-6.
2020 Projection: 11-5. 2020 Actual Result: 13-3.
2019 Projection: 9-7. 2019 Actual Result: 10-6.
2018 Projection: 3-13. 2018 Actual Result: 6-10.
2017 Projection: 5-11. 2017 Actual Result: 9-7.
2016 Projection: 8-8. 2016 Actual Result: 7-9.

NFL Draft Team Grade: C+ Grade

Goals Entering the 2026 NFL Draft: Even though the Bills traded for D.J. Moore, they still could stand to add one more receiver so they can fully turn their weakness into a strength. The Bills also need to address their putrid run defense by acquiring defensive tackle and linebacker help.

2026 NFL Draft Accomplishments: Buffalo fans were understandably frustrated on Thursday because their team traded down twice from No. 26 and failed to make a pick in the first round. While they acquired some draft capital, they also allowed the Patriots to secure the final first-round tackle prospect in the first round, which could end up being detrimental in future matchups.

The Bills eventually picked at No. 35, taking T.J. Parker. This was a solid selection, but Buffalo’s other second-round choice was not, as it was a major reach on Davison Igbinosun. Even worse, the Bills squandered whatever capital they earned in an irresponsible trade up for him. They probably could have traded down and acquired him instead.

Trades and Igbinosun aside, the Bills had a fine draft. I really like what they did on Day 3, securing plenty of quality values, including Jude Bowry, Skyler Bell, and Jalon Kilgore. Kilgore, in particular, was a tremendous bargain because he could have gone at the end of Round 2 with no complaints.

The Bills definitely made a couple of mistakes in this draft – namely helping their arch rival and top competitor – but they didn’t do a bad job overall.

NFL Draft Individual Grades:

35. T.J. Parker, DE, Clemson – B Grade

This is a fine pick, as the Bills know that they need to battle some great quarterbacks in the AFC. T.J. Parker has a load of potential and was once viewed as a first-round prospect, but didn’t have a great final year. Perhaps he can live up to expectations in Buffalo. I personally would have preferred a receiver or one of the linebackers.

62. Davison Igbinosun, CB, Ohio State – D Grade

I’m not sure why the Bills thought they had to trade up for a cornerback I had in the fourth round. They could have just taken Davison Igbinosun in the third frame, and it wouldn’t have been that great either. Igbinosun is a big corner, but was heavily penalized in school.

102. Jude Bowry, OT/G, Boston College – B+ Grade

The Bills lost personnel on the offensive line this offseason, so it makes sense for them to make this pick. Jude Bowry can play both tackle and guard, and I thought he’d go in the Round 3-4 range.

125. Skyler Bell, WR, Connecticut – A- Grade

Another receiver had to be added to turn a weakness into a potential strength. Skyler Bell is a speedy receiver, but is weak and needs to bulk up for the NFL. I had him going in the third round, so there’s some value with this choice.

126. Kaleb Elarms-Orr, ILB, TCU – B+ Grade

I had Kaleb Elarms-Orr going at this exact pick in my mock draft, so I have to like it. The Bills desperately needed linebacker help, and Elarms-Orr is a fine pick here as an athletic linebacker with upside.

167. Jalon Kilgore, CB/S, South Carolina – A+ Grade

Jalon Kilgore is a very versatile and talented defensive back who can play cornerback and safety. He should have gone much earlier than this – I had him in the second and third round of my mock drafts – so the Bills are getting a steal in the middle of Round 5.

181. Zane Durant, DT, Penn State – B Grade

Zane Durant is a quick defensive tackle, but is a bit undersized. He can potentially help the Bills generate more quarterback pressure. I had him going in Round 6, so the range makes sense.

220. Toriano Pride Jr., CB, Missouri – B Grade

Toriano Pride Jr. has great speed, but is undersized and struggles to tackle. I had Pride going around this range. Buffalo has had depth issues at cornerback, so pride could help in that regard.

239. Tommy Doman, P, Florida – C+ Grade

Nothing exciting to say with this pick. The Bills took a player who gives the ball back to the other team.

241. Ar’maj Reed-Adams, G, Texas A&M – B+ Grade

Ar’maj Reed-Adams is a strong and lengthy blocker, but he’s not quick and commits lots of penalties. Protecting Josh Allen is paramount, so offensive line depth is welcome. I had Reed-Adams in the sixth round.

2026 NFL Mock Draft | 2027 NFL Mock Draft

Fantasy Football Rankings - June 22

2027 NFL Mock Draft - June 16

NFL Picks - Feb. 9

NFL Power Rankings - Jan. 26

NFL Draft Links:

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2026

Walt — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 21:22:56 +0000

2026 NFL Picks: 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,0550)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. X, 2:00 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2 Early Games

Detroit Lions (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
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Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
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New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
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Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
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Week 2 NFL Pick:

Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games
Jaguars at Broncos, Raiders at Chargers, Redskins at Cowboys, Seahawks at Cardinals, Dolphins at 49ers, Colts at Chiefs, Giants at Rams

Fantasy Football Rankings - June 22

2027 NFL Mock Draft - June 16

NFL Picks - Feb. 9

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2025): 1-1 (+$1,205)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2025): 0-1 (-$310)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2025): 1-0 (+$400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2025): 1-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2025): +$1,115

2025 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$655)

2025 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-138-4, 52.6% (+$5,245)
2025 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 55-43-1, 56.1% (+$1,320)
2025 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-23-1, 47.7% (-$2,945)
2025 Season Over-Under: 151-130-1, 53.7% ($0)
2025 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$6,035

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 147-137-12, 51.8% (-$1,380)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 40-45-1, 47.0% (-$1,390)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-25-2, 53.7% (+$855)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2024 Season Over-Under: 141-138-6, 50.5% (+$95)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,230

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,445)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,686-3,402-211, 52.0% (+$25,660)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,193-1,066-58 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 601-530-27 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 3,122-3,080-81 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 51-39-1 (56.7%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 7-10	Bears: 6-11	Bucs: 14-3	49ers: 13-6
Eagles: 7-11	Lions: 8-9	Falcons: 9-7	Cardinals: 9-8
Giants: 5-11	Packers: 6-10	Panthers: 10-8	Rams: 12-8
Redskins: 6-11	Vikings: 11-6	Saints: 14-3	Seahawks: 12-7

Bills: 8-11	Bengals: 11-6	Colts: 9-7	Broncos: 11-8
Dolphins: 9-8	Browns: 7-10	Jaguars: 10-8	Chargers: 7-11
Jets: 7-10	Ravens: 6-11	Texans: 11-8	Chiefs: 5-12
Patriots: 13-7	Steelers: 4-13	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 12-5

Divisional: 46-52 (2011-24: 654-616)	2x Game Edge: 44-47 (2011-24: 436-413)	2x Motivation Edge: 46-47 (2011-24: 560-486)	2x Spread Edge: 43-33 (2011-24: 261-258)
2x Vegas Edge: 62-43 (2011-24: 511-522)	2x Trend Edge: 12-15 (2011-24: 336-308)	Double Edge: 22-17 (2011-24: 230-208)	Triple Edge: 9-3 (2011-24: 38-47)

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2026

Walt — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 21:22:56 +0000

Vegas betting action updated Oct. X, 2:00 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7 Late Games

Denver Broncos (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)
Line: . Total: .
Sunday, Oct. 25, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

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The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

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Week 7 NFL Pick:

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
Line: . Total: .
Sunday, Oct. 25, 4:25 PM

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The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

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Week 7 NFL Pick:

Los Angeles Rams (0-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-0)
Line: . Total: .
Sunday, Oct. 25, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

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WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
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The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

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Week 7 NFL Pick:

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)
Line: . Total: .
Sunday, Oct. 25, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

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WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
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The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

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Week 7 NFL Pick:

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: . Total: .
Monday, Oct. 26, 8:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: .

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: .

Opening Total: .

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick:

week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games
Patriots at Bears, Steelers at Saints, 49ers at Falcons, Browns at Titans, Colts at Vikings, Dolphins at Jets, Buccaneers at Panthers, Bengals at Ravens, Giants at Texans

Fantasy Football Rankings - June 22

2027 NFL Mock Draft - June 16

NFL Picks - Feb. 9

NFL Power Rankings - Jan. 26

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Cowboys: 7-10	Bears: 6-11	Bucs: 14-3	49ers: 13-6
Eagles: 7-11	Lions: 8-9	Falcons: 9-7	Cardinals: 9-8
Giants: 5-11	Packers: 6-10	Panthers: 10-8	Rams: 12-8
Redskins: 6-11	Vikings: 11-6	Saints: 14-3	Seahawks: 12-7

Bills: 8-11	Bengals: 11-6	Colts: 9-7	Broncos: 11-8
Dolphins: 9-8	Browns: 7-10	Jaguars: 10-8	Chargers: 7-11
Jets: 7-10	Ravens: 6-11	Texans: 11-8	Chiefs: 5-12
Patriots: 13-7	Steelers: 4-13	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 12-5

Divisional: 46-52 (2011-24: 654-616)	2x Game Edge: 44-47 (2011-24: 436-413)	2x Motivation Edge: 46-47 (2011-24: 560-486)	2x Spread Edge: 43-33 (2011-24: 261-258)
2x Vegas Edge: 62-43 (2011-24: 511-522)	2x Trend Edge: 12-15 (2011-24: 336-308)	Double Edge: 22-17 (2011-24: 230-208)	Triple Edge: 9-3 (2011-24: 38-47)