I am a long time reader of this site with a new angle (for me) that I'd like to share with everyone. I have been a moderately successful gambler in both horse racing and sports betting over the years. I never gamble for large stakes but that is just my action preference. Most of my winnings are in the long term games like survivor pools, triple crown pools and pick-em pools but recently I have started to make some money in more traditional betting with both single games and parleys. This new angle that I'd like to test out live with all of you is mainly because I temporarily don't have an active online account right now. In the interim I have been playing virtually and doing well so I will share my strategy and my picks so hopefully readers here can make money even if I can't (even if its fading my picks). I was looking for a way to get past the vig and wondered if I could move the line upward could I pick well enough to make up for the difficulty in doing so...
Math first - I'll keep it brief
Normal -110 one unit plays: 52.5% approx to break-even
Moving the line to +200 one unit plays: 33.3% to break-even
There are two major obstacles to winning with this method: 1) Your book must allow you to pick your own spread. 2) You must be able to pick superspread winners.
I have found that it usually takes an extra touchdown in spread or total to move the line from -110 to +200. This is far easier in college than the pros but the theory still works with both. I am having a good year right now so this may not be a long term play and might only work for COVID but let's see together...
I'll post this week's plays here and show my prior week's plays in a different article.
This week I only found 3 Saturday games that I felt I could beat the spread at sugarhouse (easiest interface I found for alternate spreads) by a touchdown (or more):
UNC -16.5 @ +195
Rutgers +5 @ +205
Ok State -10.5 @ +200