PGA Bets for the Houston Open

Scottie Scheffler
PGA Picks (2024 Genesis): -$400
PGA Picks (2024 Mexico Open): -$45
PGA Picks (2024 Cognizant): +$200
PGA Picks (2024 Arnold Palmer): -$400
PGA Picks (2024 Players Championship): +$1,500
PGA Picks (2024 Valspar): -$290

PGA Picks (2024): +$565
PGA Picks (2023): +$7,020
PGA Picks (2020): +$270
Arnold Palmer Invitational

PGA Bets for the Houston Open:



Xander Schauffele didn’t come through for us last week, finishing fifth after a late charge on Sunday. Congrats to Peter Malnati for winning. If you didn’t see Malnati’s teary-eyed post-tournament interview, it’s worth watching.

Scottie Scheffler is back on the menu this week, which means we’re going to be betting him. However, there are some long shots of interest.

Scottie Scheffler to win the Houston Open +275 (FanDuel)
Scottie Scheffler was already the best golfer in the world prior to March despite his issues with the putter. After taking some time off and changing his putter, Scheffler has been putting extremely well. In fact, he finished first in putting on Sunday of the Players Championship, which is insane. If Scheffler continues to putt at a high level, no one is going to beat him. I know +275 sucks to bet, but Scheffler should be closer to +100 in this field. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

Betting 3 Units to win 8.25 (to win +275) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM

Alex Noren to win the Houston Open +4050 (Bookmaker)
Alex Noren checks in second in my model behind Scottie Scheffler. Noren is a great fit for this course, and he’s been golfing well lately, finishing ninth and 19th in his previous two tournaments.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 20.25 (to win +4050) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Billy Horschel to win the Houston Open +7050 (Bookmaker)
Billy Horschel is third in my model behind Scheffler and Noren. Horschel finished ninth three tournaments ago. He’s a good golfer who has what it takes to win if Scheffler inexplicably slips up.

Betting 0.3 Units to win 21.15 (to win +7050)

Andrew Novak to win the Houston Open +14550 (Bookmaker)
Here’s my long shot to win. Andrew Novak is 145/1 at Bookmaker, yet he’s fourth in my model. He’s had some great finishes recently as well. In four of his previous five tournaments, Novak has finished eighth, eighth, ninth, and 17th.

Betting 0.15 Units to win 21.83 (to win +14550) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel



PGA Bets for the Valspar Championship:



Congrats if you hit with Scottie Scheffler last week. It was the first time we bet a favorite this year, and it paid off. If Scheffler has figured out his putting, he’s going to win so tournaments this year.

Scheffler is not in the field this week, so it’s wide open. My pick to win is Xander Schauffele, but he’s the favorite and priced unfavorably at +650. I may want to bet him live at some point, but the only golfer I’d bet at that number is Scheffler.

Doug Ghim to win the Valspar Championship +5000 (FanDuel)
Doug Ghim is a great bet to win the Valspar. He’s finished 13th, 12th, eighth, 16th, and 16th in his previous five tournaments. He fits this course extremely well. In a diminished field, he could definitely win this week. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 1 Unit to win 50 (to win +5000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Billy Horschel to win the Valspar Championship +10551 (Bookmaker)
Billy Horschel is 105/1, yet he’s actually No. 1 in my model. He’s third in greens in regulation and does well in par-three scoring, both of which are key for this course. Horschel finished ninth two tournaments ago, and this is a weak field outside of Schauffele and Sam Burns.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 52.75 (to win +10551)

Ben Silverman to win the Valspar Championship +20000 (FanDuel)
Ben Silverman has three top-20 finishes this year, and now he’ll be playing in a weaker field. Silverman projects well for this course because he scores highly in the two major categories and also putts well. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 0.25 Units to win 50 (to win +20000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Hayden Springer to win the Valspar Championship +35000 (FanDuel)
Hayden Springer is my super long shot to win this tournament. I can’t believe he’s 350/1. Springer finished third at the Puerto Rico Open a couple of weeks ago. He rates highly in greens in regulation and par-three scoring, and he also putts well. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 0.15 Units to win 52.5 (to win +35000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Xander Schauffele to win the Valspar Championship +1600 (FanDuel)
As promised above, I wanted to bet Xander Schauffele at a better number. He was +625, but he’s now 16/1. He’s four strokes back of the lead, which seems doable. Schauffele is the best golfer in this field, and I believe he will win. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 1 Unit to win 16 (to win +1600) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel



PGA Bets for the Players Championship:



Shane Lowry looked like he had a chance once again on Sunday as our 75/1 long shot, but he and everyone else got steamrolled by Scottie Scheffler.

The Players Championship is one of the toughest courses on the tour. Seventeen of the 18 holes have water hazards. We’re looking at golfers with high greens-in-regulation percentages, as well as those who have good form at the moment.

Scottie Scheffler to win the Players Championship +550 (every sportsbook)
I seldom bet the favorite, but if Scottie Scheffler figured out his putter, the entire PGA tour is in trouble because he could go on a Tiger Woods-type run and win everything. Scheffler is the best ball striker on tour, but his putting has been terrible. Yet, he was first in putting during the final round last weekend! Whatever Scheffler did during his week off is paying dividends. If it continues, he’ll win this tournament easily. He’s first in greens-in-regulation percentage, and no one has better form than him. He even won this tournament last year. When factoring everything in, +550 actually seems like a good deal.

Betting 3 Units to win 16.5 (to win +550)

Si-Woo Kim to win the Players Championship +5500 (FanDuel)
We can take some long shots to accompany our Scottie Scheffler bet. Si-Woo Kim is a previous winner at this tournament. He’s 17th in greens-in-regulation percentage and has performed well lately. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 27.5 (to win +5500) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Tony Finau to win the Players Championship +6000 (FanDuel)
Tony Finau is 11th in greens-in-regulation percentage, and he’s great with his irons. In three of the past four tournaments, he’s gone sixth, 13th, and 19th. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 30 (to win +6000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Keith Mitchell to win the Players Championship +10000 (FanDuel)
Keith Mitchell is one of two extreme long shots at 100/1. Mitchell is third in greens-in-regulation percentage. In his previous three tournaments, he’s finished 17th, 19th, and ninth. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 0.25 Units to win 25 (to win +10000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Doug Ghim to win the Players Championship +11000 (FanDuel)
Doug Ghim is my second long shot. Ghim has been hot this year. In his previous four tournaments, he’s finished 16th, eighth, 12th, and 13th. Speaking of 13th, that would be Ghim’s ranking in greens-in-regulation percentage. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 0.25 Unit to win 27.5 (to win +11000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel



PGA Bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational:



Ugh. For the second week in a row, we had someone 41/1 or better tied on Sunday, only to see them choke.

The Arnold Palmer Classic features one of the toughest golf courses on the tour. It requires golfers to be excellent in all metrics, particularly in approach.

Xander Schauffele to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +1850 (Bookmaker)
Xander Schauffele is my pick to win the Arnold Palmer. He has no flaws in his game. He could be a bit more accurate, but he’s great elsewhere. He’s also been so close to winning this year. He’s gotten 10th, third, ninth and fourth place in four of his five events.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 27.75 (to win +1850)

Collin Morikawa to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +2650 (Bookmaker)
Collin Morikawa is pretty close to Xander Schauffele. Morikawa is great at everything except putting, which isn’t as prevalent on this course as it is on some others. He has gotten top 20 in all but one tournament this year, including fifth at the Sentry.

Betting 1 Unit to win 26.5 (to win +2650)

Sam Burns to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +2750 (Bookmaker)
Sam Burns is in the top five of my model, but I wasn’t sure if I wanted to bet him at a price lower than 35/1. However, Jacob Camenker told me that he has Burns No. 1 in his model, so perhaps there’s a reason that Burns is just +2750.

Betting 1 Unit to win 27.5 (to win +2750)

Jake Knapp to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +6000 (FanDuel)
Jake Knapp is a 29-year-old rookie who has been awesome this year. In his previous three tournaments, he’s finished third, first, and fourth. It was remarkable how well he did last weekend after winning the Mexico Open. He grades out extremely well in the model, so 60/1 seems like a great value. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 30 (to win +6000)

Shane Lowry to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +7500 (FanDuel)
We’re riding with Shane Lowry again as one of our two long shots. Lowry is a great fit for this course, as he excels in all the major categories essential for the Arnold Palmer. Hopefully he doesn’t choke on Sunday again! You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 0.5 Unit to win 37.5 (to win +7500)

Mathieu Pavon to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +9000 (FanDuel)
Mathieu Pavon has been one of the best golfers this year. In three of his five tournaments, he’s finished third, first, and seventh. He’s great in all categories, so 90/1 seems like a steal. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 45 (to win +9000)



PGA Bets for the Cognizant Classic:



What a disappointment. Sami Valimaki had the Mexico Open for the taking, but hit the water on 10 and that was that. I tweeted out a hedge on Jake Knapp, so we got that at least.

We move on to the Cognizant Classic, which is the first year it’s being called the Cognizant Classic, so I’m not sure why it’s a “classic.” I know this used to be the Honda Classic, but still.

This course is the opposite of the Mexico Open. The Mexico Open called for great driving distance, while the Cognizant Classic contains so many water hazards that accuracy is most important, followed by approach play.

Shane Lowry to win the Cognizant Classic +4151 (Bookmaker)
Shane Lowry is first in my model. He’s extremely accurate. He’s ranked highly in approach. He tends to play well on water-heavy courses. He has a great course history. He finished second and fifth at this tournament in the past two seasons. He’s a steal at 41/1 at Bookmaker.

Betting 1.25 Units to win 51.89 (to win +4151)

Daniel Berger to win the Cognizant Classic +5250 (Bookmaker)
Daniel Berger is right behind Lowry in my model. He’s a very similar golfer to Lowry. He also has a great course and course-type history. The last time he played at this course, he finished fourth.

Betting 1 Unit to win 52.5 (to win +5250)

Chris Kirk to win the Cognizant Classic +4001 (Bookmaker)
Chris Kirk is third in my model. He won this tournament last year, and he’s been excellent thus far this season with a win at the Sentry nearly two months ago.

Betting 1 Unit to win 40.01 (to win +4001)

Seppulon Straka to win the Cognizant Classic +4501 (Bookmaker)
We rode Seppulon Straka to victory last year at the John Deere Classic, so let’s do that again at this tournament! Straka won the Honda Classic two years ago, and he’s an amazing fit for this course.

Betting 1 Unit to win 45.01 (to win +4501)

Carson Young to win the Cognizant Classic +12500 (BetMGM)
Here’s my long shot to win this tournament. Carson Young has made great strides to improve his game – he just finished eighth at the Mexico Open, which wasn’t even a tremendous course fit for him – and now he may be ready to take down a PGA tournament. His accuracy and approach metrics are both excellent, so he’s a great fit for this course. Unlike the other bets, the best number can be found at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

Betting 0.25 Units to win 31.25 (to win +12500) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM

Hedges:
Shane Lowry is in a great position to win, but it’s worth hedging. I like Austin Eckroat – he rated relatively highly in my model – and I’m not a believer in this David Skinns guy, so I will do the following:

Austin Eckroat to win +350 (2 Units) – BetMGM
David Skinns to win +800 (0.5 Units) – BetMGM
You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

PGA Bets for the Mexico Open:



The Gensis Invitational didn’t go so well, as Hideki Matsuyama not only won, but broke the course record. We didn’t have him ranked highly in the model, so the course may not have been diagnosed correctly. I think the Mexico Open is more predictable.

Taylor Pendrith to win the Mexico Open +2850 (Bookmaker)
Tony Finau is No. 1 in my model, but he’s +750 or so. Taylor Pendrith is right behind Finau at No. 2, and yet he’s +2850 at Bookmaker. This course calls for either great power or tremendous long iron play, and Pendrith is fantastic in both regards.

Betting 1.5 Units to win 42.75 (to win +2850)

Davis Thompson to win the Mexico Open +4250 (Bookmaker)
Davis Thompson is third in the model. He’s a top-15 player when it comes to long irons, and he has enough power to blast the ball past the bunkers on this course. Thompson is 35/1 in most places, but you can get +4250 at Bookmaker.

Betting 1 Unit to win 42.5 (to win +4250)

Brandon Wu to win the Mexico Open +4853 (Bookmaker)
Brandon Wu has mastered this course. In the past two years, he’s finished third and second. Now, Jon Rahm is gone, so Wu has a great chance to win it. Wu is a great irons player and putts extremely well on this grass. He’s fifth in the model.

Betting 1 Unit to win 48.53 (to win +4853)

Sami Valimaki to win the Mexico Open +11000 (FanDuel)
Here’s my long shot. Sami Valimaki is a European golfer who hits the ball with great power. He won a tournament on the European tour in October. I wouldn’t like him against the top PGA golfers, but this is not a strong field by any means. Valimaki ranks fourth in the model, yet is 110/1! Unlike the other picks, the best sportsbook for this wager is FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Betting 0.25 Units to win 27.5 (to win +11000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Jake Knapp Hedge +110 (FanDuel)
Posted on Twitter.

Betting 3 Units to win 3.3 (to win +110) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel



PGA Bets for the Genesis Invitational:



The NFL season is over, so our golf picks are back! I don’t like making golf bets in January anyway because the layoff could impact everyone’s game, which skews the stats as a result. Now that we’ve had some tournaments to begin the 2024 season, we have some good data to hopefully make some great bets like we did in 2023.

Sam Burns to win the Genesis Invitational +2250 (Bookmaker)
I’m jealous of those who were able to get Sam Burns at 35/1, and even 25/1. This number has been hammered down for good reason. Burns is actually No. 1 in my model. He’s been hot to start 2024, finishing in the top 10 in the previous three events. I don’t mind 22/1 on Burns when he’s my No. 1 golfer this week.

Betting 1 Unit to win 22.5 (to win +2250)

Wyndham Clark to win the Genesis Invitational +4650 (Bookmaker)
This number is shocking. Wyndham Clark is one of the top golfers in the world. He’s won three tournaments since May 2023. He’s also a perfect fit for this golf course with his great power. And yet, he’s just 46.5/1? Clark is No. 2 in my model this week, so I’m more than happy to bet him at +4650.

Betting 1 Unit to win 46.5 (to win +4650)

Sahith Theegala to win the Genesis Invitational +3500 (DraftKings)
Sahith Theegala is knocking on the door of a trophy with two top-five finishes this season. He’s a great fit for this golf course – he’s fifth in my model – so he’s a great bet at 35/1. Shopping around is key, as I’ve seen Theegala as low as 22/1 at some books. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings

Kurt Kitayama to win the Genesis Invitational +9050 (Bookmaker); to finish top 10 +500 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)
Kurt Kitayama is my long shot this week. He’s about 90/1 despite being 11th in my model. He has great power, so he’s a great fit for this course. I’m also going to take a shot on him finishing in the top 10 at 5/1, which you can find at any sportsbook.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 45.25 (to win +9050)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 2.5 (top 10 +500)

To check out our 2023 PGA Picks, click the link.