NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)

NFL Picks (2015): 39-40-2 (-$2,605)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 12, 5:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (3-1) at Detroit Lions (0-4)
Line: Cardinals by 4. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -3.
Sunday, Oct 11, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Survivor Update: We had 2,653 people enter, and had 2,282 still alive after Week 1. And then, Week 2 happened. The Colts, Saints, Ravens and Dolphins murdered almost everyone, and as a consequence, there were only 164 players remaining. We’re now down to 116 now, as Arizona burned many in Week 4.

If you’re still alive, make sure you get your WalterFootball.com 2015 NFL Survivor Pool pick in.

I’m currently talking to my developer about a Survivor Redemption contest because almost everyone was knocked out so early. Those who are still alive in the original contest would be enter in as well. Stay tuned for updates.

Oh, and, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

DETROIT OFFENSE: You really have to feel for the Lions. They played their first clean game of the season at Seattle, making zero mistakes for the first 58 minutes, yet in complete irony, the officials were the ones who screwed up, failing to give Detroit possession once K.J. Wright batted a Calvin Johnson fumble out of the back of the end zone. The Lions, now 0-4, are pretty much done for the season.

It was odd to see the Lions not screw up, especially against a great Seattle defense. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if they went back to their old ways. Would it shock anyone if Matthew Stafford happened to be responsible for three turnovers, especially against a stalwart Arizona stop unit? It could definitely happen, and the Cardinals are certainly capable of getting to the quarterback, especially against a poor offensive line. The Lions definitely have one of those, as Stafford is protected poorly. He had to dink and dunk into oblivion Monday night, and doing so produced only two quality drives.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: While the Lions were clean Monday, the Cardinals were quite sloppy the day before. They couldn’t get out of their own way, committing terrible turnovers that allowed the Rams to prevail. Detroit will be hoping for a repeat of that after taking advantage of Seattle’s struggles in the near-victory.

However, given that the Cardinals were so careless with the football, it’s hard to imagine them having a repeat performance. I have to believe they’ll be much cleaner in this contest, and they definitely won’t have to deal with a crazy pass rush like they did versus St. Louis. Detroit got to Russell Wilson quite a bit Monday night, but Palmer has been protected well for the most part this season.

It doesn’t help the Lions that they have numerous injuries. They lost Haloti Ngata, Tyrunn Walker and Darius Slay on Monday night, so it remains to be seen if they’ll be able to suit up. DeAndre Levy will return, but his presence can’t compensate for all of the other injuries.

RECAP: What the Lions went through Monday night reminds me of the Fail Mary play, for obvious reasons. Thus, I went back and looked at how the Packers fared following that game. As it turns out, Green Bay won the following week, but failed to cover as huge favorites versus the Saints at home. Of course, Green Bay was much better than this 0-4 Detroit squad.

The Lions are a bad team, and I could see them having trouble rebounding from a potentially undeserved loss (they still had to punch the ball into the end zone, of course.) Meanwhile, the Cardinals will bounce back, as Bruce Arians is one of the top coaches in the NFL. Arians is 25-11 against the spread overall, so I think this is a nice bounce-back game for his team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Not only has this spread moved up from -2.5 to -3, the juice has risen as well. Both the public and sharps are betting the Cardinals. The books set way too low of a line.

SUNDAY NOTES: Wow. I didn’t see this coming. The spread has soared past -3 and is now -4. I briefly considered dropping the unit count, but then I thought about it: Vegas clearly doesn’t believe that this will be a field-goal game; otherwise, they wouldn’t have moved this spread above -3 because they’d get killed with a middle. Thus, it’s likely that the Cardinals will cover.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Lions are desperate to avoid 0-4, but I don’t know how they’ll react to Batted Ball-gate.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Why wouldn’t the public bet the Cardinals?

Percentage of money on Arizona: 83% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Bruce Arians is 25-11 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Cardinals 23, Lions 13
Cardinals -4 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 42, Lions 17

New England Patriots (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Line: Patriots by 8. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -8.
Sunday, Oct 11, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 8! Episode 4 is posted. Emmitt saves Jay Cutler with the help of an old friend.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The good news for the Cowboys is that they’ll have Rolando McClain and Greg Hardy back from suspensions this week. Both will obviously provide a huge boost. Hardy is a tremendous pass-rusher, while McClain will be a major factor in terms of helping to stop the run. Both are needed on the field in the wake of the latest barrage of injuries. Sean Lee has enjoyed a terrific season, but he was lost last week because of a concussion. He was needed on the field when Drew Brees caught fire at the end of the game, and despite the return of Hardy and McClain, Dallas will have to get him back in this contest.

That’s because the bad news for the Cowboys is that they’ll be going up against a red-hot and pissed-off Tom Brady, who seems determined to prove to everyone that he did not cheat, despite the fact that he destroyed evidence and failed to cooperate with the NFL’s investigation. Running up the score against lesser opponents will surely vindicate him, so Brady will take it out on the Cowboys, who were pretty leaky against the Saints. Again, Hardy and McClain will help, but I don’t know if they’ll be enough to cover up all of the defense’s warts.

Of course, Brady can just hand the ball off to Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount, and both figure to have success. McClain will definitely improve Dallas’ run defense, but I think the unit could be too concerned about defending Brady and Rob Gronkowski to be completely focused on the run. We saw it against Jacksonville – the Jaguars are solid in terms of stopping the rush, but they were just too concerned about Brady and Gronkowski to even worry about Lewis and Blount.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo and Dez Bryant would give the Cowboys a chance to pull the upset, but they’re both injured. Bryant could be back following the team’s Week 6 bye, but that doesn’t exactly help Dallas in this particular matchup. Instead, it’ll be Brandon Weeden and Terrance Williams. Yeah, I don’t think Bill Belichick is worried at all.

This Patriot defense is not the same, dominant one that helped win the Super Bowl. It lost multiple talented players, so there are some holes in the stop unit. However, Weeden and Williams are not the guys who will be able to exploit those liabilities. Weeden could have some success moving the chains, but I imagine that Belichick will have some complex schemes to confuse the geriatric quarterback, who will undoubtedly force some turnovers.

The Cowboys will need Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden to provide a steady rushing attack in order to prevent that from happening. The problem is that while New England isn’t good versus the run (28th in terms of YPC), the team could be way behind as early as the second quarter, which would force the Cowboys to abandon a rushing attack that would otherwise work extremely well in a close game.

RECAP: I like the Cowboys as an underdog. Teams getting points in Dallas games are 56-26 against the spread since 2010. That’s ridiculously good.

Having said that, I’m picking the Patriots. Big road favorites have been terrific historically against the spread, and giving Belichick two weeks to prepare for Weeden just seems unfair. Besides, New England seems determined to run up the score on everyone, so I don’t see a back-door cover happening.

I’m not betting this game, however. There is WAY too much action on the Patriots. Vegas is going to lose a crap ton of money on this contest. Even if New England doesn’t cover, lots of teasers will hit. I’d recommend staying away, as shenanigans can happen, but if not, New England will run away with this one.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Vegas is going to lose a ton of money if the Patriots cover. And it’s not the normal big loss. This will cause some people to get fired. Keep that in mind if you plan on betting New England. I wouldn’t take the Cowboys either, but this is a dangerous game.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread moving up has to be a concern for me if I were betting the Patriots. Vegas stands to lose a ton of money if New England covers, yet it’s not concerned at all about that possibility. Perhaps they recognize that the Patriots are overrated after beating a team that couldn’t line up defensively; a team that killed itself with penalties; and a team that happens to be horrible. If New England weren’t coming off a bye, I’d be on Dallas.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

No one – and I mean, NO ONE – is betting on Dallas.

Percentage of money on New England: 95% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Patriots are 18-10 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 178-59 as a starter (135-97 ATS).

Tom Brady is 12-5 ATS in domes.

Cowboys are 25-12 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

The underdog is 56-26 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Patriots -7.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Dome.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Patriots 48, Cowboys 24
Patriots -8 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 30, Cowboys 6

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Oakland Raiders (2-2)
Line: Broncos by 5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -3.
Sunday, Oct 11, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is all about the Pope’s visit to Philadelphia.

DENVER OFFENSE: What the Broncos’ defense is doing this season is pretty amazing; they’re completely carrying the team despite Peyton Manning’s ineptitude. Manning has been pretty poor by his standards through four games. While this still puts him on an Alex Smith-type level, he’s no longer the same lethal quarterback who was capable of ringing up 40 points on any defense week in and week out.

Manning might have some success here, however, as the Oakland defense struggled to do anything against Jay Cutler this past Sunday. Then again, Manning will throw a bunch of wobblers that are dying to get intercepted. The Vikings picked off two last week, so I bet that Charles Woodson will at least come close to one take-away in this contest.

The Broncos will have to run the ball well to move the chains consistently, but they’ve struggled to do so thus far, save for Ronnie Hillman’s long touchdown against Minnesota. Oakland is pretty average when it comes to stopping the rush, so it’s unlikely that Denver will be able to blast open big holes this week like the team was able to in the past against previous hapless Raider squads.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: While the Raider defense not being terrible is one sign that this team has improved, another is the Derek Carr-Amari Cooper combination. The two have thrived since their rocky opener, though this contest could remind them of the first game of the season versus Cincinnati. Denver has one of the top defenses in the NFL, so it will definitely limit the Raider scoring attack.

The Broncos pretty much do everything well, ranking in the top 10 in most categories. Their best aspect, understandably, is their pass rush, led by Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. They’re tied for the league lead in sacks, so Oakland’s offensive line will have to step up to keep Carr shielded. Aside from one of the guard spots, however, the Raider blocking unit has performed well this season, surrendering just seven sacks through four contests. I imagine Denver will get to Carr on a couple of occasions, but it won’t be a total domination like the Minnesota contest. Unfortunately for Carr, he’s still not out of the woods because Denver’s terrific secondary is third versus the pass in terms of YPA.

I’m sure the Raiders would love to establish Latavius Murray, who was benched last week after a couple of screw-ups. Murray, however, doesn’t have the best matchup this week, as he’ll be going up against a stalwart Denver front ranked eighth in terms of YPC. The Broncos surrendered a 48-yard touchdown on the ground last week, but pretty much bottled up Adrian Peterson otherwise.

RECAP: How good are the Broncos, exactly? They would’ve lost to the 1-3 Ravens had Steve Smith caught a touchdown at the very end. They needed Jamaal Charles to fumble in Week 2. They led the winless Lions just 14-12 entering the fourth quarter despite knowing all of their plays. And they barely beat the Vikings at home this past Sunday.

It’s safe to say the Broncos are overrated. The Raiders, however, see Denver as their biggest rival. They’d love to knock off Denver, so this is their Super Bowl. They’ll be throwing the kitchen sink at the Broncos.

I like Oakland a lot. The only thing that concerns me here is that like the Bills versus the Patriots in Week 2, the Raiders could be “too” up for this game. Then again, Denver is definitely far worse than New England right now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Raiders. This is the home dog that’s most likely to cover of the three in the late afternoon games.

SUNDAY NOTES: The professional bettors pounded this spread down to +4, but it’s still +5 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

This is a big game for the Raiders, while the Broncos just enjoyed a last-second win.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Tons of money is predictably on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 76% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Road Team has won 10 of the last 14 meetings (Broncos last 7).

John Fox is 9-3 ATS on the West Coast.

Peyton Manning is 45-28 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Raiders are 18-30 ATS in October since 2001.

Jack Del Rio is 7-2 ATS as a divisional dog of 7+. ???

Opening Line: Broncos -5.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Broncos 17, Raiders 16
Raiders +5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 16, Raiders 10

San Francisco 49ers (1-3) at New York Giants (2-2)
Line: Giants by 8. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Giants -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -6.
Sunday, Oct 11, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Giants.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Unfortunately, I’ve only been able to post as Mario. I tried to troll as Vivian and Kevin, but I kept getting the following error:

I Googled that error, and I came across several Facebook help pages where people – real ones; not trollers – were complaining about the same issue. Unfortunately, none of them had a solution; once they were blocked, they were blocked for good.

Here’s an example of the complaints:

I pretty much agree with all of that. There’s nothing worse than idealistic douche bags in a position of power. The good news is that I was able to successfully troll as Mario.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning might be good for one goofy play per game, but he has performed well for the mos part after a mixed outing in the opener. In the past three games, he has compiled seven touchdowns compared to just one interception. The Falcons and Redskins didn’t provide much of a challenge in terms of their pass defense, but moving the chains on Buffalo’s stout defense was quite impressive, even with the Bills clearly in a flat spot off the Miami victory.

Manning won’t have much of a problem here either. The 49ers lost tons of key personnel this offseason, so it’s no wonder that they can’t stop the pass. Their secondary stinks, so I don’t know how they’ll deal with Odell Beckham Jr. and the other New York receivers. Their pass rush is a bit of an enigma though. I didn’t have much respect for it, but the defense did put lots of pressure on Aaron Rodgers, so perhaps San Francisco will be able to generate a decent amount of heat on Manning.

The 49ers don’t stop the run well either. They’ve allowed 4.37 YPC in their previous three games. Fortunately for them, Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams don’t exactly pose a great challenge. The Giants’ ground attack has sputtered this year, and I don’t think it’s a lock that it’ll begin working, even in this matchup.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I found it ironic that Clay Matthews was yelling at Colin Kaepernick that he’s not Russell Wilson, when Kaepernick spent the entire offseason talking about how he wants to be himself. I imagine that in some sort of self-absorbed way, he took Matthews’ taunts as flattery. If Kaepernick didn’t spend all day staring at himself in the mirror while kissing his biceps, he’d send a thank-you card to Matthews.

Kaepernick does suck though. He hasn’t taken to coaching, and his footwork and mechanics have suffered as a consequence. That’s why he’s good for tons of interceptions and incompletions each game. His offensive line hasn’t done him any favors either, but at least he’ll be going up against a defense that is tied with the second-fewest sacks in the NFL this season (5).

The 49ers will attempt to establish Carlos Hyde, but that may not work so well. Hyde hasn’t been able to run much recently because the team has been way behind, but he’ll be ineffective for a different reason this time. The Giants, after all, rank first in terms of YPC surrendered to opposing backs. Granted, they haven’t really been tested yet, but containing a player behind a poor offensive line doesn’t sound like a daunting challenge.

RECAP: Despite the Giants knocking off the Bills, and the 49ers struggling since winning in Week 1, I think this spread is too high. Like all of the other NFC East teams, New York doesn’t deserve a full three points. The team has struggled to cover as hosts, so one point is more appropriate. With that in mind, my calculated number is -6.

That’s not much of an edge, but there’s more going for the 49ers. For instance, New York has battles against the Eagles and Cowboys after this, so it could be looking ahead. There is also a ton of money coming in on the Giants, and you better believe they’ll be heavily wagered on in an obvious chase game. With Vegas set to lose countless funds in the New England-Dallas contest, some fishy stuff might happen in this matchup.

I’m taking the 49ers for three units. They played hard versus the Packers, and I think that’ll carry over to this contest. I don’t think the Giants will match their intensity level.

UNIT UPDATE: I’m trying to decrease the amount of times I change unit selections late in the week, since that has burned me a lot. However, I want to make an exception here. I think the 49ers are a contrarian/shrap bet this week. They could cover, but I don’t want to bet much on it. Matvei reminded me that while I correctly diagnosed how awful the Jets last year, I made the mistake of betting on them in “good spots.” The 49ers are in a good spot, but they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. I don’t think they warrant a high selection in this new-CBA era where the worst teams are worse.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If the 49ers don’t cover this spread, some of the smaller/squarer sportsbooks in Vegas will either have to close down or obtain a huge loan because this is one of the worst Sundays ever. All of the square sides covered today, save for the Falcons, but even that hurt because all Atlanta teaser bets hit. That could cause some shenanigans to happen in this contest, but I’m not going above one unit even though Pinnacle is telegraphing San Francisco with a -7.5 +100 line. Bovada is listing +8.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

It’s very reasonable to expect the Giants to be flat. They have the rival Eagles and Cowboys after this game against the pathetic-looking 49ers.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Who wants to bet on San Francisco right now?

Percentage of money on New York: 76% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Giants are 20-28 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 48 instances.

Opening Line: Giants -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Giants 20, 49ers 19
49ers +8 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 30, 49ers 27

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at San Diego Chargers (2-2)
Line: Chargers by 4. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chargers -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -5.5.
Monday, Oct 12, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of California, home of the San Diego Chargers. Tonight, the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Steelers. Guys, I’m happy that Pittsburgh’s quarterback right now is our former guy. He used to be the quarterback of my Philadelphia Eagles and he gave us some memorable wins. In fact, we were so good that one year, we should’ve won the Super Bowl, but the Packers deflated footballs and cheated. Mike Vick is my hero and I still have posters of him in my room. Do you guys think he’s one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the NFL???

Emmitt: Mike, or… uhh… Josh, I think you making an outlanderish statement by sayin’ Michael Visk is one of the top 10 most bestest quarterback in the National League. He not very accuracy and he no longer have the same athletic that he once have had have had. And he also a bad guy because he committed suicide against dog.

Herm: HOW DARE YOU SAY ANYTHING BAD ABOUT VICK!? HOW COULD YOU SAY ANYTHING BAD ABOUT VICK!? WHY WOULD YOU SAY ANYTHING BAD ABOUT VICK!? WHAT LED YOU TO SAY ANYTHING BAD ABOUT VICK!? VICK IS A CHANGED MAN! HE CHANGED! HE’S DIFFERENT! HE’S NOT THE SAME! NOT THE SAME PERSON! NOT THE SAME INDIVIDUAL! NOT THE SAME HUMAN! NOT THE SAME ENTITY! MUCH DIFFERENT! NOTHING ALIKE! NOTHING EVEN CLOSE! HE’S NOT A GREAT MAN! AN OUTSTANDING MAN! A TERRIFIC MAN! A MAN TO LOOK UP TO! A MAN TO MODEL YOURSELF AFTER! A MALE MODEL! NOT A FEMALE MODEL! A MALE MODEL! NOT THE FEMALE SEX! THE MALE SEX! WHY’S HERM TALKING ABOUT SEX!? WHY’S HERM TALKING ABOUT INTERCOURSE!? WHY’D HERM GET ON THIS TOPIC!? HOW’D HERM GET ON THIS TOPIC!? HERM…uhh…

Millen: Did someone say male models? I have five of them waiting for me in my hotel room, all armed with various kielbasas. It’s going to be a great night. But back to Vick, he’s a great human being. I’d say he’s 105-percent USDA Man.

Reilly: Yeah, Emmitt, what’s wrong with you? How can you criticize such a great human being? I usually hate being on the same side as that idiot Herm and that sicko Millen, but you’re wrong! Vick is great!

Phil Simms: Michael Vick is a changed man because he spent a year in prison.

Millen: Speaking of being in prison, I wouldn’t mind taking a trip there just to drop some soap in the shower!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by soap! Soap is something you wash your hands with to wipe the bacteria away. And bacteria is bad because it can make you sick. Viruses can make you sick as well. But not a computer virus. There’s no way a computer virus can go inside you, unless you’re some sort of bionic person and can attach one of your limbs to a computer. If you catch a computer virus, stop what you’re doing and go see a doctor. And tell him you’re a fan of Vick because he’s a great human being.

Tollefson: Yes, Vick is a great human being. I tell women all the time that I know Vick, and then they come back to my apartment and cook and clean naked for me, which is something they should always be doing.

Wolfley: MICHAEL VICK IS A GREAT HUMAN BEING. YOU KNOW WHO ELSE IS A GREAT HUMAN BEING? ABRAHAM LINCOLN. I SAW ABRAHAM LINCOLN AT THE BUS STOP THE OTHER DAY EATING A BANANA WITH RAISINS ON IT. HE WAS HOLDING A PAINT BRUSH. HE’S ALMOST AS GREAT AS VICK.

Charles Davis: Emmitt, it’s not like you to call a great human being a bad guy, Emmitt. You know that Vick is a great human being, right, Emmitt? Let’s think of some other words that mean the same as “great,” Emmitt. How about terrific, Emmitt? What about fantastic, Emmitt? And then there’s awesome, Emmitt. If you’re a surfer, Emmitt, you might say gnarly, Emmitt. What about outstanding, Emmitt? How about prolific, Emmitt? All of these words describe Vick, Emmitt. Because he’s a great human being, Emmitt.

Emmitt: You guys are crazy, he commit so much suicide against dog! He even drown dog in a fire and electrocute dog with lightning!

Reilly: Oh, Emmitt, when will you learn? This is 2015, Emmitt. Come into 2015 with us, where Vick is a human being and Caitlyn Jenner is a hero. We’ll be back after this!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I apologize for using QBDK’s real name in that announcing skit, but I had to in order to get my point across. It’s that for some strange reason, many of the announcers on TV slurp QBDK inexplicably. It ranges from personal – Phil Simms, as you read, actually said that QBDK is a “changed man” after one year in prison – to delusional in terms of football ability. Deion Sanders was the worst offender, proclaiming that we would see the same QBDK that we watched play for Atlanta and Philadelphia. Simms also told us that this is the best cast QBDK has ever been surrounded by, completely ignoring the year he had DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek at his disposal. Matvei said it best on the podcast. After he’s done playing, QBDK should start a cult because people love him for no good reason.

For those of us who are not in some weird trance, we know that QBDK sucks. He’s inaccurate, but that’s the least of his issues. He takes bad sacks and fails to read defenses. He’s also a turnover machine. The Steelers played it conservatively with QBDK on Thursday night, and rightfully so – letting him loose would’ve resulted in countless interceptions and fumbles. They may make the mistake of giving him too much leeway here, which could be disastrous.

What the Steelers should do is focus on their running game. Le’Veon Bell has been dominant in his two games back, and he’ll continue to thrive against the Chargers, who have the league’s worst run defense in terms of YPC.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: My four-unit selection on the Browns was correct last week, but I was right for the wrong reasons. I thought the Chargers would have trouble scoring because of their three missing offensive linemen, and while that looked to be the case early on, Philip Rivers got into a rhythm and eventually posted 30 points. Granted, it was a bit easier for him to do that once Tashaun Gipson joined Joe Haden as talented, but injured Cleveland defensive backs, but I was still shocked nonetheless.

It sounds as though Rivers will get at least one of his blockers back. It’s not clear which one yet, but the team cut Michael Ola on Monday, a reserve who was needed for depth purposes. Rivers’ line play will improve as a result, so that’ll give him a better chance to torch Pittsburgh’s secondary. The Steeler defensive backfield has its issues, though it has been better in recent weeks, albeit against inferior quarterbacks and/or receivers. Beating up on Colin Kaepernick and Nick Foles wasn’t much of an issue, while Joe Flacco neither had the protection nor the weapons to succeed. I expect Rivers to have a good game as long as he’s missing two or fewer blockers.

Someone who will struggle is Melvin Gordon. Hungry for his first touchdown, Gordon will be battling a defense that didn’t allow more than 80 rushing yards to its first three opponents. Pittsburgh’s stop unit was leaky on the ground last Thursday, but Ryan Shazier was out. If Shazier returns, Gordon won’t have much success.

RECAP: The Chargers seem like a strong play to me for several reasons:

1. Any opportunity to bet against QBDK is a great one. He’s just 4-17 against the spread since 2012. As written earlier, he’s a turnover machine who takes bad sacks and can’t read defenses. He sucks at both life and football.

2. I don’t agree with this spread. The advance line from a week ago was -6.5, which made more sense. I personally have it at -5.5. Chargers at -3.5 (or -3 -120) is perplexing. Are the Chargers about even with the Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger? No way. I know San Diego barely beat Cleveland last week, but the team was missing three starting offensive linemen. At least one will be back.

3. I have to give Circadian rhythms a shout out. NPR’s research says that West Coast teams hosting East Coast opponents at night cover about 65 percent of the time. It’s real.

I’m going with three units on San Diego. I considered four, but I don’t like the homefield advantage here. I bet there will be more Steeler fans in the stands than Charger backers, but there are still many more reasons to like the host.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: I’d lock this in now. The spread has risen to -4 in most places, and it’s even -4.5 at some books. It appears as though the professional bettors are taking San Diego.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has been stuck on -4. The sharps bet up San Diego from -3 and -3.5, but haven’t been as excited at this current number. I thought about moving to four units, but A) I vowed not to change my unit counts going forward, and B) I want to be assured of a winning week. It’s worth noting that Pinnacle has this listed at +4 +100, meaning they want money on Pittsburgh.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 51% (70,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

QBDK is 4-17 ATS since 2012.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Chargers 34, Steelers 24
Chargers -4 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 24, Chargers 20

Week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games
Indianapolis at Houston, Chicago at Kansas City, Seattle at Cincinnati, Washington at Atlanta, Jacksonville at Tampa Bay, New Orleans at Philadelphia, Cleveland at Baltimore, St. Louis at Green Bay, Buffalo at Tennessee

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline: Patriots -420 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50

Moneyline: Saints +220 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16

NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22

Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19

NFL Picks - Feb. 12

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2023): -$15

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-38-3, 53.1% (+$520)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 28-27-1, 50.9% (-$3,110)
2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,630

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

NBA Picks Against the Spread

2024 NFL Draft Goals

2024 NFL Draft Potential Busts

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

2024 NFL Mock Draft

2024 NFL Draft Day 3 Sleepers

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2015

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