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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 5-6-1 (-$420)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Buffalo Bills (0-3) at Detroit Lions (1-2)
Line: Lions by 3.

Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

As I discussed last week, Chan Gailey doesn't care about winning preseason games. Jim Schwartz does, so he may want to finish strong with a victory after losing at Oakland this past weekend.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-8 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 0-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 11-4 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 26, Bills 13
    Lions -3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300






    Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)
    Line: Packers by 1.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike McCarthy doesn't give a damn about Week 4 preseason games. I'm not sure if Romeo Crennel does, but he may want to end the exhibition on a high note after getting blown out against Seattle.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Romeo Crennel is 9-10 in preseason games.
  • Romeo Crennel is 2-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 13-14 in preseason games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 1-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 17, Packers 10
    Chiefs +1 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New York Jets (0-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
    Line: Eagles by 5.5.

    Thursday, 6:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I cannot believe the Eagles are favored by this much. Andy Reid completely mails in the last preseason game every year, so there's no reason the spread should be this high. Rex Ryan, meanwhile, will want his team to get into the end zone. This is my August NFL Pick of the Month because this line is so ridiculous.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-9 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Andy Reid is 24-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 3-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +5.5 (7 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$770







    Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
    Line: Steelers by 3.5.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin is insane and loves to win these meaningless preseason games. Ron Rivera doesn't seem to care one way or the other. I wish this spread weren't larger than a field goal, but Pittsburgh is still worth a moderately sized wager; Tomlin has won all five of his Week 4 preseason games by 16, 16, 11, 3 and 16 ponts, so odds say that he's going to cover.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Ron Rivera is 3-4 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 18-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 5-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 19, Panthers 6
    Steelers -3.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330



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    GURUBALL 09-29-2012 11:54 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.33 (total posts: 261)
    23     5

    PLAY OF THE DAY

    (IOWA UNDER 47) 15 UNITS
    (NORTHWESTERN -11.5) 10 UNITS
    (PENN ST UNDER 41.5) 7 UNITS

    GLTA!
    Jmac 09-29-2012 10:58 am xxx.xxx.xxx.250 (total posts: 229)
    10     6

    Georgia tech over 62
    Redemption time
    chuckster 09-29-2012 09:03 am xxx.xxx.xxx.175 (total posts: 48)
    7     7

    Three team 10 point teaser with Ravens -2 (winner), Patriots +6 and Texans -2. If those one o'clock games come through then will explore four o'clock games and maybe even the evening contests. Congrats to all winners and continued good luck to everyone.
    freefootballguru 09-29-2012 08:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx.181 (total posts: 6)
    9     8

    @ziffle

    A couple of possible NCAA upsets today

    Missouri @ Central Florida

    Mizzu been playing tough competition and has the talent to pull the minor upset.

    Clemson @ Boston College

    Clemson could be flat after tough loss to FSU. Sammy Watkins not playing, fishy reverse line movement. Could be an upset brewing.
    koon 09-29-2012 03:01 am xxx.xxx.xxx.202 (total posts: 1)
    10     7

    Just some of my opinions on a couple games.

    I think houston will easily cover by 2 touchdowns. Walter has said he thinks the titans have cleaned things up; that is partially true but lets not forget almost all their points came off of big plays last week. I think the sample size is to small to start calling them underrated. Against a solid secondary with a dline that can put pressure on the qb they will struggle. Im not going to bet the spread because that is a large one but will include them in my teaser.

    The second part of my teaser will consist of the 49rs. I am a strong believer to bet on strong teams following a loss. The niners will be geared up as everyone is doubting them again and we all know they play best when they are doubted. In addition sanchez is going to struggle big time so if Smith doesn't get it going the 49rs d will turn turnovers into points.

    Big play houston,niners 6 point teaser
    Kyle 09-29-2012 12:08 am xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 245)
    5     6

    Starting QB...who the hell needs one? Apparently NOT BYU to cover easily over Hawaii.
    Dear Walt 09-28-2012 10:24 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.47 (total posts: 6)
    10     7

    I'm not sure where you got the trend about a quarterback who hasn't thrown an interception in two consecutive victories is 0-18 ATS the spread in September, but I did some research and that trend is incorrect. Matt Schaub won his first two games this year without throwing an interception, yet STILL covered the spread against the Broncos last week. Trend busted.
    ziffle60 09-28-2012 09:36 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.144 (total posts: 2)
    5     7

    YO DOGS ANY UPSETS FOR TOMORROW COLLEGE GAMES FROM UP IN TORONTO CANADA AVID FOLLOWER
    Nero 09-28-2012 08:38 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.122 (total posts: 1)
    10     126

    New England -3.5
    My strongest play this week. Brady is going to take care of the ball, Fitzgerald is not. New England will win confortably.
    28-17

    Atlanta -7.5
    The Falcons have been feasting off turnovers. Cam will oblige. The Falcons are going to score plenty.
    38-24

    Houston -12
    The Texans have had their way with mediocre competition. In comes Tennessee who are a notch below mediocre. The Titans win over Detroit was quite fluky. Detroit was the better team by far, but too error prone. The Titans will not be so lucky against the Texans.
    40-10

    Jacksonville +3
    The Jags should have no shame in losing to the underrated Vikings on the road and to the Texans. The were able to squeak by in a road win at Indy. Now they face a very simalarly talented Bengal team at their place. The Jags should be favored. Jones-Drew has a big day. Jags win.
    17-13
    byu qb not playing 09-28-2012 07:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.171 (total posts: 5)
    7     7

    byu starting qb not playing
    sandman 09-28-2012 07:33 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.75 (total posts: 4)
    9     13

    my best picks

    ATL-7 ARI-5.5
    NE-3.5 GB-7.5
    SD-1 CIN-1.5





    born2gamble 09-28-2012 06:07 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.150 (total posts: 2)
    72     34

    Now we know why the chargers point spread is all over the place...they are going to win easily!....Enjoy thr free info

    Other ATS Top Play: San Diego +1 @ Kansas City (Covers 58.5%)

    In Norv we do or do not trust? Apparently, it depends on the situation. This is our fourth-straight "normal" opinion and third consecutive Paul's Pick involving the Chargers' game (we hit the Paul's Picks in each of the last two games by a combined 48.5 points). In each of San Diego's games thus far, we have literally alternated picking against and for them. This week, we like the Chargers' chances to go into Kansas City and win outright as underdogs.

    With a team this volatile, matchups mean almost everything. Against the elite teams, like Atlanta, San Diego will struggle mightily. Against the weaker teams, like Tennessee and Kansas City, San Diego can put up big numbers. Last season, against teams that went on to make the playoffs, the Chargers were 2-4 and lost by an average margin of 13 points. Against teams that did not make the playoffs last season, San Diego was 6-4 and won by an average margin of 13.8 points (including finishing the season with three straight wins against bad teams in which the Chargers scored at least 37 points and won by double-digits - kind of like what happened against Tennessee two weeks ago).

    Even after a win over New Orleans last week, Kansas City is not likely on its way to the playoffs (we only give the Chiefs a 14.2% chance of reaching the postseason). Moreover, Kansas City currently ranks 25th in our power rankings. The Chiefs, behind the breakout performance by Jamaal Charles last week, rank third in the league in offensive rush efficiency. They rank in the bottom five in every other category from our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics. With a rebuilt defense this season, the Chargers actually rank as a top five defensive team and are better against the run than the pass. Meanwhile, the Chargers offense should be as healthy as it has been all season when it heads to Kansas City and it should look it against a defense that has allowed 33 points-per-game through three games.
    born2gamble 09-28-2012 06:00 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.150 (total posts: 2)
    21     12

    Here you go boys....these "locks of the week are 3-0 so far this season....enjoy!

    ATS Lock of the Week: Cincinnati -2 @ Jacksonville (Covers 59.4%)

    We had to know this was coming. With the obvious publicity and attention paid to the replacement referee situation and the, likely related, strong recent performances of home underdogs (which are 10-3 straight-up in the last two weeks), it's not a surprise to see what appears to be an over-correction by the market and a lot of value in road teams against short lines.

    In the strongest play, Cincinnati happens to actually be favored in this game, yet should win more comfortably than just the two point line would suggest. This situation looks very similar to one of the strongest NFL plays that we have ever had on the site when the Bengals traveled to Carolina in Week 3 of 2010 as less than three point favorites against one of the weakest teams in the league. Mike Zimmer's defense dominated the game over Jimmy Clausen and the Panthers in a 20-7 victory. Zimmer and his new, young, incredibly deep and athletic defense (especially on the line where Carlos Dunlap's health appeared to make the difference in last week's game in Washington) will look to do something similar against another young, unproven quarterback in Jacksonville.

    Coming off of two straight wins, Cincinnati ranks 14th in our most recent NFL Power Rankings. Cincinnati has an above average offense and defense and is actually in line for another playoff performance if our most likely postseason scenario holds. For the Bengals to make a run at the postseason, this is the kind of game that Cincinnati will all but have to win.

    Jacksonville scored a last minute victory over Indianapolis to avoid falling to 0-3 last week. Still, the Jaguars rank just 30th in our power rankings (the only team from last week's bottom four that is still in this week's bottom four) and have the third-worst overall offense to go with a below average defense against the run and the pass. In their previous home game, Jacksonville hosted Houston, its only game thus far against a team we projected to win six or more games before the season, and lost 27-7.

    With the situation the way it is right now, it's okay to pick for the elite teams on the road or against the very bad teams at home. It's everything in between where home field advantage is winning out. This is not one of those games in between. Jacksonville is very bad (especially at home) and Cincinnati is at least heading in the direction of elite (while the ETA for the Bengals as an elite team is probably 2013, the talent level is there right now and it is much greater than the Jaguars).
    Joe 09-28-2012 05:22 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.33 (total posts: 48)
    10     7

    What a hectic week in the NFL, after the Monday debacle I was going to quit betting until we get the Refs back. I planned to boycott watching games and going to NFL.com, but the league won't even let me do that. I am off to a horrendous start and I can blame the refs all I want. I am sitting at the miserable record of 5-10. Thats an incredible 33% and I probably couldn't do that bad if I tried. I lost a definite 3 if not 5 plays this year off of shady calls and phantom penalties ect. That being said I am glad as hell that we have our Refs back. I'm even more excited to start yelling at these refs for crappy calls. I have been doing this for a long time and I know that the averages will even out. We all get cold streaks and all get hot streaks. Its the life of a handicapper. A good friend of mine (guru66) says it best. It's a marathon not a sprint. We have 17 weeks to be at 55% to 60%.

    @Guru -
    I had a nasty week also and it happens. I love how everyone says you have this ego. Hahahaha. You made more money for everyone through the year than these new guys even realize. I know alot of cappers and I appreciate all the work you do. Imagine a world where you actually go 80% a week. That would be nice. Keep up the great analysis and lets get something good together by Sunday. I'm overdue for a solid week and you have this crazy tendency to bounce back whenever you don't hit 50%.

    BHPicks 09-28-2012 05:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.82 (total posts: 193)
    7     155

    FREE PICK:

    Rays -115

    To read the analysis for this pick go to:
    www.BHPicks.com/freepicks.html

    PREMIUM PICKS:

    Yankees - Blue Jays
    Hawaii - BYU

    To purchase these picks go to:
    www.BHPicks.com/premiumpicks.html


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 23


    2014 NBA Mock Draft - April 23


    NFL Free Agents - April 22


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


    Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
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    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
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    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
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    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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