NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 5-6-1 (-$420)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Buffalo Bills (0-3) at Detroit Lions (1-2)
Line: Lions by 3.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

As I discussed last week, Chan Gailey doesn't care about winning preseason games. Jim Schwartz does, so he may want to finish strong with a victory after losing at Oakland this past weekend.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Chan Gailey is 3-8 in preseason games.

Chan Gailey is 0-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Jim Schwartz is 11-4 in preseason games.

Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 26, Bills 13
Lions -3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300

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Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)
Line: Packers by 1.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Mike McCarthy doesn't give a damn about Week 4 preseason games. I'm not sure if Romeo Crennel does, but he may want to end the exhibition on a high note after getting blown out against Seattle.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Romeo Crennel is 9-10 in preseason games.

Romeo Crennel is 2-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Mike McCarthy is 13-14 in preseason games.

Mike McCarthy is 1-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 17, Packers 10
Chiefs +1 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220

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New York Jets (0-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
Line: Eagles by 5.5.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I cannot believe the Eagles are favored by this much. Andy Reid completely mails in the last preseason game every year, so there's no reason the spread should be this high. Rex Ryan, meanwhile, will want his team to get into the end zone. This is my August NFL Pick of the Month because this line is so ridiculous.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Rex Ryan is 6-9 in preseason games.

Rex Ryan is 2-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Andy Reid is 24-31 in preseason games.

Andy Reid is 3-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
Jets +5.5 (7 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$770

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Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
Line: Steelers by 3.5.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Mike Tomlin is insane and loves to win these meaningless preseason games. Ron Rivera doesn't seem to care one way or the other. I wish this spread weren't larger than a field goal, but Pittsburgh is still worth a moderately sized wager; Tomlin has won all five of his Week 4 preseason games by 16, 16, 11, 3 and 16 ponts, so odds say that he's going to cover.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Ron Rivera is 3-4 in preseason games.

Ron Rivera is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Mike Tomlin is 18-6 in preseason games.

Mike Tomlin is 5-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 19, Panthers 6
Steelers -3.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330

Leave a comment Name Comment Verification: click on image to refresh it   big ryan 10-30-2011 07:27 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 2) 17     11 walt is putrid and so am i......i can't pick a game...Giants are an embarrassment, Ravens out to play with dresses on , and No just gave up since the game was fixed...Pitt who wins nail bitter over indy just killed the pats??? the Nfl is f)%^&ng ridiculous. if your making $ right now you are guessing and lucky as S#&T. there is no way anyone understands this if they are paying attention. The more you watch the less you know. Chavs 10-30-2011 07:26 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.246 (total posts: 1) 29     11 And I thought I had bad days. I've never seen anyone do that bad on a Sunday. Funny thing is I myself like the 'Boys tonight! They should be able to run well and pass dink and dunk all night and win this one straight up. They should be able to contain Vick, maybe force him into bad throws. Tough call either way tonight. MAKIN THAT $$$$$ 10-30-2011 07:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.13 (total posts: 2) 28     10 IF YOUR NOT FADING WALT BY NOW YOUR A FOOL!!! THIS GUY IS AWFUL! KEEP FADING WALT THE REST OF THE YEAR AND WE GONNA KEEP MAKIN THAT $$$$$$$ @McLovin 10-30-2011 07:24 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.75 (total posts: 22) 17     13 Walt didn't lose them all. He got the 49ers-Browns game right, thanks to a bull**** front-door cover McLovin 10-30-2011 07:24 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.24 (total posts: 36) 37     11 Correction: I missed the 49ers game. 49ers -9 (3 Units) So he's 1-9 instead on unit selections, and is DOWN about 16 units instead! What is everyone going to buy with their 32 unit surplus from today!? McLovin 10-30-2011 07:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.24 (total posts: 36) 35     13 It looks like Walt is going to lose every 4 pm game that he bet on. Roughly -10 units from 1pm games and now about -9 units from 4 pm games. He's 0-8 for unit selections AND DOWN -19 units. WTG Walt. Congrats to everyone who is fading him and doubling units. You can buy some nice stuff with your winnings now! Satan 10-30-2011 07:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 191) 16     13 I had Pitt today, and I'm by no means a Pats fan, but DAMN is their schedule BRUTAL! If you look at it, they haven't had a single easy game yet this year (and before you say Miami, that was Week 1, when every team feels like this is their year, and they were on the road in primetime), and it doesn't get any easier until Week 13 vs. Indy. Somebody look at their schedule... they've been pretty impressive. Don't make the "bad luck" excuse again 10-30-2011 07:16 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.75 (total posts: 22) 16     14 You would have had a winless day if it weren't for that bogus 49ers backdoor cover. THE U 10-30-2011 07:13 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.135 (total posts: 2) 12     10 @SATAN DO THE OVERS TONIGHT Satan 10-30-2011 07:11 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 191) 13     12 @Walt better not... actually, when the favorite gets it, it's called a "front door" cover... happened to me yesterday to ruin a nice 8:1 parlay I had going Go Browns!! 10-30-2011 07:10 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.43 (total posts: 20) 14     13 I want a winless day!! Satan 10-30-2011 07:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 191) 11     13 looks like San Fran will at least end up w/ a field goal here. Walt better not blame this on bad luck 10-30-2011 07:06 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.75 (total posts: 22) 16     11 It looks like the 49ers are going to get a backdoor cover. no winners here 10-30-2011 07:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.200 (total posts: 4) 14     12 I've never really seen anyone go 0-11. Walt has a chance to make history. Oliver Sudden 10-30-2011 07:01 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 2) 13     15 Right now Walt is 0 for 11. That's hard to do, it's like getting them all wrong on a true false test. His trends methods are invalid. If an honest coin was flipped 10 times and came up heads 7 times would you bet on heads the next flip ? In football bettors like to bet trends so the odds makers would have to make heads 4 to 5 and tails 6 to 5. I'll take tails at 6 to 5. Pages: 1 2 ...1143 1144 1145 11461147 1148 1149 ...1475 1476

2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 17


Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 16


2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 15


2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 3


NFL Picks - Feb. 3

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)