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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2012


NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 5-6-1 (-$420)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Buffalo Bills (0-3) at Detroit Lions (1-2)
Line: Lions by 3.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

As I discussed last week, Chan Gailey doesn't care about winning preseason games. Jim Schwartz does, so he may want to finish strong with a victory after losing at Oakland this past weekend.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-8 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 0-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 11-4 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 26, Bills 13
    Lions -3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300





    Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)
    Line: Packers by 1.
    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike McCarthy doesn't give a damn about Week 4 preseason games. I'm not sure if Romeo Crennel does, but he may want to end the exhibition on a high note after getting blown out against Seattle.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Romeo Crennel is 9-10 in preseason games.
  • Romeo Crennel is 2-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 13-14 in preseason games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 1-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 17, Packers 10
    Chiefs +1 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220






    New York Jets (0-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
    Line: Eagles by 5.5.
    Thursday, 6:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I cannot believe the Eagles are favored by this much. Andy Reid completely mails in the last preseason game every year, so there's no reason the spread should be this high. Rex Ryan, meanwhile, will want his team to get into the end zone. This is my August NFL Pick of the Month because this line is so ridiculous.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-9 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Andy Reid is 24-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 3-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +5.5 (7 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$770






    Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
    Line: Steelers by 3.5.
    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin is insane and loves to win these meaningless preseason games. Ron Rivera doesn't seem to care one way or the other. I wish this spread weren't larger than a field goal, but Pittsburgh is still worth a moderately sized wager; Tomlin has won all five of his Week 4 preseason games by 16, 16, 11, 3 and 16 ponts, so odds say that he's going to cover.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Ron Rivera is 3-4 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 18-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 5-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 19, Panthers 6
    Steelers -3.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330



    Leave a comment

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    Jay 12-23-2011 12:13 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.34 (total posts: 3)
    13     41


    Be sure to check out this weeks NFL key picks and Bowl Game Picks at www.gamblersdiaries.com

    NickMoney 12-23-2011 10:19 am xxx.xxx.xxx.131 (total posts: 4)
    24     15

    I have been riding Gator's picks and im greatly appreciative. I even varied my units according to him tier setup he had yesterday which worked to my advantage. Keep them coming gator!
    waltersucks 12-23-2011 04:39 am xxx.xxx.xxx6.26 (total posts: 77)
    13     16

    YO GuySmyly walter's goin 2 start betting the nose picking league
    pick a good 1 walter
    Waltersucks 12-23-2011 04:22 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.84 (total posts: 1)
    22     14

    Walter's Dolphins pick of the month is a joke
    The Dolphins ain't even the pick of the week
    Take the Patriots 34- Dolphins 21
    Yo walter I'll take them 7 units
    GuySmyly 12-23-2011 03:29 am xxx.xxx.xxx.217 (total posts: 28)
    131     85

    No offense Walt but your picks have kinda sucked this year....have you ever thought of maybe giving up on the NFL and start betting on the Lingerie Football League (LFL)??

    It might look something like this:


    Seattle Slvts (5-9) at Detroit Dykes (11-3)
    Line: Dykes by 9.5. Total: 48.
    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Dykes -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Dykes -9.
    Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 ET



    The Slvts early season scoring woes were rectified when they hired their new offensive coordinator. But quarterback Clarissa Cl1torus suffered a 4th quarter cameltoe sprain in her last game and it looks like she'll be out for the year. That means the Slvts will have to rely on running back Valerie Vvlva to carry the load. Vvlva is PMSing this week and the last time she had mad cow disease she gashed New York's defense for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns.



    But don't expect Vvlva to have a very good game against a Dykes' defense that loves to stuff the box. Middle linebacker Stacy Strapon leads the league in tackles so you can count on her to fill the hole.

    With my luck Strapon will miss a tackle and the Slvts will end with a tight backdoor cover. But no matter how big the spread is the Dykes always seem to lick it.


    Week 16 LFL Pick: Dykes 34, Slvts 17
    Dykes -9.5. (7 units LFL pick of the month}
    Over 48 (0 units)
    1234 12-23-2011 03:26 am xxx.xxx.xxx.217 (total posts: 28)
    14     11

    TEST
    Newbie 12-23-2011 01:32 am xxx.xxx.xxx.249 (total posts: 171)
    15     29

    @Legendary Dynamo: with the miss out of the way, the rest of your picks will hit right? I'm in and waiting to make the bets!
    MATGEE 12-23-2011 12:25 am xxx.xxx.xxx.227 (total posts: 3)
    49     11

    WOW, the referees have won just another game tonight, what a debacle
    b88 12-23-2011 12:17 am xxx.xxx.xxx.217 (total posts: 1)
    12     9

    @Tom. Packers overrated based on their previous games being unable to cover the spread, Walt wasnt implying their team, he is a capper.. Not sure about his Texans pick, short week visitor has been a solid play to bet against since Thur night football started, plus rookie QB, but that is hindsight.

    Only decent play for the weekend, CAR, public all over it as I believe they should. Bucs down and out, dont trust their coach, players complacent, Panthers with more to proove with a new coach and rookie QB playing for pride and their job..
    eaglesjavi 12-23-2011 12:07 am xxx.xxx.xxx.209 (total posts: 1)
    15     10

    @Gator
    Doing an unreal job at picking these games. All I can say is thanks and like Steve said keep 'em coming! I'm not even going to ask where you get all the info but it's clear you know what you're doing. One question after football season is over are you still going to be posting on here? Anyway keep it up and have a great Xmas that goes for everyone!
    Mike 12-22-2011 11:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.198 (total posts: 2)
    9     9

    Guruball killing us man!!!! 10 min late instead of early this time!!! Good luck*
    Steve 12-22-2011 11:27 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.100 (total posts: 1)
    16     11

    @Gator...another great night 5-2. Keep them coming, not sure if anyone else is riding the picks but I am and I appreciate the help.
    Guruball 12-22-2011 09:10 pm xxx.xxx.xxx39.5 (total posts: 1)
    9     142

    Plays of the day

    BOISE ST 15 units
    HOUSTON 25 units

    GLTA!
    #Guruball#49er
    Mike 12-22-2011 08:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.198 (total posts: 2)
    12     11

    I have following this site for almost five years. Walt is good at picking games although, he is having a bad year! Dynamo and Guruball have been making great picks but they usually post 10 min before game! Good Luck everyone cheers*
    jb29 12-22-2011 08:35 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.252 (total posts: 1)
    11     10

    @NYTony, nice copy and paste from predictem.com. I took the colts too though, so GL


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 24


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


    Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 20


    NFL Picks - Feb. 3




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2012): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,876-1,720-106, 52.2% (+$6,915)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 611-545-31 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 253-225-7 (52.9%)
    Career Over-Under: 1409-1408-42 (50.0%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 24-16 (60.0%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Season:
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