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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



    Leave a comment

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    Virgin X 11-12-2012 06:38 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.112 (total posts: 4)
    6     5

    Had a great weekend thanks to Walt!Glad you do what you do!Think Guru66 is just as good!!Really liked your write up and im with you on the Nation.I can see tonites total pushing just add to the already strange weekend.Tie game really!Gut feelin tells me Steelers lite it up!

    @leech really like Under on Phenix/den.GLTA!
    GURBALL 11-12-2012 06:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.145 (total posts: 2)
    15     7

    THIS GAME DOESN'T MEAN SHIIIT TO PITT. AFTER THIS GAME THEY HAVE 3 DIVISION GAMES . I KNOW THE CHIEFS ARE CRAP GARBAGE AND STR8 SORRY BUT AGAIN THIS IS THE NFL MNF GAME. COULD BE WRONG BUT IM UP FOR THE WEEK AND WIN OR LOSE IM UP...


    (KC +13) 25 UNITS

    GOIN 70 units or 20 units THIS WEEK. IT WAS A GREAT WEEKEND MONEY WISE NOT TO MENTION UP 45 FROM GAMBLING... USUALLY ID ONLY PUT 5-10 units on this play so don't go cray but
    Ima gambler hahahha to the bank either way!!

    GLTA!
    JETHRO 11-12-2012 06:30 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    3     4

    NBA:
    2 UNITS: CHICAGO -3
    DENVER -4.5
    DALLAS -7
    MN/DAL. OVER 191.5

    1 UNIT: MILW. +4
    ATL. +3
    MILW/PHIL UNDER 190.5
    OKC/DET UNDER 195
    ChoMp 11-12-2012 06:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.174 (total posts: 1)
    7     3

    Chicago bulls
    Utah jazz
    To the bank 11-12-2012 05:51 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.223 (total posts: 17)
    8     4

    I'd be concerned takin the steelers tonight as "easy money." Vegas slaughtered the public this weekend so you know everyone is gonna try and make up for their loses on tonight's game. don't be surprised with a 21-10 final and a narrow chiefs cover
    Pick leech 11-12-2012 05:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 40)
    3     8

    I think I'm gonna play a Steeler slaughter and the under (31-3).

    Any of you NBA experts have a game or 2 to recommend to help a degenerate gambler fill out a parlay? Any help would be appreciated and I won't hold it against you if you miss it.

    Good luck tonight.
    theguru66 11-12-2012 05:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 5)
    4     8

    @zebra

    Game is in Pittsburgh
    bfs 11-12-2012 05:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 2)
    4     6

    I understand Todd Haley maybe wanting to crush his former team. However, Romeo Crennel was Haley's Defensive Coordinator for a season and will more than likely know his tendencies also. I wouldn't put too much stock in it, seems like a wash to me.
    ZEBRA 11-12-2012 04:58 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.106 (total posts: 16)
    3     8

    Keep it up Walt.............love the 3/4 unit plays this season.

    Also pretty solid in NCAA

    Looking toward PIT and under play. Maybe UNDER KC total. In Yeras past it was a no brainer taking double digits in KC....such a solid home field advantage...NOT THIS SEASON though

    chuckster 11-12-2012 04:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    3     5

    Okay, three team 10 point teaser with Pittsburgh -2.5, two open spots. GLTA.
    chuckster 11-12-2012 04:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    4     5

    Got first two spots of my NBA 3 tm. eight point teaser last night. Filling third spot with OK City +1.5 tonight. Congrats to all winners and GLTA.
    Mark D 11-12-2012 04:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.64 (total posts: 1)
    17     5

    Low 40's and showers, could be a good night for the under
    theguru66 11-12-2012 04:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 5)
    127     90

    Good afternoon passengers, I have a few minutes so I'll just do this now before it gets busy. 34-27-3 and we're inching towards 10 over. Let's get to 8 tonight shall we?

    Let's start by saying that as you know, I'm a Steelers fan but believe it or not that helps me handicap them. I am gonna use that tonight as I feel this is a perfect spot for a Steelers blow out. Listen, the Steelers don't play blow out football but tonight I feel that one factor will play a huge factor. That factor is Todd Haley. He was fired by the Chiefs and has a team now that can do some major damage. Not to mention their playing well AND the love playing on Monday Night Football. He is gonna want to crush this team. The Chiefs offense is horrible and I don't see them scoring much. This will probably be a close game early but the Steelers should eventually pull away. This is how I see this game in a short perspective, if the Chiefs score first or lead for the first time all season they might cover but if the Steelers score early and often like 10-0 or 14-0 the Chiefs will go right to sleep. I think the latter is more likely to happen, 33-7 final.

    This line is currently down to 12 1/2, but even at 13 I like it. If you can get that half a point get it.

    Good Luck everyone, tickets please.
    DreDay 11-12-2012 03:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 1)
    5     7

    Heat Heat Heat play it
    GURUBALL 11-12-2012 03:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.147 (total posts: 6)
    13     6

    GOOD TO SEE FOLKS WINNING THIS WEEK!! CONGRATS ALL AND GOOD SHIIIT!! LOOKS LIKE IM BACK TO ABOUT 100 UNITS FOR THE YEAR. CAN'T COMPLAIN .. BRB WID FINAL PLAYS YEEEEEE


    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 29


    2016 NFL Mock Draft - July 24


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    2015 NBA Mock Draft - July 1


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

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