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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



    Leave a comment

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    chuckster 11-13-2012 01:38 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    3     2

    @GB Paul: (laugh out loud), could not agree more with your post. These QB posers that the Media have "told" us are fantastic QB s is a MYTH. From way back QBDK, Cutler, Romo, are a but a shadow of the "Super six"...or seven if you include Eli Manning. The others (of course) are: in no particular order: Rogers, Brady, Peyton Manning, Brees, Big Ben, Rivers. To be fair there are some promising QB s on the horizon, but for now that's where they are..the horizon. If you have not been "Playing" the above Greats consistently, you are missing out long term. WORSE, if you are consistently "FADING" these quarterbacks you are getting HURT long term. GLTA.
    GB Paul 11-13-2012 12:45 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.182 (total posts: 1)
    29     3

    Rodgers to Cutler, "so...you scored 6 points against the Texans...that's cute. We scored 6 touchdowns!"
    GStar 11-13-2012 12:13 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.138 (total posts: 13)
    13     4

    I only needed the Steelers to cover 4 yesterday and they couldn't do it..

    Such a piss off..

    Prevented the parlay I had going from paying out (40:1)..
    Erik, San Diego 11-13-2012 11:43 am xxx.xxx.xxx8.96 (total posts: 32)
    18     15

    Walter, you're only down $280 after a the terrible pre-season and first weeek. Very impressive come back my friend, very impressive!!
    chuckster 11-13-2012 11:31 am xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    3     4

    The correct straight play for last nights game was Chiefs plus the points and the UNDER. In fact the Under was the BEST play. Two days ago this game was forecast- ed with TONS of Rain and temperatures in the low 40's. This forecast stayed the same all the way to opening kickoff. The Total line started at 42 three days ago and as the game got closer the line dropped and dropped and dropped until in some houses it was 37.5. This game had RUN, RUN, RUN written all over it. I of course played the Steelers in a ten point teaser -2.5 and did not include the Total. Escaped with a first spot win, but really messed up not teasing the Total up and going Under. On another matter, won another basketball teaser last night teasing the Thunder to +1.5 for my third spot win. Back in a while, Congrats to all winners.
    AL CIEN 11-13-2012 11:05 am xxx.xxx.xxx4.11 (total posts: 4)
    5     4

    Went 3 anf 5 this weekend with my PICK of the week WINNING and making up for the JETS loss.. WTF happended to the LIONS?? 9 UNITS this weekend.. not bad

    Went 2-0 last night on the Colts and the under and 4-5 on last weeks picks.. Nice way to start the weekend and here are my picks:

    TICKET

    **************************

    SAINTS +3

    LIONS -1.5

    COWBOYS -1.5

    JETS +6

    All for 5 UNITS each

    Pick of the Week:

    TEXANS +2 10 UNITS

    **************************
    Last team on a 8 team parlay, fail 11-13-2012 03:38 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.93 (total posts: 14)
    8     3

    I think I have a concussion from that train wreck MNF game..

    Glad a lot of you fellas won though*
    JETHRO 11-13-2012 01:04 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    8     5

    ONE GAME STILL IN PROGRESS AND THE ONLY FAVORITE TO COVER TONITE IN THE NBA WAS UTAH- NEEDED 3 OT'S TO DO IT.
    CONGRATS TO ALL WITH K.C. 2 T.D.S A LOT TO LAY IN BAD WEATHER. KUDOS TO GURUBALL AND EVERYONE ELSE FOR THEIR INPUT.
    The most ballerish man in the world 11-13-2012 01:04 am xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 40)
    13     7

    I can just see GURU "DALHI LAMA" BALL watching MNF......

    Penthouse suite at the Bellagio sipping Dom and being fed grapes. He's got 1 Victoria Secret supermodel in charge of the left nut,1 in charge of the right nut and the hottest supermodel working the meat. Every now and then he yells,"THROW IT DEEP CASSEL!!!" and every now and then he sighs,"Yeah baby,get that nut....I wanna beat that spread."

    KEEP ON DOING THAT BALLERISH SH1T YOU DO GURU!!
    JETHRO 11-13-2012 12:42 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.86 (total posts: 349)
    8     6

    ANOTHER EASY UNDER IN PRIMETIME. MIGHT AS WELL KEEP RIDING THIS TRAIN. MIAMI AT BUFFALO- UNDER.
    DALHI LAMA 11-13-2012 12:39 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.33 (total posts: 261)
    17     16

    RULE #2

    "WHEN GURUBALL TELLS YOU TO TAKE THE POINTS IN AN NFL MATCH-UP, TAKE THE MF'IN POINTS"
    Kyle 11-13-2012 12:38 am xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 245)
    14     11

    And those with the KC ML are loving that kick!
    DALHI LAMA 11-13-2012 12:30 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.33 (total posts: 261)
    15     5

    GOLDEN RULE #1

    "NEVER LISTEN TO THY FELLOW SPORTS COMMENTATORS(ESPN ECT...), UNLESS FAILURE AND LOSS IS IN YOUR AGENDA"
    GURUBALL 11-13-2012 12:23 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.33 (total posts: 261)
    15     12

    ILL TAKE A 55 UNIT WEEK...THANK YOU, YOUR WELCOME. AND TOLD YOU SO......PEACE TILL NEXT WEEK. IMMMMM UP N OUT.
    1
    andy w 11-13-2012 12:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 206)
    6     17

    @purelock

    You're the best. I'm a big fan.

    Yeah, you should just post your top play. It's hard to try to call all the games.


    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 24


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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