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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



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    BigDaddyVladdy 11-14-2012 02:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx24.6 (total posts: 158)
    4     5

    ***I meant to say, clippers will be pumped for miami just like they were for San Antonio a couple of days back (not miami).
    BigDaddyVladdy 11-14-2012 02:31 pm xxx.xxx.xxx24.6 (total posts: 158)
    5     6

    @theguru66 - thanks bro! That was a weird game last night, pathetic effort by the pacers vs toronto.. one of my friends lost a bunch of money on parlays where everything hit, and he had pacers ML as the only thing that missed - that's who i feel bad for!!

    I like a couple of plays for today:
    Atlanta +2 - they are simply a much better team than GS, and GS will have bogut out for a week or two now. I think Atlanta ML for a light positive payout is the way to go.

    As a laker fan it pains me to say this, but i really like the clippers tonight. Miami is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers. Clippers will be pumped for this game, just like they were for miami, and are one of the few teams in the nba that can run with miami. I think you can get +1 in some books on the clipps, but I am looking at an outright victory.

    Atlanta Hawks +2 (or Moneyline).
    Clippers +1 (or pick, whatever your book has).

    Good luck to all,
    BDV
    Kris 11-14-2012 02:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.66 (total posts: 1)
    17     9

    Wake up Walter...
    GURUBALL 11-14-2012 02:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.33 (total posts: 261)
    6     4

    IM WELL AWARE OF THE NBA GUYS, THATS WHY I DON'T BET NBA. BUT YEA IM TAKING A LOOK AT THIS WEEKS GAMES AND MAKING SURE I DON'T GET ONE LOSS THIS WEEK HAHA . ILL BE BACK WITH MY PICKS LATER, SO FAR FOR TONIGHT CFB GAMES I LIKE BOTH FAVORITES, WHICH IS A PROBLEM DURING THE WEEK BECAUSE DOGS USUALLY WIN EVERY TIME DURING THE WEEK. SO WE'LL SEE WHAT I COME UP WITH..

    LETS FUCCCKIN GO! WE HAVE SOME DOUGH TO COLLECT...

    LATER SKATERS....
    Sambo 11-14-2012 02:23 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.50 (total posts: 1)
    77     6

    Get the picks done please for the week...you take way too long.
    chuckster 11-14-2012 01:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    4     6

    So far, I have 76ers minus a half, with two open spots in a eight point 3 team teaser. GLTA.
    Grumpy Old Man 11-14-2012 01:50 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.20 (total posts: 24)
    5     5

    BTW, @guru66, thanks for your input this season. It's been a struggle, but it almost always is. As long as you finish on the plus side of the season, it's a win. I recall some young whippersnapper questioning how it could be a succesful season with only a few units over even...these kids. I suppose when you've been in this long enough, you realize a few units over even is not an easy thing to do. So, keep up the good work.

    For all the ladies on this board, please rethink spending your time gambling. You could spend that time far better in staying thin and pretty - I kid (but not really).
    Grumpy Old Man 11-14-2012 01:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.20 (total posts: 24)
    5     8

    Gentleman (and possibly some ladies):

    Take the Steelers at home +3. Yes, I know, Big Ben is out. Steelers will run, run, and run. Ravens will have a difficult time stopping the run. And, for sure, the Steelers defense will step up. And for all you Ravens fans, we already know what the Ravens are about on the road - something dysfunctional on offense (I can't quite figure it out).

    In sum, Steelers will play good defense (against a team that struggles on offense on the road) and ball control offense (against a team that struggles against the run). I won't be surprised if Steelers win this game outright.

    BTW, I'm not a fan of either team, but I live close to Baltimore. Last week's victory has the town irrationally confident about the Steelers game.

    -Grumpy Old Man
    chuckster 11-14-2012 12:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.210 (total posts: 309)
    5     5

    @theguru66: Wow! Indeed! Had the Pacers -1.5 at Home against a tired, injured, weak Toronto ball club, yep, Toronto scores 5 friggin points in the fourth quarter and WINS by 2!!! Of course my two other plays came in easily, Knicks +1.5 and Knicks/Orlando Under 196. Serves me right, broke one of my capping rules: Never take a losing squad when they are Giving points....no matter who they are playing. That little reminder cost me coin last night. Congrats to all winners, GLTA. Back in a while with some NBA picks for tonight.
    PureLock 11-14-2012 06:44 am xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    7     22

    @theguru66, that hurt man, Danny Green got that shot in cost me 40 units man. Oh well, I end up just lost the juice. But another side of this, better then lost all. Anyway, I be back tonight folks, so many games going on tonight. College FB, Basketball, and NBA. I hope I got some TOP PLAY for you guys. Later all.
    theguru66 11-14-2012 04:22 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    8     3

    @eddycash

    I'm not disagreeing but it can still be capped IMO. Just because their less valued doesn't mean that you can't use that knowledge in your cap. In fact I've had some pretty good success (this year so far not included) in the NBA. Obviously not football but still fun to wager on.
    eddycash 11-14-2012 02:32 am xxx.xxx.xxx70.2 (total posts: 1)
    17     19

    The nba games are not as important as nfl games, because there are only 16 games in the nfl..each games is valued more. In the nba, there is more room for games to be fixed or for teams to play soft. Just like in mlb, the nba has too many games in the regular season.
    theguru66 11-14-2012 02:21 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    21     18

    insane stat of the night, the Raptors scored FIVE points in the ENTIRE fourth quarter in tonight's game




    and STILL won!

    WOW
    theguru66 11-14-2012 01:51 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    3     3

    @PureLock

    Ouch, I was just about to congratulate you on a great day and Green hit that dagger, that was stone cold man. Great call on the Blazers though.
    theguru66 11-14-2012 01:38 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    26     17

    Sorry Passengers got caught up today and couldn't post. Had a decent day in college as I liked Duke (that line was so fishy, why was Kentucky underdog's in that game, if I asked anyone before they saw the line how many should Kentucky be favored by no one would have said they were getting points so that is an automatic sharp play) and BYU would got out to a big lead and held on to cover by 3. However, truth be told, the NBA is kicking my a$$.

    @GURUball

    There NBA and NFL are similar in that they have about the same number of teams in each therefore it's a microcosm of every NFL Sunday. Yes there are more games to cap but if the NFL played everyday like the NBA does wouldn't you cap it? Yes it takes time just like the NFL but since it happens everyday there is more room for error. I think you'd be good at it but I still wish you posted some analysis.

    @BigDaddyVladdy

    Welcome back first of all and I to was all over the Pacers tonight so don't feel bad.

    I still have the Spurs in a tight one out west but I took the Nets (covered) and the over in the Wizards game (I know what was I thinking?) with the aforementioned Pacers. So I'm either going to be 1-3 or 2-2 which stinks! Don't fade me just yet cause when the train gets rolling it's a fun ride. So without those posted picks and with last night's debacle I remain at 12-14. I'll be back tomorrow and as always I hope everyone did well tonight!


    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


    NFL Free Agents - April 16


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 10


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    2014 NBA Mock Draft - March 26


    NFL Picks - Feb. 2




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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