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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



    Leave a comment

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    Alias 09-24-2012 07:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.51 (total posts: 20)
    7     5

    Seattle 17-8 on Monday night football.....best record in the NFL....
    eddycash 09-24-2012 07:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.111 (total posts: 8)
    106     7

    Since I already know the winner of tonight's game is predetermined, I am going to choose Seattle +4. Vegas (which is the Illuminati disguised behind corporations) is cashing in this year before the galactic alignment on Dec 21, 2012. After that fateful day, the notorious secret society will no longer control this world.
    NOIDEA 09-24-2012 07:41 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.30 (total posts: 107)
    6     7

    @ BIG BOB I DONT THINK IT WILL BE A BLOW OUT .... BUT I THINK G. BAY WILL GET IT DONE.. AGAIN NO REFS NEEDED. I JUST FLEW UP MY 5 BOYS UP TO REF THIS GAME AGES 6 8 9 12 AND 15 THEY KNOW FOOTBALL ...AS SEEN ON T.V. THELL GET IT RIGHT.
    big bob 09-24-2012 07:26 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.138 (total posts: 1)
    6     49

    You guys are way over thinking this one....gb and over is the bet and its an easy one....84 % are betting gb....normally anything over 80% you best go the other way so the Seattle bettors have a great point if this game was played yesterday....this is MNF and Aaron Rodgers will put at least 35 on the board and the rookie will struggle.....38- 17 green bay
    TheBreadMan 09-24-2012 07:24 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.206 (total posts: 7)
    5     5

    At the bar in a small town where I live , the owner has a pet monkey and the monkey picks one team ,and over or under ,out of a hat every monday night. Tonight he picked Seattle and the under.
    Magoo 09-24-2012 07:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.82 (total posts: 2)
    11     5

    Take seahawks +3.5 and up. This is 2012 not 2011.
    Pablo Cruise 09-24-2012 06:55 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.44 (total posts: 3)
    4     7

    Haven't posted picks here before but I have been doing pretty well so far this season (hopefully that wasn't the kiss of death).

    @ACE - Roll with the under at 46 in tonight's game.
    NOIDEA 09-24-2012 06:41 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.30 (total posts: 107)
    5     6

    @ MURF ... THEN DONT PLAY IT... JUST SIT AND WAIT FOR SOMETHING YOU LIKE. OR YOU CAN TAKE THE 3.5 OR GO M LINE HAWKS. ILL STICK WITH WHO I THINK CAN GET TO THE PLAYOFFS AND IN THIS GAME ITS G.BAY.
    NOIDEA 09-24-2012 06:38 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.30 (total posts: 107)
    5     6

    OH ONE MORE THING .......NO REFS...... NEEDED TONIGHT... LETS PLAY THIS ONE LIKE PLAYIN IN A PARK SOMWHERE.
    Murfdigidy 09-24-2012 06:37 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.247 (total posts: 3)
    5     6

    Im torn, obviously everyone likes GB because they're the better team, but this line is shady, which means go against the public and take Seattle. Im so torn, Nothing kills me more though than taking a team I have zero confidence in to play a sound team like GB on MNF. I mean 80% of money on GB, instincts tell me take Seattle...ugh
    NOIDEA 09-24-2012 06:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.30 (total posts: 107)
    5     12

    @ ACE I COULD SEE THE UNDER. BUT IM GOING TO DO WHAT I ALLWAYS DO AND PLAY WHAT I THINK IS THE BETTER TEAM. IT WILL BE LOUD TONIGHT IN SEATTLE AND ARRON WILL HAVE TO GO WITH HAND SIGNALS. WHEN IT COMES TO THE HAWKS I CAN SEE LYNCH GETTIN HIS BUT I THINK G BAYS D FENCE CAN HANDLE THE WIDE OUTS OF THE HAWKS... CAN WILSON STEP... AND I MEEN THAT AS IN ...COULD YOU GET ME A STEP LATTER... STEP UP... AGAIN G. BAY NEEDS A WIN. I JUST BELEVE WITH JONES IN 2 NIGHT THEY WILL FIND A WAY TO WIN THIS GAME...FINLEY AND G. NELSON WILL STEP UP I HOPE G.L. NO DROPED BALLS TONIGHT G.BAY.
    Consider it done 09-24-2012 06:32 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.110 (total posts: 22)
    7     6

    Wekk 4 picks fellas

    Falcons will destroy Panthaers at home...take 7 pts.

    Chargers are so much better than the chiefs..a point and a half? please take SD

    Bengal are so much better ..a point and a half? please take Cin

    Giants are tough, road tough, super bowl champs.....oh and we get 2 points too?...OK. NY
    vik 09-24-2012 06:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.37 (total posts: 1)
    20     6

    shocked you didn't see the cardinals win coming, with the eagles being so terribly overrated and the cardinals as streaking home dogs.
    Ace 09-24-2012 06:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.112 (total posts: 7)
    5     5

    Interesting stats:
    - Aaron Rodgers is 19-13-1 ATS on the road.
    - The Seahawks are 7-2-1 ATS when playing at home on a Monday night.

    My gut tells me to go with GB but I will layoff given that my gut has produced mixed results this weekend (lost with SF and DET, won with KC and NE, push with NYJ).

    I like the under in this game. I think the Seahawks will play ball control, with GB's aerial attack limited due to a hobbled Jennings and a pedestrian running game. Thoughts anyone?
    Shrimp 09-24-2012 06:17 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.141 (total posts: 2)
    8     5

    Seahawks +3.
    Fade Walter.
    Fade the public.
    Cash in.


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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