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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



    Leave a comment

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    Joe 09-28-2012 05:22 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.33 (total posts: 48)
    10     7

    What a hectic week in the NFL, after the Monday debacle I was going to quit betting until we get the Refs back. I planned to boycott watching games and going to NFL.com, but the league won't even let me do that. I am off to a horrendous start and I can blame the refs all I want. I am sitting at the miserable record of 5-10. Thats an incredible 33% and I probably couldn't do that bad if I tried. I lost a definite 3 if not 5 plays this year off of shady calls and phantom penalties ect. That being said I am glad as hell that we have our Refs back. I'm even more excited to start yelling at these refs for crappy calls. I have been doing this for a long time and I know that the averages will even out. We all get cold streaks and all get hot streaks. Its the life of a handicapper. A good friend of mine (guru66) says it best. It's a marathon not a sprint. We have 17 weeks to be at 55% to 60%.

    @Guru -
    I had a nasty week also and it happens. I love how everyone says you have this ego. Hahahaha. You made more money for everyone through the year than these new guys even realize. I know alot of cappers and I appreciate all the work you do. Imagine a world where you actually go 80% a week. That would be nice. Keep up the great analysis and lets get something good together by Sunday. I'm overdue for a solid week and you have this crazy tendency to bounce back whenever you don't hit 50%.

    BHPicks 09-28-2012 05:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.82 (total posts: 193)
    7     155

    FREE PICK:

    Rays -115

    To read the analysis for this pick go to:
    www.BHPicks.com/freepicks.html

    PREMIUM PICKS:

    Yankees - Blue Jays
    Hawaii - BYU

    To purchase these picks go to:
    www.BHPicks.com/premiumpicks.html
    GStar 09-28-2012 04:27 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    6     6

    Looking at the statistics thus far, I'd say BYU probably doesn't win by more then 14. But something about that big number combined with all of the dollars going on HAW make me nervous..

    -

    I see the line has moved to 25.5 and my book still showing 27.5..

    -

    Also the total is set quite low in this considering the spread..

    -

    I'll advise caution but I'm gonna go for it Henry and I'm gonna take the points again. HAW +27.5.
    henry 09-28-2012 03:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 5)
    7     7

    GSTAR - so much to think about re: BYU and HAW.

    BYU didn't do diddly on offense last week but held Boise to a TD, do they repeat that or do they put points on the board?

    Hawaii lets up ALOT of points, will BYU put points up or stall like last week.

    Hmmmm
    Shrugging Shoulders 09-28-2012 03:43 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.31 (total posts: 1)
    7     6

    I think I need to stop reading this site before making my picks. I'm probably better off flipping a coin. lol :)
    Roll Tide 09-28-2012 01:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.59 (total posts: 1)
    7     7

    Aaron Rodgers has thrown a total of 3 touchdowns in 3 games, who would have thought? Now they come out with a big number, 53, for the NO game. San Fran, Chicago, and Seattle D are just awesome and they shut down the green and gold. I believe Vegas is trying to get the public to play the under in this game. Take the over as two star QBs in desparate need of a win will perform on this Sunday...as long as the weather holds, it is beautiful in the midwest today.

    If you do not have Dallas as your defense in fantasy, try to pick them up for Monday night, then you can drop them. They should be good for about 20 points, pick 6, six or seven sacks. Bears offense is just down right awful...get all over Dallas.
    theguru66 09-28-2012 01:31 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    6     7

    @@theguru66

    Most of that stuff is me just having fun, I know I use the train reference and it may seem like I have an "ego" but I don't know why someone who preaches all the time that hitting at 60% is good means that I have an ego.

    WIN IT ALL BACK MONDAY NIGHT 09-28-2012 01:31 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.171 (total posts: 5)
    6     6

    UPSET OF THE WEEK.....

    TAKE CHICAGO BEARS GETTING THE PTS...

    SPECIAL TEAMS AND FIELD POSITION FAVOR BEARS IN A MAJOR WAY..

    Say WHAAT?? 09-28-2012 01:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.110 (total posts: 22)
    7     6

    "I don't like to lay double digits in divisional matchups this early in the season, so that's the only thing holding me back from making this a huge play. Baltimore should win big."
    ----------------------------

    Not only was Walt dead wrong but he bets 4 units on NE/Bills ( a divisional matchup)..Bring back the replacement Waltfootball.com

    Roll Tide 09-28-2012 01:15 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.21 (total posts: 1)
    7     6

    @GURUBALL
    im so pathetic i need approval from anonymous posters on a football site!!

    LMAO
    GStar 09-28-2012 12:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    6     5

    OK guys it looks like the Canadian Football League play of the day is Calgary Stampeders -4.5.

    Edmonton has their 3rd string QB in tonight and hasn't been able to put together a win in over a month.

    This line is moving like crazy and is now anywhere between -6.5 and -7. Don't take it this high pay the little extra and bring it down to -6. If you can get it between -4.5 and -6 I think we're lookin' good.

    I'm probably going to go with 2 units on this pick.
    Chiefs 09-28-2012 12:31 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.52 (total posts: 2)
    9     6

    I wouldn't bet that game Walt. That looks like a trap game for those betting on SD. Same thing happened last year with KC, there defense was awful the first two games then all of a sudden they started to improve. If you watch the second half the last weeks game that defense looked like they are supposed to look like. I think the Chiefs take it by 3. If it was in San Diego I'd feel more comfortable with your pick. The other early picks look pretty solid.
    to fade walter all year 09-28-2012 12:19 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 6)
    68     6

    What's up with touting on this site? You don't tweet your picks in time to play them, then you brag about how your "sponsors" are killing it. You went 0-4 on your tweeted college picks last Saturday and then didn't tweet a play all day. You bragged about having the Browns and Wash U. last night after the fact and never tweeted those picks prior to the games. Don't mislead everyone here about how great your picks are unless you're willing to post them so all can see.
    GStar 09-28-2012 12:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    7     6

    @Henry

    Thanks man I hope the Alouette's -1.5 pick comes through as well so I cash my parlay.

    --

    Why even bother with the Walter hating? Everyone can see his record hasn't been great since the 2010 season; it's all posted. Use your own judgement, and just don't bet his picks if you don't like them. If you take them, take them at your own friggin' risk. No one is putting a gun to your head.
    GStar 09-28-2012 12:03 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.13 (total posts: 118)
    6     6

    Don't go crazy on HAW +27..

    It seems easy but the more I look into this one feels too easy. Seems a little like a trap to me.


    Fantasy Football Rankings - July 24


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
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    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
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    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

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    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
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    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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