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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



    Leave a comment

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    Joe 09-30-2012 11:11 am xxx.xxx.xxx.167 (total posts: 1)
    6     11

    I am at the NASCAR race so I'm not able to do any write ups. I took the opposite
    Panthers +7
    Rams +3
    Bengals over 43
    Eagles -2
    @NOIDEA 09-30-2012 10:52 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.86 (total posts: 60)
    7     9

    Did Ponder have clothes on in this dream?
    NOIDEA 09-30-2012 09:43 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.87 (total posts: 4)
    8     7

    GOOD MORNING PLAYERS. OK IM OVER THE G.BAY GAME ...I THINK. TIME TO MOVE ON. IM PLAYIN ALL OF GURU66 PLAYS. I THINK HE HAS ATL AND SEA RIGHT ON. ABOUT 5 YRS BACK I WENT TO LAUGHLIN NV WITH A FRIEND TO SEE KID ROCK.. WE GOT SHXX FACED BUZED ..IT WAS A GREAT SHOW. I WOKE UP AT 7 AM FROM A DREAM AMD IN THAT DREAM I SAW 3 TEAMS THAT WOULD ALL WIN THAT SUNDAY... NOW MIDE YOU I HADENT EVEN LOOKED AT THE LINES ON THE GAME ..I WAS THERE TO PARTY AND SEE A SHOW.. WELL I GOT UP WENT DOWN TO THE S.BOOK AND LAYED 1100 ON TEN.. AND THE JAGS AND THE JETS IN A PAR FOR 2000. THAT WAS A GREAT W END ALL HIT FOR 3600. I HAD ONE LAST NIGHT... PONDER WAS WHAT I WOKE UP WITH. I NEVER EVEN USE THAT WORD.. IM NOT PLAYIN IT BUT MIN 2 DAY????
    BWOSS BAILEY 09-30-2012 09:27 am xxx.xxx.xxx.107 (total posts: 2)
    7     8

    EAGLES WILL WIN TODAY...GIANTS WILL CHOKE LIKE ALWAYS
    Danielo65 09-30-2012 09:10 am xxx.xxx.xxx.127 (total posts: 72)
    7     6

    I can't believe I could've gotten Minnesota at 7 at one point... sucks.

    Rollin with a tease of Minny +11, SD + 5.5, Chargers-Chiefs O 37.5 n that's it for the early games.

    GLTA
    GURUBALL 09-30-2012 07:00 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.33 (total posts: 261)
    8     6

    FML. GREEDYESS KILLS.....I REALLY DID'NT NEED TO MAKE WIS under a 25 units play. ouch..OH WELL ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER DOLLAR. WENT 7-2 LAST NIGHT UP ABOUT +22 UNITS FOR THE WEEK. TOMORROW IS A HUGE DAY. PAY DAY.....$$CHING CHANG$$

    GLTA! TIME TO GET A COUPLE HOURS OF SLEEP AND BURN THIS ALKY OFF.....


    @guru66

    tell me about it man. all of a sudden Wisconsin is putting up points, I knew something was up, at the last minute the spread ended at 53...wish i could take that 1 back...again that greedyness. but hey when you do hit that big play and your playing with the books money. DAM thats a good feeling! hahaha Anyways,
    Keep up the good work. Like your plays so far, especially the ATL and SEA., BIGMONEY!
    gl brotha....
    larry 09-30-2012 04:09 am xxx.xxx.xxx.188 (total posts: 14)
    7     8

    tell me why the giants don't win?

    -they've had tons of time off since a very easy game vs. the panthers like 10 days ago
    -the eagles got destroyed and are banged up and butt hurt over the cardinals loss
    -jason pierre paul will motor through that crappy O line and sack Vick at least 5 times
    -eli manning is great on the road and has chemistry with Cruz
    doubledragonsports.com = win 09-30-2012 04:03 am xxx.xxx.xxx.168 (total posts: 2)
    7     12

    doubledragonsports.com = win

    doubledragonsports.com = win

    doubledragonsports.com = win
    theguru66 09-30-2012 03:05 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    6     9

    OK, here we go passengers,

    @Joe

    Great caps as always and thanks for the support. You will always have one of the seats in the private cabin of this train. I hope your right about that bounce back thing because after another loss I am now 10-8-2 so far this season in the NFL. 55% is the mendoza line when it comes sports gambling and that has to improve.

    I know I told everyone that I would pick 5 games every Sunday in honor of a pool that I'm in but I have six-pack of your finest ale on tap for Sunday. I went through the numbers and I just couldn't decide on my 5 and 6 pick and instead of eliminating one I just decided to post it. So here we go for week 4...

    1pm; Atlanta hosts the Panthers and this line is a little fishy to me. So before you go any further just keep that in mind as I capped this game with THAT in mind. Cam Newton had his BIG chance to prove that he is going to be the prototypical next gen QB last Thursday and what did he do? He sh!t the bed! Horribly! I almost threw something at the TV when I watched him pouting on the sideline like a 8th grader. I drafted him in my fantasy league as I was high on him this year but after last Thursday I am beginning to worry a bit about him. He is starting to think to much and against Atlanta that is going to be a big problem. Carolina has played the Bucs, the Saints, and the Giants. The Bucs have a decent D and so do the Giants BUT the Saints D is god awful. They scored 10 points vs. the Bucs and 7 points against the Giants. That is not that good against just those decent D's NOW they have to face the Falcons D ON THE ROAD!!! The Falcons have given up points yes but their D at times has looked pretty awesome. This is not going to be a fun game for Cam Newton and I think he will bounce back a little but at the end of the day I have the Falcons winning by about 15. I'll say 31-16. Lay the 7 and hope against back door cover.

    1pm; last week when I took the Niners and forgot about the let down curse I promised I wouldn't make the same mistake twice. Basically the opposite of the let down game is the bounce back wake up call game and THIS is that game for the Niners. They just played in Minnesota and now travel only half way east and on top of that they have been thinking all week about that loss to the Viks. This is going to be a really BAD game for the Jets. I think the topic of conversation all next week on Sportscenter will be about Tim Tebow again and why don't the Jets give him a chance. Can't wait for that......NOT! Seriously, the Jets just lost Revis and Rex is thin but wears all his old clothes. Why do he do that?? Bottome line is the Jets are a shell of that team that destroyed the Bills in week one, they BARELY beat the DOLPHINS!? Niners win this game 31-7 I would lay 13 so I will def lay 5. (oh yeah, Vegas keeps pumping up this line because they know the fvcked up and set it to low when the Niners lost last week. If the Niners win last week they are 10 point road favorites in this game).

    Getting tired so I gotta speed this up.

    1pm; I know that every game between the Chiefs and Chargers in the last 100 years in KC have gone under (that is not true but I'm proving a point) I still like the over in this game. Chargers are going to score some points because Rivers always plays well against teams that can't play defense. How far has Romeo's stock fallen? My sleeper D this year was Kansas City. They have negative points in my league?! After THREE weeks! They will bounce back but not this week as I have them giving up at least 28 points. Cassell always plays decent in front of the home crowd so I see them scoring some also. 44 1/2 is a tad low as I have this one at 49 so take the over.

    1pm; Speaking of defenses that are for real, the Seahawks defense is for real. They stink on offense so they will play a lot of close games but Sam Bradford is not going to be able to solve what Aaron Rodgers couldn't. The Rams just played against a good defense and scored 6 points, now they face the Seahawks. I usually like taking home teams when the spread is 3 but in this case it's just a tease. Seahawks win 24-7.

    4:25; RG3 is good but he is playing on the Baylor Redskins. They will score 63 but give up 70 and still lose. Redskins can NOT stop anyone from scoring. As you might imagine, this is a problem. I love taking home teams when the line is 3 but I REALLY like it when a team that has a VERY legitimate chance at winning are only given 2 at home. Tampa is just a better team right now then the Redskins and all they have to really do is win the game. Bucs win on a last minute field goal, sure why not, and cover by 1.

    8:30; Look, you all know by now that I really do not like Vick. I think he is done and I also think the Eagles will do nothing of significance with him as their quarterback (the Steelers lose to Vick next week and I am going to be an angry person) but I also am not a big fan of Eli Manning. I think he is very over rated. So this is a hard game to cap if your just looking at the quarterbacks. This is just one of those big stage, division snot knockers, that you can pretty much throw out everything when it comes to caps type games. I LOVED the Cards last week because of how average the Eagles are but the Giants coming into town will light a fire under them and just like the Bucs they are only favored by 2. I think they win this game....period.

    So there you have it, Sunday's RECAP:

    Falcons -7
    49ers -5
    Chiefs/Chargers over 44 1/2
    Seahawks -3
    Bucs -2
    Eagles -2

    Good Luck today everyone and as always please have your tickets ready.

    PS - I also like the Cardinals tomorrow in the Majors. They will bounce back and put the Dodgers to bed with Lynn on the mound.
    steve 09-30-2012 02:24 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.96 (total posts: 3)
    9     6

    Thumbs up if you like these teasers
    Over 43.5 in Detroit
    Over 43.5 in Atlanta
    and
    Texans minus 5
    Falcons a pick em!
    eternal 09-30-2012 02:02 am xxx.xxx.xxx.164 (total posts: 1)
    5     5

    @ guru66
    so what is your pick for tomoro bro
    theguru66 09-30-2012 01:21 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    5     5

    @born2gamble

    Excellent write up. I am not saying I agree OR disagree but it's an excellent argument and a great cap.

    One free ticket for you.
    theguru66 09-30-2012 01:11 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    6     5

    @GURUBALL

    I took the under in the Wisconsin game as well so don't feel bad. However, if your normal plays are under 10 units and you layed 25!!! units on that I feel for you. I liked it but I didn't 25 unit like it.

    With the way the Badgers offense looked I thought for sure it would go under.
    gypsy boy 09-30-2012 12:39 am xxx.xxx.xxx4.49 (total posts: 5)
    39     18

    I'm leaning on SF + ne on a parlay
    any thoughts? Thumbs up if you agree
    born2gamble 09-30-2012 12:37 am xxx.xxx.xxx.128 (total posts: 1)
    5     6

    ONE MORE FOR THE MASSES....

    We saw what happened two weeks ago when Chicago went to Green Bay and was manhandled by Clay Mathews and the Green Bay Packers' pass rush. We expect DeMarcus Ware and the Cowboys to do something similar. However, do not be surprised to see Chicago do a better job of returning the favor to Tony Romo and Dallas' offense in a game we expect to be low scoring and close on Monday night.

    In our most up-to-date NFL Power Rankings, Chicago ranks tenth overall in the NFL. The Bears are just one of four teams - with Seattle, Arizona and San Francisco - that ranks in the top ten against the run and against the pass in our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics. In those same rankings, Dallas is 11th overall and ranks tenth in offense and 11th in defense. The Cowboys are also well balanced, yet are not among the elite in any one element of the game.

    Even more notably than the fact that these two teams are next to each other in our rankings (not to mention tied in the standings and similar in NFC playoff probability) five of the six games that Chicago and Dallas have played thus far have gone UNDER their consensus total lines. Only the Bears' blowout win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 went OVER. Don't expect a game like that this week. The lower scoring a game, the more likely it is that the underdog covers (assuming it is not a one point line) because the expected margins naturally shrink and every individual play means more.

    This is a great example of game like that where the favorite is the home team, yet is the slightly weaker overall team with neither squad is likely to break 20 and a line greater than a field goal. Final scores of 21-20, 17-14, 20-17, 17-16 and other, similar outcomes, are fairly likely with no obvious edge and touchdowns at a premium (in the five games referenced that have stayed UNDER for these two teams, the Bears' and Cowboys' offenses have combined to score just SEVEN touchdowns).


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
    Week 1 NFL Picks
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