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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



    Leave a comment

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    Leonard Little's Driving Instructor 10-04-2012 08:04 am xxx.xxx.xxx.194 (total posts: 1)
    6     8

    Seriously Walt, who looks past an opponent to the Rams? Even Emmit wouldn't do that!!
    theguru66 10-04-2012 03:30 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    27     17

    Four NFL weeks in the books already, I know, I can't believe it either. At the quarter mark you can usually start to get a pretty good feel on the teams and games for the next 2-3 weeks. IMO the caps do get a little bit easier as you can track Vegas trends and the direction these teams are going in. OK, another slightly under average week and the record is JUST over the .500 mark at 12-11-3. Time to make a move and get this train chugging again.

    Thursday Night Football, and the 4-0 Arizona Cardinals!! visit the St. Louis Rams. Arizona is obviously the surprise team but now the cat is out of the bag. Nobody is sleeping on this team and neither is Vegas. I think it's time the Cards came back to earth a little bit. Here is why. Arizona beat a good Seahawks team and then went on the road and beat the Pats. Back home and destroyed a WAY over rated Eagles team but then almost lost to the Dolphins at home! OK yes, this team is 4-0 but it could very well be 2-2 as the Pats and Fish games could have went either way. If they lose both of those games I think the Rams are 3 point favorites. That is GREAT line value with the Rams. Short week for the Cards as the travel to St. Louis and not much time to prepare. Oh yeah, this is a divisional game, don't forget that little tid-bit either. There are always a bigger edge to the home team in that scenario. Look, the Rams aren't that good of a football team. However, last year they were 2-12 and almost beat the Cardinal TWICE. I just have a weird feeling that this is the kind of game that Jeff Fisher usually wins and like I said, there is great line value. I originally was leaning with the under in this game but 39 is right where it should be and I'm going to avoid that play. Tomorrow the play is the St. Louis Rams getting 1 1/2 points as they'll take this one 20-17.

    Thursday's Recap:

    Rams +1 1/2

    Good Luck to everyone and as always have your tickets ready please!

    Good Luck to all and
    Chrismx193 10-04-2012 02:48 am xxx.xxx.xxx1.84 (total posts: 1)
    6     6

    I don't know exactly how the Cardinals line did in sacks, but the Cardinals DID have 4 sacks though.
    chuckster 10-03-2012 11:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.175 (total posts: 48)
    7     7

    Beem tracking Pittsburgh/Philly line and got what I was looking for, just a few minutes ago. Steeler line has fallen to Pittsburgh -3(-120). So, another three team open par with Arizona -1.5 with Steelers -3 (-120), one open spot. I will continue to look for line changes rest of the week. Right now there seems to be down pressure on the -7 patriot game. Good luck to all going forward.
    chuckster 10-03-2012 11:12 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.175 (total posts: 48)
    34     33

    @Walter: Hey bud, first off, nice going week 4, your handicapping seems to be moving along nicely. Secondly, I "see" most of your picks this week, but I sure hope your wrong about the Texans/Jets game. I've got the Niners and Texans in a three team open par and I'm truly not even worried about the Niner game. Now that you have taken the Jets and the points, I have something to worry about....Thanks! LOL. Anyway man continued good picking with the exception of course in the Texans/Jets game.
    tannerjack 10-03-2012 11:02 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.214 (total posts: 1)
    7     9

    Hey Walter,
    What about your stat from last week - QBs who have won 2 or more in a row in September without throwing an interception were 0-18 ATS the following week. After last week they are 0-20 (Buff. & 'Zona). This theory applies to Minnesaota this week. I'm all over the Titans!
    kiddnoname 10-03-2012 10:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.102 (total posts: 1)
    8     9

    Is Mark "Dirty" Sanchez still the Jets QB? I'll take Houston then!
    KBro 10-03-2012 10:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.28 (total posts: 1)
    11     8

    Those are all good points about Jets/Texans, but the best point you made was "If I trusted Mark Sanchez at all." All the trends and spread value in the world can't help you when you have the worst QB in the league, with the worst receiving options in the league, with one of the worst running games in the league, playing against the best team in the league.

    This Jet team could finish like the '11 Bucs - the team will quit on the coach and the QB as things spiral downward. The Niner game was just the first step.
    Reality check 10-03-2012 10:04 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.87 (total posts: 1)
    22     17

    @Johnny- you want respect for a guy who models male uggs and lets his wife style his hair every week like he's a doll? Get real man.
    Danielo65 10-03-2012 09:50 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.127 (total posts: 72)
    8     10

    I'm with Walt on New Orleans and Pittsburgh, but outside of those two games there's not a lot I like this week.

    I also kinda like the Panthers, as the Seahawks are becoming one of my favorite fades right now; they're simply too reliant on dominant defense and Wilson's being exposed as Tebow Lite. Also, consider the QB's the Panthers have had to face the past few weeks: Brees, Eli and Matty Ice... must-win home game against a Seattle team traveling to the Eastern time zone. I'd say Carolina should at the very least be featured in all teasers this week.


    Let's see how these lines move over the next few days
    Johnny 10-03-2012 09:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.64 (total posts: 15)
    9     24

    @Chuckster
    I'm a Patriots fan too man.
    I'm a little sick about Walter posting all of these bs about Tom Brady when he racked up 50 points against the Bills. I think he need to get some respect.
    Johnny 10-03-2012 09:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.64 (total posts: 15)
    11     7

    @Chuckster
    I'm a Patriots fan too man.
    I'm a little sick about Walter posting all of these bs about Tom Brady when he racked up 50 points against the Bills. I think he need to get some respect.
    Goose 10-03-2012 08:57 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.235 (total posts: 3)
    9     9

    Teamtakeum - thanks.
    chuckster 10-03-2012 08:31 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.175 (total posts: 48)
    12     6

    @Mike P: So are you saying that you will be playing Denver on Sunday vs. Your Pats?? How about playing those Bills vs. the 49ers who are home favorites. I have found that real good teams end up with a pretty decent ats. On the flip side, lousy teams, even with points, usually end up pretty badly ats. However if your figures are correct, than it is a point for consideration. Btw, no offense meant, I am also a big Patriot Fan..... Go Pats.
    teamtakeum 10-03-2012 07:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.207 (total posts: 10)
    8     6

    @goose you have to create an account with youtube which is free and when you hit the subscribe button on the video oyu subscribe to our channel so whenever we post a video you will get an email saying we posted a video


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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