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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



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    chuckster 11-04-2012 10:38 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.90 (total posts: 4)
    4     4

    Still thinking about doing a little more, but so far this is what I've got: Three team par with Denver -3.5, Falcons -4, Saints -3. Five team 14 point teaser with: Bengals +17.5, Packers +3, Texans +4, Tampa Bay +15, one open spot. Three team 10 point teaser with: Saints/Eagles OVER 42, for the moment two open spots. Good luck to all today. My favorite lined game in the NFL today is the Broncos -3.5. I just feel that Denver is the far superior team in this matchup. Get the coin folks!!
    pandemic 11-04-2012 10:35 am xxx.xxx.xxx.107 (total posts: 2)
    8     6

    who gives a fcuk about a marathon.
    Vegas Sharp 11-04-2012 10:13 am xxx.xxx.xxx8.55 (total posts: 1)
    6     5

    This game means more to the Steelers!!!!!. Perhaps, but keep in mind this game is in New York, the marathon just got cancelled, the city is reeling after the hurricane, but the football game must go on......I think the Giants have the city on thier shoulders my friend, this game suddenly means something for them!!!.......Just remember New Orleans..
    Fast Pick'r 11-04-2012 09:22 am xxx.xxx.xxx0.24 (total posts: 1)
    10     4

    With a solid day yesterday...going to keep it rilling with NFL picks for the 1 pm games. Please share thoughts:

    G.B. -10 (5 units)
    Chi-3.5 (8 units)
    Early game Lock:

    Balt. -3.5 (25 unit)
    Balt/Clev. Over (10 unit)

    GL let's all win together today!!!
    AceD 11-04-2012 08:05 am xxx.xxx.xxx8.87 (total posts: 5)
    7     5

    Hi all,

    Chicago vs titans:

    defense is what separates the good teams from the not very good teams and we can see it here as the Titans will have some trouble.

    Chicago -4.5

    Washington vs Carolina

    two explosive Qb's that rely on offense. exciting offense and this one could be a shootout so I look for this one to go big time over the total

    Over 47.5

    GLTA
    @travis 11-04-2012 07:49 am xxx.xxx.xxx.166 (total posts: 21)
    76     25

    One thing I've learned through the years of betting is if everything points to betting one side....... Run the other way or just stay away completely. Vegas wants you to think its easy money. If its so easy why is that number staying right were it opened at? Just saying good luck to all!!!
    THEPRO 11-04-2012 04:44 am xxx.xxx.xxx.174 (total posts: 2)
    8     4

    ATS - Giants, Bears, Raiders, Texans, Eagles.

    Bet with an edge.

    Good Luck
    theguru66 11-04-2012 03:45 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    13     7

    Howdy passengers, happy day light savings as the vampires get to be up another hour tonight. Lots of good story lines in the NFL this year and it's time to start separating the men from the boys. Do yourself a favor and don't bet on the Steelers/Giants game. I am actually going to the game and I have a lot of insight being I'm from NY and this area in general. The whole Giants winning one for NY is not what's it's cracked up to be. They play in Jersey and Jersey got ROCKED in Sandy. There are a lot of Giants fans from Jersey and between the storm and the fact that the Nation is invading it all but eliminates home field. I think we're going to see a lot of sold tickets and empty seats. People are worried about the power not about going to a mid-season non-conference game. Plus the Knicks won the "game for the city" against Miami and LeBron as Knicks fans still feel shunned for the decision. Look I think it's going to be a good game and the line is right where it should be and that just screams avoid! Follow the facts not your heart even if it is for a really good cause. Sh!t now I know what New Orleans felt like after Katrina, it was Sandy x5!!!

    Ok back to business, 27-23-3 so far this year basically means the train is moving but it's got a grandma driving her. Time to get her humming a little better, let's go....

    1pm, Arizona just got smoked like a fine Cuban against the Niners as they head up to face the Packers on the not frozen but just sort of firm tundra. I like the UNDER a good amount in this game. Cards have MAJOR quarterback issues and their offensive line is just brutal. Clay Matthews should be doing a lot of dancing today. So I don't see the Cards scoring a good deal. Let's see, 3, 16, 14, and 3, those are the offensive numbers put out by this flightless bird team in the last 4 games, ummm Ken, I don't think Johnny Bones is getting it done. The game they scored 16 points in was against BUFFALO! If you can't score more then 16 on the Bills then you need to find a new offensive cord man. They also have gone under in 7 of 8 games this year and it's not like the Packers are lighting it up. Yes they've had their moments but they don't have much of a run game and averaged a paltry 26 ppg this year. 24-10, 24-13 or somewhere along those lines. UNDER.

    1pm, Quietly the Texans are headed to about a 14-2 record. Maybe 13-3. This is a good team and their only loss was to a p!ssed off discount double check. The Bills can't stop anyone from scoring and when they play good teams they get blown out. It's that simple. I hate laying big numbers but the Texans should have little problems with the Bills. The Bills have beat the Chiefs, the Browns, and the Cardinals. Really? This game has blow out written all over it. I know it's a large number but how are the Bills going to stop the Texans running game from scoring a lot of TD's? Oh yeah, the Texans defense is nasty. 37-14.

    1pm, I like the over in this game but I don't like taking two sides of one play and I think the line of given 3 holds more value. This is a big game for the Redskins. They have lost 3 of 4 and pretty much have to win this game against one of the worst teams in football. The Panthers are frustrating huh? Newton is so gifted but he is also a basket case and so is their offense. LaFell is out for this game (most likely) and that will play a roll. Same basic quarterbacks on same basic teams but the difference is the Skins can run the ball where as the Panthers have had a hard time running because teams know how to play Newton now and will let him try and beat them all day long. This game will be close but I think the value is with the Redskins, I see something like 35-27.

    1pm, Another case of a pretty darn good team playing against an average one. Da Bears defense is elite and their taken for granted. Not only that but the offenses best weapon is also the defense. They score TD's almost as frequently as Cutler does. Not a big fan of him but he'll do enough to get into the end zone enough for his defense to take over. Matt Hasselback is 54 years old and likes to apple turnovers. Disaster time. 23-7 dabears!

    8pm, you guys will notice that I am not putting a "golden ticket" pick in today. Don't want to jinx any of my plays and the golden ticket has been getting squished so I punched it. Last pick is another example of what the he!l is Vegas thinking?? I don't know, maybe I am dead wrong here but how the f*ck is Atlanta only laying 3 1/2 to the Cowgirls. They girls just fought back tooth and nail in a divisional game and STILL lost only to have to travel to play the only team still in the NFL that has yet to lose. Matty Ice is just sick and twisted at home and the Cowgirls are like watching a bad soap opera. Players yelling at players, Romo throwing record amounts of picks (he stinks BTW), Jerry Jones pacing in the background. This team reminds my of the 1980's Yankees. America's team stinks. Sunday Night football, looking to stay undefeated the Birds are focused and ready to go. This game will be a lot like the Giants game for the Cowboys but in the end they will lose....again. Line movement scares me a little but that's just typical Cowboys traffic. Falcons take this one 31-24.

    Sunday's NFL picks:

    Cards/Packers under 43 1/2
    Texans -10
    Redskins -3
    Bears -3 1/2
    Falcons -3 1/2

    Good Luck to everyone today, tickets please!
    crackerjack 11-04-2012 12:58 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.96 (total posts: 3)
    9     4

    CORRECTION WALLY! Pittsburgh is NOT 23rd againts the rush! They are 9th everyone!!
    chuckster 11-04-2012 12:47 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.90 (total posts: 4)
    179     57

    @theguru66: No apologies needed sir, hope you and your family rebound quickly. All the best to ya'll...... Chuckster.
    theguru66 11-04-2012 12:42 am xxx.xxx.xxx.190 (total posts: 295)
    49     20

    Apologies passengers, I have been a mess lately here with the storm really effecting me and my family. I don't want to bore you with my sob story but hope to get "back on track" soon. I will be doing a NFL write up tonight so stay tuned.
    Bet master 11-04-2012 12:33 am xxx.xxx.xxx66.7 (total posts: 1)
    4     7

    What the NFL pick guy
    BHPicks 11-03-2012 11:54 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 29)
    5     65

    CLEAN SWEEP IN THE PREMIUM PICKS!!!!! Finally a GREAT day in the NCAAF as we gave you the best edge on the top matchups going 4-1! We are ready for another big day this time in the NFL where we have a 68% win percentage at 40-19-2 for the season. Make sure to join us today as we know the NFL better than any handicapper around! We continue to pick winners in every sport consistently and it will continue tonight and all year long! We are always giving you the best edge to every games here at BHPicks!

    TONIGHT's PICKS WERE:

    Nebraska - Michigan State Under 44.5
    Georgia -14
    Pittsburgh +17
    Oklahoma State - Kansas State Over 66
    Alabama - LSU Under 41

    More winners in the NFL tomorrow at 12PM!
    chuckster 11-03-2012 11:46 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.90 (total posts: 4)
    5     6

    percent completion QBHey folks, out of town at the moment but had to post on this subject. The number one thing that drives me nuts in college football is the over hype of cetain players. For instance the Bama/Tigers game, pre game hype had the Bama QB the second comming of Christ. Well for the vast majority of this game it has been the Tiger QB that has shined. I understand that you got to go by stats, but how in the hell can a 49 percent completion QB (LSU) be overwellming a 68 percent completion QB (Bama) ??????????? I had no dogs in this fight, but all I know is in the NFL, if you had that big a discrepency, most times your way better QB is the way to go. Anyway Congrats to all winners today, I will post my final NFL plays early Sunday. GLTA.
    omie_g 11-03-2012 11:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx3.55 (total posts: 1)
    7     8

    Walter, I can't don't agree when you say about the Giants "This game means nothing to them." I feel it means a lot to the Giants emotionally to put on a good performance for their city.

    If you recall the Heat vs Knicks game yesterday, Miami came out flat and looked distracted while the Knicks seemed focused. I think we'll see something similar out the of Giants game tomorrow.

    Should be a good game though.


    NFL Free Agents - April 17


    2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 17


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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