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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



    Leave a comment

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    Dangers 12-17-2011 10:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.249 (total posts: 1)
    23     16

    Anybody who took Tampa deserve to lose there money !! It wasn't a fluke them giving up 41 pts to the jags ! They're far and away the worst team in the comp
    big ryan 12-17-2011 10:26 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.143 (total posts: 12)
    17     12

    Tampa is gutless. I'm so sick of watching Tony Romo having 8 sec to throw the ball every drop back. i thought after giving up 40 to the Jags they might show some balls but apparently they have been castrated and their coach is a retard. i love how everyone keeps betting chalk laying over a touchdown in all of these prime time games and they are all hitting!!!!!joe public is feeling very sharp these days...
    Zack 12-17-2011 09:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.19 (total posts: 1)
    14     15

    What are the locks for tomorrow fellas?
    Guruball 12-17-2011 09:08 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.60 (total posts: 1)
    15     15

    Plays of the day

    DAL 10 units
    UNDER 10 units
    LAF 5 units


    Had Temple and barley got the over with the 2pt conversion! Also have Utah st and a little on the under! Lers get that paper, Christmas i around the corner!
    GLTA!!


    #Guruball#49er
    Erik, San Diego 12-17-2011 06:50 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.55 (total posts: 1)
    39     24

    @ Moses

    Yeah, not only that but how bout there, their & they're? The education system started breaking down in this country once the government got involved with the DOE.
    Moses 12-17-2011 05:26 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.206 (total posts: 5)
    35     18

    It's amazing how far some have gotten without knowing the difference between "your" and "you're."
    Newbie 12-17-2011 04:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.249 (total posts: 171)
    16     13

    @Legendary Dynamo: Vikings are +9 now! Did something happen to their team?
    Flyers 1 12-17-2011 04:16 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.130 (total posts: 49)
    15     22

    Perfect ATS Winning Trends

    CAR 10-0 DEC: RD off div game
    0-6 non conf dog 8 <
    CLE 0-5 RD < 7 off SU loss vs nonn div opp off SU win
    DAL 0-12 DEC: off SU fav loss vs opp w/revenge
    DEN 0-11 DEC: off SU win vs opp off SU win w/revenge
    GB 10-0 vs AFC West opp
    HOU 0-7 vs .400 < non conf opp
    KC 8-0 O/U vs 1.000 opp game 2 >
    0-6 home after score 10 <
    MIA 8-0 RD < 4
    8-0 DEC: dogs off SUATS loss vs opp off SU loss
    8-0 off DD ATS loss vs div opp off DD ATS loss
    0-8 DEC: RF vs div opp
    MINN 0-5 dog < 7 vs opp off BB SU wins
    NE 7-0 O/U RF 8 >
    NYG 8-0 O/U after score 35 >
    NYJ 6-0 off BB SUATS wins vs opp off SU dog win
    0-7 non conf dog 4 >
    OAK 0-14 favs off non div and BB SU losses
    0-7 non conf dog 10 < off SUATS loss
    PITT 0-11 DEC: away vs opp off SUATS away loss
    SF 10-0 off SU fav loss
    WASH 9-0 DIV: away vs opp off away game

    DJ Dana 12-17-2011 03:20 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.167 (total posts: 29)
    16     12

    I think the Cowboys roll and cover that spread tonight. To be on the safe side I'm teasing it down to 6 and 6.5 pts on a couple separate bets. The reason behind this is I really believe TB has quit on their coach and packed up the season (they've quit in 2 games this year: once in SF and last week against Jax). They clearly do not care and guys like Blount and Talib are cancers to their team).
    Gator 12-17-2011 02:15 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.208 (total posts: 36)
    13     13

    ....add BYU -4.5...

    ....this is strictly a Vegas line movement play....line opened at -3 and public is hammering Baylor yet the line keeps moving backwards....something is up and I'm gonna bet on the Vegas side and take BYU....word...
    cmon 12-17-2011 01:55 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.217 (total posts: 1)
    19     19

    I think if Vegas wanted the public to take Tampa they would move the line to 9. 80% on the cowboys. I like Tampa and under.
    Gator 12-17-2011 01:29 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.208 (total posts: 36)
    22     16

    ....and for any College Bowlers I really like Utah State -1.5...

    Didn't run any numbers in that as College Football isn't really my thing but in the past I have had a lot of success betting strictly on teams who are pumped up about being at a certain bowl vs teams that are dissapointed being in the bowl game that they made. This game fits that model perfectly....
    Chad 12-17-2011 12:55 pm xxx.xxx.xxx1.77 (total posts: 82)
    18     15

    As talented as the Cowboys are, don't they always seem to disappoint ATS? I think Tampa Bay will relish in the spoiler role. TB +7 for me tonight
    Gator 12-17-2011 12:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.208 (total posts: 36)
    31     16

    Sweat Barometer at a very pedestrian 3-2 thus far...first Saturday to try it out though...big day today hopefully or else back to the drawing board...here's today's plays...

    St Joes -3.5
    Indiana -9.5*
    Denver -4
    Cal Poly +1.5

    *Really like the Indy game...wish it was on their actual home court but they will still have the home crowd...great SB team and Notre Dame is an abysmal SB team and hopefully still overrated in Vegas and with the public....we shall see...word...
    chuckster 12-16-2011 11:50 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.76 (total posts: 1)
    11     11

    Played a 3 team ten point open tease today with Bears/Seahawks game UNDER 45.5 and Raiders/Lions game OVER 37.5 one open spot. Waiting for line to come up for Steelers Niners game. If total is not stupid low, I'm thinking tease it up and going UNDER. GLTA.


    2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 25


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2012): 1-0 (+$100)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2012): 0-0 ($0)
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    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2012): -$400

    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
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    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-8 (W2)
    Bears: 6-10 (L1)
    Bucs: 8-7 (L1)
    49ers: 8-10 (W1)
    Eagles: 8-8 (L1)
    Lions: 8-7 (L2)
    Falcons: 4-12 (L4)
    Cardinals: 11-5 (W3)
    Giants: 6-9 (L6)
    Packers: 7-11 (L1)
    Panthers: 9-7 (W4)
    Rams: 9-7 (L1)
    Redskins: 9-8 (L1)
    Vikings: 6-10 (W1)
    Saints: 7-9 (W2)
    Seahawks: 9-9 (L3)
    Bills: 6-10 (L3)
    Bengals: 8-8 (W1)
    Colts: 9-8 (L2)
    Broncos: 4-13 (L1)
    Dolphins: 9-6 (W1)
    Browns: 7-8 (W1)
    Jaguars: 7-9 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (L1)
    Jets: 8-8 (L1)
    Ravens: 12-8 (W2)
    Texans: 9-7 (W1)
    Chiefs: 8-8 (W2)
    Patriots: 10-7 (W1)
    Steelers: 7-8 (W1)
    Titans: 8-8 (L1)
    Raiders: 6-10 (L1)
    Divisional: 42-50 (2011: 48-43)
    2x Game Edge: 20-18 (2011: 21-22)
    2x Psych Edge: 28-31 (2011: 29-23)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-49 (2011: 49-55)
    2x Trend Edge: 28-31 (2011: 20-24)
    Double Edge: 6-17 (2011: 11-6)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011: 1-0)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
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    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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