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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2012



NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 3-4-1 (-$380)

NFL Picks (2012): 1-2-1 (-$350)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't put too much stock into these preseason games. He's coming off a win, so maybe he'll take it easy. Mike Munchak, on the other hand, has shown that he cares more. There's not a big sample size though, which is why I'm making this a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 8-15 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Munchak is 4-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Cardinals 16
    Titans -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-0)
    Line: Browns by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Eagles just played Monday in what was their dress rehearsal. They'll be sitting their starters. The Browns, as a young team, can't really afford to do that. I think that gives them an edge, especially considering that they're coming off much more rest.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Andy Reid is 23-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games (3-10 in Week 4).
  • Pat Shurmur is 3-3 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Eagles 13
    Browns -3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New England Patriots (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
    Line: Patriots by 6.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Patriots sat all of their starters Monday night, so they're going to treat this game as their dress rehearsal. Greg Schiano hasn't shown that he cares about preseason contests, so New England might be able to win easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 29-23 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-6 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 1-1 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Buccaneers 17
    Patriots -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)
    Line: Bills by 1.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin loves winning preseason games. Chan Gailey doesn't. The one thing keeping me from making this a huge play is that Gailey is 2-0 in Week 3. However, he beat Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio in those contests, and those coaches definitely didn't take their matchup as seriously as Tomlin will.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 17-6 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 3-7 in preseason games.
  • Chan Gailey is 2-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Bills 20
    Steelers +1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300



    Leave a comment

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    PureLock fan 11-10-2012 10:15 am xxx.xxx.xxx.235 (total posts: 1)
    4     16

    Don't leave my man....keep posting. I've been following all your picks since last week...you are awesome.
    shexxx 11-10-2012 10:09 am xxx.xxx.xxx.242 (total posts: 1)
    4     25

    don't leave purelock, you're the biggest studd out here right now...pls send your locks of the day. thanks!
    GURUBALL 11-10-2012 09:31 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.33 (total posts: 261)
    111     4

    WON A GOOD AMOUNT LAST WEEK, SO IM BACK ON THE POST! LETS START OFF THIS WINNING WEEKEND CORRECT.

    (MIA CANES +1.5) 10 Units

    GLTA!
    Tanman 11-10-2012 08:09 am xxx.xxx.xxx.241 (total posts: 3)
    14     13

    @Purelock - I appreciate you dude. U have had a pretty amazing streak this week on College fb. I along with 94% of the betting public thought Pitt was the right side last night but u had it right. Tight work!
    PureLock 11-10-2012 07:04 am xxx.xxx.xxx.218 (total posts: 236)
    45     7

    I don't think people are appreciate what I posted my picks here. Alright, then from now on, I'm out. Good luck all, no more posted.
    eddycash 11-10-2012 06:50 am xxx.xxx.xxx.107 (total posts: 8)
    43     4

    @Ram Man. All online casinos are rigged, there is no randomization program that can duplicate the pure moment of chance in reality. Never play casino games online.
    Ram Man 11-10-2012 04:53 am xxx.xxx.xxx5.90 (total posts: 8)
    3     7

    Heed my words. Stay out of the online casinos. They are flat rigged. At least the one at JustBet is (who Walt promoted). I just lost $30 in video poker...$30 in slots and $180 in Blackjack. And I was mostly playing $1-$2 hands in Blackjack and 25-75 cent plays in the other two. I was out 21'd by a ratio of about 9:1. I think I won 3 hands in a row once in three hours. Hope I get them back with one of the 7 parlays I've got going this weekend.
    eddycash 11-10-2012 01:09 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.71 (total posts: 49)
    4     6

    Welcome back guru66, I've missed you bro! Today was my first losing day since last friday, such a nice run. I've noticed when I post my picks I do horrible, but when I don't I win often. Wierd. If gsw covers tonight I'll be even..
    PureLock 11-10-2012 12:39 am xxx.xxx.xxx8.29 (total posts: 98)
    69     20

    :) Big smile for me tonight, I hit almost all my picks just lost the wizards. I hope all people fallowing me feel good tonight. I'm sorry to whom faded me. I'm sick of college football picks, didn't lost one game yet...... Finally I play the UNDER and hit big tonight people Smile!!!!!!!!!!!!! I see all you tomorrow. Good night all
    PureLock 11-10-2012 12:39 am xxx.xxx.xxx8.29 (total posts: 98)
    55     15

    :) Big smile for me tonight, I hit almost all my picks just lost the wizards. I hope all people fallowing me feel good tonight. I'm sorry to whom faded me. I'm sick of college football picks, didn't lost one game yet...... Finally I play the UNDER and hit big tonight people Smile!!!!!!!!!!!!! I see all you tomorrow. Good night all
    theguru66 11-10-2012 12:35 am xxx.xxx.xxx.137 (total posts: 5)
    3     4

    I don't know what's worse, losing my 39 with the Magic or the Suns coming back from 20 down only to miss 2 free throws in the final half minute to win by 2 just missing the spread by 1. Ouch.
    Ram Man 11-10-2012 12:21 am xxx.xxx.xxx5.90 (total posts: 8)
    16     5

    Some great trend numbers from Mark Lawrence Against the Spread....

    Alabama vs. Texas A&M

    *Tex AM is 1-7 ATS as a dog after a win.
    *2-16 ATS vs. undefeated teams on the road
    *2-27 when they lose outright as a rod dog....0-15 if they also won their last game.

    UNLV @ Colorado St
    *UNLV has lost their last 20 on the road and 43 of their last 46. Why are they favored???

    NFL

    Bears vs. Texans
    *Lovie Smith is 0-6 ATS after scoring 40+ points
    *Texans 7-0-1 vs. NFC teams off back-to-back wins.

    STL @ SF
    *Under is 4-0 this season when the home team is a double-digit favorite. (works for Bills/Pats too).
    *Since 1994, when two teams are coming off a bye, the Under is 8-0.
    *Under is 8-0 when a team is coming off a division road win and scored 20+ pts and gave up 3 or less (SF).
    *Under is 9-0 when a division home favorite of 14 or less points has a Monday Night game the following week.

    http://marclawrenceradio.com/
    theguru66 11-09-2012 10:50 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.137 (total posts: 5)
    6     4

    In the immortal words of Warner Wolf...if you had the Magic and 38 1/2....you LOST!! HAHAHA, no way to predict that the Magic would score less then 70 points at home. Got lucky with the Bucks/Wizards over with a lot of fouling at the end and the Knicks game should sore over, fingers crossed. However, the Panthers are getting smacked around but the show must go on and I have some late plays in the association...

    10pm; who doesn't think the Spurs are going to completely shut down the Kings tonight? The Kings have a hard time scoring as it is and the Spurs should clamor down in this game and win by at least 10-15. This game should go under as well.

    10:35pm; Denver has played one game at home and Utah stinks on the road. Their 0-3 and I don't think they'll get their first win tonight, now do the Nuggets cover? I think they do as they win by 8.

    10:35pm; shootout at the Staples Center as a new coach for the Lakers means forget about defense and just out score the other team, both teams in the 100's over 198.

    Recap:

    Spurs -6 under 199
    Nuggets -5 1/2
    Warriors/Lakers over 198

    Good luck!
    RJHM 11-09-2012 10:23 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.10 (total posts: 2)
    5     4

    Wow the suns really showed up ready to go for this game. That's just embarrassing.
    theguru66 11-09-2012 09:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.137 (total posts: 5)
    4     6

    Ok so the Magic are getting destroyed by the Nets so that didn't work out to well but I have a few more plays that I like tonight...

    9pm; Phoenix has shown nothing this year so far but did beat up on the Bobcats the last time out and should have some confidence going back home to play the Cavs in the midst of a long road trip. It's a 3 point spread which means Vegas thinks that these two teams would be even on a neutral court. I think they are better then the Cavs so I'm willing to lay the 3. I have the Suns 9 points better at 107-98, Suns treating the home crowd to the victory.

    Good Luck.



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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
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    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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